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The Building Societies Association Report for: The Building Societies Association An Analysis of the Relative Performance of UK Banks and Building Societies Prepared by Dr Barbara Casu Centre for Banking Research Cass Business School City University London 30 June 2015 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary……………………………………………………2 1. BACKGROUND 1.1 The UK Economic Outlook……………………………………………………………………….3 2. AN OVERVIEW OF THE STRUCTURE OF THE UK BANKING SECTOR…………...…8 2.1 The Global Financial Crisis and Structural Reforms……………………………………….8 2.2 The Structure of the UK Banking Sector……………………………………………………10 3. THE ECONOMICS OF BUILDING SOCIETIES……………………………………………18 4. THE PERFORMANCE OF BUILDING SOCIETIES: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS…22 4.1 Lending and Asset Growth……………………….……………………………………………24 4.2 Performance Indicators………………………………………………….……………………..27 4.3 Solvency and Stability Indicators…………………………………………………………….35 5. SUMMARY………………………………………………………….………………………….40 6. REFERENCES…………………………………………………………………………………41 Appendix 1: Demutualisation of the UK building society sector (1997 - 2015)………42 Appendix 2: Major British Banking Groups (MBBGs)…………………………………….44 Appendix 3: List of banks and building societies considered in this report…………48 1 Research objectives To evaluate the relative performance of UK building societies To compare the performance of building societies to that of commercial banks To understand the impact of the financial crisis and subsequent regulatory changes on UK building societies To offer an evaluation of the economic outlook for the UK’s building societies' sector EXECTUTIVE SUMMARY This report examines the performance of UK building societies since the large-scale demutualisation process ended in the year 2000. It considers the strengths and the weaknesses of the building society sector and their contribution to the financial industry, at a time where public confidence in the financial system and, in particular banks, is low. The financial services industry is undergoing a period of deep transformation, which affects all industry participants. Regulatory pressure on the sector remains intense and continues to drive further changes. Under the Vickers’ reforms, High Street banks with more than £25 billion in core deposits from individuals and small businesses will be required to establish a boundary around their retail operations, resulting in an operationally distinct entity. While there is still a number of grey areas regarding the final requirements, it is expected that the ring-fencing will profoundly change the affected banking groups and will bring about structural changes in the UK banking and financial sector. While it is generally accepted that co-operative and mutual financial institutions have weathered the crisis much better than their shareholder-oriented counterparts, they will nonetheless be confronted with a wide array of far-reaching regulatory and policy measures to reduce the risk of future financial crises, despite their recent good performance. The results of our analysis highlight the substantial impact of the financial crisis on the sector. Return on Equity and Return on Assets decreased for both groups in the wake of the financial turmoil, with 2008 and 2009 being particularly difficult years. However, as the UK economy shows signs of recovery, the outlook is positive for both groups: banks and building societies have recovered some profitability, although not at the pre-crisis level. Asset and loan growth are mildly positive and the entry of new competitors seems to have had an encouraging effect on activity. Capitalisation ratios are above the regulatory guidelines and both groups are currently in a position to meet the regulatory minimum leverage ratio. Building societies in particular have recovered well from the financial turmoil and they appear less risky than banks on a variety of measures, from lower volatility of earnings, lower volatility of NIMs and higher z-scores. 