RIPON SPECIAL REPO'RT ON THE SOUTH

October 1, 1977 Vol, XII, No. 19 50 cents

Politics: The South THE SOUTHERN STRATEGY: AN UPDATE

The GOP mastadons may have a new from its potential "new majority" of lease on life. That lease may be one moderate voters. As Jack Bass and Wal­ of the most dramatic byproducts of the ter DeVries observe in The Transforma­ current dispute over the Panama Canal. tion of Southern Po1itics:Sen. Barry Certainly for the three leading Repub­ "Goldwater's strategy killed the chance lican conservatives who will be up for for the Republican Party to assume a reelection in 1974, the Panama Canal role of reform in the one-party South, controversy is the best thing to hap­ and the GOP increasingly attracted the pen to their political futures since most reactionary elements of the re­ left office. gion to the party." Reflecting on the stupidity of the Nixon Administration , , and r.01itica1 policies, the authors note: John Tower will be able to mount their ' ... maturing Republican conservatives elephants and rush to the defense of in the South have begun to question America's indefensible military asset. the validity of the 'southern strategy' Their patriotism will be fervent, their in a region that includes 3.5 million emotion will be spirited, and their registered black voters. They have logic will be garb1ed. But it will be lost too many elections to Democrats good politics. And it may well save who won because of black votes alien­ the political hides of three men who ated from Republicans because of that late last year seemed headed for what­ strategy." ever is done with used Republican leath­ er. (All five southern Republican seats There are two truly hopeful and pos­ in the Senate will be up in 1978, How­ ~tive developments in the southern GOP. ever, Sen. , Jr. is con­ One is the realization that the party sidered safe and Sen. William Scott is must work from the bottom up in states thankfully retiring.) like , and to develop electable candidates who can Outside the South's aging conserva­ draw adherents into the party organiza­ tive trio, the GOP's hopes for 1978 are tion. The big elephant strategy has far less bright than Kevin Philipps failed too often, leaving party workers would have predicted in the aftermath with nothing to show for their money of Richard Nixon's 1968 victory. In no and efforts. The new password to elec­ state outside of is the GOP toral success is quality local candi­ likely to elect a Republican governor dates. In broadening the party's pool in 1978. And they will lose one in of candidates, the GOP will also broad­ . In no·state will they en its base. be likely to win an additional Senate seat, though spirited campaigns could Thankfully, the on1y-whites-we1come obviously cost them one or more of the strategy of the Nixon Administration Panama troika. And outside era has also been abandoned. Republi­ where a string of Democratic retire­ can National Chairman has ments presents some Republican oppor­ taken the lead in efforts to recruit tunities, there are few GOP openings electable black candidates and attract for gains in the House of Representa­ black voters to white candidates. GOP tives: maybe one each in North Caro­ office seekers like U.S.Reps. Robert lina, South Carolina, and Georgia. Trib1e(R-Va.) and (R-La.) have practiced the Brock doctrine. So The GOP in the So»th is in sad is Virginia attorney general candidate shape. Its right tUFa in the 1960s Marshall Coleman. The new day is the and early 1970s has alienated it so~thern GOP is pe~haps best epitomized

.-- ~ .... by newspaper photo of Sen. Strom Thur­ mond escorting his six-year-old daugh­ The Reagan wing of the party seems ter to her first day of classes at a as hell-bent on the destruction of the fully integrated Columbia, S.C., school. party as Brock is hell-bent on its re­ Nobody ever said Thurmond couldn't construction. As respected southern adapt. political analyst Jack Bass wrote this summer in the Washington Post:"The in­ The message that the GOP needs more ternal disputes over party policy not than ideological purity to win elections only drain energy away, but the re­ is a hard one to accept. The idea that cent Republican record of defeat leave the Panama Canal is a GOP-lifesaver is little to attract bright and able youn a tempting one, but one that some of the southerners interested in political ca South's more perceptive leaders don't eers." buy. '~It' s one of' those things tht;tt' s here today and gone tomorrow. You re Helms may well win reelection next not going to get people into the Republi­ year. His victory will be the ultimat can Party by talking about the Panam~ goal of the archconservatives who now Canal,"says one Deep South party offl.­ control his state's party. But the cial. "You have to talk about people party's efforts to win other offices issues." will be impoverished. A Helms reelec­ tion will get press headlines, but the The GOP's problems in the South run really good news for the southern GOP much deeper after all than a ditch across will come in other states where more the isthmus of Panama. farsighted state leaders have seen the wrecked a good deal of what remained of need to recruit quality candidates for the Southern GOP from Nixon's Southern local offices. Helms has a holding Strategy and Watergate. Carter's sup­ strategy---for holding onto the canal port in the South has remained fairly and holding onto his office. Elsewhere solid. As Scripps-Howards' Ted Knap in the South, political retardation is wrote this summer: not so prevalent. "A Republican National Committee of­ ficial conceded that there is no evidence JALABAMA I Back in 1964, the of Carte~ support in the South crumbling state