BP 476 the 2019 General Election
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Briefing Paper 476 April 2019 THE 2019 GENERAL ELECTION 1. Introduction1 This year’s National and Provincial Elections – to and that it may well be the result of this election use the official name – are being touted as the that decides the matter. most crucial yet in our 25 years of democracy. We have a tendency towards hyperbole and exaggeration when it comes to elections. In 1999 2. Registration and Turnout and 2004 there was much anticipation (and angst) about the prospect of the ANC winning more than Before looking at the situations of the various two-thirds of the vote, giving it the power to parties and how they are likely to fare, it is change the Constitution. In 2009 there was necessary to give some attention to the serious concern about the kind of government underlying question of how many people will that would emerge from the ‘anyone but Thabo’ actually vote. coalition of forces that lined up behind Jacob In 1994, an estimated 86% of eligible voters (also Zuma and propelled him into the presidency. known as Voting Age Population, VAP) cast a ballot. This figure has declined ever since, apart Very little happened after 1999 and 2004 to from a slight rise in 2009, to the point where only justify the hype; even with a two-thirds majority 57% of the VAP voted in 2014.2 There is a large the ANC made no significant constitutional gap between the number of eligible voters and the changes. 2009 was different: even the direst number of registered voters: there are 26.74 forecasts at that time failed to predict just how million registered voters, but the IEC estimates deeply the Zuma government would harm the that as many as 9.8 eligible voters have not country. As the various commissions of enquiry registered.3 In other words, almost 27% of people now under way are confirming, the meretricious entitled by age and citizenship to vote next month and kleptocratic state built by Mr Zuma – and his will not be able to do so. many allies both inside and outside of government – took South African to the brink of national Very few experts predict a percentage poll (the failure. Even now, the country is not entirely safe: proportion of registered voters who actually vote) an Eskom default on its massive debt payments; a of more than 70%. This would result in an collapse of the power grid; a downgrade by the effective poll of 51% (70% of the 73% of eligible only credit ratings agency that still has us above voters who have registered). Even if this is not ‘junk’ status; a strong resurgence by the state particularly low by international standards, it is capture faction within the ANC – any of these certainly not good for our democracy. There are things could send us over the edge. various reasons why people do not register: they may lack ID papers; they may find it difficult to And this is why the pre-election excitement this reach registration offices, especially in rural time around is justified. There is a clear sense that districts; they may simply not think it important the ANC is not yet firmly under the control of the or worthwhile to do so; or, they may have made a ‘good guys’; that the renewal begun by Cyril conscious decision to turn their backs on electoral Ramaphosa and his team could easily be derailed; politics. Each of these reasons is cause for those who want him out. A strong showing by the concern. ANC, on the other hand, will supposedly be seen as an endorsement of Mr Ramaphosa, and will A low turnout is widely believed to disadvantage undermine his enemies, putting us on the path to the ANC, and to favour those opposition parties a potential ten years of benign and beneficent whose base is largely urban and wealthier. The rule. It seems that quite a number of traditional DA, for example, is well-known for getting its opposition supporters are impressed by this supporters to the polls which, in the cities and the argument. more densely populated provinces like Gauteng and the Western Cape, is much easier to do than This is an example of the ‘Ramaphosa effect’ – his in the far-flung districts of Limpopo and the ability to attract support at a rate far higher than Eastern Cape. that of his party. The ANC’s own research earlier this year put the gap at 13 percentage points – A low turnout of young voters would be especially 73% national support for Mr Ramaphosa against problematic for the EFF, and for any other parties 60% for his party.5 The party’s election team will which draw much of their support from the be hoping that this effect shows itself at the polls, under-30 age group. A total of 5.65 million people but there are at least three factors that are pulling aged from 18 to 29 have registered, out of in the other direction, and which threaten to keep approximately 12 million citizens of that age the ANC’s support below 60%. group. In January, the IEC announced that only 16% of 18-19 year olds had registered;4 even The long years of corruption and scandal under allowing for a fairly successful registration Jacob Zuma have taken their toll on the ANC’s weekend in February, this figure is unlikely to reputation and have seriously devalued its brand have approached 50% by the time the registration as the ‘party of liberation’. Its fall to below 54% of period closed. the vote in the 2016 municipal elections reflected both a stay-away from the polls by traditional ANC There is clearly a great deal of work to be done to voters and, probably to a lesser extent, a switch to convince potential voters to become actual voters. some of the opposition parties. Either way, it Government and civil society both have a role to signalled dissatisfaction with the direction the play here, but it is the political parties that should party was taking. Three years later, and with Mr be asking themselves why such a large percentage Zuma gone, we may expect a rebound. However, of voters appear to find their offerings uninspiring voters will also be taking note of the seemingly and not worth voting for. endless litany of greed, dishonesty, and hypocrisy that is emerging from the commissions of enquiry. Some of those who deserted the ANC in the Zuma 3. The ANC years may return, but others may conclude that the rot goes further than just the former President Since Cyril Ramaphosa took over as President we and his immediate circle. have had clear indications of his reformist agenda, but we have also seen just how deeply entrenched Secondly, there is a distinct lack of unity and his enemies are. Thoughtful, responsible voters – policy coherence at the top levels of the ANC. To as opposed to those who merely tick the same box mention two examples, every five years out of habit or loyalty – face a difficult task: if they wish to strengthen Mr Finance Minister Tito Mboweni floated the Ramaphosa’s position, thus enabling him to idea of partial privatisation of state- continue clearing out the mediocre and the owned enterprises during his budget crooked members of his party, they have to vote speech, only for Deputy-President David for the ANC; but, by virtue of the party list system, Mabuza to say that he “doesn’t take Tito such a vote will simply return many of the most seriously” in the matter.6 undesirable ones to Parliament, and possibly to Mr Ramaphosa, in a clear attempt to put the Cabinet. some distance between himself and Mr Zuma, has frequently spoken of “nine Voters also have to deal with the related argument wasted years” in reference to his that says that a poor result for the ANC – less than predecessor’s term of office; only for 60% - will threaten Mr Ramaphosa’s position Gwede Mantashe, the ANC Chairperson, to within the party, and strengthen the hands of BP 476: The 2019 General Election 2 effectively rebuke him by claiming that jewels in its crown, the social grants system, to the “only the last four years were wasted”.7 brink of collapse. At the same time, the DA’s effective victories in Johannesburg and Tshwane The point is not who may be right or wrong in in the 2016 municipal elections meant that it these debates, but simply that a party which, on controlled the country’s three most important the eve of an election in which it hopes to rebuild cities. And in 2015 it installed a young, its majority, sends out contradictory messages charismatic son of Soweto as its national leader. and gives the impression of discord at the highest But somehow, the DA has failed to take advantage levels, is risking serious self-harm. of this almost perfectly favourable combination of factors. It has also suffered from internal tensions Thirdly, South Africa’s increasing urbanisation and factionalism, though not to the same degree and the growth in the black middle-class make the as the ANC. Some of its leading members, ANC, arguably, a victim of its own socio-economic including its former leader, Helen Zille, have been success. Certainly, poverty and inequality are caught up in Twitter controversies, and accused of stubbornly serious problems, along with huge perpetuating colonial and/or racial stereotypes. unemployment, but it cannot be gainsaid that the And the party’s highly-regarded head of policy government’s work in housing provision, mass resigned in January, shortly before the launch of electrification, social security, primary health- its manifesto.