Challenges for numerical relativity and gravitational-wave source modeling
Emanuele Berti, Johns Hopkins University ICERM Workshop “Advances and challenges in computational relativity” September 14 2020 Focus of this talk: what improvements in numerical relativity do we need to test GR with binary black hole mergers?
“The binary black hole problem has been solved 15 years ago”
In general relativity, for comparable-mass nonspinning nonprecessing noneccentric binaries
(and I won’t talk about neutron stars…) What keeps me up at night: Systematic errors in GR: not good enough for LISA/CE/ET spectroscopy tests sky localization Identifying “best” beyond-GR theories: specific theories vs. parametrization Punchline: NR may guide theoretical work Group
GWIC prize 2016 GWIC prize 2017 Black hole spectroscopy: a null test EXPLORING THE STRING AXIVERSE WITH PRECISION ... PHYSICAL REVIEW D 83, 044026 (2011) after switching to the tortoise coordinate (14) and introduc- To relate the tunneling exponent with the rate of super- ing É r2 a2 1=2R the radial Eq. (12) takes the form of radiance instability let us consider again the energy flow the Schro¼ð¨dingerþ equationÞ Eq. (6). Integrating it over the horizon we obtain 2 d É dE 2 VÉ 0 (20) ! mw ! Y R r ; (23) dr2 À ¼ dt ¼ ð þ À Þ horizon j ð Þ ð þÞj à Z with the potential where E is the energy in the axion cloud. The energy is maximum in the Keplerian region, so that in the limit 2 2 2 4rgram! a m where we only keep track of the dependence on the ex- V ! À I ¼À þ r2 a2 2 ponent eÀ we can write ð þ Þ 2 2 2 2I 2 Á 2 l l 1 k a E R rc e R r ; ð þ Þþ /j ð Þj ’ j ð þÞj þ r2 a2 a þ r2 a2 and, consequently, to rewrite (23) as 2þ 2 þ 2 3r 4rgr a 3Ár À2 2þ2 2 2 3 : (21) dE 2I þ r a À r a const mw ! eÀ E: (24) ð þ Þ ð þ Þ dt ¼ Áð þ À Þ We include the !2 term in the definition of the poten- ðÀ Þ In other words, the WKB approximation for the super- tial, because even if we were to separate it, there would be a radiance rate gives1 residual dependence on !. We present the qualitative shape 2I of the potential V for a typical choice of parameters in À mw ! eÀ ; (25) Fig. 7. One can clearly see the potential well where the ¼ ð þ À Þ where the normalization prefactor is determined mainly by bound Keplerian orbits are localized and a barrier separat- the spread of the wave function in the classically allowed ing this region from the near-horizon region where super- region. We will limit ourself by calculating the exponential radiant amplification takes place. part À. We leave the technical details for the Appendix, and Consequently, the axion wave function at the horizon present only the final result here. Namely, the final answer r r (corresponding to r ) is suppressed relative for the tunneling integral in the extremal Kerr geometry to¼ theþ wave function in theà vicinity¼À1 of the Keplerian orbit takes the form by a tunneling exponent, I R r R rc eÀ ; I 2 2 1 ; (26) j ð þÞj’j ð Þj ¼ À ð À Þ where the tunneling integral I is pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi which translates in the following superradiant rate, 2 2 r r2 r2 pV r a Ãð Þ 7 1 2 2 p2 7 1 3:7 I dr pV dr ð þ Þ ; (22) ÀWKB 10À rgÀ eÀ ð À Þ 10À rgÀ eÀ ; (27) ¼ r r1 à ¼ r1 ffiffiffiffi Á Z Ãð Þ ffiffiffiffi Z where we took the large limitffiffi in (26) and chose the with r1;2 being the boundaries of the classically forbidden prefactor to match the low results of Sec. II B (this value region. We will only follow the leading exponential depen- also agrees with that of [19,32]). As we already said, the I dence on eÀ and do not aim at calculating the normaliza- exponent in (27) is larger than that in [19] by a factor of two. tion prefactor in front of the exponent. As explained in the Appendix, the rate (27) provides an Quasinormal (and superradiant) modes upper envelope for superradiance rates at different l in the Ergo-region Barrier Potential Well region large limit. We have presented (27) by a dotted line in Exponential Fig. 5; it agrees reasonably well with the previous =l 1 growth region “Mirror” results. at r~1/µ
III. DYNAMICS OF SUPERRADIANCE Potential Let us turn now to discussing the dynamical consequen- ces of the superradiant instability. One important property of the rates calculated in Sec. II is that the time scale for the