GOP elected three congressmen, or eroding. The GOP has not given up all of whom have kept tenacious hold below the Mason-Dixon line, but the high of their seats ever since. Their hopes born in the 1964 Goldwater cam­ election has constituted the high wa­ paign and expanded in the 1972 Nixon re­ ter mark for Alabama Republicans, election have flickered and dimmed.' who have had to struggle to elect a single legislator. Party Chairman RNC political director Charles Black Bill Harris intends to concentrate r,rofesses optimism about Carter Country:: on legislative and local races next 'Jimmy Carter is a passing phenomenon. year in an effort to improve the GOP's The Democrats won't always have a south­ recent dismal performance in all but erner to run for the White House. We the congressional races. It is a have a natural constituency down there task made harder by the necessity tor in the South, and we're going to capital­ Harris to smooth out the r0ugh edges ize on it sooner or later." And indeed, left by a Ford-Reagan split in party the GOP has been remarkably successful leadership in 1976. this year in winning special elections, where the RNC's expertise and aid has And it is a task made even more been put to good use. difficult by the inclination of many would-be officeholders to take their Black's own elevation to the RNC chances in a crowded Democratic pri­ post is a symbol of Republican trouble, mary rather than make a futile run on however. Black's former organization, the GOP label. One member of the GOP the National Conservative political Ac­ state committee was even elected to tion Committee, has been notable for the legislature this year as a Demo­ the discord it has sown in northern crat. And even a longshot gubernator­ Virginia GOP circles. Black's former ial hopeful like former Auburn pigs­ mentor Sen. Jesse Helms, kin star would rather switch is not~ble for his expositions on ideo­ to the Democrats than compete for a logical purity and practice of the same. dubious designation by the GOP. A right wing takeover of the Tarheel GOP has driven moderates from the party. Former Cullman County Probate The intolerance of Republicans like Judge Guy Hunt is seeking the Republi­ Helms is a sympton of the GOP's prob­ can nomination for governor---and even lems, not its potential. hopes that will return the support Hunt gave him in 1976--- bab1y the model of the bottom-up stra­ but no one seriously expects that a tegy for the Dixie GOP. Both senator­ Republican will replace . ial and gubernatorial offices will un~ Gov. Wallace is, of course, running for doubted1y be vacated by incumbents in the seat now held by Sen. John Sparkman, 1978, but the GOP's energies will be but lack of courtesy in preempting a expended at the local and legislative retirement announcement has angered level where the GOP has targeted cer­ Sparkman supporters. Still. although tain counties for short-term gains. It Wallace has had his troubles with the has sought candidates more noteworthy 1eg!slature and with his wife, he wo.u1d for their civic-mindedness than for have to be the odds-on favorite to win their ideological purity. The GOP al­ the seat. Two Democratic state sena­ ready managed to pick up one legisla­ tors have declared their interest, but tive seat in a special election this no Republicans have emerged to challenge year---in addition to the two gained Wallace. in 1976. The real attention is on the Demo­ The top of the ticket sfots will cratic gubernatorial primary where a not be ignored, but the GOP s goals big field is shaping up. It includes will not be unrealistic. The state's Lt. Gov. (currently hated most popular Democratic po1iticians--­ by Wallace); former Gov. and there are a number---wi11 be vying (previously hated and probably still for those spots. Gov. (D) disliked by Wallace); Attorney General is expected to step down in order to Bill Baxley (hated by a number of good seek Sen. John L. McClellan's seat. ole boys for sending them to jail); McClellan's health has been poor and and State Sen. Sid McDonald. Baxley he is not expected to seek reelection. has managed to break up a number of Pryor will not. be his favored candi­ Alabama traditions---1ike rural speed date, however, since the then-congress­ traps---whi1e avoiding Wallace's anger. man nearly defeated him in a 1972 pri­ Unless voters hold a Penthouse magazine mary runoff. ar.tic1eagainst him, he may be the state's next governor. McClellan is thought to favor U.S. Ray Thornton(D). a moderate who would Republicans will be concentrating have extensive financial backing. on enlarging their one-member delega­ Thornton's successors as attorney gen­ tion in the legislature., When the eral, now-U.S.Rep. Jim Guy Tucker(D) state shifted from multiple to sing1e­ and present Attorney General Bill C1in­ member districts in 1974, RepUblicans ton (D) are also considering a Senate expected GOP faces to blossom like mag­ run---as is U.S.Rep. Bill A1exander(D). nolias. Watergate proved to be a kill­ Clinton ran unsuccessfully against ing frost and Jimmy. Carter proved to the state's fourth congressman, U.S. have an equally chilling effect. Har­ Rep. (R), in ris would like to see 20-25 Republicans 1974. Hammerschmidt would have been in the lower house and 3-5 in the State a serious GOP contender for the spot Senate in 1978. It would be a consid­ had he not decided against the race. erable improvement over the two-man Instead, the GOP's leading choice is delegation earlier in this decade. "Bo" Holleman, who ran a disappoint­ ing race against Alexander in 1976. The congressional de1egation--­ Jack Edwards, Bill Dickinson, and JQhn Pryor would probably be given Buchanan---shou1d remain unchanged, un­ the edge