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Comparing Two Regime Crises in Syria: Regional Actors and Russian Involvement

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Comparing Two Regime Crises in Syria: Regional Actors and Russian Involvement Comparing Two Regime Crises in Syria: Regional Actors and Russian Involvement SULTAN ALTAMIMI (21010106) BA, Edith Cowan University, 2009 MA, Curtin University, 2012 This thesis is presented for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy of The University of Western Australia School of Social Sciences (Political Science and International Relations) 2017 ii Candidate’s Declaration Having completed my course of study and research towards the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, I hereby submit my thesis for examination in accordance with the regulations and declare: The thesis is my own composition, all sources have been acknowledged and my contribution is clearly identified in the thesis. This thesis does not breach any ethical rules with regard to the conduct of the research. The thesis has been substantially completed during the course of enrolment in this degree at UWA and has not previously been accepted for a degree at this or another institution. Signature: Date: 13/07/2018 iii iv Abstract This thesis considers the causes of Middle Eastern and Russian involvement in the two Syrian crises of 1982 and since 2011 from a geopolitical perspective. Middle Eastern and Russian involvement in the two Syrian crises was the result of the absence of a regional regulatory system that is capable of considering the geopolitical interests of regional actors and resolving, or even preventing, interstate conflicts without resorting to violence. The absence of a regulatory system in the Middle East is due to the fact that the region is not highly developed as a whole, according to the stage of maturity of Saul B. Cohen’s World Geopolitical System theory, which has been applied in this study. Therefore, conflicts or disturbances are a structural feature of the region. Because of this volatile environment, the Syrian regime resorted, in both crises, to the Soviet Union/Russia for support against regional foes. This thesis emphasises that, without the crucial and decisive Soviet/Russian support to the Syrian regime in the two crises in two different geopolitical eras, the Syrian regime would have collapsed, unable to resist regional pressures, especially in the current crisis since 2011. It also shows that Soviet/Russian support has been effective partly because the Assad regime understands Syria’s human and physical geography more strategically, and successfully, than the armed opposition. The findings of this thesis show that the severity of the current Syrian crisis has been due to structural geopolitical causes. At the national level, the Syrian regime’s implementation of liberal policies, from 2000 to 2010, mostly affected the Syrian rural areas, which led the population in those areas to rebel and seek regional assistance. At the regional level, the reason for the length and intensity of the current crisis is the increase in the number of parties closely involved in the crisis, compared with the 1982 crisis. At the geostrategic level, the increase of geopolitical problems in the Middle East since the US invasion of Iraq has brought a concomitant increase of instability to the region of which Syria is part. Due to international and regional pressure on the Assad regime, a high level of Russian involvement in the current crisis became inevitable. Because the structural causes of the current crisis are unlikely to be resolved, such external involvement will most likely remain a permanent feature of the Middle East. v vi Table of Contents CANDIDATE’S DECLARATION ................................................................................................................ III ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................................. V TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................................... VII LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................................... IX ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................................................ XI AUTHORSHIP DECLARATION .............................................................................................................. XIV LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................................................................... XVI INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................... 1 THE POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY OF THE TWO SYRIAN CRISES ...................................................................................... 1 OUTLINE OF THE THESIS ................................................................................................................................. 7 CHAPTER 1: WORLD GEOPOLITICAL SYSTEM THEORY ..........................................................................10 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................................... 10 COHEN’S GEOPOLITICAL THEORY AS A FRAMEWORK .......................................................................................... 11 MIDDLE EAST DEFINITIONS ........................................................................................................................... 17 THE MIDDLE EAST AS A REGION OF DIVISION .................................................................................................... 18 MIDDLE EAST SUB-REGIONS .......................................................................................................................... 21 SYRIA’S GEOPOLITICAL FEATURES .................................................................................................................... 26 REVIEW OF INTERVENING VARIABLES ............................................................................................................... 29 ENERGY .................................................................................................................................................... 31 MEDIA ...................................................................................................................................................... 34 HUMAN RIGHTS ......................................................................................................................................... 36 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................................. 39 CHAPTER 2: THE GEOPOLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF SYRIAN-RUSSIAN RELATIONS .................................41 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................................... 41 THE POLITICAL ASPECT OF SYRIAN-RUSSIAN RELATIONS....................................................................................... 42 THE MILITARY ASPECT OF SYRIAN-RUSSIAN RELATIONS ....................................................................................... 47 THE ECONOMIC ASPECT OF SYRIAN-RUSSIAN RELATIONS ..................................................................................... 51 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................................. 53 CHAPTER 3: THE DOMESTIC CONTEXT OF THE 1982 SYRIAN REGIME CRISIS .........................................55 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................................... 55 PART 1 ..................................................................................................................................................... 56 The political background ................................................................................................................... 56 Socio-economic background .............................................................................................................. 59 PART 2 ..................................................................................................................................................... 62 Confrontation .................................................................................................................................... 62 PART 3 ..................................................................................................................................................... 64 The triumph of Assad ......................................................................................................................... 64 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................................. 65 CHAPTER 4: THE REGIONAL CONTEXT OF THE 1982 SYRIAN REGIME CRISIS ........................................67 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................................... 67 EGYPT AND THE 1982 SYRIAN CRISIS .............................................................................................................. 67 IRAQ AND THE 1982 SYRIAN CRISIS ................................................................................................................ 70 SAUDI ARABIA AND
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