2 1. BACKGROUND 1.1 The UK Economic Outlook After more than a decade and a half of steady growth, the UK economy was officially declared to be in a recession in January 2009. The recession was a consequence of the credit crunch that began in the USA in August 2007 and which resulted in a global financial crisis in the autumn of 2008. It is now more than seven years since Lehman Brothers collapsed, ushering in the worst phase of the financial crisis, and the UK economy has been recovering at a relatively strong rate since early 2013. Figure 1. GDP Growth (%) Year on Year Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) and author’s calculations In 2014, the UK economy grew by 3.0%, the fastest rate since 2007 and the strongest growth rate in the G7 group of countries (Office for National Statistics). UK growth has been driven primarily by services and is projected to continue at a solid pace in 2015 and 2016, boosted by domestic demand (Institute for Fiscal Studies). There are still, however, causes for concern. For example, while the household debt-to-income ratio has fallen over the last three years, it remains around 150%, significantly higher than those of other European countries and the US. 3 Table 1: Economic Indicators Economic Inflation Growth Household Income (YoY, %) (YoY, %) Real household Household GDP CPI RPI Saving RPIX disposable income debt to income Ratio % (YoY, %) ratio % 2000 3.8 0.8 2.1 3 6.5 9.8 112 2001 2.7 1.2 2.1 1.8 4.9 10.7 119 2002 2.5 1.3 2.2 1.7 2.7 9.9 130 2003 4.3 1.4 2.8 2.9 2.7 9.2 141 2004 2.5 1.3 2.2 3 1.2 7.7 152 2005 2.8 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.1 7 154 2006 3 2.3 2.9 3.2 1.8 6.5 164 2007 2.6 2.3 3.2 4.3 2.4 7.1 168 2008 0.7 3.6 4.3 4 -0.6 5.6 167 2009 -4.3 2.2 2 -0.5 2.3 9.3 159 2010 1.9 3.3 4.8 4.6 0.9 11 151 2011 1.6 4.5 5.3 5.2 -1.9 8.6 150 2012 0.7 2.8 3.2 3.2 1.6 8 147 2013 1.7 2.6 3.1 3 -0.2 6.4 147 2014 3.0 1.5 2.4 2.4 1.5 6.0 144 Source: ONS, Bank of England and author’s calculations. YoY = Year on Year. After several false starts following the financial crisis, the UK economy seems to be enjoying a period of sustained strong growth, helped by low oil prices, low inflation boosting purchasing power and low interest rates fostering investment. Growth has been particularly strong in London and in the South East, although there are signs of recovery in the rest of the country. UK employment has risen in recent years and has supported consumer spending. It is expected that the low cost of finance will help maintain domestic demand growth. 4 Figure 2. UK Gross Disposable Household Income (by region and by country) Per head, by region Per head, by country 23,000 18,000 21,000 16,000 19,000 17,000 14,000 15,000 12,000 United Kingdom 13,000 England 11,000 10,000 Wales United Kingdom North Northern Ireland 9,000 Midlands South 8,000 Scotland 7,000 London 5,000 6,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) and author’s calculations. Rising house prices have also supported consumer confidence and spending. House prices increased by approximately 10% in 2014, which was the strongest annual average performance since 2007. However, there were signs of the housing market cooling down in late 2014 (PwC, 2015). Figure 3. UK Average House Prices 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Unadjusted Inflation Adjusted Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) and author’s calculations. There are marked regional differences in the UK housing market, reflecting differences in income per capita, employment and economic growth. Once again, London and the South East display higher house price growth compared to the rest of the UK. The average London home now costs around £500,000 according to the ONS. Excluding London and the South East, house prices increased by 7.4% in 2014. 5 Figure 4. UK Average House Prices (by region and by country) By region (England) By country (UK) 450000 300000 400000 250000 350000 300000 200000 250000 150000 200000 UNITED KINGDOM 150000 100000 UNITED KINGDOM ENGLAND NORTH 100000 WALES MIDLANDS 50000 SCOTLAND 50000 SOUTH LONDON NORTHERN IRELAND 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) and author’s calculations. The buoyant housing market has also been reflected in an increase in banks’ real estate lending: after a decrease in the mid-2000s, the share of new lending approvals by High Street banks has increased in recent years. This increase in banks’ market share is largely due to a reduction in the share of specialist lenders, resulting from their difficulty in raising wholesale funding – particularly via securitisation - since 2009. Figure 5. High Street Banks share of new lending approvals (%) 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Loans Approved (total) house purchase re‐mortgaging other secured lending Source: British Bankers Association (BBA) and author’s calculations. High street banks were previously named MBBG – Major British Banking Groups.
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