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Principles of Macroeconomics and Impact on Capital Markets Singapore ACADEMY Toronto Boston London New York Paris Principles Of Macroeconomics And Impact On Capital Markets Singapore South Africa Melbourne academy.bcaresearch.com At the end of the course you have a very good idea of macroeconomic complexities and potential pitfalls, the right way of looking at markets, and the right variables to look at for macro research. – Jean Pierre Lacombe, Chief of Global Markets & Research, IFC at World Bank As a participant in the CFA Institute Approved-Provider program, BCA Research Inc. has determined that this program qualifies for 16 hours. If you are a CFA Institute member, CE credit for your participation in this program will be automatically recorded in your CE tracking tool. ACADEMY Course Overview Macro directly impacts all financial assets. Yet the various relationships between the economy and markets are often overlooked or misunderstood by investors and this leads to an increased risk of factors undermining portfolio returns. The BCA Academy focuses on teaching the analytical methods and investment strategies developed at BCA Research over the past 65 years. BCA is a leading independent provider of global investment research. Participants in our courses learn techniques that will enable them to interpret data and important economic developments from the perspective of an investment professional. In addition to learning how to read major economic trends, delegates also explore how movements in certain assets can influence returns in other financial assets. Participants will look at important and interesting questions, such as why a strong currency implies lower bond yields, and how lower interest rates can boost equity multiples. Our courses teach simple and accessible methods that are critical to understanding how markets work. Course Description Course Highlights Include: The first day of this course emphasizes the fundamental D How to evaluate an economy using a macro framework macroeconomic concepts that drive financial markets. D The importance of business cycle dynamics Students will begin by learning how to assess whether D Why debt is important, what is the debt supercycle, the economy is operating above or below trend; a critical and how does it impact the components of growth question for both the macro outlook and financial asset performance. A thorough examination of debt and credit D What factors most influence fiscal and monetary policy will follow, since these factors are often described as the D Dissecting the relationship between policy and growth “lifeblood” of an economy. Lastly, our instructors will D The fundamental drivers of the major risk asset classes consider how policy can impact both the economy and D Practical applications in FX, bond, and equity markets markets, as well as how investors can gauge the durability of certain fiscal and monetary policies. D Understanding the feedback loops that link the economy, policy, and financial assets On the second day, students will learn BCA Research’s time- tested analytical framework to examine the three major Who Should Attend? financial markets: currencies, fixed-income, and equities. Valuations, liquidity, and momentum strategies will be applied This course is ideally suited for: to each of these markets, including real-time examples that D Buy-side investment managers (i.e., research staff, demonstrate the value of this multi-faceted approach. portfolio managers, quantitative analysts) Case studies will be used during the two-day session to D Sell-side fixed-income, currency, and equity sales ensure that participants are effectively learning how to apply people; traders and dealers the various concepts to real situations. The final session D Associates and analysts in research departments will conclude with a look at the bull market in bonds and D Mid-level equity and fixed-income strategists stocks from the early 1980s, in addition to a general market Asset allocators overview from the course instructors. D CLASS PROFILE Course Locations New York - September 27-28, 2017 Chicago - October 23-24, 2017 Paris - November 13-14, 2017 Toronto - February 26-27, 2018 Melbourne - March 12-14, 2018 Singapore - March 19-20, 2018 Boston - May 7-8, 2018 London - May 21-22, 2018 OTHER (26%) HEAD/DIRECTOR (23%) South Africa - June 11-12, 2018 CEO (7%) CIO (18%) PORTFOLIO MANAGER (34%) ANALYST (50%) [email protected] 1-800-724-2942 academy.bcaresearch.com Principles Of Macroeconomics And Impact On Capital Markets Registration commences at 7:45 AM on Day 1. AGENDA Course runs from 8:00 AM-6:00 PM. DAY 1 DAY 2 7:45 REGISTRATION 8:00 - 9:40 Session 2:1 - BCA’S ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK Valuation 8:00 - 9:15 Session 1:1 - THE “MAP” D D Liquidity Review of economic concepts D D