Black Hole Horizon r* [Arvanitaki+Dubovsky, 1004.3558] development of the instability is quite slow compared to Quasinormal modes: Massive scalar field: the natural dynamical scale rg close to the black hole FIG. 7 (color online). The shape of the radial Schroedinger 1 7 • Ingoing waves at the horizon, • Superradiance: black hole bomb when horizon, ÀsrÀ > 10 rg. Consequently, in many cases non- potential for the eigenvalue problem in the rotating black hole linear effects, both gravitational, and due to axion self- outgoing waves at infinitybackground. Superradiant0 044026-9 Schwarzschild and Kerr quasinormal mode spectrum • One mode fixes mass and spin – and the whole spectrum! • N modes: N tests of GR dynamics…if they can be measured • Needs SNR>50 or so for a comparable mass, nonspinning binary merger [Berti-Cardoso-Will, gr-qc/0512160; EB+, gr-qc/0707.1202] Spectroscopy of Kerr black holes with Earth- and space-based interferometers Emanuele Berti1,2, Alberto Sesana3, Enrico Barausse4,5, Vitor Cardoso2,6, Krzysztof Belczynski7 1 Department of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Mississippi, University, MS 38677, USA 2 CENTRA, Departamento de F´ısica, Instituto Superior T´ecnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Avenida Rovisco Pais 1, 1049 Lisboa, Portugal 3 School of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK 4 Sorbonne Universit´es, UPMC Universit´eParis 6, UMR 7095, Institut d’Astrophysique de Paris, 98 bis Bd Arago, 75014 Paris, France 5 CNRS, UMR 7095, Institut d’Astrophysique de Paris, 98 bis Bd Arago, 75014 Paris, France 6 Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics, 31 Caroline Street North Waterloo, Ontario N2L 2Y5, Canada and 7 Astronomical Observatory, Warsaw University, Al. Ujazdowskie 4, 00-478 Warsaw, Poland We estimate the potential of present and future interferometric gravitational-wave detectors to test the Kerr nature of black holes through “gravitational spectroscopy,” i.e. the measurement of multiple quasinormal mode frequencies from the remnant of a black hole merger. Using population synthesis models of the formation and evolution of stellar-mass black hole binaries, we find that Voyager-class interferometers will be necessary to perform these tests. Gravitational spectroscopy in the local Universe may become routine with the Einstein Telescope, but a 40-km facility like Cosmic Explorer is necessary to go beyond z 3. In contrast, eLISA-like detectors should carry out a few – or even hundreds – of these tests every⇠ year, depending on uncertainties in massive black hole formation models. Many space-based spectroscopical measurements will occur at high redshift, testing the strong gravity dynamics of Kerr black holes in domains where cosmological corrections to general relativity (if they occur in nature) must be significant. Introduction. The first binary black hole (BH) mer- GW150914 raised the question whether current detect- ger signal detected by the LIGO Scientific Collaboration, ors at design sensitivity should routinely observe ring- GW150914 [1], had a surprisingly high combined signal- down signals loud enough to perform gravitational spec- to-noise ratio (SNR) of 24 in the Hanford and Livingston troscopy. Leaving aside conceptual issues about ruling detectors. The quasinormal mode signal (“ringdown”) out exotic alternatives [15–17], here we use our current from the merger remnant is consistent with the predic- best understanding of the astrophysics of stellar-mass tions of general relativity (GR) for a Kerr BH, but it was and supermassive BHs to compute the rates of events observed with a relatively low SNR ⇢ 7 [2]. The large that would allow us to carry out spectroscopical tests. masses of the binary components [3] have⇠ interesting im- Below we provide the details of our analysis, but the plications for the astrophysics of binary BH formation [4], main conclusionsBridging canthe be mass understood gap: gravitational relying onwave the noiseastronomy in the 2030s 16 and the detection placed some constraints on the merger power10 spectral° densities (PSDs) Sn(f) of present and fu- rates of BH binaries in the Universe [5–8]. ture detectors,17 as shown and briefly reviewed in Fig. 1, 100M 10° f = 170.2 Hz and simple back-of-the-envelope estimates. M LISA Pathfinder was successfully launched in Decem- 18 ) (Hz 21 2 and dimensionless10° spin, M and j = J/M , can be com- idea is that the dominant ` = m = 2 resonant frequency f ( putedn using22 the fittingLISA formulasAdLIGO in [26] andCE1 [27], respect- and