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Assessment of China's Anti-Satellite and Space Warfare Programs

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Assessment of China's Anti-Satellite and Space Warfare Programs AN ASSESSMENT OF CHINA’S ANTI-SATELLITE AND SPACE WARFARE PROGRAMS, POLICIES AND DOCTRINES Prepared for the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission by Michael P. Pillsbury, Ph.D. Report submitted to the Commission by the author on 19 January 2007 Disclaimer The research report was prepared at the request of the U.S.-China Commission to support its deliberations, and to promote greater public understanding of the issues addressed by the Commission in its ongoing assessment of U.S.-China economic relations and their implications for U.S. security, as mandated by Public Laws 106-398, 108-7, and 109-108. This report is based on information obtained by Dr. Pillsbury using open source documents. Placement of this report on the Commission’s Web Site does not imply an endorsement by the Commision or any individual Commissioner of the views or conclusions expressed in the report. 1 Table of Contents PART 1. OVERVIEW................................................................................................................................. 7 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................... 7 SUMMARY OF CHINESE RECOMMENDATIONS ON SPACE WEAPONIZATION ................................................. 9 NDU Book 2001 - Space War .............................................................................................................. 10 NDU Book 2002 - On Space Operations .............................................................................................11 NDU Book 2005 - Joint Space War Campaigns.................................................................................. 11 Exerpts from Journals and Articles ..................................................................................................... 12 CURRENT US VIEWS ON CHINA’S ASAT POLICY .................................................................................... 15 PRESENT LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT AND DEPLOYMENT OF CHINESE ASAT CAPABILITY......................... 18 China Denies Developing Anti-Satellite Laser [2006]........................................................................ 18 PART 2. THIRTY CHINESE RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SPACE WEAPONS .......................... 21 COVERT SPACE WEAPONS ........................................................................................................................ 21 - NDU Book 1 on Space War – Covert Space Weapons [2001].......................................................... 21 SPACE OPERATIONS .................................................................................................................................. 23 - NDU Book 2 on Space Operations [2002]........................................................................................ 23 ATTACKS TO DETER.................................................................................................................................. 23 - NDU Book 3 on Space Warfare Campaigns – Attacks to Deter [2005] ........................................... 23 CONSTRUCTING SPACE-BASED FIRE NETWORKS ...................................................................................... 23 ASAT FROM SHIPS AND SUBMARINES ...................................................................................................... 24 ORBITAL MISSILES TO ATTACK EARTH TARGETS .................................................................................... 30 PLASMA ATTACK AGAINST LOW-ORBIT SPY SATELLITES ...................................................................... 36 SATELLITES DESIGNED WITH STEALTH ..................................................................................................... 37 SPACE ELECTRONIC JAMMING .................................................................................................................. 38 SIX STUDIES ON JAMMING US CLASSIFIED DATA LINKS [JTIDS ] [2005] ................................................ 39 TEN STUDIES OF KINETIC KILL VEHICLES [2005]..................................................................................... 41 SATELLITE ATTACKS ON EARTH TARGETS [2005].................................................................................... 44 R&D ON FUTURE BEAM WEAPONS FOR ASAT MISSIONS ........................................................................ 45 PART 3. IMPLICATIONS TO GOALS OF A US-CHINA DIALOGUE ON SPACE WEAPONS . 48 PART 4. IMPLICATIONS FOR US POLICY ....................................................................................... 49 DOCUMENTARY APPENDIX ............................................................................................................... 54 BIBLIOGRAPHY OF CHINESE SOURCES ...................................................................................................... 54 Military Journals with Little Space Content........................................................................................ 54 List of 80 Chinese Space Journals & Websites....................................................................................55 BIBLIOGRAPHY ON SPACE ARMS CONTROL .............................................................................................. 71 THE AIRBORNE LASER NARROWS ITS BEAM ............................................................................................ 73 TOWARD A NEW LASER ERA.................................................................................................................... 73 US AEROSPACE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FUNDING TRENDS ......................................................... 75 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The first two parts of this study present the results of a survey of Chinese writings that discovered 30 proposals that China should acquire several types of anti satellite weapons. Many foreign observers have mistakenly claimed that China is a pacifistic nation and has no interest such weapons. The Director of the US National Reconnaissance Office Donald Kerr confirmed a Chinese laser had illuminated a US satellite in 2006. These skeptical observers dismissed that laser incident, but then appeared to be stunned by the reported Chinese destruction of a satellite January 11, 2007. China declined to confirm the event, but many foreign governments immediately protested,1 including Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada and Britain, while Russia’s defense minister suggested the report may not be fully accurate. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, while declining to confirm the incident, said other countries should not be alarmed. A US NSC spokesman said China fired a missile to destroy an orbiting weather satellite, making it the third country after the United States and the former Soviet Union to shoot down anything in space. If confirmed, the test would mean China could now theoretically shoot down spy satellites operated by other nations. Parts 3 and 4 of this study recommend policy measures the US and other nations may consider. The ten measures are: 1. Possible US Countermeasures – Awareness, Assessing Damage, Forensics, Counter Strikes Of the thirty Chinese proposals, one set would be particularly challenging to US military vulnerabilities in a crisis. In each of their books, Chinese Colonels Li, Jia and Yuan all advocated covert deployment of a sophisticated antisatellite weapon system to be used against United States in a surprise manner without warning. Even a small scale antisatellite attack in a crisis against 50 US satellites [assuming a mix of targeted military reconnaissance, navigation satellites, and communication satellites] could have a catastrophic effect not only on US military forces, but of the US civilian economy. It is not clear from US open sources how rapidly--if at all--United States could launch “spare” satellites to replace a few dozen that had been incapacitated in orbit by a Chinese attack. US sources refer to many [very expensive] countermeasures such as maneuvering satellites in orbit to escape destruction, using constellations of small satellites, rapid replacement with spares, and even prompt counter strikes on the Chinese launchers.2 A second set of Chinese concepts proposed in these open source writings would also be particularly challenging. Many of the concepts recommended include both jamming and attacking ground stations, rather than the permanent destruct ruction of US satellites. In both cases, the Chinese authors imply the 1 Hong Kong AFP January 19, 2007 2 For a Unclassified list of countermeasures, see “Space Systems Survivability,.” Uri Ra’anan and Robert L Pfaltzgraff, Jr, eds., International Security Dimensions of Space, Hamden CT, Archon Books, 1984, pp 87-93. 3 United States may lack the “forensic” ability to know which nation had neutralized US space systems through covert attack, jamming or destruction of ground stations by missile or Special Forces raids. The US Defense Department currently has put before Congress various proposals for enhancing situational awareness of space attack, but the ultimate approval of multiple-year funding is unknown. 2. Implications of Dialogues with These ASAT Authors It is important that the US establish with the Chinese the serious importance to which we assign this published, detailed advocacy of Chinese weaponization of space. Access to ASAT specialists in China has been impossible in the DOD exchange programs in the past decade, according to some observers, because China prohibits ASAT experts from participating in the exchanges at all. The 3 NDU authors
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