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Scottish Parliament Elections: 2021

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Scottish Parliament Elections: 2021 BRIEFING PAPER Number CBP9230, 18 May 2021 Scottish Parliament By Georgina Sturge Elections: 2021 Contents: 1. Introduction 2. Parties 3. Candidates 4. Results 5. Turnout 6. Appendix www.parliament.uk/commons-library | intranet.parliament.uk/commons-library | [email protected] | @commonslibrary 2 Scottish Parliament Elections: 2021 Contents Summary 3 1. Introduction 5 2. Parties 9 Scottish National Party 9 Conservative 11 Labour 13 Liberal Democrats 15 Green Party 17 Other parties 18 3. Candidates 19 4. Results 21 5. Turnout 24 6. Appendix 26 6.1 Constituency results 27 Table 1: Constituency results - votes and turnout by constituency 27 Table 2: Constituency results - seats by majority from highest to lowest percentage majority 30 Table 3: Constituency results - party share of vote by constituency, and majority 32 Table 4: Constituency results - change in share of the vote and turnout by constituency 34 Table 5: Constituency votes and shares by region and party 37 Table 6: Change in share of the constituency vote by region 38 Table 7: Largest and smallest constituency majorities by party 38 Table 8: Highest and lowest shares of the vote by party 39 6.2 Regional results 40 Table 9: Regional results - votes and turnout by constituency 40 Table 10: Regional results - party share of vote by constituency 43 Table 11: Regional results - change in share of vote and turnout by constituency 45 Table 12: Regional results - votes and turnout by party and region 48 Table 13: Share of the regional vote by region and party 48 Table 14: Change in share of the regional vote by region 48 Table 15: Difference in turnout and share of the vote between constituency and regional ballots by region 49 6.3 Members of the Scottish Parliament 50 Table 16: MSPs elected, May 2021 50 Table 17: MSPs elected by seat type, party and region 54 3 Commons Library Briefing, 18 May 2021 Summary In the elections to the Scottish Parliament in May 2021 the Scottish National Party won the most seats (64 of 129) with 44.2% of the vote but failed to win an overall majority. The total number of SNP MSPs elected was one more than in 2016. The Conservatives gained the second largest share of the vote (22.8%), winning 31 seats, which was the same number as in 2016.1 Labour took 19.8% of the vote, which was lower than in 2016 (20.8%) and won 22 seats, 2 fewer than in 2016.The Liberal Democrats took 6.0% of the vote and lost 1 seat, finishing on 4 seats. The Green Party took 4.7% of the total vote but finished with 8 seats, 2 more than in 2016. The average turnout was 63.3% for the constituency ballot and 63.5% for the regional ballot. The highest constituency turnout was in Eastwood, where 76.2% of the electorate cast valid ballots. The lowest constituency turnout was in Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn, where 51.5% of eligible voters participated. Following the election, the composition of the Scottish Parliament was 71 men and 58 women. The number of women MSPs was the highest ever and was 13 more than following the previous two elections. Scottish Parliament election 2021: Results in brief combined constituency and regional results Votes 2016 2021 Scottish National Party 2,013,485 44.1% 2,385,578 44.0% Conservative 1,026,064 22.5% 1,229,657 22.7% Labour 950,180 20.8% 1,070,211 19.7% Liberal Democrat 297,522 6.5% 324,957 6.0% Green 163,598 3.6% 255,314 4.7% Others 114,056 2.5% 153,817 2.8% Total 4,564,905 100% 5,419,534 100% Seats 2011 2016 2021 Change Scottish National Party 69 63 64 +1 Conservative 15 31 31 0 Labour 37 24 22 -2 Liberal Democrat 5 5 4 -1 Green 2 6 8 +2 Others 1 0 0 0 Turnout 50.4% 55.7% 63.3% +5.3% MSPs Women 45 45 58 +13 Men 84 84 71 -13 1 In this briefing, the Scottish Conservatives, Scottish Labour, Scottish Liberal Democrats and Scottish Green Party are referred to as Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, and Green Party. 