damping time can be used to determine the rem- S 10° 2 ively (see also [28,N2A5 29]). The ringdownA+ SNRCE2⇢ widecan be es- nant’s mass M and dimensionless spin j = J/M (we p 23 timated10 by° followingN2A2 [14]. IncludingA++ redshiftCE2 factors narrow and adopt geometrical units G = c = 1 throughout this Let- N2A1 Vrt ET-B 24 ter.) In GR, all subdominant mode frequencies (e.g. the substituting10° the EuclideanO1 distanceVoyager r by theET-D luminosity distance D25L as appropriate,O2 Eq. (3.16) of [14] implies modes with ` = m = 3 and ` = m = 4 [11]) are then 10° that ⇢ is well approximated4 3 by 2 1 0 1 2 3 uniquely determined by M and j. The detection of sub- 10° 10° 10° 10° 10 10 10 10 dominant modes requires high SNR, but each mode will 1/2 f (Hz) 8 M 3✏ provide one (or more) tests of the Kerr nature of the rem- ⇢ = eq z rd , (1) D 5 S (f ) nant [12]. As first pointed out by Detweiler in 1980, grav- LFlmn n lmn [EB+, 1605.09286] itational waves allow us to do BH spectroscopy: “After where Mz = M(1 + z). Fits of the mass-independent di- the advent of gravitational wave astronomy, the observa- mensionless frequency lmn(j) 2⇡Mzflmn and quality tion of these resonant frequencies might finally provide F ⌘ factor Qlmn(j) are given in Eqs. (E1) and (E2) of [14]. direct evidence of BHs with the same certainty as, say, The geometrical factor eq = 1 for Michelson interfero- the 21 cm line identifies interstellar hydrogen” [13]. meters with orthogonal arms, while eq = p3/2 for an Such high SNRs are known to be achievable with an eLISA-like detector (where the angle between the arms eLISA-like detector [14]. The surprisingly high SNR of is 60 ). This expression involves the non sky-averaged 33 Earth vs. space-based: ringdown detections and black hole spectroscopy 106 103 M3 M3 Q3nod 4L Q3nod 4L Q3d 4L Q3d 4L 105 M10 M10 PopIII 4L PopIII 4L M1 M1 Q3nod 6L Q3nod 6L 104 > 8 > GLRT Q3d 6L Q3d 6L PopIII 6L PopIII 6L > 8 > GLRT 103 102 102 101 events/year events/year 0 10 101 1 10 2 10 10 3 100 O1 O2 A+ Vrt ETB CE1 A++ CE2n N1A1 N1A2 N1A5 N2A1 N2A2 N2A5 ETDX CE2w Voyager AdLIGO [EB+, 1605.09286] FigureFigure 2. 2. Rates Rates of of binary binary BH BH mergers mergers that that yield yield detectable detectable ringdown ringdown signals signals (filled (filled symbols) symbols) and and allow allow for for spectroscopical spectroscopical teststests (hollow (hollow symbols). symbols). Left Left panel: panel: rates rates per per year year for for Earth-based Earth-based detectors detectors of of increasing increasing sensitivity. sensitivity. Right Right panel: panel: rates rates per per yearyear for for 6-link 6-link (solid) (solid) and and 4-link 4-link (dashed) (dashed) eLISA eLISA configurations configurations with with varying varying armlength armlength and and acceleration acceleration noise. noise. ofof BH-BH BH-BH merger merger rates, rates, and and therefore therefore model model M3 M3 should should M1M1 (M10, (M10, M3) M3) predict predict 3 3.0(2.0(2.5,.5, 0 0.57).57) events events per per year year bebe regarded regarded as as pessimistic pessimistic [8]. [8]. In In all all of of these these models models we we withwith detectable detectable ringdown ringdown in in O1; O1; 7.0 7.0 (5.8, (5.8, 1.1) 1.1) in in O2; O2; and and setset the the BH BH spins spins to to zero, zero, an an assumption assumption consistent consistent with with 4040 (35, (35, 5.2) 5.2) in in AdLIGO. AdLIGO. Model Model Q3d Q3d (Q3nod, (Q3nod, PopIII) PopIII) estimatesestimates from from GW150914 GW150914 [4]. [4]. Even Even in in the the unrealistic unrealistic predictspredicts 38 38 (533, (533, 13) 13) events events for for a a 6-link 6-link N2A5 N2A5 eLISA eLISA scenarioscenario where where all all BHs BHs in in the the Universe Universe were were maximally maximally missionmission lasting lasting 5 5 years, years, but but in in the the plot plot we we divided divided these these spinning,spinning, rates rates would would increase increase by by a a factor factor..33 (see (see Table Table numbersnumbers by by 5 5 to to facilitate facilitate a a more more fair fair comparison comparison in in terms terms 22 of of [5]). [5]). Massive Massive binaries binaries with with ringdowns ringdowns detectable detectable by by ofof events eventsperper year year.. Earth-basedEarth-based interferometers interferometers could could also also be be produced produced by by BHBH