Global Challenges Foundation
Global Challenges Quarterly Report Global governance in the age of disruptive technology GLOBAL CHALLENGES QUARTERLY REPORT GLOBAL GOVERNANCE IN THE AGE OF DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY
Quarterly report team Project leader: Carin Ism Editor in chief: Julien Leyre Project coordinator: Ben Rhee Research: Waldemar Ingdahl Art director: Elinor Hägg Graphic design: Erik Johansson
Contributors Marcella Atzori Anna Scott Academic researcher, University College Head of Content, Open Data Institute. London; Blockchain Expert in the European Commission for industrial applications. Siim Sikkut Chief Information Officer, Republic of Liu Cixin Estonia. Science fiction writer, author ofThe Three Body Problem. Samuel Sternberg Assistant Professor, Department of Jennifer Doudna Biochemistry and Molecular Biophysics, Professor, Departments of Chemistry & Columbia University. Molecular and Cell Biology, University of California, Berkeley. Pablo Suarez Associate Director for Research and William Hamilton Innovation, Red Cross Red Crescent Founder, Mimerse. Climate Centre.
Robin Hanson Chacko Thomas Associate Professor, Department of Researcher, Climate and Environmental Economics, George Mason University; Governance Network (CEGNET), Australian Research Associate, Future of Humanity National University. Institute, Oxford University. Roey Tzezana Alex Leon Researcher, Blavatnik Interdisciplinary Junior Consultant, Open Data Institute. Cyber Research Centre (ICRC), Tel Aviv University. Tasha McCauley Board Member, GeoSim Systems. Peter Wells Head of Policy, Open Data Institute. Jay Naidoo Board member, Mo Ibrahim Foundation. Kok Yam Tan Deputy Secretary (Smart Nation and Digital David Orban Government), Singapore Prime Minister’s Advisor & Faculty, Singularity University; Office. Founder and Managing Partner, Network Society Research.
2 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 THE GLOBAL CHALLENGES FOUNDATION works to incite deeper under- standing of the global risks that threaten humanity and catalyse ideas to tackle them. Rooted in a scientific analysis of risk, the Foundation brings together the brightest minds from academia, politics, business and civil society to forge transformative approaches to secure a better future for all.
The views expressed in this report are those of the authors. Their statements are not necessarily endorsed by the affiliated organisations or the Global Challenges Foundation.
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 3 4 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 Contents
Preface 6 Executive Summary 10 1. How will disruptive technologies impact global governance? An expert survey – Roey Tzezana 16 2. Imagining the future of global governance – Liu Cixin 26 3. Preparing for the global ramifications of gene-editing technology – Jennifer Doudna & Samuel Sternberg 32 4. Machine learning for better governance – Kok Yam Tan 40 5. Digital lessons from e-Estonia and applications to global governance – Siim Sikkut 46 6. Promoting sustainable development at the global level through the blockchain technology – Marcella Atzori 52 7. Blockchain technology and decentralized governance – David Orban 58 8. Global challenges call for better data infrastructure – Peter Wells, Anna Scott & Alex Leon 64 9. The Internet of Things – coordinating data for better environmental management and reporting – Chacko Thomas 72 10. Making big data intuitive – the challenge of representation – Tasha McCauley 78 11. Governance in the age of Virtual Reality – from data to experience – William Hamilton 84 12. Rethinking the future of governance through games – Pablo Suarez 90 13. Decision markets for global governance – Robin Hanson 96 14. Finding our shared humanity in the digital age – Jay Naidoo 102
Glossary 108 Endnotes 110 Continuing the conversation 111
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 5 MATS ANDERSSON Vice-chairman, Global Challenges Foundation, Former CEO, Fourth Swedish National Pension Fund, co-founder Portfolio Decarbonization Coalition.
6 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 PREFACE
Preface
he Global Challenges visionaries from around the world Foundation, since its to share their perspective on the inception, has worked possibilities and risks associated with leading researchers with those technologies, and to compile and share their potential impact on global Tknowledge of risks on a magnitude governance. such that they threaten the existence of more than a billion people. The development and governance Our mission, however, combines of new technologies currently lie awareness-raising with an effort primarily within the tech industry to identify which model for global itself. Many of our authors, therefore, governance can better mitigate or come from an industry background. – in the best case – eliminate these Their perspectives complement those threats. of expert advisors and public servants In November 2016, the Global involved in cutting-edge initiatives Challenges Foundation cast a harnessing new technologies for wide net to find the best ideas for better governance, as well as key an update to the current global figures from civil society. For the governance system by launching the first time, we are also including a five million dollar New Shape Prize. perspective from the arts, featuring In total, we received 2,702 models a piece from one of China’s most for improved global cooperation respected science fiction authors. around these issues, coming from Technology’s crucial role in 122 countries. The evaluation and driving forward the creation of assessment of proposals is currently the UN is undeniable. It was the underway, involving more than a development of a new technology hundred leading experts. – the nuclear bomb – that, in Our competition guidelines many accounts, brought “the good called for models that could be news of damnation”: the insight implemented within the foreseeable that humanity had developed the future. As such, it is necessary to capacity to self-destruct catalysed a be on the lookout for technological collective understanding that global disruptions that can and will change cooperation was necessary in order to both the shape of human society and achieve existential security. the landscape of global governance From railways to aviation and from and cooperation as we know it. the first cable laid across the Atlantic The present report brings together to the connected networks of the
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 7 PREFACE
Internet, technological innovation new tools are at our disposal. As we has made our world considerably anticipate the outcome from the New smaller. Recent developments in Shape Prize, we chose to develop transport and communication have a report where we would examine created pathways for empathizing how those new tools might affect our and communicating across borders global institutions – and consider to a degree which would have which ones hold the most promise to seemed utopian seven decades ago, make our governance systems more when the UN itself was designed. effective, preemptive and just. Technology has brought nations The compilation of texts presented together: research on nuclear fusion here is naturally far from exhaustive. has gathered scientists from around We do, however, hope to see more the world to develop an energy frequent cross-pollination between source which could come to benefit governance and technology, to all. Today, renewed incentives to better identify both directions for collaborate are likely to stem from improvements and new challenges what is, perhaps, the most promising to prepare for. The conversation technology that our world has started in this report will come live ever seen: artificial intelligence, at the New York Times Climate Tech which offers significant hope for conference in Silicon Valley and at a unprecedented prosperity, but also broadcasted session in Davos, which poses one of the greatest threats to will be shared on our website in humanity. January. Lastly, we hope that some of the ideas planted here will stimulate Existing institutions have proven new conversation at the New Shape insufficient to tackle the pressing Forum in May 2018. dangers that humanity faces. The most telling example may be the more than twenty years that have passed since the global community announced that climate change was a threat to civilization. In theory, we have been able to combat this threat during all this time – but carbon emissions today are higher than ever. Stating that the world has changed Mats Andersson radically through technological Vice-chairman, Global Challenges advancements in the last 70 years Foundation, Former CEO, Fourth sounds like a cliché – and yet, our Swedish National Pension Fund, co- global institutions have changed founder Portfolio Decarbonization very little in that time, though many Coalition
8 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 9 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Executive summary Julien Leyre, Global Challenges Foundation.
isruptive technologies followed by big data, digital can affect societies in governance systems, and biometric unexpected manners. identification. The thirteen pieces in this report explore Science fiction has been an Dthe intersection of innovation and important vehicle for anticipating global governance. They describe technological developments, some of the new challenges to global including some of the most disruptive collaboration presented by recent – therefore, we turned to this field to technological developments, and consider the ways that technology offer a set of visionary perspectives may impact on global governance. on the ways that emerging The second piece in this report offers technologies could provide a new an interview with Liu Cixin, China’s basis for our global institutions. most respected science fiction writer, author of the world-acclaimed As a first step towards better best-seller The Three Body Problem, understanding how technological where the United Nations feature development may hinder or improve prominently. With information global governance, this report opens technology making the world smaller, with a survey of experts from around global cooperation is becoming the world, conducted by Roey increasingly important – particularly Tzezana, researcher at the Blavatnik as the development path of rising Interdisciplinary Cyber Research nations may conflict with the values Centre (ICRC) in Tel Aviv University. of the dominant West. Virtual reality, The results of this survey show a high AI and 3D printing will all play a role level of optimism. Among eleven in the future of global cooperation disruptive technologies presented – but in the eyes of Liu Cixin, the in total to the experts, only two were technology most likely to unify the identified as more likely to hinder planet will be spatial exploration. global governance: autonomous robots and genetic modification. On Genetic modification is the object the positive side, clean and abundant of the third piece in our report, energy was seen as the most likely Preparing for the global ramifications to improve global governance, of gene-editing technology, authored
10 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
by Samuel Sternberg from Columbia Artificial intelligence could overcome University and Jennifer Doudna, the biases and limitations of the Professor at the University of human mind, and offer a radical California Berkeley, and one of the new way to address highly complex leading figures behind what has problems such as climate change. been called ‘the CRISPR Revolution’. Cities offer a good testing ground for When a technology is so radical that this technology, and Singapore has it might alter the very building blocks made some early inroads. However, of life, it also forces us to think about to harness the full possibilities of our common human condition on machine learning, insists the author, a new basis. CRISPR now places the we must invest in the know-how to power to easily rewrite the genetic deal confidently with questions of code of living organisms – including ethics and risk management, and how humans – into the hands of scientists to align artificial intelligence with worldwide. What type of oversight is societal values. required for this technology to deliver on its immense potential to improve Over the last 20 years, Estonia the human condition? Scientific, transformed into one of the most regulatory and governmental digital countries in the world. agencies are starting to get involved What could our global governance at the national level. However, as institutions learn from this this piece articulates, discussions experience? This is what Siim Sikkut, and guidelines must extend beyond Chief Information Officer for the national boundaries, to support Republic of Estonia, proposes to transnational policy diffusion and address in Digital Lessons from strengthen cooperation on a global e-Estonia and applications to scale. the global level. The three pillars of ‘e-Estonia’ have been the Among the various innovations development of a strong digital emerging at the intersection of identity, interoperability systems, governance and technological and a decisive embrace of change. development, one may revolutionize These could offer promising pathways the very core of the governance for more effective global governance process: artificial intelligence based systems. on machine learning used to support decision making processes. This is Trust is a crucial piece of the global the topic of Machine learning for governance puzzle. A new technology better governance by Kok Yam Tan, which is currently the object of many Deputy Secretary in the Smart Nation discussions, the blockchain, may and Digital Government Office in the offer new ways of negotiating trust on Singapore Prime Minister’s Office. a global scale. A large proportion of
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 11 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
international aid money is currently a neutral interface to facilitate lost to corruption or inefficient interactions among a broad range of intermediaries. The blockchain could stakeholders. To bring this vision to offer a solution to this challenge. life, the author argues that the best This is the vision put forward in vehicle would be an independent UN Promoting sustainable development at Labs that harnesses the potential of the global level through the blockchain blockchain technology to support technology by Marcella Atzori, better global data flows and catalize researcher at University College the development of decentralized London and Blockchain advisor with solutions to global challenges. the European Commission. By design, the blockchain supports transparent One of the recurring keywords and auditable transactions, and in all discussions about new provides a way to automate the technologies is ‘data’. Today, we execution of agreements based on can gather and aggregate data more mutual satisfaction. If institutions easily than ever before, but how can were willing to embrace this we best harness the potential of this technology, the blockchain could data to improve the lives of people therefore radically transform and address the world’s most pressing funding models for international challenges? This is the question organizations – and herald a new addressed in Global challenges call paradigm for global resource transfer. for better data infrastructure by three contributors from the Open The following piece, Blockchain Data Institute, Peter Wells, Anna technology and decentralized Scott and Alex Leon. Building governance, by David Orban, appropriate systems will require Advisor and Faculty at the efforts on four fronts: strengthening Singularity University, explores data infrastructure, but also making another set of possibilities offered more data open, promoting data skills by blockchain technology. In a and fostering innovation. Global context of exponential change, old governance institutions, argue the centralized models of governance authors, have a crucial role to play in may be outdated. Opportunity supporting better access to and use of may come from a new trend data, and addressing new challenges towards decentralization, which around ethics, engagement and allows organizations facing global equity. challenges to trial a range of novel solutions adapted to local contexts. The potential offered by data In this perspective, suggests David depends in large part on our capacity Orban, the United Nations could to effectively gather and aggregate operate as a platform, offering it on a large scale. The Internet of
12 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Things is an emerging network where make it possible to create virtual integrated sensors, communicating models of entire cities and run through the Internet, generate accurate simulations of future diverse, granular and real-time data. scenarios, giving experts and non- This technology could revolutionize experts a visceral experience of the way that we monitor the economy potential catastrophes such as and our environment, and respond major floods. This could create a to risks and challenges, as Australian powerful drive towards action and National University researcher support better decision making on Chacko Thomas explains in The the most pressing global challenges Internet of Things – coordinating data – but only if institutional practice for better environmental management starts embracing the possibilities and reporting. What steps do we need offered by these new modes of data to take so that the Internet of Things visualization. can effectively support evidence- based and data-driven decision Developments in data making to benefit humanity? Four visualization are closely connected areas require particular attention. to the coming of age of a new We must build understanding form of experience described in of this new paradigm, including Governance in the age of Virtual its limitations; we must shift our Reality – from data to experience, by discourse from ‘Big’ to ‘Smart’ data; William Hamilton, formerly with we must embrace open data; and we Stockholm University and Founder must unify data standards around of Mimerse, a start-up building the world. virtual reality experiences to better manage and treat mental health. New technologies allow us to Virtual reality is an immersive gather more data than ever before. technology that produces the However, what use is all this data if illusion of real presence in a virtual decision makers cannot access its environment – allowing users, meaning? This is the provocation rather than receive information, to offered by Tasha McCauley – Board take part in a mediated experience. Member at GeoSim, a start-up What should decision makers know exploring revolutionary ways of about an innovation that, with large visualising cities in 3D – in Making investments from major industry big data intuitive – the challenge of players, will become commonplace in representation. The information the coming decades? The technology revolution is not just about is about to radically change the way aggregating more information, we conduct meetings and conceive but also creating better ways of of interpersonal relationships. Soon, visualizing it. Recent advances articulates the author, fully virtual
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 13 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
summits will be commonplace, new ways of approaching unfamiliar and the perspectives gained from problems, and harness the power immersive VR experiences could be of creative thinking to develop new harnessed to make decision making solutions for the world’s greatest processes at major governance challenges. events more conscientious and collaborative. Change in practice and social innovation is also the topic of the When we think of new technology, following piece: in Decision markets we primarily think about hardware for global governance, Robin Hanson, and lines of code. But these from the Future of Humanity developments, in turn, open and Institute, puts forward an innovative encourage new ways of seeing the proposal for improving global world, new ways of interacting, and governance systems. At present, it is new practices which, in themselves, hard for ordinary world citizens to can be revolutionary. Pablo Suarez, judge the quality of global governance associate director for Research and choices. It would be feasible, however, Innovation at the Red Cross Red to create open 'decision markets' Crescent Climate Centre, describes where traders could speculate on the potential of such new practices in the outcomes of particular global Rethinking the future of governance policy choices. On the basis of through games. At major governance information developed through those events, current modes of interaction markets, rather than simply trust are far from optimal. As long as series their representatives to negotiate the of unidirectional statements followed right outcomes in relatively opaque by insufficient Q&A prevail, can we governance forums, global citizens expect any genuine change? Serious could pressure governments to gameplay, uniquely conducive to support the choices that they believe systems thinking, could provide a will most benefit them. precious alternative. Games have already been harnessed in a range of Digital information technology development projects, and resulted has reshaped our lives, the way we in major breakthroughs. Games, communicate, and our production argues the author, have the power systems. However, it has not yet to reveal systemic shortcomings in fulfilled its promise of peace, justice current frameworks. If they were to be and human dignity. This is the more systematically deployed, they premise for the final piece,Finding could deepen the role of citizens in our shared humanity in the digital day-to-day governance mechanisms, age by Jay Naidoo, Board Member at and even improve the workings of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, which major UN bodies. They could trigger focuses on the critical importance
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of governance and leadership in in redefining the economy. For this, Africa. In a world where we see so we need a revolution of values, where much progress, why are we still new technology becomes the bedrock witnessing the repression of citizens, for a solidarity economy, and results rising inequality and the destruction in the development of new public of natural ecosystems? The model commons. of infinite growth adopted around the world is unsustainable and has The report finishes with a glossary generated the greatest inequality. We that presents a short introduction to must rethink technology, not as an the main technologies mentioned end in itself, but as a tool that assists through the text.
