Job Name:2105245 Date:14-12-31 PDF Page:2105245cbc.p1.pdf Color: Cyan Magenta Yellow Black Democracy atthe Polls AEI'S AT THE POLLS STUDIES The American Enterprise Institute has initiated this series in order to promote an understanding of the electoral process as it functions in democracies around the world. The series will include studies of at least two national elections in each of nineteen countries on five continents, by scholars from the United States and abroad who are recognized as experts in their field. More information on the titles in this series can be found at the back of this book. Democracy atthe Polls A Comparative Study of Competitive National Elections Edited by David Butler, Howard R. Penniman, and Austin Ranney American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research Washington and London Distributed to the Trade by National Book Network, 15200 NBN Way, Blue Ridge Summit, PA 17214. To order call toll free 1-800-462-6420 or 1-717-794-3800. For all other inquiries please contact the AEI Press, 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 or call 1-800-862-5801. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Main entry under title: Democracy at the polls. (AEI studies; 297) Includes index. 1. Elections. 2. Comparative government. I. Butler, David E. II. Penniman, Howard Rae, 1916- III. Ranney, Austin. IV. Series: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. AEI studies; 297. JF1001.D45 324.6 80-22652 ISBN 0-8447-3405-5 ISBN 0-8447-3403-9 (pbk.) AEI Studies 297 ©1981 by the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C., and London. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without permission in writing from the American Enterprise Institute except in the case of brief quotations embodied in news articles, critical articles, or reviews. The views expressed in the publications of the American Enterprise Institute are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the staff, advisory panels, officers, or trustees of AEI. "American Enterprise Institute" and @) are registered service marks of the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. Printed in the United States of America The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, established in 1943, is a publicly supported, nonpartisan, research and educational organization. Its purpose is to assist policy makers, scholars, businessmen, the press, and the public by providing objective analysis of national and international issues. Views expressed in the institute's publications are those of the authors and do not neces­ sarily reflect the views of the staff, advisory panels, officers, or trustees of AEI. Council of Academic Advisers Paul W. McCracken, Chairman, Edmund Ezra Day University Professor of Busi­ ness Administration, University of Michigan Robert H. Bork, Alexander M. Bickel Professor of Public Law, Yale Law School Kenneth W. Dam, Harold ]. and Marion F. Green Professor of Law and Provost, University of Chicago Donald C. Hellmann, Professor of Political Science and International Studies, University of Washington D. Gale Johnson, Eliakim Hastings Moore Distinguished Service Professor of Economics and Chairman, Department of Economics, University of Chicago Robert A. Nisbet, Adjunct Scholar, American Enterprise Institute Herbert Stein, A. Willis Robertson Professor of Economics, University of Virginia James Q. Wilson, Henry Lee Shattuck Professor of Government, Harvard University Executive Committee Richard B. Madden, Chairman of the Board Richard J. Farrell William J. Baroody, Jr., President Charles T. Fisher III Herman J. Schmidt Richard D. Wood Edward Styles, Director of Publications Program Directors Periodicals Russell Chapin, Legislative Analyses AEI Economist, Herbert Stein, Robert B. Helms, Health Policy Studies Editor Thomas F. Johnson, Economic Policy Studies AEI Foreign Policy and Defense Sidney L. Jones, Seminar Programs Review, Lawrence J. Korb and Robert Pranger, Co-Editors; Lawrence J. Korb, J. James W. Abellera, Managing Defense Policy Studies Editor Marvin H. Kosters, Government Regulation Studies Public Opinion, Seymour Martin W. S. Moore, Legal Policy Studies Lipset and Ben J. Wattenberg, Co-Editors i Karlyn H. Keene, Rudolph G. Penner, Tax Policy Studies Managing Editor Howard R. Penniman/Austin Ranney, Political and Social Processes Regulation, Antonin Scalia, Editor; Anne Brunsdale, Managing Robert J. Pranger, International Programs Editor Contents INTRODUCTION: DEMOCRATIC AND NONDEMOCRATIC 1 ELECTIONS David Butler, Howard R. Penniman, and Austin Ranney 1 What Is a UDemocratic General Election"? 2 Why These Twenty-Eight Nations? 