in the Senate primary were less conservative purists decide to ex­ it not for his recent quarrels with orcise the relative moderate Buchanan. the Arkansas Education Association and the state AFL-CIO. The liberal I~SAS I When Winthrop Rock- vote to which he was heir in the 1972 e~r was alive and governor, this primary against McClellan will undoubt­ state was perhaps the South's best ex­ edly be split in 1978 among several ample of a top-down strategy. With the candidates. passing of the late governor, the GOP's percentages in statewide races frequent­ There is also a multi-candidate ly bordered on the pathetic. The GOP field for the Democratic nomination came closest to success when Republican for governor---headed by Attorney Gen­ Judy Petty nearly upset U.S.Rep.Wi1bur eral Clinton and Lieutenant Gov. Joe Mills in 1974. Purcell (D) , a representative of the Democratic old guard. The GOP's can­ The state GOP has now reversed its didate is likely to be State Republi­ strategy and along with Alabama, is pro-" can Chairman Lynn Lowe, who would probably resign his post to make the for the GOP nomination, but Eckerd has race. substantial advantages in money and name recognition as a consequence of his Under Lowe's leadership • the GOP direction of the Eckerd drug store chain. has once again begun to cultivate the Frey, however, maintains that Eckerd is black voters that Rockefeller once breaking an earlier promise to back him drew to the Republican standard. for the gubernatorial nomination. If There is some hope too that Rockefel­ the GOP race does not degenerate into ler's son, Win Paul, will some day name-calling, there is a possibility pick up his father's political lega­ that Frey might accept the nomination cy and become a candidate himself. for lieutenant governor, according to St. Petersburg Times political editor I In Florida, the Howell Raines. Says Raines:"A1ready Democrats gave a party and everybody fading is speculation that Eckerd and came. It's called the gubernatorial the GOP might be bold enough to pick game. The big names in the party are the party's only proven statewide win­ virtually -all included: Attorney Gener­ ner, Public Service Commissioner Paula al Robert Shevin, who combines liberal F. Hawkins, to run for lieutenant gov­ Dade Count support with backing from ernor. Right now~ Republican leaders law and order con~ervatives; Lt. Gov. don't seem to want to win badly enough Jim Williams, a moderate conservative to break the sex barrier in Florida's who needs some help from outgoing gubernatorial po1itics."( A third po­ Gov. ; State Sen. Bob tential candidate for the GOP nomina­ Graham, a Dade County liberal who's tion backed out early. Millionaire bank­ gained fame by his work-a-job-a-day er and environmentalist Nat Reed threw campaign; State Treasurer , his support to Eckerd.) whose frequent campaigns have made his name a bit too familiar; Secre­ With potentially strong primary tary of State Bruce A. Smathers, who challenges to GOP U.S. Reps. J.Herbert has built his political career on his Burke(R-12) and Richard Ke11y(R-5) along father's name identification; and with the retirement of Frey, there is St. Petersburg businessman Raleigh some potential for reduction in the GOP Greene,Jr. ranks in Congress. Former Frey law part­ ner has been mentioned as Geographical and ideological a possible candidate for the 9th C.D. splits make the outcome difficult to seat he held primary to his election predict but Shevin is considered the to the Senate. Now dealing in Winter Democratic primary leader. Graham's Park real estate after acquittal in unusual campaign---spending a day as two extortion trials, he has been urged a bellhop, he ended up carrying She­ by GOP leaders to return to politics. vin's bags---make him an unpredict­ able threat. Republican ranks in the state leg­ islature have been reduced by defections The Republicans have a narrower as well as electoral losses. Although field although a bitter primary might the GOP hopes to regain some of its pre­ give the party a chance to regain the vious strength in the legislature in position that Claude Kirk held for 1978, 'real gains may have to awai t the four controversial years in the 1960s. elimination of multiple-member districts. Former General Services Administrator (R) challenged Kirk for the I GEORGIA I When Jimmy Carter GOP nomination when Kirk sought a sec­ was , state law .ond term in 1970. He lost the primary prevented him from succeeding himself. but went on to win a Senate primary in For Gov. Carter, it was a good thing 1974. Without the presence of an Am­ because he might well have had a hard­ erican Independent party candidate in er time running for reelection than the general election race, he might for President. Carter's national popu­ well have defeated Sen. Richard Stone larity tended to resurrect his home­ (D) . state image. This era of Goober Feel­ ing, however, was the jolt that GOP Eckerd's polls now show him a 2-1 congressional candidate leader over U.S.Rep. Louis Frey for (D) didn't need last year. next year's gubernatorial nomination. Frey's political reputation suffered Gingrich deserved to win as much some abuse last year over his handling as any Republican in 1976. He was a of the Ford primary campaign in the young, articulate candidate who was state. He has been campaigning hard making his second race against U.S. Rep. John Flynt, an old, undistinguish­ tion in the state legislature. This ed beneficiary of the congressional has been the focus of new GOP State seniority system. In 1974, Gingrich Chairman Rodney Cook(R), who has em­ was washed away by Watergate. In 1976, phasized the recruitment of quality he was caught by Carter. But in 1978 