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 15 ROEY TZEZANA Roey Tzezana is a futurist and researcher at Blavatnik Interdisciplinary Cyber Research Centre (ICRC), Tel Aviv University. He is also affiliated with the Humanity Centered Robotics Initiative (HCRI) at Brown University, and is a senior scientific advisor for the World Future Society (WFS). The research has been conducted in collaboration with the World Future Society.
16 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 1. HOW WILL DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES IMPACT GLOBAL GOVERNANCE? AN EXPERT SURVEY
1. How will disruptive technologies impact global governance? An expert survey
Roey Tzezana, Researcher at Blavatnik Interdisciplinary Cyber Research Centre (ICRC), Tel Aviv University.
Disruptive technologies can affect societies in unexpected manners. As a first step towards better understanding how technological development may hinder or improve global governance, we conducted a survey with experts around the world. The results shows a high level of optimism. Among eleven disruptive technologies, only two were identified as more likely to have a negative impact: genetic modifications and autonomous robots. On the positive side, clean and abundant energy was seen as the most likely to have a positive effect, followed by big data, digital governance systems, and biometric identification.
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 17 1. HOW WILL DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES IMPACT GLOBAL GOVERNANCE? AN EXPERT SURVEY
isruptive technologies have a comments about the potential uses of way of impacting the societal each technology. D order in unexpected manners. For each technology, we examined Internet-based social media, for responses as to the potential for example, has already shown its merit improving or hindering global in bringing about the Arab Spring on governance, then calculated a the one hand, and disseminating fake Positive/Negative Impact (PNI) index news on the other. The immediate as follows impact of disruptive technologies is often unclear – but futures studies Potential for positive impact methodologies can be utilized to PNI technology= develop scenarios about the way in Potential for negative impact which future technologies will impact global governance. A technology that has a large PNI As a first step towards index is one for which the potential understanding the potential for positive impact outweighs the impact of new technologies on potential for a negative one. A global governance, we conducted technology with a low PNI index is a survey with futurists in different one in which there is more potential organizations, including the World for a negative impact. This PNI Future Society, the Millennium index can help us identify which Project, TechCast, Wikistrat and technologies we should invest in others. We created a preliminary to promote global governance, and list of disruptive and emerging which technologies garner more technologies, presented them with futures thinking and preparation a brief explanation, and asked about before we make use of them. their potential to either “improve global governance” or “hinder global Positive / Negative Impact index governance”, with a scale of 1 to 7 (and Clean Abundant Energy 1.878 an “I don’t know” option). Participants Big Data and Predictive Analytics 1.319 were also asked to comment on the Digital Governance Systems 1.317 potential impact of the technology. Biometric Identification 1.313 Altogether, 285 respondents Internet of Things 1.267 1.264 provided answers to the survey Internet for All Quantum Communications 1.198 questions: 76% of those hold a Space Exploation 1.153 graduate degree of some sort, and Aerial Drones 1.126
49% are American citizens, while Blockchain Technologies 1.101 the rest come from over fifteen other Algorithmic Regulation 1.018 nations around the world. In total, Autonomous Robots 0.929 we collected at least 185 answers for Genetic Modification 0.872 every question, and 80 – 140 detailed
18 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 1. HOW WILL DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES IMPACT GLOBAL GOVERNANCE? AN EXPERT SURVEY
The PNI index reflects the overall a ‘winner takes all’ phenomenon in optimism or pessimism that people the digital world. feel towards specific technologies. In order to better understand the When the PNI index is larger than precise arguments for and against 1, people are generally optimistic the technologies in this report, – they think that the technology we conducted a more extensive has greater potential to improve analysis of the answers provided global governance than to hinder for the three technologies with the it. As such, it is remarkable how largest PNI index. We also analyzed optimistic respondents to this the two technologies that received survey have been about most a PNI index smaller than 1. These technologies. answers can help us understand the Biometric identification, aerial hopes, fears, opportunities and risks drones and algorithmic regulation associated with each technology, are often connected to dystopian while also providing us with expert visions of the future – yet here, advice regarding the challenges experts are generally optimistic for making the most out of the about those technologies. Even technology. autonomous robots, which are the stuff of futuristic horror movies, Positive tech #1: clean and have been recognized as nearly abundant energy neutral (i.e. their PNI is only just With the growing need to move under 1) in the eyes of the experts towards an economy less reliant on surveyed. carbon, new clean forms of energy The precise reason for this creation – particularly renewable optimism is unclear but certainly energy, usually solar- or wind-based encouraging. That said, the – have become a booming market. experts are still cautious about This, in turn, is expected by many many technologies – sometimes to reduce the reliance of many unexpectedly so. “Internet for all”, nations on fossil-based fuels and on for example, was seen throughout centralized power plants, and shift the last two decades as one of global power relations, particularly the main goals of developed and in regions that have been heavily developing nations. And yet, reliant on fossil fuels for their it receives a PNI index of only development. More generally, some 1.264: while the respondents have seen this shift as heralding a understand its major impact on new era of energy abundance. global governance, they are fearful It is remarkable to note how of its negative uses – as these have optimistic the experts are about this been demonstrated lately with the technology. It has received both the onset of ‘fake news’ and the rise of second-largest “positive impact”
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 19 Disruptive technologies have a way of impacting the societal order in unexpected manners. The immediate impact of disruptive technologies is often unclear – but futures studies methodologies can be utilized to develop scenarios about the way in which future technologies will impact global governance.
20 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 1. HOW WILL DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES IMPACT GLOBAL GOVERNANCE? AN EXPERT SURVEY
ranking, and the lowest “negative international agreements. Finally, impact” ranking. This may be in part there is currently a move towards because of the positive description global governance agreements of the technology as “clean” and regarding climate control, and by “abundant”. ‘taking that sword off our neck’ Participants believed that we may find that reaching such the main beneficial result of agreements becomes more difficult. this development would be a The experts have expressed some betterment of people’s lives all concerns about future developments over the world. It will lead to a in this field. They’ve warned that cleaner environment and better the new technologies for harvesting health, to better food security due energy may fall into the hands of to the capability to utilize energy only a select group of nation and for growing crops, and to more that a new “politics of sun” may innovation worldwide – leading crop up. They were also worried to higher productivity. Altogether, that governments will turn their these developments should lead to attention to other scarce resources, a future of higher prosperity and like rare earth metals (which are better subjective well-being (also needed for some renewable energy known as happiness) – and content production systems), or even digital people tend to fight less. Moreover, resources like data and AI. abundant energy should reduce the frequency of resource wars, and will Positive tech #2: big data and shift power away from the select predictive analytics nations that currently control fossil Big data and predictive analytics energy sources. systems can be used to collect massive amounts of data and However, this development is not determine the likelihood of without some risk. The process of certain future events (e.g. natural moving over to renewable energies disasters, wars, etc), and thus enable will cause a dramatic shift in better preparation for them. The international power structures, capabilities of this technology stand and may lead to much conflict and to be amplified by AI-based systems strife along the way, as nations that could directly support decision that base their economies on fossil making. fuel production suffer greatly. In A technology of this kind could addition, without the reliance help improve overall efficiency of on fossil fuels, some measure of global agreements by monitoring interdependence between nations and tracking food, energy and will be lost, which may make it water usage, and regulating it on a more difficult to form binding global level. The same would apply
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 21 1. HOW WILL DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES IMPACT GLOBAL GOVERNANCE? AN EXPERT SURVEY
for tracking immigration. The Positive tech #3: Digital technology would also help nations governance systems better prepare for future adverse Digital governance systems effects like terrorist attacks, thus allow citizens to influence their limiting damage and preventing government or directly participate in escalation of conflicts between decision making through the internet, nations and non-state actors. by taking part in committees, The risks and challenges of using conducting public discussions and big data and predictive analytics, voting online. however, are substantial. Nations The experts believe that digital will fight over data collection (“data governance systems will increase the will be the new oil”), and nations public’s involvement in the collective with more data and better AI global governance systems, by making systems will be better positioned it easier for people to vote, and making to reap the most benefits – while sure there’s no fraud in elections quickly leaving others in the dust. and decision making processes. Governments and economic entities Furthermore, such systems could could centralize the collection and promote worldwide partnerships at analysis of regional and global the grassroots level, leading to better data, and abuse this information to acceptance of global governance. disempower individuals and groups, On the other hand, a digital global fermenting anger and dissent. democracy that is not inclusive Finally, an unexpected negative could damage global governance. In side effect of big data and predictive addition, the experts expressed doubt analytics could be that it will about the potential of these systems increase the speed of decision to achieve mass-engagement, as making inside nations, while global oftentimes the subjects discussed are agreements and decision making remote from the daily lives of most will keep evolving at a snails’ pace. people. There is real worry that digital While experts see great potential systems for public discourse will be for big data and predictive analytics, dominated by the most vocal and they caution us to remember radical participants, leaving moderate that insights gained from this voices unheard. This fear ties closely technology are only as good as the with the rise of the Internet as a data they rely on. Furthermore, data ‘fake news’ engine, leading to people collection and interpretation could making unwise decisions under the easily be biased to reflect cultural influence of ‘junk information’. preferences. Therefore, data will Finally, hacking is a very real issue need to be collected from many that will need to be addressed in order different sources, and interpreted to maintain trust in digital governance with caution. systems.
22 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 1. HOW WILL DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES IMPACT GLOBAL GOVERNANCE? AN EXPERT SURVEY
Negative tech #1: autonomous just about anyone. By reducing human robots deaths, they will make war more Research & development efforts palatable, giving large, technologically are currently under way to create sophisticated, and aggressive powers autonomous robots – robots that can much greater freedom of action act without human control – to be against the relatively defenseless.” used in warfare and for keeping order. While the experts understand that Negative tech #2: genetic robots could improve monitoring modification and remote strike capabilities with Genetic modification could minimal loss of human life, and thus allow nations to engineer the next make it more difficult for conflicts to generation according to certain escalate, there is a concern that they paradigms and perceived needs. could also normalize war and conflict Human babies may be engineered, as a ‘lower risk activity’. This could for example, to have enhanced even lead to robots fighting robots, intelligence, or to withstand harsh with no humans involved on the environments such as those found on battlefield, and result in an AI arms high mountains. race while reducing trust between The experts are worried that genetic nations. This development would modification will draw a ‘new line obviously be disastrous for global in the sand’ between two kinds of governance. ideologies: those that emphasize Some see robots as “fair witnesses” human change and adaptation, and and “fair judges” with no human those that wish to stay and halt the biases, but others express concern change. Due to the potential power that robots would have the of genetic engineering in enhancing same biases as the humans who human intelligence (a power which programmed them. has not been demonstrated yet), it is As the cost of developing, deploying conceivable that the next ‘arms race’ and operating robots goes down, they could be focused on this technology. will almost certainly be used by non- As some countries leap forward ahead state actors as tools to wreak havoc of others in this field due to lax ethics and conduct terrorist attacks. Even and regulations, they will gain greater the most sophisticated robots could economic and military power over still be vulnerable to hacking and other, more conservative, nations. potentially be reprogrammed by non- On the other hand, in the far state actors. In the words of one of the future, genetic engineering could experts, “Autonomous military robots easily be used to increase resistance will be a force multiplier for anyone and immunity to certain diseases, who possesses them – and in ten years, as well as age-related illnesses fifteen at the outside, that will mean and potentially even aging itself.
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 23 1. HOW WILL DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES IMPACT GLOBAL GOVERNANCE? AN EXPERT SURVEY
Obviously, the nations that choose to These technologies can help move make use of this technology would funds around the world more quickly, again receive a great power over other speed efforts to share resources nations that choose not to use genetic across borders, and decrease the engineering – or those that don’t even power of large corporations. They have the choice. could, however, prove to be a major force to challenge the control of Addendum: blockchain nations over these services, and even technologies aid the formation and existence of Blockchain technologies are black markets and money laundering currently the subject of many schemes, as well as monetary discussions, with particular interest manipulation. While experts were in their impact for the future of generally enthusiastic about the nations and governance. For this potential of the technology to provide reason, we chose to include the greater transparency and hinder experts’ ideas and opinions on this governments’ ability to conduct topic. Blockchain technologies misdeeds, they also recognized enable complete decentralization of that blockchain technologies could data storage and computation, and diminish the overall coordination and are the basis for Bitcoin, the first governance capabilities of traditional decentralized currency outside any governments by pushing the power government control. Blockchain to the edges of society. As one of the technologies could enable the experts wrote: “Blockchain could be decentralization of monetary the first step in the death of the nation systems, dispute resolution (i.e. state and the democratization of justice) systems, document storage power to the community and citizen systems and many other services. level.”
24 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 25 LIU CIXIN Liu Cixin is China’s foremost science fiction writer. His most famous work, The Three Body Problem, first serialized on the Chinese Internet in 2006, was translated and published in English in November 2014, and won the 2015 Hugo Award for Best Novel. It has been described by some critics as ‘the Chinese Star Wars’, and a film adaptation is currently in preparation.
26 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 2. IMAGINING THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE
2. Imagining the future of global governance
Liu Cixin, science fiction writer, author ofThe Three Body Problem.
