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COMPANY REPORT an ISO 9001:2008 Certified Company BUY 1 INVESTMENT INTERRMEDIATES LTD. COMPANY REPORT An ISO 9001:2008 Certified Company BUY 28 Mar, 2011 Indraprastha Gas Limited Key Data (`) Indraprastha Gas Ltd (IGL) is in the City Gas Distribution (CGD) business supplying CMP 299 compressed natural gas (CNG) to the transport Sector and piped natural gas (PNG) to domestic and commercial sectors in the National Capital Territory (NCT) region Target Price 357 of Delhi. It has a CNG compression capacity of 3.52mn Kg per day and fuels more Key Data than 400,000 vehicles daily. In the PNG segment, IGL provides natural gas to over Bloomberg Code IGL IN 210,000 domestic and 300 commercial customers. It also supplies re-gasified liquid Reuters Code IGAS.BO natural gas (R-LNG) to 58 industrial consumers. We initiate our coverage on IGL ` BSE Code 532514 with a “Buy” recommendation and a price target of 357. NSE Code IGL Investment Rationale Face Value (`) 10 Robust demand for CNG in Delhi and NCR, a major boost for IGL: Market Cap. (` Bn) 41.9 Delhi Government introduced 2,000 new buses & ~20,000 new radio taxis during 52 Week High (`) 374 the Common Wealth games. In addition, introduction of CNG models by car 52 Week Low (`) 209 manufacturers along with conversion to CNG by private car owners provides Avg. Daily Volume (6m) 336945 significant opportunity for the company. In line IGL has consistently increased the Beta (Sensex) 0.7 number of CNG stations from 181 in FY09 to 241 stations by the end of FY10 and it plans to further strengthen its CNG stations count to 281 by the end of FY11. Shareholding Pattern (%) Compression capacity will also increase to over 3.9mn Kg per day (addition of 11% Promoters 45 over the current level of 3.52mn kg per day) by FY13E. Mutual Funds / UTI / Banks 14.12 PNG, the next growth driver: Foreign Institutional Investors 17.18 Bodies Corporate 4.47 There are more than 4.5mn domestic LPG connections in the NCT region alone. However, some users may have multiple connections in cities. Assuming on an average there are 1.5 Individuals 10.12 connections per user, the consumer segment would be more than 3 million households. Other 9.11 If we assume 50% of these consumers opt for PNG connection (as PNG is priced at 22% Total 100.0 lower to LPG), IGL would have a target consumer base of 1.5 mn households compared (` mn) FY11E FY12E FY13E to 210,000 consumers as on date. As, IGL is targeting these consumers; we expect, total Revenues 17,151.7 22,894.7 28,936.0 PNG volumes to grow from 87 million metric standard cubic meters (MMSCM) in FY10 Operating Profit 4,968.2 6,345.2 7,116.6 to 173.76 MMSCM in FY13E (at a CAGR of 26%). PNG sales are estimated to grow OPM 29.0% 27.7% 24.6% from ` 1,436 Mn in FY10 to ` 3,639 Mn in FY13 (at a CAGR of 36%). PAT 2,527.9 3,041.0 3,180.6 Strengthening of Infrastructure to cater growing consumer base: PAT Margin 14.7% 13.3% 11.0% IGL is in midst of a large-scale expansion to augment its PNG infrastructure in existing EPS (`) 18.1 21.7 22.7 areas as well as in new areas in Delhi. IGL plans to spend around ` 30,000 Mn over a period of 5 years to augment its infrastructure. The Company plans to provide new PNG connection to over 60,000 domestic households every year in Delhi as well as NCR towns of Noida, Greater Noida and Ghaziabad. Entry barriers to limit competition: IGL operated as a monopoly gas distributor in the city of Delhi for past 8 years. Based on the new regulations by the PNGRB, the Delhi City gas distribution market will open up to competition after December 2011. Although IGL’s marketing exclusivity will end, it will retain exclusivity as ‘city gas carrier’ in Delhi till FY25. IGL would charge a network tariff of 14% for permitting other entrants for using its network. The new players can only develop pipeline infrastructure in areas where IGL does not have any presence. Valuation & Outlook We initiate our coverage on IGL with a “BUY” recommendation with a price target Analyst of ` 357 based on DCF methodology, which is a 19% upside from the current price Champak Patel level. Our EPS estimate of ` 21.0 and ` 22.7 for FY12E and FY13E respectively, [email protected] imply earnings CAGR of 14% over FY10-13E. At current level of ` 299, the stock Tel: (022) 2858 3412 is trading at 14x and 12.97x FY2012E and FY2013E Earnings respectively. Indraprastha Gas Ltd ACMIIL 1 1 INVESTMENT INTERRMEDIATES LTD. COMPANY REPORT An ISO 9001:2008 Certified Company Company Background IGL is in the retail gas distribution business