rather than quantity candidates. Com­ John Flynt may well be turned out of bined with the party's new outreach to office because of his conduct of the black voters, the GOP has begun the job he never wanted: chairman of the groundwork for some happy returns come House Committee on Standards of Con­ November 1978. duct. History may have finally given Gingrich a favorable turn of the The type of candidate the GOP must cards. nominate and elect is typified by State Rep. John Savage, the former candidate The election of Gingrich in the for lieutenant governor who was elected 3rd C.D. may well be the highest of­ this year to fill the spot vacated by fice to which Georgia Republicans can now-Associate Attorney General Michael reasonably aspire in 1978. Sen. Sam Egan. Savage will not be making any Nunn and Gov. George Busbee are con­ statewide moves in 1978, but he would sidered too entrenched to challenge. be a prime candidate in 1980 against There's talk that Bert. Lance could Sen. Herman Talmadge (D) , the venerable win election on a wave of public sym­ Georgia politician whose divorce---and pathy, but emotion will eventually accompanying allegations of heavy drink­ be replaced by reason---the sort of ing---may have cracked the foundations reason that gave Lance only 17 per­ of his rural support. cent of the gubernatorial primary vote in 1974. I I This may be the Lance has also been talked about only state in the South where the Re­ as a possible candidate against U.S. publican Party can truly be said to Rep. Larry McDonald, the 1aetri1e­ have been a growth industry in recent lobbying member of the conservative years. U.S.Rep. David Treen(R-lst} shadow cabinet. McDonald has served became the first Republican to repre­ two terms because the Republican sent the state in this century when candidate in 1974 and 1976 presented he was elected in 1972. In the 1st little ideological alternative for C.D. W. became the second moderate Democrats. A more moderate when he won a special election in the conservative l~ke State Rep. Ken Nix 6th C.D. in 1975. And Robert Living­ might do McDonald in if the Democrats ston became the third when he won don't do it first in their primary. another special election in the 1st C.D. in 1977. Serious GOP challenges are probable in seyera1 other districts, but their It is an impressive record, but chances of success are problematical. it must be remembered that each won The GOP stands a much better shot at under special circumstances. Treen dramatically improving its representa- had waged an effective campaign for governor earlier in 1972 and had run for Congress three times in the 19- 60s. Furthermore, he was seeking an open seat---as was Moore in 1974 when incumbent archconservative John Rar­ ick(D) was defeated in his party's primary. In Moore's case, a disputed general election led to a court-order­ ed special election in which Rarick's old supporters helped defeat a liberal Democrat. In Livingston's case, he al­ so was the beneficiary of a special election after running a close race against now-jailed Richard A. Tonry(D) last November. Livingston's victory is a tribute to hard work by both the candidate and the Republican National Committee, but it is also a function of some other special circumstances. Had the election been held two or more weeks earlier, Democrat Ron Faucheux would have been Johnston might be interested. John­ the victor. Instead, Faucheux succeed­ ston nearly beat Edwards in the 1971 ed in alienating the core of his sup­ Democratic primary and Long. of course, port---black and labor voters---by has the Kingfish tradition of his fa­ voting against a new corporate tax ther to emulate. Less po1itica1~y. which the state legislature had pro­ fanciful. perhaps, is the suggestion posed to finance an increase in teach­ that U.S.Rep. Gillis Long(D-8) might er salaries. The AFL-CIO disendorsed want to continue the Long gubernator­ the state representative and black ial tradition. leaders held discussions with Living­ ston. kMIS~ISSIPiI I In recent years. iss ssipp has epitomized the rise The GOP candidate was ready for iri southern influence within the GOP. his new converts. His media portrayed Clarke Reed was the avenging angel him as a former welder from a poverty of southern conservatives who warned background who had gained solid mid­ the GOP of the evils of progressive dle class stability with wife and kids. policies. Under Reed's leadership, Faucheux, by contrast, was portrayed the GOP elected two Republican con­ as an immaculately groomed bachelor gressman and came close to electing with rather plastic movie star good Gil Carmichael to both the Senate looks that betrayed few of the ravages and the State House. The party was of life. The difference in the two a model of what could potentially be men's ages was accentuated by the achieved by a unified party in a fact that Faucheux still lived at state where the Democrats were chron­ home. ically split. Livingston aggressively courted The 1976 presidential race turned the black as well as the blue collar the political tables in . vote. He won over one fifth of the The GOP emerged from Kansas City bad­ black vote, an incredible showing for ly split and the Democrats have re­ a Lousiana Republican. In this in­ paired their most grievous differ­ stance, he ironical~y benefitted from ences. Moreover, the opportunity for Faucheux's support from the district's one of the state's three top Republi­ biggest segregationist organization cans to succeed Sen. James Eastland in Orleans Parish. (D) in 1978 may never materialize. Eastland shows no signs of relinquish­ Livingston's superior media and ing the power he has 'accumulated in superior financing were crucial to his 36 years in Congress. If Eastland his victory. Both and is reelected in 1978 and serves out George Bush, Jr. headlined fundrais­ his term, he will establish a Senate ers during the campaign. And several record for 10ngevitY7--probab1y the thousand Democrats switched to the most positive accomplishment to which GOP before the August primary. One he can aspire. Democratic legislator even made the cross-party hop. Had Eastland retired in 1978. a long line of Democratic hopefuls might The GOP may-have one more district have formed to succeed him: Gov. Cliff in which they can capitalize on spe­ Finch, U.S.Reps. G.V."Sonny" Montgom­ cial circumstances to elect a Repub­ ery and David Bowen, and former Gov. lican. 