Science fiction has been an important vehicle for anticipating technological developments. When imagining the future of global governance in his world- acclaimed best-seller The Three Body Problem, what did Liu Cixin, China’s most prominent sci-fi writer, take into consideration? With information technology making the world smaller, global cooperation is becoming increasingly important – particularly as the development path of rising nations may conflict with the values of the dominant west. Virtual reality, AI and 3D printing will all play a role in the future of global cooperation, but spatial exploration may be the technology most likely to unify the planet.
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 27 2. IMAGINING THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE – AN INTERVIEW WITH LIU CIXIN
28 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 2. IMAGINING THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE
iu Cixin is a Chinese science Liu Cixin: fiction writer, nine-time winner I think global cooperation is a major L of the Galaxy Award, China’s future trend. With the development most prestigious literary science of Internet information technology, fiction award. His most famous work, the world is increasingly getting The Three Body Problem, was first smaller. The information network serialized on the Chinese Internet in is uniting the world as a single 2006, then published in 2008. The entity. At the same time, mankind book was translated and published in is also facing common challenges English in November 2014, and won and opportunities. Environmental the 2015 Hugo Award for Best Novel. issues and the establishment of The Three Body Problem has been sustainable economic systems are described by some critics as ‘the turning mankind into a community Chinese Star Wars’. President Obama of shared interests. Countries, groups counts among the enthusiastic readers and individuals are increasingly of the book, whose immense scope, aware that we can only have a bright he said, put day-to-day political future if we consider issues from the challenges in perspective1, and Liu perspective of all mankind. Cixin has been invited by the Chinese The United Nations is an government aerospace agency to international organization that was consult on science missions. A film established after the Second World adaptation of The Three Body Problem War. At that time, its main focus was is currently in preparation, and is on international security. However, expected to be the first major science in the future, the world needs more fiction production coming out of cooperation in the fields of economic China. development, technological progress Science fiction has been an and environmental protection. The important vehicle for anticipating United Nations must undertake major future technological developments, reforms in order to adapt to the future and the UN features prominently international community. in The Three Body Problem. On this basis, we invited Liu Cixin to further GCF: What do you consider the describe what he envisaged as the biggest hurdles facing global future of global governance. cooperation in the coming century? Global Challenges Foundation: How did you envision global Liu Cixin: cooperation in the future? What In the course of global development, did you need to take into account different countries will inescapably when you were thinking about explore and discover development describing the UN in the far future? paths most suitable for themselves.
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 29 Exploring the space frontier may be the ultimate way for mankind to finally address major global challenges.
30 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 2. IMAGINING THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE
In this process, differences between machine translation technology will civilizations and cultures will be more enable people from different regions apparent than before. Inevitably, and ethnic groups to overcome the the development paths of different language barrier. The development countries and ethnic groups will be of 3D printing technology is likely in contradiction and conflict with the to enable hardware items to be values of the West, as well as Western transmitted over the Internet. political and economic systems, In the long run, another which are currently dominant. This technological area that will promote will become the biggest obstacle to global cooperation is likely to be future global cooperation. space technology. Exploring the space frontier may be the ultimate GCF: Which technological tools way for mankind to finally address do you consider as potentially major global challenges. For example, helpful for the global community environmental and global warming to be able to coordinate action and issues could eventually be resolved share goals? by moving high pollution and high emission industries to the space Liu Cixin: orbit. The current scope of space Information and Internet technology exploration and development is still is an important technical force limited; this huge market has yet to to promote global cooperation. take off. Once the space market jets Today, the Internet has already off, its scale may be stupendously made unprecedented exchange broader than that of the IT industry, of information between different and its impact on human life may be regions of the world smooth and even more profound. However, early convenient, turning the world into investment in space exploration is a village in terms of information extremely large; global cooperation flows. Existing and upcoming new is needed to achieve the cause. In technologies will accelerate this the areas of space exploration and trend. For example, the growing development, the future may see virtual reality technology will allow unprecedented large-scale global face-to-face communication among cooperation. If we say that the people at a long distance. The Internet unites the world, then development of artificial intelligence mankind will discover a common and increasingly sophisticated future in space.
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 31 JENNIFER DOUDNA Jennifer A. Doudna is a professor at the University of California, Berkeley, investigator with the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, researcher at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and executive director of the Innovative Genomics Institute. She is co-author of A Crack in Creation: Gene Editing and the Unthinkable Power to Control Evolution.
SAMUEL STERNBERG Samuel H. Sternberg will start as assistant professor at Columbia University in 2018. He is co-author of A Crack in Creation: Gene Editing and the Unthinkable Power to Control Evolution.
32 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 3. PREPARING FOR THE GLOBAL RAMIFICATIONS OF GENE-EDITING TECHNOLOGY
3. Preparing for the global ramifications of gene- editing technology
Jennifer Doudna, Professor, Departments of Chemistry & Molecular and Cell Biology, University of California, Berkeley. Samuel Sternberg, Assistant Professor, Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biophysics, Columbia University.
CRISPR technology now places the power to easily rewrite the genetic code of living organisms – including humans – into the hands of scientists worldwide. What type of oversight is required for this technology to deliver on its immense potential to improve the human condition? Scientific, regulatory, and governmental agencies are starting to get involved at the national level, but discussions and guidelines must extend beyond national boundaries, to support transnational policy diffusion and strengthen cooperation on a global scale.
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 33 3. PREPARING FOR THE GLOBAL RAMIFICATIONS OF GENE-EDITING TECHNOLOGY
rogress in international are applying these methods to collaboration has largely develop new therapies that may P been driven by global alleviate or even cure genetic disease catastrophes and new technological and certain cancers. developments. Wars, epidemics, Yet the diverse applications of and natural disasters reveal a shared CRISPR technology, which go well vulnerability, while technological beyond human therapeutics, are not innovations, particularly in the without far-reaching ethical, legal, fields of healthcare, transportation, and social ramifications. Agricultural and communication, increase our companies are harnessing new capacity to interact and bring us breeding technologies involving closer together. Efforts to aggressively CRISPR to improve traits in plants pursue those innovations that unlock and animals without the scars of gene great areas of human potential splicing, blurring the lines of what must also be balanced, however, by is considered a genetically modified parallel efforts that anticipate their organism. In vectors of disease like potential disruptive effects on society, the common mosquito, CRISPR- particularly when those effects based gene drive technology is cross national boundaries. This is being developed to spread pathogen especially so with a transformative resistance into wild populations, an technology that promises to redefine approach that could save thousands our relationship to the very building of lives but also irreversibly alter blocks of life. the genetics of native ecosystems in unknown ways. Perhaps most Not long ago, basic research to profoundly, the union of CRISPR and determine how bacteria fight off viral assisted reproductive technology may infection seemed about as likely to allow physicians to correct disease- impact human health as the sign of associated mutations in human one’s horoscope. Since then, however, embryos such that changes would be so-called CRISPR systems have inherited by all future generations, transformed biomedical science by an application that has provoked enabling researchers to make precise concerns over equal access, a slippery changes to the DNA of virtually any slope towards genetic enhancements, cell or organism. Proof-of-concept and eugenics abuses. experiments in cultured human cells using this transformative gene- While scientific research on editing technology have erased the CRISPR technology continues mutations that cause cystic fibrosis, unabated, it is crucial that we step Duchenne muscular dystrophy, and back to systematically investigate all countless other genetic disorders. the pros and cons, and to determine Research efforts already underway how proper governance can ensure
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that the products of research and who should be accountable, and how innovation impact society in a should liability be handled. In the beneficial manner. By placing the case of malaria-resistant mosquitoes, power to easily rewrite genetic careful global engagement would be code into the hands of scientists especially important since the field worldwide, CRISPR offers immense trials would likely take place in those potential to improve the human low- and middle-income countries condition, but only with appropriate disproportionately affected by the oversight. disease, whereas early research Scientific, regulatory, and would likely occur in high-income governmental agencies are starting to countries like the United States and get involved at the national level. In the United Kingdom. the United States, for example, the US Department of Agriculture has begun Proactive and assertive global informing some food producers how governance is also an imperative in gene-edited crops will be regulated, the controversial area of heritable and the National Academies of gene editing in humans. Although Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine the potential impacts would be have authored studies on human gene slower to surface than gene drive editing and gene drive technology technology, uncontrolled advances that include comprehensive sets of in certain parts of the world could recommendations for future uses lead to an international genetic arms and oversight. Similar analyses and race or the emergence of regulatory prescriptions are also being published havens and a “race to the bottom.” in other countries. A cautionary tale on the risks of inaction can already be seen with Moving forward, these discussions a related assisted reproductive and guidelines must extend across technology known as mitochondrial national boundaries as well, given replacement therapy, which is being the global implications of gene developed but is not yet clinically editing. approved in the US. In a recent case, Take gene drive technology, in however, a New York physician which CRISPR-modified animals exported genetically modified would be released into the wild, embryos to Mexico for implantation, with the intent of spreading traits specifically to evade US restrictions. like malaria resistance. By their very Imagine the type of industry that nature, these modified organisms might result if the intent were would cross national boundaries and not to produce an embryo free of territories, complicating questions genetic disease, but an embryo with of governance, such as who should a genetic enhancement enabled by make decisions about field trials, CRISPR.
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 35 By placing the power to easily rewrite genetic code into the hands of scientists worldwide, CRISPR offers immense potential to improve the human condition, but only with appropriate oversight.
36 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 3. PREPARING FOR THE GLOBAL RAMIFICATIONS OF GENE-EDITING TECHNOLOGY
Robust international governance United States, Canada, and Argentina. could discourage this kind of medical So what should effective global tourism, assure equal protection governance of gene-editing for the citizens of all nations, set technology look like? A critical first international gene-editing standards step is transnational policy diffusion, for scientists and companies, and in which regulators and governing help prevent trade disputes with bodies from different nations gene-edited foods. The challenge maintain frequent and open lines is determining what mechanism of of communication as technologies international convergence is actually develop. An excellent precedent possible, given the substantial legal was set with the 2015 International differences that are already in place Summit on Human Gene Editing in across the globe on issues like GMOs Washington, D.C., in which scientific and genetic modification of human agencies from the US, UK, and China embryos. acted as co-hosts and another dozen Formal regulatory harmonization countries were represented by invited across the many CRISPR applications, speakers. such as would be accomplished through international treaty, is The next step is looking for unlikely to be feasible. Different ways to strengthen international countries exhibit unique social, cooperation and coordination, political, and ethical norms that especially through the involvement are often mutually incompatible, and broadened oversight offered by and the substantial resources other stakeholders such as NGOs, required to arrive at legally-binding professional scientific societies, and agreements are often not justified public-private partnerships. For by the outcomes. For example, example, the International Standards despite numerous meetings in the Coordinating Body was recently early 2000s aimed at a prohibition established to create standards of human reproductive cloning, the for cell and gene-based medicine United Nations General Assembly products, and the International was unsuccessful in reaching a Society for Stem Cell Research has consensus on a binding convention. published guidelines for experiments In the case of the Cartagena Protocol involving genetic changes to human on Biosafety, which ensures the embryos. Also crucial is a reliance on safe handling, transport, and use public outreach and engagement to of genetically modified organisms facilitate decision making, so that the produced through biotechnology, multinational diversity of opinions over 150 countries are member parties on gene editing’s societal impact but the protocol has not been ratified becomes an asset rather than an by major global players including the impediment.
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 37 3. PREPARING FOR THE GLOBAL RAMIFICATIONS OF GENE-EDITING TECHNOLOGY
Gene-editing technology offers “La science n’a pas de patrie, parce incredible potential to positively que le savoir est le patrimoine de transform our world, but only l’humanité, le flambeau qui éclaire le by persistently confronting and monde”. Science has no homeland, addressing its global ramification can because knowledge is the heritage of we ensure that the benefits accrue humanity, the torch that illuminates to all. As Louis Pasteur once said, the world.
38 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 1.6. IMAGINING THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE – AN INTERVIEW WITH LIU CIXIN
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 39 KOK YAM TAN Kok Yam Tan is Deputy Secretary in charge of the Smart Nation and Digital Government program in the Singapore Prime Minister’s Office. Prior to his current post, he served in a number of other Ministries within the Singapore Public Service, including the Ministry of Defence, the Ministry of National Development and the Ministry of Education.
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4. Machine learning for better governance
Kok Yam Tan, Deputy Secretary (Smart Nation and Digital Government), Singapore Prime Minister Office.
Artificial intelligence based on machine learning could revolutionize the very core of the governance process. It could overcome the biases and limitations of the human mind, and offer a radically new way to address highly complex problems such as climate change. How can governments and global institutions learn to deploy such capabilities? Cities offer a good testing ground, and Singapore has made some early inroads. However, to harness the full possibility of machine learning, we must invest in the know-how to deal confidently with questions of ethics and risk management.
