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17: a Hazard Assessment for Texas CHAMPS ’17: A Hazard Assessment for Texas TEXAS GEOGRAPHIC SOCIETY NOVEMBER 7, 2017 (An HMGP 1791-107 Report) This page intentionally left blank. TABLE OF CONTENTS Section 1: CHAMPS ’17 Introduction .............................................................. 1 Section 2: The Texas Hazard Context ............................................................ 3 2.1: Climate ........................................................................................... 9 2.2: Department of Public Safety Regions ................................................ 11 2.3: Population ..................................................................................... 14 2.4: The Built Environment ..................................................................... 17 2.5: Exposure Summary ........................................................................ 24 Section 3: Weather-Related Hazard Risks .................................................... 25 Historical Overall Weather-Related Hazards Impacts .......................... 26 Future Weather-Related Hazard Risks .............................................. 34 3.1: Hurricanes, Tropical Storms and Depressions ..................................... 37 Historical Experience ..................................................................... 40 Future Risks ................................................................................. 47 3.2: Drought ........................................................................................ 51 Historical Experience ..................................................................... 53 Future Risks ................................................................................. 59 3.3: Hailstorms ..................................................................................... 64 Historical Experience ..................................................................... 66 Future Risks ................................................................................. 70 3.4: Severe Coastal Flooding .................................................................. 76 Historical Experience ..................................................................... 78 Future Risks ................................................................................. 83 3.5: Riverine Flooding ............................................................................ 88 Historical Experience ..................................................................... 91 Future Risks ................................................................................. 97 3.6: Tornados ...................................................................................... 101 Historical Experience .................................................................... 103 Future Risks ................................................................................ 109 3.7: Severe Thunderstorm Wind ............................................................ 114 Historical Experience .................................................................... 118 Future Risks ................................................................................ 121 3.8: Wildfire ........................................................................................ 124 Historical Experience .................................................................... 128 Future Risks ................................................................................ 131 i CHAMPS ’17: A Hazard Assessment for Texas TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONTINUED) 3.9: Winter Weather ............................................................................. 133 Historical Experience .................................................................... 134 Future Risks ................................................................................ 137 3.10: Lightning ...................................................................................... 139 Historical Experience .................................................................... 141 Future Risks ................................................................................ 144 3.11: Extreme Cold ................................................................................ 146 Historical Experience .................................................................... 148 Future Risks ................................................................................ 151 3.12: Extreme Heat................................................................................ 153 Historical Experience .................................................................... 154 Future Risks ................................................................................ 158 Section 4: Other Hazard Risks .................................................................. 161 4.1: Coastal Erosion ............................................................................. 162 4.2: Inland Erosion ............................................................................... 168 4.3: Subsidence ................................................................................... 174 4.4: Earthquakes ................................................................................. 183 Appendicles Appendix 1: Weather-Related Hazards Summaries .................................... 193 A1.1: Region 1 Weather-Related Hazard Summary ..................................... 194 A1.2: Region 2 Weather-Related Hazard Summary ..................................... 197 A1.3: Region 3 Weather-Related Hazard Summary ..................................... 200 A1.4: Region 4 Weather-Related Hazard Summary ..................................... 203 A1.5: Region 5 Weather-Related Hazard Summary ..................................... 206 A1.6: Region 6 Weather-Related Hazard Summary ..................................... 209 Appendix 2: Weather-Related Hazard Data and Processing ....................... 213 A2.1: Weather-Related Hazard Data ........................................................ 213 A2.2: Weather-Related Hazard Forecast Methodology ................................ 217 A2.3: Weather Pattern Related Hazard Change Rates ................................ 220 ii CHAMPS ’17: A Hazard Assessment for Texas MAPS GENERATED FOR THIS REPORT Section 2: 2.2.1: Department of Public Safety Regions ................................................ 11 2.3.1: Texas Estimated Population 2016 ..................................................... 14 2.3.2: Texas Social Vulnerability Index ....................................................... 16 2.4.1: Texas Building Values ..................................................................... 17 2.4.2: Region 1 Building Values per Square Mile .......................................... 18 2.4.3: Region 2 Building Values per Square Mile .......................................... 19 2.4.4: Region 3 Building Values per Square Mile .......................................... 20 2.4.5: Region 4 Building Values per Square Mile .......................................... 21 2.4.6: Region 5 Building Values per Square Mile .......................................... 22 2.4.7: Region 6 Building Values per Square Mile .......................................... 23 Section 3: 3.0.1: Percent Weather-Related Hazard Dollar Losses: 1996 - 2016 ............... 30 3.0.2: Total Historical Weather-Related Hazard Dollar Losses ........................ 31 3.0.3: Region 2 Weather-Related Hazard Dollar Losses ................................. 33 3.0.4: Weather-Related Hazard Dollar Loss Forecast .................................... 36 3.1.1: Hurricane/TS/D Wind Risk Zones (100-yr storm) ................................ 38 3.1.2: Hurricane TS/D Storm Track Events by County .................................. 39 3.1.3: Historical Hurricane TS/D Dollar Losses ............................................. 44 3.1.4: Historical Hurricane TS/D Dollar Losses in Region 2 ............................ 45 3.1.5: Harris County Hurricane TS/D Storm Tracks ...................................... 46 3.1.6: Hurricanes, TS/D Dollar-Loss Forecast ............................................ 47 3.2.1: Historical Drought Dollar Losses ....................................................... 57 3.2.2: Historical Drought Dollar Losses in Region 5 ...................................... 58 3.2.3: Drought Dollar Loss Forecast ......................................................... 59 3.2.4: Forecast Drought Dollar Losses in Region 5 ....................................... 62 3.3.1: Historical Hailstorm Dollar Losses ..................................................... 69 3.3.2: Historical Hailstorm Dollar Losses in Region 1 .................................... 70 3.3.3: Hailstorm Dollar Loss Forecast ....................................................... 71 3.3.4: Forecast Hailstorm Dollar Losses in Region 1 ..................................... 75 3.4.1: Texas Storm Surge Basins ............................................................... 76 3.4.2: Historical Severe Coastal Flooding Dollar Losses ................................. 81 3.4.3: Historical Severe Coastal Flooding Dollar Losses in Region 2 ................ 82 3.4.4: Severe Coastal Flooding Dollar Loss Forecast ..................................... 83 iii CHAMPS ’17: A Hazard Assessment for Texas MAPS (CONTINUED) 3.5.1: Historical Riverine Flooding Dollar Losses .......................................... 95 3.5.2: Historical Riverine Flooding Dollar Losses in Region 6 .......................... 96 3.5.3: Riverine
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