's 3D-year hold Bill Waller. Finch is unpopular with on the rural 5th C.D. ended in 1976. many Democratic officials, but he is U.s. Rep. Jerry Huckaby barely kept unlikely to test his grassroots strength it in the Democratic column, and the by opposing Eastland. Waller may be GOP will make a major effort to cut more tempted. but he has a weaker base. short his career in 1978. Only former Lt. Gov. Charles Sullivan is considered a likely Democratic op­ Otherwise, the GOP will concentrate ponent. As columnist Paul Pittman wrote on holding what it's got---which may recently: be particularly difficult in the case What it boils down to is that no po­ of Livingston's 1st C.D.---and set its tential candidate who perceives himself sights on the 1979 gubernatorial race as having a future in public affairs is when controversial Gov. willing to take the calculated risk of (D) promises to retire. Lt. Gov. opposing the state's senior senator in James E. Fitzmorris. Jr., will be wait­ the Democratic primary ... ing to step up to the governorship. What Eastland strategists fear most but there has even been speculation is that one credible candidate in the that Sens. Russell Long and Bennett race could trigger a deluge of relative unknowns who might make the campaign -for spite his deep involvement in right the exercise, and in the process force wing politics. It is that image that a bruising runoff where the odds would Democrats hope to destroy. be uncertain. The leading Democratic contender Gil Carmichael has not announced to do just that is Luther Hodges, Jr., whether he will seek the Senate again son of the former governor and until or wait for the gubernatorial mansion he retired to campaign, chairman of the to post a vacancy in 1979. Should East­ North Carolina National Bank, He be­ land seek reelection, it is unlikely came the leading "name" candidate when that U.S.Reps. Thad Cochran and Trent Superior Court Judge Sam J. Ervin III, Lott wi1i abandon their safe seats to son of Senator Sam, decided against tilt at the Senate's president pro tem­ making the race. Ervin's former Water­ pore. All three will have to weigh the gate counsel, now Attorney General Ru­ odds with the deep splits within the fus Edmisten, has yet to make up his state GOP in mind. political mind. Though he has about as many principles as smarts, Edmisten Wounds from the bitter battle be­ could attract considerable organization tween Reagan and Ford supporters within support for a Senate race. State Sen­ the state delegation were reopened re­ ators McNeill Smith and Lawrence Davis cently by the publication of Jules Wit­ are not expected to have top spots in cover's The Pursuit of the Presidency. the primary, but State Insurance Com- Publication of some of the book's con­ missioner John R. Ingrams could use clusions in the Jackson Sunday newspaper his maverick image to build electoral brought an outraged response from W.D. strength. "Billy" Mounger, the state Reagan lead­ er and premier money raiser. Mounger Although the next gubernatorial elec­ was'a prime backer of Carmichael in pre­ tion is not until 1980, there are prelim­ vious elective outings, but Carmichael inary maneuvers as Gov, James Hunt(D) at­ alienated Mounger last year through his tempts to win approval for a proposal fervent support of . Moun­ that he be allowed to succeed himself. ger has said that he "would not be do­ As in Alabama the governor and lieuten­ ing much for Mr. Carmichael in the fu­ ant governor are not on particularly ture." good terms. That phenomenon is not par­ ticularly unusual in the South where lieu­ MOunger reserves his harshest words tenant governors see themselves as fu­ however , for former chairman Reed whom, ture governors and present governors see he says, was guilty of "quadrip1icity" lieutenant governors as obstacles to in his switch from Ronald Reagan to their legislative goals. Lt. Gov. Ford. Says Mounger," ... no one con tends James 'Green(D) understandably considers that we would have lost the delegation Hunt's succession proposal to be unac­ without the blatantly crass sellout ceptably greedy. So do GOP leaders, techniques of Reed et a1 for their own who are seeking to block the proposal. vain-glorious, egocentric benefits." State Chairman Charles Pic~ering is It's not that the GOP has any ob­ struggling to heal these festering vious candidates for governor in 1980. wounds with some success. It is, how­ The He1mification of the GOP has left ever, no easy task. room for few interests that compete with the reelection of Jesse. "Every­ I NORTH CAROLINA I It is hard to under­ thing's geared to Jesse's basket," says stand what Sen. Jesse He1ms(R) has one disenchanted RepUblican. Even U.S. against Panama President Omar Torrijos. Rep. James Martin(R-9th) could be sucked Helms may owe his reelection to Torri­ down by the Helms organization. The jos. Otherwise rational voters are new GOP leadership in Charlotte is par­ rallying to the Helms banner as a re­ ticularly narrow-minded. It