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t the Montreal international it autonomously develops its own airport, near the immigration problem-solving rules, in a way A counter, a sign proudly that is often opaque to its creators declares, “the border goes digital”. themselves. No human directly In that context, the message is clear: established the rules that determined border controls are being automated Alphago’s decision; it “figured out” and shall be a lesser pain to all who what to do from a huge set of game pass. Strip away the airport context, data, and thus it could develop moves and the statement is deliciously and responses that surprised every ironic. Modern digital technologies, human player of the game. by their nature, invalidate physical borders, they do not augment them. With increasing advances in Their reach and operating span artificial intelligence, there is no transcend distances and boundaries. doubt that governments must learn to In this digitally connected world, deploy such capabilities to serve their what new opportunities and risks constituents better. For Singapore, come? And how can and should a key thrust of our Smart Nation nations and governments now work initiative is to develop capabilities together? in machine learning at the national level. Among other endeavours, we There are many emerging areas at have invested in a significant R&D the intersection of governance and programme called “AI Singapore”. technological development where Within the government, we are also greater international exchange of beginning to scratch the surface in knowledge is needed. These include the use of machine learning on a particularly new models of city daily practical basis. Early use cases management powered by sensor tend to involve needle-in-a-haystack networks and big data, as well as problems where “judgment” needs to new forms of monetary transactions be scaled, because rules are not easy through blockchain technology. to codify, and there are not enough There is one area, however, that may humans to go around and give human revolutionize the very core of the evaluation. One example is the task of decision making process itself: it is picking out anomalous transactions the increasing potential for machine from voluminous sets of data points learning to support administration for audit purposes. and governance. Inevitably, though, governments Automation by machine learning will come to the point where it is quite different from automation by becomes technically feasible to use rule-based algorithms. The machine machine learning more broadly, is not controlled by well-defined either to replace human judgment protocols or parameters; instead, (for example, determining who is
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at fault in minor traffic accidents) a machine to ensure the validity or even to substitute codified of its decision making over time rules themselves (for example, with changing needs and societal determining who requires more values? These are in many ways insurance coverage). In the long technical questions, but they have term, harnessing this technology for societal, policy and organizational governance purposes can help us implications. overcome the biases and limitations of the human mind. Our cognitive As the field of artificial intelligence abilities may not allow us to easily advances to be more powerful and grasp some of the greatest challenges, pervasive, it becomes increasingly particularly where it is a complex necessary for governments to problem that involves systems of invest now in the know-how to deal systems, where the direction of confidently with such questions; causality is not clear, and where – the other option would be to do perhaps most confoundingly – we ourselves a disservice by avoiding ourselves are part of the system. the technology altogether. Moreover, At the global level, climate change governments’ role does not merely is one such challenge. Machine stop at using the technology for learning can be the basis for a more itself, but in regulating the broader effective decision making process use of machine learning in banking, yielding significant progress towards healthcare, insurance and other sustainability. industries. Regulation must be However, there is a difficult informed by good science; hence problem to overcome, because the importance of research in AI effectiveness of decision making is governance, risk management not the only consideration. Human and safety, particularly to address evaluators, as well as written codes the challenge of aligning AI with and rules, exist also to explain and societal values that will change communicate decisions to those who over time. These issues tend not are subject to those rules. Society to attract as much commercial and organizations can scrutinize interest, because the benefits are the decisions, by scrutinizing the diffused and the outcomes are not rulebook and/or the people who made directly monetizable. But if not the decisions. We can debate their addressed, the amazing potential of validity, and alter them over time. machine learning may bring about serious threats that we do not fully How is that possible when comprehend. decisions are made in the black box Early movers in this field – of a learning machine? How do we industries and governments – should maintain, influence and alter such come together with researchers and
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 43 Regulation must be informed by good science: hence the importance of research in AI governance, risk management and safety, particularly to address the challenge of aligning AI with societal values that will change over time. These issues tend not to attract as much commercial interest, because the benefits are diffused and the outcomes are not directly monetizable. But if not addressed, the amazing potential of machine learning may bring about serious threats that we do not fully comprehend.
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technicians, and develop common businesses. As Singapore pursues its language and frameworks to address Smart Nation initiative, it becomes the issue of managing learning increasingly clear that cities and machines. Such work should be governments will require deep know- grounded in, and be relevant to, the how to deploy, maintain and govern practical applications of machine these emerging technologies. This learning for now and the near future. work is too important, and too multi- For this, cities offer a testing ground faceted and complex, for any party for models that, in the longer term, to pursue alone. It would be ironic could revolutionize not only local, if we do not connect our thinking but national and global governance in this, when the very nature of the institutions. technology itself is inter-connectivity. We would be putting new wine in old The impact of the rapid advances wineskins. We can still make digital in digital and smart technologies can borders, but we will have to cross be transformational to people and them to truly advance digitally.
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 45 SIIM SIKKUT Siim Sikkut is the Chief Information Officer of the Republic of Estonia. Prior to this, Sikkut was Digital Advisor to the Prime Minister of Estonia.
46 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 5. DIGITAL LESSONS FROM E-ESTONIA AND APPLICATIONS TO GLOBAL GOVERNANCE
5. Digital lessons from e-Estonia and applications to global governance
Siim Sikkut, Government Chief Information Officer, Republic of Estonia.
Over the last 20 years, Estonia transformed into one of the most digital countries in the world. What could our global governance institutions learn from this experience? The three pillars of ‘e-Estonia’ have been the development of a strong digital identity, interoperability systems, and a decisive embrace of change. These could offer promising pathways for more effective global governance systems.
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 47 5. DIGITAL LESSONS FROM E-ESTONIA AND APPLICATIONS TO GLOBAL GOVERNANCE
he government of Estonia has our digital journey might still have been employing information relevance for revamping governance T and communications on a global level. technology to the best of our ability for more than 20 years to improve First, one of the pillars of our the efficiency and effectiveness of digital government is a strong digital our public sector. As a result, we have identity. In our case, it comes in the transformed into one of the most form of smart chip cards (ID-cards digital countries in the world. that work similarly to an average Any interaction between bank card, with PINs for security) government and residents, be they and the equivalent mobile-ID (usable physical persons or legal entities with any devices via your phone). (companies) can take place fully Regardless of the particular form or digitally. In the same vein, the back token of identity, the idea is simple: office of government is almost fully there has to be a secure way to access digital – the only exceptions being and provide services to users online areas such as foreign correspondence (in other words: to authenticate). This and similar services. The country is should be available for everyone to sometimes even called e-Estonia, ensure economies-of-scale as well signalling the extent to which digital as inclusivity. In Estonia, everyone services and solutions permeate has to have a digital ID-card in their the lives of Estonian citizens, pocket, for example. entrepreneurs or public servants. Without strong authentication, These days, our services are even there cannot be trust between available beyond our borders interacting parties. How do you know through e-Residency: anyone in the the other person or organisation world can apply to get an Estonian is who they claim to be? Global digital identity and start using the governance needs the same digital services that government sort of trust – whether for inter- and the private sector offer from organisational collaborations or, a distance – one important target even more so, for any form of direct group for this being cross-border democracy. Moreover, digital ID can entrepreneurs. also ensure trust by enabling digital Most of the know-how in digital signing, which is a necessity for any transformation accumulated by bureaucracy, be it local, national or Estonia may not directly translate global. into anything useful on the global With digital signatures, red tape governance stage since, overall, the and hassle are reduced (no more focus of global governance is not need to courier and keep paper service delivery. However, some documents) and any interaction can of the core lessons we learned on be handled digitally in its entirety.
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Digital signatures have been the most the efficiency of the back office instrumental and useful service we – for example, by allowing more ever started using in Estonia – as powerful analytics. Interoperability they are engrained in almost all other is what makes it possible for various digital services, whether government agencies, work streams, data sources, or private sector run (e.g. banking information systems, etc, to be transactions). With a secure way integrated and collaborate. to digitally sign, and to do so in a Interoperability comes in many legally valid manner, no physical ways and at many levels. For example, meetings have to take place, and no standards have to be there for data paper documents are required at all. structures, exchange formats, etc. On Think about the efficiencies we could a practical level, some integration reap on the global level! In Estonia, platforms are necessary. In Estonia, we roughly estimate that we save at our solution has been called X-Road. least a work week of unnecessary It is the data exchange platform that hassle and time for each working connects our whole government person each year, just by using digital together digitally, and integrates signatures across the whole economy. the government with the private Now, digital IDs exist in various sector whenever data exchanges are countries around the world. But three needed. X-Road is not a vast database things are necessary to ensure that or service bus, but rather, a shared they operate effectively: to make or standardized protocol on how to them usable across jurisdictions transmit data between endpoints. (by ensuring mutual recognition, Effectively, it is a lean layer on top unifying standards, etc); to make of whatever digital solutions some sure that more people have access agency may use. If you integrate to them (the World Bank and others once, you become immediately have started global initiatives in interoperable with anyone else in the this regard); and to take them into network. use for existing global governance Any global governance set-up mechanisms and networks. needs interoperability to effectively function. The more parties are The second pillar of e-Estonia involved, the more interoperability is strong interoperability. All matters. Also, the more we try governments fundamentally work to use digital tools to help our in silos. Yet, people want integrated governance, the more interoperability and seamless services, which requires matters again. For example, the exchange and integration of data management of pandemics, climate from various technical sources and change or nuclear arsenal can agencies. Similarly, cross-referencing be greatly boosted by Internet of and reusing data can greatly boost Things applications. Yet, how do
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 49 Our ultimate learning has been that digital transformation is actually not about tech or digital. The core of it is transformation as such – change. Thus, to be able to benefit from digital tools in global governance, we need to rethink how we do things on the global level and boldly try out new practices or methods that new digital solutions allow for.
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we make the myriad of devices, E-Estonia has reached its current sensors and systems work together? level only through strong leadership Interoperability. That means that was ready to take risks and standards, that means platforms. change the way we used to do things, Estonian X-Road-type solutions could e.g. radically simplify services based help us move forward on this. on data exchange and move them Our ultimate learning has been that online with digital ID. As technology digital transformation is actually not continues to march ahead, the about tech or digital. The core of it opportunities for transformation is transformation as such – change. will only grow. If the Estonian Thus, to be able to benefit from digital experience can be useful for tools in global governance, we need transforming global arrangements to rethink how we do things on the or those of another country, the global level and boldly try out new government as well as private sector practices or methods that new digital experts of Estonia are always happy solutions allow for. to share.
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 51 MARCELLA ATZORI Marcella Atzori is an academic researcher affiliated to University College London, a leading international expert in blockchain governance and GovTech applications, and Blockchain Expert in the European Commission for industrial applications. As Blockchain Advisor for TrustedChain, the first permissioned blockchain of European Trust Service Providers, she regularly advises governments, institutions, SMEs, academic communities, and other relevant actors, helping them to follow-up closely the development of new decentralized applications, and evaluate challenges and opportunities for citizens, governments and services.
52 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 6. PROMOTING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AT THE GLOBAL LEVEL THROUGH THE BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGY 6. Promoting sustainable development at the global level through the blockchain technology
Marcella Atzori, academic researcher, University College London; Blockchain Expert in the European Commission for industrial applications.
How might we reduce the proportion of international aid money currently lost to corruption or inefficient intermediaries? A recent technological innovation, the blockchain, could offer a solution to this challenge. By design, the blockchain supports transparent and auditable transactions, and provides a way to automate the execution of agreements based on mutual satisfaction. With willingness to embrace this technology, the blockchain could therefore radically transform funding models for international organizations – and herald a new paradigm for global resource transfer.
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 53 6. PROMOTING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AT THE GLOBAL LEVEL THROUGH THE BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGY
he cost of funding the and administrative costs; and new United Nations is an ongoing opportunities for sharing data and T source of debate among the exchanging value between unknown populations of member countries. or untrusted participants. To make things worse, not all of these funds are deployed for their Importantly, the blockchain intended purpose: it has been enables a new ecology of data estimated that up to thirty percent governance, which is based on of development aid from UN funds neutrality, tamper-resistance and may be currently lost to corruption or transparency. This can hardly inefficient intermediaries2. However, be overstated. Indeed, thanks to a recent technological innovation, the the algorithmic protocols of the blockchain, could radically transform blockchain, digital transactions this situation. can be automatically executed on a large scale with reduced or no The blockchain technology has human intervention. Records of recently emerged as a disruptive such transactions are permanently element. The technology is able auditable and resistant to possible to automate the processes of data accidental errors, corruption or fraud verification, access and exchange by privileged insiders or third parties. through algorithmic protocols, The blockchain may thereby have with reduced reliance on trusted a number of particularly interesting authorities. Blockchain technology applications for international was developed in 2008 as the organizations. Any financial services underlying technology of Bitcoin, – from the management of UN funds the first peer-to-peer network for to microfinance projects – could decentralized and cashless payments. be directly provided to the parties Since then, it has proven its worth involved through peer-to-peer as a stand-alone computing and transactions, or managed in a more organizational paradigm, with transparent and effective fashion, numerous and significant benefits with reduced bureaucratic red tape for many different sectors – such as and counterparty risk. public administration, finance and banking, industry, healthcare, and The blockchain opens a possibility insurance. These benefits generally for self-enforcing agreements (or include: improved data security and smart contracts), digital escrows, integrity; better effectiveness of data which prevent the release of a management and workflows through payment until all of the terms of automation and disintermediation; an agreement are met, and multi- reduced need for infrastructures, signatures wallets, which require with substantial savings in time the consent of multiple parties for
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the execution of a payment or the may turn out to be ineffective. transfer of digitalized assets. These Sheltered from possible opportunistic could be successfully deployed to behaviors, dishonesty or general overcome difficulties related to the sluggishness on the part of traditional low recovery rate of micro-credit, financial actors and local operators, or to avoid problems typically agreements between parties could be associated with corruption, fraud, protected and automatically executed lack of transparency or moral hazard through the blockchain, in respect of from participants in the process of the original goals and obligations of international fund transfer – such as the subjects involved. International local intermediaries whose actions funds could thus be used with less cannot be monitored through the use friction and in a more effective way, of traditional financial instruments. leapfrogging long value chains and intermediaries, and substantially Moral hazard and adverse selection increasing the creation of social and – asymmetrical access to information economic value at local level, for the that benefits one of the parties in a benefit of the final users. At the same transaction – are common occurrence time, the complete traceability and among institutions and credit groups, transparency of transactions enabled especially in developing countries, by the blockchain would also prevent largely due to the lack of advanced any illicit action or misuse of financial regulation. They represent key reasons resources. The blockchain could why so many development projects hence be successfully integrated to the have failed in many parts of the world policy of the United Nations, NGOs in the last decades, and they must be and other global organizations, who prevented with great care, particularly have long called for a reliable financial when donors with sizable funds are and administrative structure through involved. which to promote specific objectives The blockchain may ensure the and monitor their real progress at local effectiveness of projects aimed at level. the redistribution of wealth and sustainable development, since it It is important to recall, however, provides for the transparency and that many issues still need to be auditability of transactions by-design addressed in the construction of a – namely throughout the engineering reliable blockchain-based governance process of digital platforms, with a model at the global level. This proactive and preventative approach – endeavour requires high levels of rather than by-policy, i.e. through anti- coordination and security, and corruption measures and subsequent involves great complexity. verifications of financial operations From a technical standpoint, by the competent authorities, which the first problem is to establish
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 55 The blockchain could be successfully integrated to the policy of the United Nations, NGOs and other global organizations, who have long called for a reliable financial and administrative structure through which to promote specific objectives and monitor their real progress at local level.
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well-defined quality standards in needs minimal infrastructure – such the industry. Blockchain networks as stable and high speed connectivity may present a number of crucial and a sufficient user base – as well as weaknesses, so it is fundamental computer literacy, and a sufficient for global organizations to rely degree of regulation expertise. In on trustworthy and secure digital many areas of the world where backbones that are able to guarantee populations are still struggling with high performance, legal compliance, subsistence farming, famine and and privacy. The underlying systems illiteracy, this is still only a long-term must also ensure continuity of prospect. service and long term preservation of data, from which depend the Since every country or region future execution of smart contracts has its own specific conditions, it and the persistence of digitalized is important to assess the potential assets over time. In this regard, the effectiveness of new technologies blockchain networks of Trust Service case by case, taking into account all Providers have recently emerged the relevant factors at the social and as infrastructures with the most anthropological levels. However, reliable certified standards at the through adequate local innovation international level, both in terms of policies, together with incubators and technical and management issues. small pilot projects run on secure and Further problems relating to the reliable platforms, the blockchain last section of the value chain must could be deployed to radically also be addressed before introducing transform the funding models for blockchain-based solutions in the international organizations– and management of international funds. herald a new paradigm for global The digitization of services generally resource transfer.