spectroscopy. spectroscopy.SupposeSuppose that that we we know know that that a a signal signal otherother mechanisms mechanisms (see (see e.g. e.g. [34–37]), [34–37]), and and therefore therefore our our containscontains two two (or (or possibly possibly more) more) ringdown ringdown modes. modes. We We ratesrates should should be be seen seen as as lower lower bounds. bounds. expectexpect the the weaker weaker mode mode to to be be hard hard to to resolve resolve if if its its amp- amp- ToTo estimate estimate ringdown ringdown rates rates from from massive massive BH BH mergers mergers litudelitude is is low low and/or and/or if if the the detector’s detector’s noise noise is is large. large. The The detectabledetectable by by eLISA eLISA we we consider consider the the same same three three models models criticalcritical SNR SNR for for the the second second mode mode to to be be resolvable resolvable can can (PopIII,(PopIII, Q3nod Q3nod and and Q3d) Q3d) used used in in [18] [18] and and produced produced with with bebe computed computed using using the the generalized generalized likelihood likelihood ratio ratio test test thethe semi-analytical semi-analytical approach approach of of [38] [38] (with (with incremental incremental (GLRT)(GLRT) [42] [42] under under the the following following assumptions: assumptions: (i) (i) using using improvementsimprovements described described in in [39–41]). [39–41]). These These models models were were otherother criteria, criteria, we we have have already already decided decided in in favor favor of of the the chosenchosen to to span span the the major major sources sources of of uncertainty uncertainty a a↵↵ect-ect- presencepresence of of one one ringdown ringdown signal; signal; (ii) (ii) the the ringdown ringdown fre- fre- inging eLISA eLISA rates, rates, namely namely (i) (i) the the nature nature of of primordial primordial BH BH quenciesquencies and and damping damping times, times, as as well well as as the the amplitude amplitude seedsseeds (light (light seeds seeds coming coming from from the the collapse collapse of of Pop Pop III III ofof the the dominant dominant mode, mode, are are known. known. Then Then the the critical critical starsstars in in model model PopIII; PopIII; heavy heavy seeds seeds originating originating from from pro- pro- SNRSNR⇢⇢GLRTGLRT toto resolve resolve a a mode mode with with either either``==mm=3=3 togalactictogalactic disks disks in in models models Q3d Q3d and and Q3nod), Q3nod), and and (ii) (ii) the the oror``==mm== 4 4 from from the the dominant dominant mode mode with with``==mm=2=2 delaydelay between between galaxy galaxy mergers mergers and and the the merger merger of of the the BHs BHs isis well well fitted, fitted, for for nonspinning nonspinning binary binary BH BH mergers, mergers, by by atat galactic galactic centers centers (model (model Q3d Q3d includes includes this this delay; delay; model model 22, ,33 1515.4597.4597 11.65242.65242 Q3nodQ3nod does does not, not, and and therefore therefore yields yields higher higher detection detection ⇢⇢GLRT == 17 17.687.687 + + ,, (2)(2) GLRT qq 11 qq rates).rates). In In all all three three models models the the BH BH spin spin evolution evolution is is fol- fol- 8383.5778.5778 4444.1125.1125 5050.1316.1316 lowedlowed self-consistently self-consistently [38, [38, 39]. 39]. For For each each event event in in the the ⇢⇢22, ,44 == 37 37.9181.9181 + + ++ ++ .(3).(3) GLRTGLRT qq qq22 qq33 catalogcatalog we we compute compute⇢⇢fromfrom Eq. Eq. (1), (1), where where✏✏rdrdisis rescaled rescaled byby a a spin-dependent spin-dependent factor factor as as necessary. necessary. TheseThese fits fits reproduce reproduce the the numerical numerical results results in in Fig. Fig. 9 9 of of DetectionDetection rates. rates.TheThe ringdown ringdown detection detection rates rates (events (events [42][42] within within 0 0.3%.3% when whenqq [1[1.01.01 100].100]. Spectroscopical Spectroscopical 2 perper year year with with⇢⇢>>88 in in a a single single detector) detector) predicted predicted by by teststests of of the the Kerr Kerr metric metric can can2 be be performed performed whenever whenever either either 2,23, 3 2,24, 4 modelsmodels M1, M1, M3, M3, M10 M10 (for (for stellar-mass stellar-mass BH BH binaries) binaries) and and modemode is is resolvable, resolvable, i.e. i.e.