4 Scottish Parliament Elections: 2021 Scottish Parliament seats and share of votes by party, 1999 to 2021 1999 2003 2007 2011 2016 2021 Share of all votes by party Scottish National Party 50% SNP 40% Seats 35 27 47 69 63 64 30% Constituency 7 9 21 53 59 62 Regional 28 18 26 16 4 2 20% 10% Share 28.0% 22.3% 31.3% 44.7% 44.1% 44.0% 0% Constituency 28.7% 23.8% 32.9% 45.4% 46.5% 47.7% 1999 2003 2007 2011 2016 Regional 27.3% 20.9% 31.0% 44.0% 41.7% 40.3% 2021 50% Conservative Conservatives 40% Seats 18 18 17 15 31 31 30% Constituency 0 3 4 3 7 5 20% Regional 18 15 13 12 24 26 10% Share 15.5% 16.1% 15.3% 13.1% 22.5% 22.7% 0% Constituency 15.6% 16.6% 16.6% 13.9% 22.0% 21.9% Regional 15.4% 15.5% 13.9% 12.4% 22.9% 23.5% 1999 2003 2007 2011 2016 2021 50% Labour Labour 40% Seats 56 50 46 37 24 22 Constituency 53 46 37 15 3 2 30% Regional 3 4 9 22 21 20 20% 10% Share 36.2% 32.0% 30.8% 29.0% 20.8% 19.7% 0% Constituency 38.8% 34.6% 32.1% 31.7% 22.6% 21.6% Regional 33.6% 29.3% 29.2% 26.3% 19.1% 17.9% 1999 2003 2007 2011 2016 2021 Liberal Democrat 50% Lib Dem Seats 17 17 16 5 5 4 40% Constituency 12 13 11 2 4 4 30% Regional 5 4 5 3 1 0 20% Share 13.3% 13.6% 13.8% 6.6% 6.5% 6.0% 10% Constituency 14.2% 15.4% 16.2% 7.9% 7.8% 6.9% 0% Regional 12.4% 11.8% 11.3% 5.2% 5.2% 5.1% 1999 2003 2007 2011 2016 2021 Green 50% Green Seats 1 7 2 2 6 8 40% Constituency 0 0 0 0 0 0 30% Regional 1 7 2 2 6 8 20% Share 1.8% 3.4% 2.1% 2.2% 3.6% 4.7% 10% Constituency 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 1.3% 0% Regional 3.6% 6.9% 4.0% 4.4% 6.6% 8.1% 1999 2003 2007 2011 2016 2021 Note: Historical results to 2011 provided by SPICe. 5 Commons Library Briefing, 18 May 2021 1. Introduction The sixth set of elections to the Scottish Parliament took place on Thursday, 6 May 2021, on the same day as elections to the Senedd Cymru, elections for local authorities, metro mayors, and Police and Crime Commissioner elections in England, and elections to the Greater London Authority. The electoral system The system for electing members to the Scottish Parliament is known as the Additional Member System. Voters are given two ballot papers. The first is used to elect each of 73 constituency Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) under the traditional first-past-the-post system. The second ballot paper is used to elect seven MSPs from each of eight electoral regions. These additional members are elected so that the total representation from each geographical area, including those members elected under first-past-the-post, corresponds more closely to the share of the votes cast for each political party in the region. The political context The sixth Scottish Parliament elections were the first to take place since the UK leaving the European Union, the previous election having taken place in May 2016, just before the June referendum. Since 2016, two UK General Elections had been held, in 2017 and 2019. The first was called by Prime Minister Theresa May to attempt to secure approval for the terms of withdrawal from the EU which had recently been negotiated. That election saw the SNP lose 21 seats, the Conservatives gain 12 and Labour gain 6. The election called in 2019 was again called to test the public’s support for a new approach to the Brexit negotiations, following a change of leadership within the Conservative Party. At that General Election, the SNP gained 13 seats, while the Conservatives lost 7 and Labour lost 6. The issue of Scottish independence was a prominent feature of political discourse in between the 2016 and 2021 Scottish Parliament elections. In 2017, the Scottish Parliament voted to seek a new referendum on Scottish independence under Section 30 order under the Scotland Act 1998. Section 30 allows the Scottish Parliament to legislate on matters which are usually reserved, under particular circumstances, and in this case the request was not granted. Going into the 2017 General Election, the SNP made the intention to continue arguing for a second independence referendum a cornerstone of its campaign. In that election, the SNP lost seats to the Conservatives and Labour, which had both opposed a second referendum. By the time of the 2019 General Election, the UK Government’s stance had shifted towards a ‘hard’ Brexit. The SNP campaigned again on the promise to seek a second referendum on independence and re-gained many of the seats lost in 2021. 6 Scottish Parliament Elections: 2021 In January 2020, the Scottish Parliament voted to endorse seeking a new referendum, however the pursuit of this was put on hold due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
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