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 57 DAVID ORBAN David Orban is an investor, entrepreneur, author and speaker specializing in disruptive technologies. He has been an early adopter of blockchain technologies and an active Bitcoin investor since 2010. He is advisor & Faculty at Singularity University, a Founder of the Open Government Data working group, and an Advisor to the Institute of Ethics and Emergent Technologies as well as numerous start-ups in Europe and North America. He is the Founder and Managing Partner of Network Society Ventures, a global investment firm for start-ups at the intersection of exponential technologies and decentralized networks.
58 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 7. BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGY AND DECENTRALIZED GOVERNANCE
7. Blockchain technology and decentralized governance
David Orban, Advisor & Faculty, Singularity University; Founder and Managing Partner, Network Society Research.
In a context of exponential technological development, old centralized models of governance may be outdated. Opportunity may come from a new trend towards decentralization, which allows organizations facing global challenges to trial a range of novel solutions adapted to local contexts. In this perspective, what might be the role of the United Nations? It could operate as a platform, offering a neutral interface to facilitate interactions among a broad range of stakeholders. To bring this vision to life, the best vehicle would be an independent UN Labs that harnesses the potential of blockchain technology to support better global data flows, and catalyze the development of decentralized solutions to global challenges.
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echnological change is to dynamically decide how to allocate accelerating, and can be resources to achieve their goals. T simultaneously observed in Blockchain systems are based on a a range of uncorrelated industries. shared universal ledger that records Most evident in the information data, transactions, and agreements, and communication sector, it has allowing anybody to verify them created a globally connected world, without relying on a central authority. and exponentially increased the level This mechanism is already at work in of uncertainty around the globe. In open source software development, this context, centralized forecasting where the most popular software by hierarchical organizations has libraries are incorporated in a large become a blunt and inadaptive number of applications. But success tool – but opportunity may arise now goes beyond reputation, and from an increasing trend towards naturally includes an economic decentralization. dimension, as most blockchain systems incorporate a tradable Blockchain is emerging as one cryptographic token whose value of the key technologies to support reflects the popularity of the project. decentralized models of organization. Blockchain was invented in 2008, Decentralization has two main and implemented first in the benefits for organizations facing global Bitcoin cryptocurrency. Blockchain challenges. It allows them to more based solutions work on a network easily implement novel solutions, of computers or smartphones, and to trial variations on the same connected together over the Internet. solution. New approaches can be tried Its fundamental innovation is that in one part of the network with limited through novel use of cryptography risk and cost, and, if successful, easily and smart software, the nodes in the circulated, reproduced or adapted network are able to share inalterable across the entire organization. This data without a central authority. The model directly replicates evolution as system works even if the participants it occurs in biological systems, and is never met, or even if they do not crucial for creating resilient systems trust each other. While the first and adapted to their environment. still most prevalent application is We can do more than merely the storing and transfer of value, recognize the blind forces of evolution underpinning a true digital money in action. Since we can observe and native to the Internet, the ambitions evaluate their implications, orienting and potential applications of them in desirable directions becomes blockchain go beyond that field. possible. This new interplay promises The innovation of blockchain superior results. In a decentralized enables decentralized organizations structure, a wide variety of solutions
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can be implemented and tried rapidly and efficiently compared out on the basis of a shared global to systems that need to develop understanding and broad common ad-hoc interfaces, and to achieve policy directions. What needs to be qualitatively superior results. They done is understood globally; how it is do this by feeding data into the done is understood locally. process, supporting decision making by smartly aggregating opinions, and Decentralized organizations building consensus in a manner that are naturally non-exclusive, and goes beyond the mere dictatorship of not necessarily determined by the majority. geography: it is possible to belong to a decentralized organization regardless One key area where the UN could of one’s location, and to belong to operate as a platform is by providing several of them simultaneously. This access to open, transparent and is enabled by the real-time global accountable data flows in a neutral communications networks that have manner, in order to support a range been developed over the past thirty of practical applications addressing years. Various networks and their global challenges. Such data flows members now exist side by side, originate from sensor networks, which within shared social and physical are becoming ever more universally locations. This lack of physical deployed and connected – forming a separation imposes a much higher decentralized and distributed version degree of tolerance for diversity, of what is often referred to as ‘the and points towards a new kind of Internet of Things’. These sensors coexistence where disagreements provide a fundamental reading of cannot be resolved through physical objective reality. For example, private conflict. and public sources can independently fund numerous air quality monitoring In a world driven by decentralization stations deployed across a large and the emergence of the Network metropolitan area. Citizens can Society, organizations like the United make short- and long-term decisions Nations have the opportunity to based on the high quality, accessible, become a platform – an interface aggregated information that they to facilitate interaction and produce. This is already happening communication which is as neutral in Beijing, and is transforming as possible, and is not built on the the conversation around local assumption that identical solutions environmental policies. will work in different settings. Importantly, advanced information Blockchain technology would and communication technologies optimally support the aggregation allow platforms to operate more of those various data flows, because
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 61 In a world driven by decentralization and the emergence of the Network Society, organizations like the United Nations have the opportunity to become a platform – an interface to facilitate interaction and communication which is as neutral as possible, and is not built on the assumption that identical solutions will work in different settings.
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of its transparent and accountable be to develop and rapidly release nature. but implementation must be blockchain based components that done in a nimble manner. A potential can be made available to developers vehicle could be a new UN Labs, which worldwide. Possible applications should be isolated and protected should not be established by the from the larger body of the United laboratory itself or larger UN Nations. It is naive to believe that a agencies. Because the platform is large organization such as the UN neutral, and because access to data can be easily reformed: there is often is open and unfettered, thousands a protection mechanism, a veritable of unexpected, creative and valuable immune system, that maintains the solutions could flourish, developed by established practices of hierarchical other entities: government agencies, bureaucracies, and is able to produce NGOs, and private corporations. honest justifications for killing new The measure of success for the UN initiatives, even if they are wrong. Labs would be objective: running code, used in thousands of places The mandate of the UN Labs should worldwide, powering applications come directly from the highest installed in billions of mobile functions, ideally from the Secretary phones, supporting the design and General. Its resources could be deployment of tens or hundreds of relatively modest, but it must recruit billions of sensors. a combination of highly qualified Giving access to blockchain new staff and self-selecting members based decentralized data sources from across as many agencies as and applications will allow a new possible. This will ensure novel dynamic balance to emerge. It will technical capacities, while preserving yield resilient local solutions to access to and deep understanding of global challenges, and fundamentally organizational mechanisms. increase the adaptability of human The objective of the UN Labs would societies in the 21st century.
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 63 PETER WELLS Peter Wells is Head of Policy at the Open Data Institute. He works with governments and businesses around the world. Previously, Peter spent over 20 years in the telecommunications industry, worked in a voluntary role to organize an independent review of digital government policy for the UK Labour Party and experimented with creating a collaboratively maintained open address register.
ANNA SCOTT Anna is Head of Content at the Open Data Institute. She manages its brand and outputs across channels. Anna was previously a journalist at the Guardian, where she wrote and commissioned content on global development, and helped establish the Center for Global Development’s Europe office, working on policy outreach across programs.
ALEX LEON As Junior Consultant at the Open Data Institute, Alex works across a range of international projects, supporting open data initiatives across Europe and Africa with workshop design and facilitation as well as strategic communications advice.
64 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 8. GLOBAL CHALLENGES CALL FOR BETTER DATA INFRASTRUCTURE
8. Global challenges call for better data infrastructure
Peter Wells, Head of Policy; Anna Scott, Head of Content; Alex Leon, Junior Consultant, Open Data Institute.
Today, we can gather and aggregate data more easily than ever before, but how can we best harness the potential of this data to improve the lives of people and address the world’s most pressing challenges? Building the right systems will involve strengthening data infrastructure, making more data open, promoting data skills and fostering innovation. In supporting this effort and addressing new challenges around ethics, engagement and equity, global governance institutions will have a crucial role to play.
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ince the founding of the United and available to all. We connect Nations in 1945, the landscape road networks at local, national and S in which global governance global levels. We teach people the institutions operate has changed. skills they need to use roads and Today, we can gather and aggregate take action if they drive badly. We data more easily than at any time develop a range of organizations in history, whether it be data about to support the operations of road people – such as population statistics infrastructure, including transport – or the natural and built environment planners, construction companies, – such as weather patterns, crop yields driving instructors and traffic police. and traffic information. This creates Data infrastructure is similar: it is not huge potential to improve the lives of just the data but also the surrounding citizens everywhere, a mandate that ecosystem that needs to be built and has generally been adopted primarily strengthened. by global governance institutions. Data exists on a spectrum, from To help solve today’s global closed data (held within one challenges, however, we need to organization), to data shared (between do more than publish this data. We individuals or organizations), all the must build a system that will use it way to open data (available for anyone to make more timely and informed to access, use and share). The more decisions. To do this, the global people use a particular dataset, the governance community must focus more insights are generated from it, on four key areas: strengthening and the more impact it has. Therefore, data infrastructure, making more the foundational data that has the data open, promoting data skills and potential to solve global challenges fostering innovation. must be open.
‘Data’ has become a widely used Open data is already yielding word, and its meaning is often significant benefits in allowing us to unclear. We understand ‘data’ as any map, monitor and respond to extreme information about people, places and events. When hurricanes recently things across the world, existing in wreaked havoc across the Caribbean, digital or other formats. over 2,800 volunteers across the world Data is an emerging infrastructure added buildings to open mapping data that all sectors of the economy on the platform OpenStreetMap. This increasingly rely on. It helps us make allowed global aid organizations to more informed, timely decisions conduct rapid damage assessments. as individuals, organizations and Community initiatives are replicating societies. similar projects to address localized Data should be like roads. Nations issues, such as Dar Ramani Huria, invest in roads to make them reliable which maps the areas within the
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Tanzanian city of Dar es Salaam that In 2015, the UK Department of are most prone to flooding. Environment, Food & Rural Affairs Global initiatives are emerging as (Defra) engaged external experts awareness of data and its potential to show their public servants how grows. The Global Partnership for opening data could enhance their Sustainable Development Data, for current and future work. Roundtables example, focuses on maximizing were held with private sector and data’s potential to tackle challenges civil society stakeholders to find like extreme poverty, climate areas where they could collaborate. change and epidemic disease. The Through this open approach to International Aid Transparency innovation, Defra improved flood Initiative and Open Contracting risk management and farming, have developed standards for saved money for researchers and publishing international aid data and campaigners, and strengthened procurement data, so that it can better relationships. In Mexico, the support decision making. government worked with civic organizations and start ups, through To meet global challenges, an incubation program called Labora, institutions must also increase the to open data that could help them number of people who can use data solve problems and create social and across all levels of their organizations. economic impact. Open data is not a purely technical matter. We need to develop better data While recognizing the potential of literacy for all, data science skills, and data, we must also identify challenges experience using data as a tool to solve in how data can and is being used. problems. Many governments and businesses After taking its first steps in building sell or hoard data that should be data infrastructure, the Tanzanian either openly available or kept closed government worked with the Open and private. This has led to a trust Data Institute, the World Bank and deficit between individuals and the the UK government to help build organizations that handle data, and capability both in government and limits its effective use. It risks people society. The government was then able and society withdrawing permission to harness this initial support to build for data to be collected or used. sustainable data initiatives that could We face significant gaps in three improve the lives of its citizens. areas that need to be addressed in order to build the necessary trust. Finally, the capacity to derive First, we must ensure that data is benefits from data infrastructure and collected, used and shared in an data literacy depends on a culture of ethical way, considering potential open innovation. unintended consequences from
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 67 Global institutions must recognize the opportunity to develop a robust data infrastructure, and the associated challenges of ethics, equity and engagement.
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program design to delivery. Second, through data infrastructure, skills and those holding data should support open innovation will take time, but it equitable access to and use of it. will be necessary for data to reach its Finally, we must engage and empower full potential. Global institutions must citizens to have a say in how data is or recognize the opportunity to develop isn’t used. a robust data infrastructure, and the associated challenges of ethics, equity Over the next few years, there will and engagement. be a growing need for existing, or For this, they need to start with new, global governance institutions to targeted aspects of global problems, tackle these challenges. and work with other global International standards for data institutions, governments, businesses protection and open data evolved and civil society, to tackle them using from the Universal Declaration of data. Learning lessons, before scaling, Human Rights, principles like those is the best way to help everyone learn developed by the OECD in 1980, and how to use data better. through pressure from international Each day, data plays a vital role movements such as the Open in helping individuals, businesses Government Partnership. and governments make decisions. Reimagining what data access and Now, global institutions must lead protection rights are needed in the 21st systemic change to solve global century, fostering the necessary global challenges through the possibilities agreements, and creating change it offers.
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 69 THE DATA SPECTRUM3
Small/Medium/Big data
Personal/Commersial/Government data
Internal Named Group-based Public Anyone access access access access
Employment Explicitly contract + assigned by Via authenti- License that policies contract cation limits the user Open license
Sales Driving Medical reports licenses research Twitter feed Bus timetable
Closed Shared Open
70 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 71 CHACKO THOMAS Chacko Thomas is an experienced consultant and researcher in the field of energy systems and climate change regulation and policy. He is an Electrical Engineer, with a Masters in Energy Studies and Environmental Law. Chacko’s doctoral research lies at the intersection of ‘complexity science’ and environmental regulation. In the emerging reality of the Internet of Things, Chacko seeks to understand how environmental policy and regulation adapt to meet the needs and challenges of a rapidly evolving technological landscape.
72 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 9. THE INTERNET OF THINGS – COORDINATING DATA FOR BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT AND REPORTING 9. The Internet of Things – coordinating data for better environmental management and reporting
Chacko Thomas, Researcher, Climate and Environmental Governance Network (CEGNET), Australian National University.
The Internet of Things is an emerging network where integrated sensors, communicating through the Internet, generate diverse, granular and real-time data. This technology could revolutionize the way that we monitor the economy and our environment, and respond to risks and challenges. What steps do we need to take so that the Internet of Things can effectively support evidence-based and data-driven decision making to benefit humanity? Four areas require particular attention. We must build understanding of this new paradigm, including its limitations; we must shift our discourse from ‘Big’ to ‘Smart’ data; we must embrace open data; and we must unify data standards around the world.