⇢⇢>>⇢⇢GLRT min(min(⇢⇢ ,,⇢⇢ ).). GLRT⌘ GLRTGLRT GLRTGLRT PopIII,PopIII, Q3d, Q3d, Q3nod Q3nod (for (for supermassive supermassive BH BH binaries) binaries) are are TheThe``==mm== 3 3 mode mode is is usually usually easier easier⌘ to to resolve resolve than than the the shownshown in in Fig. Fig. 2 2 with with filled filled symbols. symbols. For For example, example, models models ``==mm== 4 4 mode, mode, but but the the situation situation is is reversed reversed in in the the Multi-mode detectability: mass ratio and spin dependence Strongest spin dependence: [Baibhav+, 1710.02156] How many modes? Depends on spin. Best/worst case scenarios in LISA [Baibhav+EB, 1809.03500] SNR Including overtones is crucial, even in linear perturbation theory Leaver (1986): Green’s function in Schwarzschild. Overtones: agreement well before peak Zhang+: extension to Kerr (here for an ultrarelativistic infall along the z axis) 12 20 20 l=2, j=0 l=2, j=0.98 Numerical Numerical 15 n=0 15 n=0 n=1 n=1 n=2 n=2 E) n=3 E) 10 n=3 0 10 0 )/(m )/(m l l 5 5 Re(X Re(X 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 t-r* t-r* 50 l=3, j=0 50 [Zhang+, 1710.02156]l=3, j=0.98 40 Numerical 40 Numerical n=0 n=0 n=1 30 n=1 30 n=2 n=2 E) n=3 E) n=3 0 “Excitation20 factors” in Kerr known0 20 )/(m )/(m 10 l “Excitation10 coefficients” depend onl initial data: 0 0 Re(X difficult, unsolved problem for comparableRe(X -10 -mass mergers -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 [Leaver, PRD, 1986] -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 [EB+Cardoso-15 -10 -5 0, gr 5-qc/0605118] 10 15 20 25 t-r* t-r* FIG. 3. Sasaki-Nakamura wave function for an ultrarelativistic infall along the symmetry axis of a Kerr BH. Solid black lines are results from the numerical solution of the perturbation equations; the other lines are results obtained by summing different numbers of overtones. The upper panels refer to l =2,thelowerpanelstol =3.Theleftpanelscorrespondsto the Schwarzschild limit (j =0),andtherightpanelstoafast-spinningKerrBHwitha =0.49 (j =0.98). In this plot, as everywhere else in the paper, we use units 2M =1. Ψ must be understood as the Sasaki-Nakamura wave V. CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK function – against numerical gravitational waveforms ob- tained in this way. As in the Schwarzschild case, the In this paper we have implemented a new method, integrand appearing in the calculation of the Kerr ex- based on the MST formalism, to compute the excita- citation factors is, in general, divergent. The divergence tion factors B for Kerr QNMs. This method is simpler can be regularized following a procedure analogous to the q and more accurate than the method used by two of us Schwarzschild case (cf. Appendix A 2). in [2], allowing us to extend the calculation to higher Figure 3 confirms our basic findings from the nonrotat- angular multipoles l and to higher overtone numbers n. ing case: the convergence of the QNM expansion is not Tables of the excitation factors Bq in the Teukolsky and necessarily monotonic, and the excitation coefficient ex- Sasaki-Nakamura formalisms will be made publicly avail- pansion works better for higher values of l. Notice that a able online [39], in the hope to stimulate further research relatively small number of overtones is sufficient to repro- in this field. duce the numerical waveform at early times even when As a test of the method, we have computed the QNM the spin of the Kerr BH is rather large (j =0.98), so excitation coefficients for the classic problem of particles that one may in principle expect that a larger number of falling radially into the BH. We have compared the exci- overtones would be necessary (see e.g. [29, 54–57]). To tation coefficient expansion against numerical results for: our knowledge, the calculation presented in this Section (i) particles falling from rest (E = 1) into a Schwarzschild is the first concrete proof that an excitation-coefficient BH, (ii) large-energy particles (E = 10) falling into expansion is applicable and useful in the Kerr case: all a Schwarzschild BH, and (iii) ultrarelativistic particles calculations available in the literature so far were specific falling into a Kerr BH along the symmetry axis. In all to the Schwarzschild case (see e.g. [32, 33]). cases we found excellent agreement, validating the useful- 3 Systematic errors on QNM frequencies/mass+spin from SXS/PP waveforms 100 N =1 Top: N =2 1 10 N =3 real part (thick) 2 imaginary part (thin) 10 /