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Renewable Resources in the U.S. Electric Supply DOE/EIA-0561(92) Distribution Category UC-950 Renewable Resources in the U.S. Electricity Supply February 1993 Energy Information Administration Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or of any other organization. ii Energy Information Administration/Renewable Resources in the U.S. Electricity Supply Contacts This report was prepared by the staff of the Energy Nikodem, Chief, Energy Resources Assessment Branch Resources Assessment Branch, Analysis and Systems (202/254-5550). Specific questions regarding the prep- Division, Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate aration and content of the report should be directed to Dr. Fuels. General information regarding this publication may Thomas Petersik (202/254-5320; forecasts, geothermal, be obtained from John Geidl, Director, Office of Coal, solar, wind, resources, generating technologies); John Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels (202/254-5570); Carlin (202/254-5562; municipal solid waste, wood, Robert M. Schnapp, Director, Analysis and Systems biomass); or Chris V. Buckner (202/254-5368; Division (202/254-5392); or Dr. Z.D. (Dan) hydroelectricity). Energy Information Administration/Renewable Resources in the U.S. Electricity Supply iii Preface Section 205(a)(2) of the Department of Energy Organ- analysts, policy and financial analysts, investment firms, ization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91) requires the trade associations, Federal and State regulators, and Administrator of the Energy Information Administration legislators. While it does not address major policy issues, (EIA) to carry out a comprehensive program that will it does provide important basic factual information on collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze, and disseminate data which useful discussion, analyses, and policies can be and information relevant to energy resources, reserves, built. production, demand, technology, and related economic and statistical information. To assist in meeting these The legislation that created the EIA vested the organ- responsibilities in the area of electric power and ization with an element of statutory independence. The renewable energy resources, the EIA has prepared this EIA's responsibility is to provide timely, high-quality report, Renewable Resources in the U.S. Electricity Supply. information and to perform objective, credible analyses in The report provides an introductory overview of current support of deliberations by both public and private and long-term forecasted uses of renewable resources in decisionmakers. The EIA does not take positions on policy the Nation's electricity market-place, the largest domestic questions. Accordingly, this report does not purport to application of renewable resources today. It is intended represent the policy positions of the U.S. Department of for a general audience, but it should be of particular Energy or the Administration. interest to public utility iv Energy Information Administration/Renewable Resources in the U.S. Electricity Supply Contents Page Executive Summary .................................................................................... vii 1. The Current Use of Renewable Resources in Electric Power .............................................. 1 Introduction ..................................................................................... 1 History of the Use of Renewable Resources in Electricity Generation ................................... 3 California, Home to Renewable Energy ............................................................ 10 2. Projections of Renewable Resources in the U.S. Electricity Supply ....................................... 13 Introduction .................................................................................... 13 Energy Information Administration (EIA) Projections ............................................... 13 The Energy Policy Act of 1992 .................................................................... 15 Comparison With Other Forecasts ................................................................. 17 Solar Two ...................................................................................... 17 Overall Conclusions ............................................................................. 20 3. Issues Affecting the Growth of Renewable Resources in Electric Power .................................. 21 Demand Growth ................................................................................ 21 Prices of Other Fuels ............................................................................. 22 Technology Costs ............................................................................... 22 Externalities .................................................................................... 23 Resource-Specific Challenges ..................................................................... 23 Conclusion ..................................................................................... 26 Appendices A. Assumptions ................................................................................. 27 B. Renewable Resources for Electricity Generation .................................................. 33 C. Electricity Generating Technologies Using Renewable Resources ................................... 43 D. The Federal Regions .......................................................................... 69 vi Energy Information Administration/Renewable Resources in the U.S. Electricity Supply Contents (Continued) Page Tables ES1. U.S. Electricity Net Generation Using Renewable Resources, 1990 and 2010 ............................... viii 1. Total U.S. Energy Resources, Accessible Resources, and Reserves ......................................... 2 2. U.S. Energy Consumption, 1990 ....................................................................... 3 3. U.S. Electricity Generating Capacity, 1970, 1980, 1990 ................................................... 4 4. U.S. Electricity Generating Capacity and Net Generation, 1990, By Fuel Type .............................. 7 5. U.S. Generating Capacity Using Renewable Resources, 1990 ............................................. 8 6. U.S. Generating Capacity Using Renewable Resources, 1990, by Federal Region ............................ 9 7. U.S. Net Generation Using Renewable Resources, 1990, by Federal Region ................................ 9 8. World Oil Price and Economic Growth Assumptions for the Annual Energy Outlook 1993 ................... 13 9. U.S. Electric Generating Capacity and Net Generation Projections for 2010 ............................... 16 10. Comparison of Macroeconomic Forecasts ............................................................. 18 11. Comparison of Electricity Forecasts, 2010 ............................................................. 19 A1. Projections of Utility and Nonutility Electric Capability for Renewable Technologies ...................... 30 A2. Average Annual Capacity Factors for Generating Technologies Using Renewable Resources ............... 31 Figures 1. Cost of Electricity Using Wind Power Plants, 1980-1990 ................................................. 6 2. Cost of Electricity Using Solar Thermal Generating Plants, 1980-1990 ..................................... 7 3. Photovoltaic Cell Conversion Efficiencies, 1978-1990 .................................................... 7 4. Solar Thermal Generating Facility, Kramer Junction, California ......................................... 11 5. Wind Power Plant, Altamont, California .............................................................. 25 B1. U.S. Conventional Hydroelectric Generating Capacity, Developed and Undeveloped ...................... 35 B2. U.S. Known and Potential Geothermal Energy Resources ............................................... 37 B3. Average Annual Direct Solar Radiation for Concentrator Collectors for the United States ................... 38 B4. Selected U.S. Biomass Energy Sources ................................................................ 39 B5. U.S. Wind Energy Resources ........................................................................ 41 C1. Hydroelectric Plant Components ..................................................................... 46 C2. Kaplan, Pelton, and Francis Turbines ................................................................. 47 C3. Geothermal Electricity Generating System for Vapor-Dominated Hydrothermal Resources ................. 48 C4. Single-Flash Geothermal Electricity Generating System for Liquid-Dominated Hydrothermal Resources ............................................................................ 49 C5. Double-Flash Geothermal Electricity Generating System for Liquid-Dominated Hydrothermal Resources ............................................................................ 50 C6. Binary Geothermal Electricity Generating System for Liquid-Dominated Hydrothermal Resources ............................................................................ 50 C7. Biomass Electric Generation System .................................................................. 52 C8. Burner Systems for Biomass Electric Generation Systems ............................................... 53 C9. Municipal
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