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s we stand at the cusp of automated and connected vehicles an environmental data have the potential to make cities A revolution, harmonising greener by reducing congestion, and data governance requirements is improve safety and road conditions vital to ensure that evidence-based through preventative and targeted and data-driven decision making can maintenance. Real-time and remote benefit humanity. The Internet of monitoring of lifestyle practices Things (IoT) is the name given to an could reduce healthcare costs, while emerging integrated technological improving overall health and well- network, where digital and sensor being. Therefore, as the IoT becomes technologies embedded in vehicles, more ubiquitous, it will increasingly buildings and other physical devices be viewed as a means of achieving can communicate with each other the Sustainable Development Goals using the Internet. Consequently, the (SDGs). Furthermore, coupled IoT promises the potential to create with open government, data and an electronic skin to monitor our technologies, it has the potential environment, driven by scalability to improve the transparency of the and virtually endless connections. decision making process. Present day examples include Smart homes (e.g. NEST and Amazon Contemporary applications echo), Wearables (e.g. Fitbit), Smart of the IoT in the environmental Cities, as well as autonomous and monitoring field include natural connected vehicles, while planetary disaster warning systems, flood scale visions include IBM’s Smarter management, smart agriculture and Planet and HP’s Central Nervous air quality monitoring. Given that Systems for the Earth (CeNSE). the applications are diverse and vary across time and scale, the IoT Today, relatively inexpensive provides us with analytical tools IoT devices are being deployed on to understand local, regional and a large scale, generating diverse, global environmental changes in granular and real-time data. By near real-time. By accessing data accessing this rich data, the IoT from these systems and applications, makes otherwise labour-intensive decision and support systems for processes simpler, more efficient early detection and responses can be and cost-effective. In this emerging built to better influence and direct reality, the IoT offers the possibility preparation efforts and emergency for new forms of compliance response, thereby minimising loss monitoring and evidence-based of life and property. Thus, the IoT regulation, and could revolutionise could not only become a tool for the way we monitor the economy understanding complexity, but also a and our environment. For example means of responding swiftly.
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It is worth noting that there are For example, air quality monitoring many stakeholders and actors sensors could be deployed on city in the environmental field, who buildings, lighting poles, and on use different vocabularies and vehicles. However, since devices may technologies – and this raises a vary in quality, be used by people challenge. Traditionally, there with different training and skillsets, has been little interaction across and the data generated may or may environmental domains, resulting in not be quality controlled, we cannot data silos. In contrast, the IoT vision place the same trust in these devices hinges on device connectivity and as we do with traditional monitoring unencumbered data flow, within equipment. Therefore a range of organisations and sectors, and across frameworks and clear guidelines sectoral domains. For this imminent must be developed to increase data future to become a reality, we need reliability and trust. to bridge the incongruity between digital opportunities and traditional Secondly, as environmental IoT governance. Consequently, four areas devices become more ubiquitous, we require particular attention. need to shift the dominant discourse and practices from ‘Big’ to ‘Smart’ First, we need to build greater data – i.e. towards devices and data understanding of this new that are fit for purpose in relation technological paradigm among to their application. In particular, leading actors – particularly data for policy and/or compliance regarding its limitations. Until monitoring needs to be of higher recently, monitoring the environment quality than data used for general had a specific purpose (such as air awareness raising. Alas, currently, or water monitoring, to measure we do not distinguish between pollution levels), it relied on device and/or data quality. Given the specialised equipment and trained imminent deployment of billions of personnel, and generally followed sensors, this problem is exacerbated international or national standards. all the more. Additionally, we Such monitoring processes yielded presently don’t know how sensors limited data, but decision makers will deteriorate over time in the real could have clear appreciation for its world, and what impact this may have quality, reliability and consistency. on the data generated. Presently, the same is not true for data collected through IoT devices. Thirdly, while governments Given the relatively cheap costs have embraced open data, certain of sensors, mass deployment by companies are increasingly closing different agencies or organisations for up their datasets or making them the same application is a possibility. available for a fee or via license.
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 75 Given that data is regarded as the oil of the 21st Century, the IoT can act as a catalyst to achieve the SDGs and accelerate the rate of global development. However, to do so, the flow of development data – environmental, economic and social – has to be unencumbered to prevent a new digital divide from occurring.
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Given that data is regarded as the the next generation of innovations oil of the 21st Century, the IoT can in environmental regulation will act as a catalyst to achieve the SDGs remain inconsistent, and in some way and accelerate the rate of global abstract. development. However, to do so, the flow of development data – Finally, unifying standards is of environmental, economic and social crucial importance. Environmental – has to be unencumbered to prevent data is produced by many a new digital divide from occurring. stakeholders, including government If private stakeholders increasingly departments and agencies, private close their datasets, it will result companies, community groups, in what one may call ‘the tragedy NGOs, citizens, etc. Hence, while of commodification’, resulting in standards help to consolidate a situation akin to “water, water technology, networks and data everywhere, nor any drop to drink”. requirements, and assist with This, unfortunately, seems to be the interoperability within a given sector current trend with environmental or environmental domain, they fall data. Certain companies while short in cross-sectoral coordination. providing users’ control of who sees By overcoming the siloed nature of their data may not allow users to environmental regulatory practice, delete, update and amend machine, we must develop adaptive policy to production or administrative data. inform stakeholders on the ever- Furthermore, they treat the large changing natural environment. amounts of data generated by their This new form of policy needs to be devices as a private resource to be informed by a ‘connected collective harnessed for profit. Consequently, intelligence’, resulting from the without discoverability, availability, synergistic interaction between accessibility and (re)usability of data, humans and the multitude of ‘things.’
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 77 TASHA MCCAULEY Tasha McCauley is a technology entrepreneur living in Los Angeles. Her current work with GeoSim Systems centers around a new technology that produces high- resolution, fully interactive virtual models of cities. Prior to her work with GeoSim, she co-founded Fellow Robots, a robotics company based in Silicon Valley. She co- directs Ten to the Ninth Plus Foundation, an organization focused on empowering exponential technological change worldwide.
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10. Making big data intuitive – the challenge of representation
Tasha McCauley, Board Member, GeoSim Systems.
New technologies allow us to gather more data than ever before. However, what use is all this data if decision makers cannot access its meaning? The information revolution is not just about aggregating more information, but also creating better ways of visualizing it. Recent advances make it possible to create virtual models of entire cities and run accurate simulations of future scenarios, giving experts and non- experts a visceral experience of potential catastrophes such as major floods. This could create a powerful drive towards action and support better decision making on the most pressing global challenges – as long as institutional practice embraces the possibilities offered by these new modes of data visualization.
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n the movie Amadeus, the New technological developments composer Salieri reads Mozart’s promise a golden age of data I music off the page and, without visualization. The idea that we can hearing a single note played aloud, get real-time information about exclaims “It is miraculous!” Salieri is objects in our physical environment an expert: he can hear the music in is already pervasive. The Internet his head with near-perfect fidelity. In of Things increasingly monitors many disciplines, as in music, only the physical world with embedded experts can experience the meaning sensor technology, providing us of symbols directly. The vast majority with information about everything of us can only have direct experience from smart grids and smart homes when our senses are engaged – when to biochips and heart monitor the orchestra plays. implants. But as we use sensors to Despite the fact that 90% of the record information about the objects global datasphere was created in that surround us, we are creating the last two years4, its meaning will an absolute flood of data. We must remain largely invisible to us until represent that data in a way that is we can set it against backdrops we natural for humans to understand understand. The term “information – a way that better couples the revolution” is often used to describe information to the human nervous the exponential advancement of system. This will be increasingly technologies that generate, transmit, important as we analyze data on and store information, but the real larger scales. revolution will be one of context. Cities are an important focal point When we think about how to when considering approaches to protect civilization from physical mitigating catastrophic risk. Google catastrophe, it is clear that intuitive and Apple have both done exemplary representation of data about the jobs of capturing and modeling cities physical world allows for better at great scale from the air, but not decision making. We need to display with the street-level accuracy and data gathered from the world around geometric detail that enables the kind us in a way that helps us assess and of intuitive data representation we’re plan for global risks, and better talking about. forecast their local impact. This Very recent advances in technology applies both to decision makers and have made it possible to build to the public. If governance is to virtual models of entire cities with become more inclusive, information centimetric precision, and these must become more egalitarian. models can generate accurate Better presenting it is part of this visualizations of real city-related effort. data. The combination of ultra-high
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spatial precision and visual resolution we look at one of these, our nervous gives rise to functionalities that systems are barely engaged. We’re not were not possible before. Objects driven to act. in a virtual city model of this kind – windows, fire hydrants, parking But if we immerse ourselves – either meters, power transformers, vehicles with a laptop or in full VR – in a precise – can have discrete identities and be 3D model of a city, and run a dynamic part of a searchable database. Data simulation of the same flood zone data, from IoT sensors in the real, physical our nervous systems kick into gear. As city can now be linked directly to we manually change the water level, the corresponding objects in the we see the water lapping at the doors of 3D city model. The data can then individual office buildings and coffee be visualized in real time, not on a shops in neighborhoods we know. We 2D dashboard with numerical and can observe, at the spatial precision of graphical displays, but in the virtual a few centimeters, whether a bridge copy of the physical location where will be inaccessible, or whether an the information is actually being unprotected power substation will be generated in the city. submerged. We can see where the best escape routes would be and where we’d Here’s why this is so powerful need to dispatch first responders and for catastrophic risk mitigation: not emergency personnel. The technology only can we use high-fidelity models removes the task of interpretation and to track and visualize all kinds of replaces it with what comes naturally human activity, but we can run to human beings: immersion and highly accurate simulations of future interaction. scenarios in order to quantify the From there, we can imagine a world effects, and visualize them. Using where all of that information isn’t just these simulations, experts, non- shared within a city, but also between expert city officials, and city residents and among cities: an expanding alike can get a visceral understanding global network of virtual cities that of what would happen in the case of, exchange information in order to say, a major flood caused by rising sea educate, optimize, heal and self- levels. construct, sharing the best practices Anyone who has seen a standard discovered by each in order to raise the 2D flood zone map knows that they’re effectiveness of every city as they plan far from emotionally riveting. They for the future. have legends, symbols, and shadings that require interpretation. And they However, institutional practice is are static. Unlike real water, nothing still decoupled from the capabilities moves. This is a tool with which city of technology. We know that good officials plan for floods, but when visualization works. But we’re still
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 81 Institutional practice is still decoupled from the capabilities of technology. We know that good visualization works. But we’re still expecting people – and particularly decision makers – to understand data by reading it off of a page.
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expecting people – and particularly read the code, and entering a new decision makers – to understand era in which the visualization of data by reading it off of a page. Both complex data will become a living the public and representatives of the performance, contoured for our public need tools that enable them human senses. This will enable all to model and visualize risks in a way of us to experience meaning more that compels them to act. naturally, and inspire us to take We’re leaving behind a time when actions that will preserve the places – only Salieri-like experts could and principles – we value most.
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 83 WILLIAM HAMILTON Before dropping out to become an entrepreneur, William was a researcher in clinical psychology at Stockholm University. In 2014 he founded Mimerse with the mission of spreading evidence based psychological treatments through immersive technology. He also co-founded Vobling, a leading VR/AR-agency with offices in Stockholm, Manila and Lagos servicing world leading brands, corporations and institutions.
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11. Governance in the age of Virtual Reality – from data to experience
William Hamilton, Founder, Mimerse.
Virtual reality is an immersive technology that produces the illusion of real presence in a virtual environment – allowing its users to receive a mediated experience rather than be presented with information. What should decision makers know about an innovation that, with large investments from major industry players, will become commonplace in the coming decades? The technology is about to radically change the way we conduct meetings and conceive of interpersonal relationships. Soon, fully virtual summits will be commonplace, and the perspectives gained from immersive VR experiences could be harnessed to make decision making processes at major governance events more conscientious and collaborative.
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R is on the far end of a mixed technology is therefore increasingly reality (MR) continuum that critical for decision makers and V ranges from augmenting leaders. part of the real world with virtual VR technology is commonly objects to fully immersive systems. referred to as an “empathy machine” Consumer interest and adoption of due to the effect it can have on MR has accelerated recently with users. Instead of being presented apps like Pokémon Go going viral with information, the user receives and most big hardware companies a mediated experience. VR makes releasing VR headsets and platforms. it possible to step into a first person Mixed reality technologies will perspective and feel what it is like soon become commonplace, and to be in a warzone or a flooded area. are widely seen as the future of There is a common saying that computing. In a recent keynote leaders are too far removed from the at Oculus, a division of Facebook people: VR has an obvious role to play specialising in the development of VR in that area, as it can bring powerful technology, Mark Zuckerberg set the decision makers in closer connection goal of getting 1 billion people inside with the people affected by their VR – the technology today only has decisions. around 10 million users. Microsoft Some early instances of has extended their Windows platform development show great promise. to fully support immersive and spatial The UN co-produced a documentary computing with Windows Mixed on the Syrian Refugee crisis from Reality, and Magic Leap, a secretive the perspective of a young girl. It company that hasn’t unveiled a premiered at the World Economic product yet but is promising a Forum in Davos and allowed leaders revolutionary mixed reality display and potential donors to feel the plight technology, is raising money at a 6bn of refugees with a level of empathy USD valuation. that had never been possible before. This VR experience was later used These and other massive in a fundraising event in Kuwait in investments by leading technology March 2015 that raised 3.8bn USD. companies are quickly expanding the market, applications and capabilities VR not only carries the possibility of VR, making possible things that, of making stories and experiences so far, have only been seen in science immediately felt at a distance, but fiction. In the coming decades, VR it can make the world itself feel and its related technologies will smaller than ever before. In the develop from novel to truly disruptive 1960s, Steward Brand successfully and commonplace. Paying attention campaigned for NASA to release a to the possibilities opened by the photo of the entire planet seen from
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space. Brand thought that this image impact and outcomes of their would be a powerful uniting symbol decisions, with areas of application for humanity. With Google Earth VR, ranging from infrastructure you can now access a similar image development to climate change and of the whole planet, spin the globe, wars. A UK Startup, Improbable, is pick a location, and zoom all the way building an engine for such complete to the ground level, until you find simulations and recently raised a yourself standing on the street. $500M series B round. Receiving such an experience of the likely long-term In a future where self-driving impacts of policy could profoundly cars, wearables and drones, all change global governance. equipped with cameras, become VR is also about to change commonplace, companies like Google meetings and interpersonal will be able to aggregate information relationships. Microsoft R&D has from these devices to create and already demonstrated a feasible maintain a perpetually updated, concept for full telepresence through high resolution 3D model of the human holograms. Real time entire earth. Imagine if the people 3D scans will make it possible to involved in each negotiation with interact at a distance with a much consequences for a certain border, higher quality of human contact village or landmass could actually than what is possible through video visit that place in real time through conferencing today. Participants VR? They would be able to directly will be able to hold and sustain eye empathize and hold a less abstract contact, communicate through body perspective on the issue at hand. language, and experience mutual Today, in international forums, VR is closeness. still an accessory to the main event, but this may be about to change. It Communicating this way opens should become an obligatory part of up a plethora of possibilities, the process to take a virtual survey particularly when combined with of the regions involved before sitting other technological developments. down for a discussion. This would Imagine being able to customize your lead to more conscientious, rational own avatar to any appearance, while and collaborative discussions and ensuring that your facial and bodily decisions. movements are perfectly mapped With Google Earth VR, it is already in real time to this virtual avatar, possible to adjust the time of day and directly conveying emotion. Imagine see the world under different lights. being able to integrate real time Imagine running more advanced translation to a distance interaction, simulations that allow negotiators removing the need for translators. to actually experience the simulated This prospect could make the huge
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 87 Today, in international forums, VR is still an accessory to the main event, but this may be about to change. It should become an obligatory part of the process to take a virtual survey of the regions involved before sitting down for a discussion. This would lead to more conscientious, rational and collaborative discussions and decisions.