supplying compressed natural gas (CNG) to the transport sector and piped natural gas (PNG) to domestic and commercial sectors in the National Capital Territory (NCT) region of Delhi. IGL was incorporated in December 1998 as a joint venture (JV) between two oil & gas majors - GAIL and BPCL, each holding 22.5% stake and government of NCT of Delhi (5% stake) to implement the city gas distribution (CGD) project in NCT. IGL has 241 CNG stations in Delhi and NCR as on FY10. IGL is now expanding its network into NCR cities of Noida, Greater Noida, Ghaziabad and Sonipat and plans to cover whole Delhi by end of CY2011. IGL CNG PNG Domestic Industrial/Commercial Business Model Indraprastha Gas Ltd. (IGL) is a pioneer in commercialising the use of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) for automotive sector and exists as sole supplier and marketer of CNG to all segments of automotive sector in the National Capital Territory (NCT) of Delhi. It also, supplies Piped Natural Gas (PNG) to domestic and commercial sectors and R-LNG (Re-Gasified Liquefied Natural Gas) to industrial consumers in the NCT of Delhi. Net Sales Mix Net Sales Mix 120.00% 100.00% 11.65% 13.74% 14.06% 14.77% 16.30% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 88.35% 86.26% 85.94% 85.23% 83.70% 20.00% 0.00% FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E CNG Sales PNG Sales Source: IGL, ACMIIL Research Selling prices in both the Selling prices in both the segments are currently determined vis-a-vis the relative segments are currently prices of alternative fuels like Petrol, Diesel and LPG. CNG is priced at a discount determined vis-a-vis the relative to petrol and diesel prices. While in the PNG segment, domestic users are priced prices of alternative fuels at a discount to domestic LPG prices; industrial users are priced at a discount to Naphtha prices. Indraprastha Gas Ltd ACMIIL 2 1 INVESTMENT INTERRMEDIATES LTD. COMPANY REPORT An ISO 9001:2008 Certified Company Sourcing of Gas: GAIL the sole supplier On the gas-sourcing front, which is an important aspect of the CGD business, IGL has a supply agreement with GAIL. GAIL is the sole supplier of Administrative Price Mechanism (APM) natural gas to the company. IGL has signed a Gas Purchase Agreement for 2.0 MMSCMD (1.9 MMSCMD for CNG and 0.1 MMSCMD for PNG) with GAIL, which was valid till CY2010 and extendable on mutually agreed terms. Gas source for IGL Suppliers Region Contracted Supply (MMSCMD) GAIL NCT of Delhi 2 Relatively secured gas supply to GAIL Noida, Greater Noida 0.2 meet demand GAIL Faridabad 0.25 GAIL Gurgaon 0.25 RIL - 0.15 BPCL - 0.24 Source: IGL, ACMIIL Research IGL has further been allocated 0.7 MMSCMD of natural gas by the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoPNG) to expand in NCR cities. Gas is received at various points of the Hazira-Bijaipur- Jagdishpur (HBJ) pipeline around Delhi. As the gas cost is denominated in Rupee terms, IGL is insulated from exchange risks. The gas is currently available at subsidized prices, which is called APM prices. However, as per the gas pricing order, APM prices are to be revised upwards by 20% p.a. for four years to align it with market determined prices. IGL’s Gas Source Pipeline Structure Source: IGL IGL’s Pricing strategy in CNG and PNG segment The selling price of CNG /PNG is determined by adding network charges and marketing margin to the cost of natural gas. Government does not interfere in fixing the selling price. The gas regulator Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) has capped the return rate on the pipeline network operation at 14% of capital employed on a pre-tax basis. Indraprastha Gas Ltd ACMIIL 3 1 INVESTMENT INTERRMEDIATES LTD. COMPANY REPORT An ISO 9001:2008 Certified Company CNG Pricing details as on February 2011 Particulars Unit Delhi Gas Cost (A) `/Kg 12.95 Network charges (B) `/Kg 4.6 Compression Charges (C) `/Kg 6.66 Corporate Tax (D) `/Kg 0.23 Marketing Margin (E=F-A-B-C-D) `/Kg 0.85 Selling Price (F) `/Kg 25.29 Excise 14.42% `/Kg 3.66 Consumer Price (charged to customers) `/Kg 29.00 Source: IGL, ACMIIL Research (Note: Refer Annexure-1 for details on Network charges and Compression charges) Similarly, in the domestic PNG segment the price is indexed to the administered retail selling price of domestic LPG (14.2 Kg) cylinder in the NCT. In the small commercial users segment, PNG is indexed to commercial LPG (19 Kg) cylinder in the NCT of Delhi, taking into account the respective heating values of natural gas and LPG.
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