Momentum D The “Economic Map” CASE STUDY 1: 9:40 - 10:00 BREAK EM Bull Market (2001-2011) 10:00 - 12:00 Session 2:2 - FOREIGN EXCHANGE 9:15 - 11:00 BREAK D Regime types D Valuations 9:30 - 11:00 Session 1:2 - THE ECONOMY D Determining the cyclical outlook D Economic Forecasting 101 D Momentum and technicals Is the economy below or above trend GDP D CASE STUDY 5: (gauging the output gap) Dollar Bull Markets (Early 1980s, Late 1990s, Today) D Cyclical sectors of the economy (consumer and corporate) D Profits, wages, employment, inflation, and the Phillips curve 12:00 - 1:00 LUNCH CASE STUDY 2: 1:00 - 2:50 Session 2:3 - BONDS Examining The Secular Stagnation Thesis D Real rates, inflation expectations, and the term premium 11:00 - 11:15 BREAK D Valuation determinants D Inflation and the economy 11:15 - 12:30 Session 1:3 - DEBT D Fiscal and monetary policy D What is debt? Factors encouraging debt accumulation D Corporate bonds, credit derivatives, and structured products D How debt affects the real economy D Banking and money growth 2:50 - 3:10 BREAK D Debt reduction strategies 3:10 - 5:00 Session 2:4 - EQUITIES CASE STUDY 3: Valuation techniques: multiples, fair value, equity risk U.S. Housing Bubble – Causes And Consequences D premium and spreads 12:30 - 1:30 LUNCH D Liquidity and cyclical outlook D Earnings interaction with growth, inflation, and policy 1:30 - 3:15 Session 1:4 - POLICY D Profit margins, yield curve, and sectors D A methodology for political analysis D Fiscal policy and the economy 5:00 - 5:30 Session 2:5 - BRINGING IT ALL TOGETHER D Monetary policy, the economy, and asset markets D Summary and conclusions D Liquidity trap and the zero lower bound CASE STUDY 6: Why Being Bullish in 1982 Paid Off CASE STUDY 4: Does QE Work? A Look At The Fed’s Experience 3:15 - 3:30 BREAK REGISTER NOW: academy.bcaresearch.com 3:30 - 5:30 Session 1:5 - EXTERNAL ACCOUNT Clients & CFA Charterholders $4,796 D Current account and the savings/investment balance Regular $5,995 D Implications for liquidity, growth, and exchange rates Additional Material Participants will receive reading materials that will supplement the in-class learning experience. Included in this package will be various case studies as well as seminal reports written by BCA Research over the past several decades. [email protected] 1-800-724-2942 academy.bcaresearch.com ACADEMY Course Instructors Jim Mylonas is a Chief Strategist with BCA Research. Jim has a cross-functional role that includes both shaping the research view while communicating this message to BCA clients. Jim joined BCA in 2011 with the Global Investment Strategy team and was also an integral part of launching the firm’s successfulGeopolitical Strategy group. Jim is the lead instructor of BCA’s macro training program. He has been quoted in various major newspapers and has published in peer-reviewed academic journals. Jim holds an Honors BA in economics and political science from the University of Toronto and an MA in international affairs from the Norman Paterson School at Carleton University. Mathieu Savary joined BCA Research in 2004 and is the Chief Strategist of the Foreign Exchange Strategy service. Previously at BCA, he was Senior Editor of the Global Investment Strategy service. Additionally, Mathieu has been one of the principal developers and is a lead instructor of BCA’s macro training program. He has also worked at Brandywine Global Investment Management. Mathieu has a BCom in Finance and Economics from McGill University and holds the CFA designation. Garry Evans joined BCA Research in August 2015 and is currently BCA’s Chief Strategist of our Global Asset Allocation and EM Equity Sector Strategy services. He was previously Managing Director and Global Head of Equity Strategy at HSBC, based in Hong Kong. During his 16 years at HSBC, Garry also worked as a Japan Strategist, Asia-Pacific Strategist, and Head of Research in both Tokyo and Hong Kong. Garry started his career at Euromoney Institutional Investor (BCA’s parent company) and was Editor of Euromoney Magazine from 1990 to 1998. He has an MA in Asian Studies from Cambridge University, and undertook postgraduate studies in economics at Kyoto University in Japan. Testimonials: Great refresher and extremely practical course covering everything that matters for understanding markets and macro. – Suhaib Jamjoom, Portfolio Manager at Passport Capital ...To walk behind the scenes and see how they go through their process is highly informative. – Thomas Barket, Former Partner at Graticule Asset Management Asia The last two days I really learned a lot of things from Mathieu and Jim…[They] helped me get a deeper understanding of the financial system in the last 200 years. – Cai Qing, Asset Allocation Analyst at China Investment Corporation Delegates increased their understanding
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