4 The Book's Objective and Strategy 5 2 ELECTORAL SYSTEMS David Butler 7 The Ground Rules 9 Translating Votes into Seats 11 The Effects of Electoral Systems 22 Glossary 23 Bibliography 25 POLITICAL PARTIES: IDEOLOGIES AND PROGRAMS Arend 3 Lijphart 26 Introduction: Ideological, Programmatic, and Pragmatic Parties 26 Dimensions of Ideology 27 Ideologies and Cabinet Coalitions 42 Ideologies and Transnational Alliances 47 Conclusion 50 Bibliography 50 4 POLITICAL PARTIES: ORGANIZATION Leon D. Epstein 52 The Meaning of Party Organization 53 The Institutional Context 55 Mass Memberships 60 Purposes of an Organized Membership 64 Financing 68 The Challenge of the Nonparty Media 70 Prospects 72 Bibliography 74 5 CANDIDATE SELECTION Austin Ranney 75 How Candidates Are Selected 76 The Candidates Selected 97 The Role of Candidate Selection 102 Bibliography 105 6 CAMPAIGN STYLES AND METHODS Howard R. Penniman 107 The Length of Campaigns 110 The Roles of National and Constituency Parties 115 Campaign Strategies 119 Fighting to Win 134 Bibliography 136 CAMPAIGN FINANCE: CONTRASTING PRACTICES AND 7 REFORMS Khayyam Zev Paltiel 138 The Need for Funds 139 Sources and Methods of Raising Campaign Funds 142 Regulation and Reform of Campaign Finance 153 Public Financing 163 Democracy and Party Finance 170 Bibliography 171 8 MASS COMMUNICATIONS Anthony Smith 173 Television and Its Predecessors 173 Political Bias in the Media 179 The Role of Television in Election Campaigns 183 Rules Governing the Allocation of Broadcasting Time 187 Nature and Consequences of TV Campaign Coverage 189 The Connoisseurship of the Viewer 193 Bibliography 194 9 PUBLIC OPINION POLLS Dennis Kavanagh 196 Background 197 What Opinion Polls Do 199 The Influence of Private Polls 206 Objections to the Polls 210 Conclusion 213 Bibliography 215 10 ELECTORAL PARTICIPATION Ivor Crewe 216 Voting as a Form of Participation 216 Who Is Entitled to Vote? 219 On What Occasions Are People Entitled to Vote? 225 National Turnout Rates since 1945 232 Explanations of Variations in National Turnout 239 Final Thoughts 261 Bibliography 262 11 WHAT DECIDES ELECTIONS? Donald E. Stokes 264 Analytic Traditions 265 The At the Polls Series 270 Bases of Electoral Decision 273 The Conduct of Elections 277 The Primacy of High Politics 283 Sharpening the Analytic Edge 290 Bibliography 292 12 WHAT Do ELECTIONS DECIDE? Anthony King 293 Elections and the Formation of Governments 295 Elections and the Formation of Public Policy 300 Conclusions 320 Bibliography 323 DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS, DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENT, AND 13 DEMOCRATIC THEORY Jeane J. Kirkpatrick 325 The Descriptive Approach 327 Ideas, Ideals, and Analytic Systems: The Rationalist Approach 331 Words and Experience: The Case for a Descriptive Definition of Democracy 341 Bibliography 348 CONTRIBUTORS 349 INDEX 353 1 Introduction: Democratic and Nondemocratic Elections David Butler, Howard R. Penniman, and Austin Ranney "General elections," wrote Sir Lewis Namier, "are the locks on the stream of British democracy, controlling the flow of the river and its traffic." 1 His point can be generalized to the histories of all Western democratic nations. In each country's elections those who seek to direct its public affairs must defend their records and convince the voters that the policies they propose for the future are feasible, desira... ble, and best carried out by those who propose them. The office seekers try to show that their opponents' policies are ill conceived and that their past failures in office make them poor bets for managing the government in the future. The voters consider the competing cases and make their decisions. Their votes are cast and counted, the can­ didates elected take office, and a new government is formed or an exist­ ing one renewed. As the election debate is fought out in the campaign and as the expectations it arouses are satisfied or disappointed after the winning candidates take office, the whole politics of a democratic nation is encapsulated. Thus the electoral process lies at the heart of demo­ cratic government, and the critical difference between democratic and nondemocratic regimes is to be found in whether or nor they hold elections and, if they do, what kind. That, at any rate, is the major premise of the At the Polls vol­ umes published by the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research since 1975 on the conduct and outcomes of general elections in selected democratic nations throughout the world. By mid-1980 two volumes had been published on elections in Australia, France, and Japan and one each on elections in Canada, West Germany, India, Ireland, Israel, Italy, three of the four Scandinavian countries, New 1 Sir Lewis Namier, Avenue of History (London: Hamish Hamilton, 1952), p. 183. 1 INTRODUCTION Zealand, the United Kingdom,