has already sult of his outspoken opposition to the pushed State Sen. Carolyn Mathis into Panama Canal Treaty. Without that the Democratic Party by threatening her treaty, Helms would be highly vulner­ elimination. Both moderates and women able. It allows the former news broad­ are finding the Tarhee1 GOP to be in­ caster to make political inroads out­ creasingly intolerable. After losing 40 state legislators in 1974, the GOP side his East North Carolina strong­ can ill afford such exclusionary tac­ hold. tics. As the Durham Morning Herald's Democrats now feel that their best Bill Gilkeson observes, "Republican have chance of defeating Helms is an appeal so little strength in the legislature to party loyalty and a campaign to min­ this session that they don't constitute imize ticket splitting. Helms projects a real opposition party. The main re­ sistance to Hunt seems to come from a nonpolitical image in the state de- Green and less obviously, from House Speaker Carl Stewart." It is not ob­ vious that Helms cares. He has to wor­ Edwards was elected in 1974 as a re­ rv about Genp.rAl Torr;;OH. sult of independent voters' reactions to machi~ations in the Democratic party. SOUTH CAROLINA The state GOP al- The W1nner of the Democratic gubernator­ ready had its share of troubles when ial was Charles. "Pug" Ravenel ' but a South Carolina Gov. James B. Edwards Democrat1c court challenge of Ravenel's (R) took a summer trip to South Afri­ residency credentials kicked him off ca. His criticism of American poli­ the ballot. Former U.S.Rep. William cy toward Africa and his defense of Jennings Bryan Dorn(D) was then upset the South African government made fel­ by Edwards. Actually, the GOP's nominee low Republicans cringe. "The whole for lieutenant governor, Carroll Camp­ trip was poor judgment and the re­ bell, was given a better shot at elec­ marks just added to it," concluded tion. Campbell, who was popular in ur­ former state chairman and Nixon aide ban areas, disassociated himself from Harry Dent. " ••• the governor's re­ Edwards in search of ticket splitters. marks are not going to enhance our The strategy backfired when Edwards position among blacks," added GOP Na­ Won and Campbell didn't. tional Committeeman Ray Harris. Campbell is now intent on running Edwards plans to resume the prac­ for the 4th C.D. spot in Congress. In­ tice of dentistry, but Republicans cumbent U.S.Rep. (D) is con­ wish he'd kept his own mouth shut. sidered a prime candidate for retire­ The South Carolina GOP had been work­ ment after the embarrassment of disc10~ ing to get black voters into the GOP sures regarding use of his staff and column and had been holding meetings prestige to further his financial in­ toward to capture a portion of South terest in a bicentennial coin enterprise. Carolina's 26 percent black vot~ GOP State Rep. Nick Theodore(D) would also State Chairman Dan Ross has argued like to succeed Mann. that "blacks in South Carolina can develop leverage by not being in the Meanwhile, the GOP is without a Democratic bag." Edwards' comment that truly viable gubernatorial candidate. "black influence in American politics" Edwards' victory in 1974 is widely con­ distorted the South African govern­ sidered a fluke, the repetition of ment's positions in the which would require a genuine miracle. didn't help. Indeed GOP candidates for any constitu­ tional office are in short supply. The The Committee for the Survival of party realizes that its future lies a Free Congress has been pushing Ed­ nearer the grassroots. The Democrats wards to challenge U.S.Rep. Mendel J. are unlikely to repeat the fratricidal Davis in a district that is over one conduct that permitted Edwards' victory. third black. There had been earlier Still, there will be a spirited three­ suggestions that Sen. Strom Thurmond(R) way race for the Democratic gubernator­ ought to retire in favor of an Edwards' ial nomination. Former State Sen. Rich­ candidacy in 1978. Oddly enough, Ed­ ard Riley, the man Campbell succeeded wards' fumbling came after a year in in 1976 in the legislature, is the Dem­ which he was comparatively successful ocratic heir to Ravenel's liberal sup­ in his chief executive role. In his porters. Lt. Gov. W. Brantley Harvey, relations with the overwhelmingly Dem­ Jr., is the heir to old line Democratic ocratic legislature, noted the Charles­ support. And the wild card is State town News and Courier's Hugh Gibson, Sen. Tom Turnispeed, a former archcon­ "He did prevail where most of the big servative Republican turned reform pop­ issues were concerned, and where he ulist Democrat. Riley's poor campaign lost he appeared to retain a consider­ start and President Carter's snub of able amount of respect and liking among Harvey earlier this year may open some the legislators. But where Edwards room for Turnipseed, who has a talent really scored this year was with the for generating front-page ink. One Re­ public, for whom he went to bat with publican was recently quoted as calling his vetoes of the cigarette and gaso- Turnipseed "crazy as a damn bedbug, but line tax increases." Edwards, unfortun­ crazy in a smart way." ately has a tendency to disappear abroad for long periods. He did so late last This year, Ravenel has announced his year in a ~rip to Nationalist China and intention to contest Sen. Strom Thurmond. Israel that Gibson described as illustra­ A poll taken by Campbell indicated a Thur­ tive of Edwards' "lemming-like march to mond-Ravenel contest would be a hot one self-destruction." Having recovered the Thurmond is expected to wage an indepen­ prestige he lost 1976, Edwards squandered dent campaign and his popu1ar1ity will it again. likely have little impact on the guber- ,.