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machine of the UN translation making processes will hopefully system obsolete in the coming become more constructive, thanks decades. Taking it even one step to the gained perspectives that come further, imagine being able to remap with the power to go anywhere and emotions and body language, so that experience anything. Thanks to personal communication styles are the exponential development of its better matched, and greater intuitive enabling technologies, VR, MR and alignment becomes possible. AR will create a new era not only in In the area of global governance, human computer interaction, but in fully evolved mixed reality will human to human interaction – and bring revolutionary change. Soon radically shift our perspective on enough, fully virtual summits will ourselves, our globe, and the fabric of be commonplace, and decision reality itself.
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 89 PABLO SUAREZ Pablo Suarez is associate director for research and innovation at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, and a scholar at Boston University and University College London. He has consulted for the UN Development Programme, the World Food Programme, the World Bank, Oxfam, and twenty other humanitarian and development organizations, working in more than sixty countries. His current work ranges from financial instruments to machine learning to collaboration with artists to inspire thinking and action.
90 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 12. RETHINKING THE FUTURE OF GOVERNANCE THROUGH GAMES
12. Rethinking the future of governance through games
Pablo Suarez, Associate Director for Research and Innovation, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre.
At major governance events, the present modes of interaction are far from optimal: as long as sequences of unidirectional statements followed by insufficient Q&A continue to prevail, can we expect any genuine change? Serious gameplay, uniquely conducive to systems thinking, could provide a precious alternative. Games have been harnessed in a range of development projects, and resulted in major breakthroughs. Games could reveal systemic shortcomings in current frameworks, they could deepen the role of citizens in day-to-day governance mechanisms, and even improve the workings of major UN bodies. They could trigger new ways of approaching unfamiliar problems, and harness the power of creative thinking to develop new solutions for the world’s greatest challenges.
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hanges in governance like well-designed governance happen at the speed of trust. systems, involve decisions with C Regrettably, our current ways consequences: a set of simple rules of approaching governance change engenders emergent complexity. seem rather slow to engender trust. Participants can explore new ways to This is particularly true in the realm address threats and opportunities, of climate risks: threats are rising while bonding and building trust in faster than our collective ability to ways that are both serious and fun. understand and address causes and Games are uniquely conducive to consequences. systems thinking. They compress Part of the problem is the way we space and time, and offer an choose to interact during governance embodied experience of the tensions events. A large proportion of the that dominate governance challenges interaction time is dominated –“now versus later”, “certainly by traditional meeting formats, versus probably”, “me versus us such as the dreadful sequence versus them”. Importantly, through of presentations followed by gameplay, people combine the insufficient Q&A. Unidirectional concentration of analytical rigor with statements dominate, establishing the intuitive freedom of imaginative, an atmosphere of ‘more of the artistic acts. As a result, game- same’, and rarely leading to enabled processes that capture the genuine transformation in ideas essence of real-world systems allow and positions. To help participants for safe and rich explorations of how meaningfully rethink the future and those systems could be changed. their role in it, a different approach is In the words of SimCity creator needed. Will Wright: “Games amplify our imagination, like cars amplify our Games5 offer a promising option. legs, or houses amplify our skins.” They present playable system dynamic models that can help In a range of projects that engaged people and organizations inhabit the the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate complexity of future risks. As digital Centre, the World Bank, Oxfam, technology spread to the mainstream the UN World Food Programme, in the last decades, video games have NASA and many other partners, emerged as an increasingly popular breakthroughs in humanitarian and cultural phenomenon. In turn, this development work have emerged has led to broad interest in game through gameplay. mechanics as a way to approach Illiterate Ethiopian farmers who strategic challenges in a range of don’t have a word for ‘insurance’ in sectors, whether on digital platforms their local language took part in a or face to face. Well-designed games, game with dice and beans designed
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to help them learn about parametric feasible option to deliberately insurance bundled with credit. manipulate the global climate by They tried to resolve obstacles by spreading sulfur in the stratosphere ‘hacking’ the system. In doing so, in order to obstruct sunlight and they proposed key innovations, such reverse the effect of global warming. as paying premiums through labor, At a 2017 conference in Berlin, a and measures to combine individual game session explored potential protection with resilience-building governance mechanisms for mechanisms at the community level. geoengineering. Changing regional These evolved into the “R4 Rural climates were embodied through Resilience” initiative6 currently foam dice, where 1 marked a drought providing microinsurance services and 6 a flood. The shape of the to over 200,000 farmers in five dice became more irregular over developing countries. time, making extreme events more likely. After a few rounds, teams A game called “Paying for had the option to hack the climate. Predictions” brought together Red The geoengineering technology Cross volunteers with donors and was represented by an electric hydro-meteorological experts in knife that could chop off pieces of Africa, Asia and the Americas. It foam – hopefully bringing regional revealed that funding for disaster climates to more ‘normal’ behavior management materializes after a in the short-term, but with unclear disaster, but that no mechanism implications for other regions. was in place for shifting money When one participant actually tried to areas where science indicates to alter the climate, a remarkable unusual likelihood of an extreme range of reactions emerged from event before a disaster strikes. other individuals and teams – from Rapid funding triggered by early silent endorsement to self-sacrifice warnings could enable early action, and even threat of nuclear war. The drastically reducing the impact of discussion that ensued had a level extreme events. Thus “Forecast- of emotional intensity that brought based Financing”7 was born, and visceral realism to the intellectual is currently being implemented in examination of potential governance Bangladesh, Peru, Togo, Uganda and frameworks to prevent predatory numerous other countries, where geoengineering8. science and finance work in alliance to act faster, averting disaster. Games supporting the development There are currently no governance of better governance mechanisms mechanisms regulating the research have been played from fishing and potential deployment of villages in Fiji to IPCC9 working ‘geoengineering’ – the technically groups of Nobel-prize winning
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 93 Games are uniquely conducive to systems thinking. They compress space and time, and offer an embodied experience of the tensions that dominate governance challenges.
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scientists, and from the Ugandan – including the security council Parliament to the White House10. – by enabling a more genuine, Platforms ranged from amphitheaters informal, out-of-the-box dialogue with 2500 participants to immersive built on shared rules in pursuit of solo experiences in virtual reality11. creative thinking and trust building. The principles, methods and Games create a safe space that practices of serious gameplay could encourages players to switch roles, be further harnessed to develop and experience the consequences global governance opportunities in of their decisions from numerous three main areas. perspectives. They trigger new ways of imagining an issue, and new ways First, playable explorations of of addressing it. system dynamics can accelerate Of course, games are no panacea: learning and dialogue about complex like all forms of designed interaction, issues, improving stakeholder things can go wrong. But a growing participation, revealing systemic body of evidence and experience shortcomings and prompting suggests that games can help nurture reflection on systemic improvement. learning and dialogue processes, so Second, engagement games12 can be that they become more anticipatory, integrated to day-to-day governance more inclusive, and more imbued mechanisms and deepen the role of with trust. Notably, fun is functional citizens in global-to-local institutions, to governance explorations. Games involving people in data collection offer familiar structures designed to and analysis, policy development allow us to play with the unfamiliar, or decentralized decision making. enabling us to reimagine the space Third, well-designed games could of possibility latent in our shared improve the workings of UN bodies futures.
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 95 ROBIN HANSON Robin Hanson is an Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University, and Research Associate at the Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University. He has long studied prediction markets, developing the commonly used market scoring rule, and was a principle architect of the first corporate markets at Xanadu in 1990, DARPA’s Policy Analysis Market in 2003, and IARPA’s DAGGRE in 2011. Oxford University Press published his book The Age of Em: Work, Love and Life When Robots Rule the Earth in 2016, and will publish The Elephant in the Brain: Hidden Motive in Everyday Life in 2018.
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13. Decision markets for global governance
Robin Hanson, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, George Mason University; Research Associate, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University.
At present, it is hard for ordinary world citizens to judge the quality of global governance choices. It would be feasible, however, to create open “decision markets” where traders could speculate on the outcomes of particular global policy choices. On the basis of information developed through those markets, rather than simply trust their representatives to negotiate the right outcomes in relatively opaque governance forums, global citizens could pressure governments to sup- port the choices that they believe will most benefit them.
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ations today jealously Second, this alternative requires guard their autonomy. As a us to choose and support a few focal N result, institutions of global after-the-fact global outcome metrics governance tend to rely less on clear relevant to each set of clear discrete rules enforced by authorities with choices. For example, world product formal power, and more on opaque in the years after a trade treaty, or information sharing that influences war deaths in the years after a peace private negotiations and perceived treaty. norms and agendas. Outsiders can Given such clear discrete policy find it hard to judge the concrete choices and related outcome metrics, policy implications of global we could create “decision markets”, governance choices, or even what wherein traders can speculate on choices have been made. these focal outcomes, given particular And this can make it hard for policy choices. If trading in these ordinary world citizens to judge the markets were sufficiently subsidized, quality of global governance choices. either via subsidized market makers Citizens must trust their governments or via market estimates influencing to have negotiated in their interest, contentious policies, then the and to have done so effectively. policy estimates produced by these Which can be a lot to ask. Can we do markets should be as accurate as any better? competing source of information. An alternative exists that could allow better global governance, For example, imagine that a by helping global citizens to more particular global-warming treaty directly judge the quality of global is under active consideration. It choices. This alternative is simple might or might not be signed by and low-tech, and nations need not a particular plurality of nations. give up any more of their autonomy. And it has the stated purpose of This alternative, however, does have influencing outcomes such as global two requirements. sea levels, storm damage, and crop yields, over the coming decades. First, it applies only to cases where For concreteness, let us focus on a global governance can allow for particular measure of average global clear, discrete choices. For example, sea levels in thirty years. a particular treaty might or might In this specific example, we would not be signed. Or a particular create two speculative markets, governance body might rule one way each of which gives one conditional or another. While such clear discrete estimate. One estimate would be choices may not be the usual case, of that particular sea level metric they do happen often enough to be conditional on the treaty being worth improving. signed. The other estimate would be
98 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 2.1. DECISION MARKETS FOR GLOBAL GOVERNANCE
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 99 A large empirical literature consistently shows that open speculative markets are among our best institutions for aggregating information into robust estimates available to all. Decision market estimates would thus offer global citizens a clear visible consensus on the effects of discrete global governance choices.
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of sea level conditional on the treaty estimates available to all. Such not being signed. The difference markets have done well at estimating between these estimates corresponds weather, sales, elections, project to the best estimate of market completion dates, and more. They are speculators regarding the effect of especially resistant to manipulation this global warming treaty on this sea and able to identify and correct for level measure. their own biases. Decision market To pay off these bets, and thus estimates would thus offer global to reward speculators for making citizens a clear visible consensus accurate estimates, we don’t need to on the effects of discrete global know the actual causal connection governance choices. between this treaty and sea levels. Global citizens could then pressure We just need to know what sea levels governments to support the choices finally were, and if the treaty was that they expect will benefit them. signed. Such citizens would have less need to trust their governments to negotiate As another example, imagine opaque global governance outcomes that a new treaty might be signed in their interest. Even as nations to create stronger intellectual retain all of their existing autonomy. property protection, in order to Which could be a big win for effective better promote technological global governance. innovation. Here we might create markets that estimate world product It is possible, of course, to imagine in twenty years, conditional on this lots of potential problems with treaty being signed, or not being this proposal, including noise, signed. The difference between sabotage, media distortions, unequal these two estimates would say how participation, and selection biases. much speculators expect stronger But most of these problems are intellectual property to promote more imagined than real. And as growth worldwide. these markets can be quite cheap, A large empirical literature if they fail for some reason, such as consistently shows that open insufficient traders or citizen interest, speculative markets such as these we would have only lost a small are among our best institutions for financial investment. So, what are we aggregating information into robust waiting for?
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 101 JAY NAIDOO Jay Naidoo was the founding General Secretary of the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) and served as a Minister in Nelson Mandela’s Cabinet. He is currently a trustee for Earthrise Trust, looking at new models of rural development and livelihoods. He sits on the board of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation that aims to support leadership and governance in Africa, and remains committed to social justice.
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14. Finding our shared humanity in the digital age
Jay Naidoo, board member, Mo Ibrahim Foundation.
Digital information technology has reshaped our lives, the way we communicate, and our production systems. However, it has not yet fulfilled its promise of peace, justice and human dignity. In a world where we see so much progress, why are we still witnessing the repression of citizens, rising inequality and the destruction of natural ecosystems? The model of infinite growth adopted around the world is unsustainable and has generated the greatest inequality. We must rethink technology, not as an end in itself, but as a tool that assists in redefining the economy. For this, we need a revolution of values, where new technology becomes the bedrock for a solidarity economy, and results in the development of new public commons.