~atorial race. Only once, in 1970, did revoked. In lines that Nixon's chief rhurmond put his prestige on the line be­ aides probably would have wished to lind the GOP gubernatorial candidate, Al­ hear, Blanton said:"I am the chief ex­ )ert Watson. He lost' Ravenel has soli­ ecutive and I am invested with the pow­ ~ited and been promised presidential sup­ er of pardon and parole, and I intend ?Crt in this contest. A straw poll by to use that power." Blanton later ex­ ~ Columbia newspaper showed Thurmond tended his assault on the press when ~head of Ravenel by a 50-32 percent mar- he told a hometown press conference: 1in. Ravenel will have to rely on urban "What have I done wrong except to ques­ ~nd b~ack support as well as his image tion your integrity, and believe me, it as a "new politics politician. And he needs questioning." will , in addition, have to overcome the splits in the Democratic party that Thur­ In his brief term as governor, Blan­ nond will be eager to exacerbate. ton has quarreled with just about every­ body worth quarrelling with. As the I TENNESSEE I While the national Memphis Commercial Appeal's William Ben­ media has focused on Sen. Howard Baker's nett observed recently,"The Blanton ad­ relationship to the Panama Canal, the ministration and some of its members and Tennessee press has been headlining friends have been accused of so much pol­ Gov. 's relationship to a itical hanky-pany and wrongdoing since convicted murderer. The murderer in 1975 that it takes an awful lot to gen­ question became the center of contro­ erate strong public outrage these days." versy when it was revealed that he was But the pardon case has so succeeded--- both the sqn of a Blanton patronage it led the Commercial Appeal to editor­ aide and the beneficiary of a state ially label Blanton "Our Hillbilly Nixon." work-release program whereby he was It may well be that Blanton, not Howard given a job as a state photographer Baker, is the state GOP's biggest asset. after serving less than two months of his 20-40 year prison term. Blanton Tennessee Republicans would not be has a habit of turning mud into quick particularly disturbed if the state con­ sand and he quickly availed himself of stitution were changed to allow Blanton the opportunity in this case. Label­ to seek a second term. He would, how­ ing the young murderer "an outstand­ ever, create problems for GOP record­ ing, a fine young man," Blanton prom­ keepers since he would undoubtedly have ised to fully pardon him before leav­ to be listed as campaign donation in ing office. lieu of services rendered. As usual, there are a long li~t of Tennessee Demo­ The media quickly dispelled any no­ crats who want Blanton's job: House tion that the state's photographer was Speaker Ned McWherter, State Rep. James the emotional victim of marital jeal­ Lanier, State Rep. Roger Murray, Nash­ ousy. The murderer sat down and had ville Mayor , Oak Ridge breakfast and a drink with his former banker Jake Butcher, State Sen. Anna CIe­ wife and best friend before shooting ment O'Brien, Public Service Commissioner them 18 times---an act that required Robert Clement, and Franklin Haney. him to reload his derringer eight times. As the appellate judge concluded," ••• The long list alone might be enough the evidence supports, at the very to warm GOP hearts had not Sen. James least, a conviction for second-degree Sasser(D) and Blanton himself emerged murder in each of these homicides." from such crowded primaries to defeat Despite the overwhelming evidence strong GOP candidates in 1974 and 1976. that the murders_had been premedi­ Tennessee Democra~s have learned how tated, Blanton has proclaimed his be­ to regroup and repel R~publican chal­ lief in the efficacy of Tennessee's lenges. The GOP undoubtedly will have penal rehabilitation process: "Don't a strong ticket. in 1978, however·. La­ you realize that 30 days can be time mar Alexander,' a former aide to Gov. enough for rehabilitation?" and Sen. Baker and 1974 GOP gubernatorial candidate, has long Blanton's ability to make the been considered the party's most log­ wrong grand gesture would make Rich­ ical candidate. However, the discus­ ard Nixon blush with embarrassment. sion of a constitutional extension of His pardon announcment was made on the governor's permissible term in of­ a special TV interview in which he also fice has led Winfield to express re­ called U.S.Rep. Robin Beard a "joke," newed interest in the office. Though suggested his critics were "stupid Dunn would be a strong candidate in and you haven't done your homewor~" the general election, he would have and that the license of the TV station problems in the GOP primary where on which he was appearing should be considerable an~mosity will be exhib- ited by East Tennessee Republicans Tower ••• There's been no growth in the who resented Dunn's refusal to open party since he was first elected." a medical school at East Tennessee Grover still believes he could have State University. beaten Gov. in 1972 had he received more Tower support. On Even more disturbing than a clash the Democratic side, the only opposi­ between the moderates Alexander and tion to Krueger to surface so far con­ Dunn is the possibility that State sists of Texas Insurance Board Chairman Rep. Harold Sterling might emerge as Joe Christie; , Tower's the winner of a three-way primary. 