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e live in the digital age. individuals owning more than the Information technology bottom 50%. W has reshaped our lives, the way we communicate, and our What should we do? In the mid- production systems. Now robotics, Nineties, sub-Saharan Africa had nanotechnology and artificial fewer phones than the city of New intelligence may allow us to leapfrog York. Working together, African old infrastructure and technological Ministers developed a policy choices, and fulfil the promise made framework that gave investors by digital technology at the start of certainty and predictability, and the millennium: a promise to future harmonised the use of the radio generations that they could live in spectrum. This led Africa to a world based on peace, justice and become one of the fastest growing human dignity. telecommunication markets in the world. But are we making the right Today, millions of previously choices? Our world faces an unbanked people, especially in East ecological emergency. We currently Africa, have access to mobile banking. use the resources of 1.5 planets every Just like in telecommunications, the year, but if we all had to live like continent leapfrogged directly from Americans, we would need 4 planets. analogue to digital technology. With We cannot continue the growth political will, we can do the same in paradigm that just measures GDP and every sector. On a continent with an ignores the value of billions of people average of 300 days of sunlight per who live sustainably in communities year, harnessing solar energy means around the world. potential for millions of jobs and Infinite growth is an unsustainable many successful entrepreneurial model that runs contrary to the ventures. Renewables could empower natural cycles of Nature. This communities to develop new growth paradigm holds the greatest assets from which they could gain risk for humanity. Already, 80% revenue – at a lower cost than the old of forests have been eradicated, a technologies. third of our arable land is poisoned A crucial part of this transformation with chemicals used in industrial will be to empower citizens through agriculture, and much of the large better access to information. Using coral reefs have been destroyed by exam and school location data, the pollution. This growth ideology has NGO Twaweza has developed an also generated the greatest inequality, application, ‘Find My School’, that with 1% of the global population the citizens of Kenya can use to owning more wealth than the check the relative performance of remaining 99% – and the richest 62 primary schools in the country. As
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a result, education quality, teacher citizens. In a world where big performance and accountability are money and vested interests have visibly transformed in the interests captured governments and political of the students and the country. A parties, and where international similar model allows Ethiopian coffee conglomerates control more wealth farmers to improve their bargaining than the nations’ citizens, we are power through the Ethiopian Coffee exposed to abuse of power and the Exchange, an initiative set up by the plundering of natural and mineral Ethiopian Government. resources. In order to bring forward a genuine change, tools must be There are many examples of accessible to everyone – through youth activism on the right to proper design, appropriate costing, good governance and democracy and education. When information and against abuse of power and transparency is standard, and when dictatorships. In North Africa, digital literacy is widespread, citizens particularly in Tunisia and Egypt, are in a position to hold those in youth connected with social media power accountable, whether in took to the streets to show their government, business, civil society or power. Digital technology not only multi-lateral systems. helped them to connect locally but, in a world where nation state Where do we go from here? In boundaries are in many ways a world where we see so much arbitrary, the world connected to progress in technology, why are their struggle, and acted in solidarity. we still witnessing the repression The 2016 Ibrahim Index of African of citizens, rising inequality and Governance, the most comprehensive the destruction of the natural open data index in Africa, ecosystems that bring us life measures the public goods that our in the first place? Could it be Governments have an obligation to that ownership and control of deliver to their citizens. The index technology, as well as access to it, measures a hundred indicators, still sits with political and economic ranging from health to education, elites? When 1 GB of data costs and from economic opportunities to as much as 75% of the monthly the rule of law. poverty line income in many African However, data from the Index countries, it is clear that an elite is reveals that over the past 10 years, controlling the digital revolution overall governance improvement and that, yet again, many are being in Africa has been held back by a left behind. There is still a huge widespread deterioration in Safety digital deficit in who has access to and in the Rule of Law – affecting platforms. Internet penetration in almost two-thirds of African Africa today is only 31%, as opposed
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 105 Technology must not drive the economy, but assist in redefining it.
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to 53% in the rest of the world, and to participate, without centralised only 9% are using social media, control. limiting the capacity for coordinated For this, we need a revolution collective action. of values, no matter what tools are being used. We need the Maybe the real challenge of the technological revolution to drive a digital revolution is to recalibrate solidarity economy, based on the the software in order to bring principles of sharing, peer learning back the human values of service, and open source, an approach that compassion and solidarity, and to will result in the development of restore the balance between Mother new public commons. Technology Earth and ourselves. We must not is the birth-right of every human look at technology as the answer, but being. We cannot allow it to be rather as a tool. It must help us to appropriated in order to satisfy our bring about the collapse of human generation’s selfishness and sense of greed, not embody it. Technology grandeur. The premise for any future must not drive the economy, but pursuit of justice is that global assist in redefining it. We must take institutions play an active role in the idea of the commons to the lifting the veil of secrecy, and that digital revolution. We must ensure the new shape of global governance new technologies are open source, be built on open data platform. and that they offer a space for all
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 107 Glossary
This glossary attempts to clarify some of the key terms used in this report, Biometric identification including new forms of hardware and software, their applications, and general Biometric identification technologies can verify the identity of human beings by underlying principles. This is, however, no more than a first rudimentary entry examining distinct biological features. They include face recognition, fingerprints point: the list is by no means exhaustive, and some of the terms below cover recognition, iris recognition, voice recognition and many others. Biometric entire academic disciplines. To better grasp the complexity behind each of these identification could provide a highly efficient way to identify every person – words, we strongly encourage interested readers to seek more detailed accounts sometimes from considerable distances (as in the case of people being filmed by than could possibly fit in the short space of a glossary. aerial drones) – and could be used for airport security, building access, and car access through voice recognition. Aerial drones An aerial drone, also described as unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), is a Blockchain flying object without a human pilot aboard. Aerial drones are increasingly Blockchain is a technology that enables complete decentralization of data sophisticated and becoming capable of autonomous action, as well as storage and computation, through a network of computers or smartphones increasingly small. Drone networks are planned to become commonplace in connected over the Internet. Using smart software and cryptography, the nodes both urban and rural environments, supporting a range of surveillance systems, in the network can share inalterable data, without any central authority, and the as well as new forms of military and police intervention. system works even if participants do not trust each other. Blockchain already serves as the basis for Bitcoin, the first decentralized currency outside any Algorithm government control, and should enable decentralization of monetary systems, An algorithm is a process or set of rules to be followed in calculations or other dispute resolution systems, document storage systems and many other services problem-solving operations, especially by a computer. – challenging the control of nations over these services.
Algorithmic regulation Clean and abundant energy Algorithmic regulation is a governance system in which data is collected from Recent technological developments, particularly in the field of renewable citizens’ devices or through a range of sensors and cameras in urban areas. electricity sources (solar- or wind-based) or – in a more uncertain future – This data is then used for efficiently organizing the citizens’ lives. Algorithmic nuclear fusion, hint at the possibility of clean and abundant energy creation. As regulation could be used, for example, to automatically ticket speeding these technologies become more prevalent, many expect that they will reduce motorists, or – as in China today – to automatically collect photos of people who the reliance of many nations on fossil-based fuels and on centralized power cross the street under a red light, and display these on digital boards to shame plants, while opening the prospect of economic abundance. the perpetrators. CRISPR Artificial intelligence CRISPR is a gene editing technology that allows to precisely target and Artificial intelligence (AI) refers to technology that enables machines to permanently modify certain sections of DNA in living organisms. The technology accomplish complex goals – or forms of intelligence that are non-biological. relies on a naturally occurring genome editing system in bacteria. Unlike other We typically distinguish between weak or narrow AI, designed and trained for a gene editing technologies, CRISPR uses the cell’s own DNA repair mechanisms particular task such as spam filters, self-driving cars or Facebook’s newsfeed, and to add or subtract pieces of genetic information or to replace an existing general AI or Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which is able to find a solution segment with a tailor-made DNA sequence. CRISPRs do not need to be paired when presented with an unfamiliar task, with human-level ability or beyond. with separate cleaving enzymes as other tools do. It can also be used to target multiple genes simultaneously. Augmented reality CRISPR is currently applied in biomedical research, crop and livestock Augmented reality is a view of a real-world environment whose elements are breeding, in the research to engineer new antimicrobial drugs and to control “augmented” by sensory input such as sound, video, graphics, or other. These disease-carrying insects with gene drives. CRISPR could be applied to humans inputs are typically generated by computers, and accessed through devices in the foreseeable future, where it could serve to reverse genetic mutations such as phones, tablets, or Google Glasses. Augmentation typically occurs in responsible for a range of illnesses dependent on single genes, such as cystic real time and in relation to environmental elements – for instance, by overlaying fibrosis, hemophilia, and sickle cell disease or transform DNA to genetically supplemental information like scores over the video feed of a sporting event. enhance individuals. The first procedure where an adult received cells edited by The most notable uses of augmented reality would be the popular smartphone CRISPR took place in 2016 in China. game Pokémon GO, car manufacturer Volvo’s experiment with augmented reality aided production lines, and ThyssenKrupp’s overview for lift maintenance. Data The word data is omnipresent in discourses about new information Autonomous robots technologies. Data can be loosely defined as information about people, places, Autonomous robots are machines that can act without human control, through and environmental elements, gathered from a range of sources – from dispersed integrated computer systems. Factory robots, with a degree of autonomy, were sensors to texts – that exists in digital and other forms. Information technology already developed in the 1930s (with the first patent granted in 1961) and robots allows a range of sources to be converted into formats that allow for their joint have been used as vacuum cleaners (Roomba), pets (AIBO the robot dog), and processing and computation, whether for the sake of monitoring, prediction, or as chauffeurs (driverless cars). Autonomous robots are already used in warfare, other purposes. where their autonomy is restricted by a human giving the final command to attack. Law enforcement is a potential growing area of use for autonomous Digital governance robots – for instance, the Dubai Police force is now using modified Reem robots. Digital governance technologies are systems that allow citizens to take direct part in and influence their government’s decision making through the internet, Big data for instance, by taking part in committees, conducting public discussions or Big data technologies are computer systems that collect and aggregate massive voting online. amounts of data gathered through a combination of sensors and Internet data sources. This data is used to determine a certain situation (e.g. environmental Genetic modification conditions), or predict the likelihood of a future event (e.g. natural events, wars, Genetic modification refers to the transformation of the genome of a living etc). The capabilities of this technology will be amplified by AI-based systems organism. This is typically done through a process called ‘gene editing’, a type of that can directly support decision making by analyzing big data in relation to genetic engineering where DNA is inserted, deleted or replaced in the genome different goals. of a living organism. The main technologies to do this are ZFN, TALEN, and CRISPR/Cas9. Genetic modification is already applied to bacteria, plants and
108 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 GLOSSARY
animals, and technology currently exists that can be applied to humans. Genetic individuals, governments, NGOs and corporations to produce useful innovations modification could allow nations to engineer the next generation according to making use of this data in order to address local and global challenges in certain paradigms and perceived needs. Babies may be engineered, for example, unexpected ways. to have enhanced intelligence, or to withstand harsh environments. Predictive analytics Internet for all Predictive analytics refers to a variety of statistical techniques that analyze large Internet for all refers to the potential provision of Internet services to everyone amounts of data to make predictions about future or otherwise unknown events, (possibly without the consent of the state), through technologies like Google’s in order to guide better decision making, by humans or machines. router-balloons, Facebook’s mega-drones, satellites or device-to-device communication. Quantum communication Quantum communication is a field of applied quantum physics. Closely related Internet of Things to quantum information processing and quantum teleportation, it works by The Internet of things (IoT) is an emerging integrated technological network, transferring a quantum state from one place to another. Quantum states where digital and sensor technologies embedded in physical devices, vehicles, code quantum information, or qubits, through single photons. Those photons buildings and other items can collect data from their environment and are randomly polarized to states representing ones and zeroes, and serve to communicate with each other using the Internet – or this information can be transmit a series of random number sequences used as keys in cryptographic used in human-machine communication. The analyst firm Gartner estimates communication. Its most interesting application is in protecting information that by 2020 there will be over 26 billion connected devices in the world. Sensors channels against eavesdropping by means of quantum cryptography, making it can detect changes in state – for instance, temperature – and trigger changes of practically unhackable by foreign powers. behavior on this basis, operating like a thermostat, but in a connected way. Sensors Machine learning Sensors are electronic components or devices whose purpose is to detect events Machine learning is a field of computer science that gives computers the or changes in the environment, then send the information to other electronic ability to learn without being explicitly programmed. Various technological components, typically computer processors, typically communicating through models underpin machine learning, but the most common at present is neural radio waves or wifi. Sensor networks disseminated through cities and the networks, which are loosely modeled on the human brain’s layers of densely environment underpin the structure of the Internet of things and many big data interconnected simple processing nodes. Unlike machines that operate on the projects. basis of algorithms developed by human programmers, machine learning results in computing systems developing models of operation that are opaque to their Space exploration developers. Machine learning is also an evolving process, whereby machines Space exploration refers to the development of manned and unmanned are capable to improving their own competence and reformat themselves craft that can travel in space. Space technology already supports the network independently of human input. of satellites that make GPS and many communication systems possible. Further space exploration opens the possibility of colonising other planets, Mass surveillance manufacturing in microgravity – enabling entirely new materials which could not Mass surveillance is the intricate surveillance of an entire or a substantial be developed with Earth’s gravity – the construction of widespread solar farms fraction of a population in order to monitor that group of citizens. Mass in microgravity, or mining resources present in space, such as precious metals surveillance is exerted through the combination of a range of technologies – present on asteroids. typically dispersed sensors, aerial drones and biometric identification. Virtual reality Open Data Virtual reality (VR) is a technologically-mediated illusion, whereby the human Open data refers to one of the underlying principles of the Internet, whereby brain falsely infers real presence in a virtual environment. This illusion can data should be made available to as broad a range of individuals and be achieved through a head mounted display system that renders a virtual organizations as possible, with the minimal level of limitations attached. The environment in alignment with each eye’s perspective, and changes the image principles of open data apply at two levels: that data should be made available projected in relation to the movement of the head. VR technology has been used at no cost, and that it should be formatted in a way that makes it maximally in areas like aviation training and clinical psychology since the 1960s, and more transferable. The underlying logic of open data is that it will allow and incentivize recently for gaming and entertainment.
Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 109 Endnotes
1. Nytimes.com. (2017). Transcript: President Obama on What Books Mean to Him. [online] Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/16/books/transcript- president-obama-on-what-books-mean-to-him.html 2. Un.org. (2012). Secretary-General’s closing remarks at High-Level Panel on Accountability, Transparency and Sustainable Development | United Nations Secretary-General. [online] Available at: https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/ statement/2012-07-09/secretary-generals-closing-remarks-high-level-panel- accountability 3. Www.theodi.org/data-spectrum 4. Www-01.ibm.com. (2017). 10 Key Marketing Trends for 2017. [online] Available at: https://www-01.ibm.com/common/ssi/cgi-bin/ssialias?htmlfid=WRL12345USEN 5. Games for a new climate. (2012). Boston, MA: Boston University, the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future. 6. Www1.wfp.org. (2017). The R4 Rural Resilience Initiative | World Food Programme. [online] Available at: http://www1.wfp.org/r4-rural-resilience- initiative. 7. Climatecentre.org. (2017). Forecast based financing - Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. [online] Available at: http://www.climatecentre.org/programmes- engagement/forecast-based-financing. 8. Suarez, P. and van Aalst, M. K. (2017), Geoengineering: A humanitarian concern. Earth’s Future, 5: 183–195. 9. Climatecentre.org. (2017). Making better use of scientific information - IPCC authors play ‘Decisions for the decade’ - Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. [online] Available at: http://www.climatecentre.org/news/503/making-better-use- of-scientific-information-ipcc-authors-play-decisions-for-the-decade 10. Bu.edu. (2017). Pardee Research Fellow Conducts Gaming Session at the White House | The Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future. [online] Available at: http://www.bu.edu/pardee/2012/09/19/white- house-pardee-gaming/. 11. Suarez, P. (2017), Red Cross Innovations in Risk Management. Australian Journal of Emergency Management, volume 2, p.11-14. Available at: https://ajem. infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-32-02-05 12. Gordon, E., Walter, S. and Suarez, P. (2016) Engagement Games, a case for designing games to facilitate real-world action. [ebook] Available at: http:// elabhome.blob.core.windows.net/resources/engagement-game-guidebook.pdf
110 Global Challenges Quarterly Report 2017 CONTINUING THE CONVERSATION
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