1972 opponent; and former Sen. Ralph Yar­ Typical of the line of reasoning from borough. Yarborough's trouble is that the 1976 state Reagan chairman is the name confusion helped elect Don Yarbrough following gem:"Lamar's a Vanderbilt to the state Supreme Court last year. graduate. I'm a Memphis State grad­ Yarbrough has since been indicted for uate. That immediately puts us in a perjury and forgery. The name similar­ different social strata. I think I'd ity may hurt the 74-year-old liberal. categorize him as the country club set. Even thoUgh I.drive a Cadillac, The situation in the gubernatorial and have a successful business, proba­ race is more compli9ated. Briscoe ap­ bly my appeal is going to be middle pears to be the odds-on favorite to class. I come from the middle class. win a third term although he probably It hasn't been too many years that I will have to defeat Attorney General definitely was middle class." John Hill(D) in a primary. Though Briscoe's ability to hold the state Meanwhile, Sen. Baker seems immune budget in check has won him a large from a serious reelection challenge measure of voter approval, there is though Sen. Sasser insists his colleague some sentiment against his decision is beatable. He will help the party to seek a third term. In any event, if he can help shore up its increasing­ the GOP has had trouble attracting a ly weak bastion in East Tennessee. U.S. viable candidate. Both George Bush Rep. James H. Quillen (R-l) received 58 and appear happy in percent of the vote in 1976 and may other pursuits. face a stiffer contest next year from State Sen. Carl Moore. It may be the State GOP Chairman Ray Hutchinson only district where a changeover is announced in September that he would re­ possible. State GOP Chairman Tom Beas­ sign his post to seek the gubernatorial ley, however, will be concentrating on nomination. Twice named the outstand­ state legislative races, hoping to re­ ing legislator in the state by the Texas verse the GOP's steady decline in that Monthly, Hutchison defeated Reagan state area. For the Democrats, their future chairman Ray Barnhart for the party lead­ may be summed up in the letters "ABBB:" ership in 1976, but he has since grown Anybody But Blanton and Baker. bored and is looking for a new challenge. A man equally at home with good ole boy I TEXAS I John Tower (R) appears legislators from or urbane to have strengthened his hold on the Houstonians, Hutchison has accomplished Republican Senate nomination, but U.S. the formidable task of filling nearly all Rep. Robert Krueger{D-21) appears to the vacant GOP county and precinct chair­ have been equally successful in his manships in Texas' far-fling counties. efforts to lock up the Democratic Sen­ With a rare talent for diplomacy, Hutch­ ate nomination. The race between the ison has been known to work well persons two men is shaping up as a battle of of diametrically opposite points of gas deregulation proponents---in oth­ view. er words, who can do more for the gas lobby. Krueger has led the fight for natural gas deregulation in the House Hutchison will undoubtedly benefit and opinions differ on whether smart from a tough primary campaign between oil money is shifting to the former Briscoe and Hill. The Democratic in­ Duke University dean. cumbent is a dull and colorless figure who surpasses in that regard his dull The recently remarried incumbent and colorless predecessor, Gov. Preston seems to have sewn up a good deal of Smith (D) , a feat many would have thought establishment money at a June fundrais­ impossible before the accession of Bris­ er although archconservative Hank coe. A rancher with vast acreage in the Grover was still making noises this area west of , Briscoe bas spring about opposing Tower, saying, been criticized for his failure to com­ "My chances of beating Towt...L are the municate with the press and his long ab­ strongest because everybody's mad at sences from Austin spent at his Uvalde ranch. Hill, who ran unsuccessfully for Republicans now hold only two of the governor in 1968, stresses Briscoe's state's 24 congressional seats but a lack of leadership, which he asserts, large projected turnover in House seats leaves the state vulnerable to more fed­ may boost the GOP's possible pickups. eral intrusion. Many observers believe In addition to Krueger's seat, there that Texans don't want active leadership w.i11 be vacancies in the seats now and thus are not likely to be any happi­ held by U.S.Reps. George Mahon (D) , Bob er with activist state government than Poage (D) , and Omar Bur1eson(D). U.S. with activist federal policies. But Rep. Olin Teague's retirement is also Hi~l's argument may help capture liberal expected. and moderate voters who want activist government at both levels. Hill's most The GOP expects primary races for potent weapon, however, may be the pub­ the nomination to succeed Mahon between lic distrust of extended gubernatorial George Bush, Jr.; Sta;;e Rep. Tom Crad­ power. If reelected, Briscoe will have dick and former Odessa Mayor Jim Reese the opportunity to serve longer as gov­ with Reese given the edge. To succeed ernor than anyone in Texas history. Krueger, a primary race is expected be­ tween Doug Harlan the 1972-74 Republi­ Hutchison's ticket will be enhanced can nominee, and Tommy Loeffler, a for­ by the candidacy of former national Ford mer Ford legislative lobbyist and Tower campaign director James Baker for state staff member. No early favorite has attorney general. He will face the win­ been identified and the field may not ner of a Democratic primary between Sec­ yet be filled. The GOP nominee for retary of State Mark White and former Poage's seat will be Jack Burgess, who House Speaker , Jr. (the son ran a surprisingly strong race in 1976. of a former speaker-attorney genera1- Party pros considered Burgess' effort senator-governor who is now an associate one of the best organized since former justice of the Texas Supreme Court). U.S.Rep. Alan Steelman's 1972 campaign in Dallas. There is no recognized GOP The GOP's fate in 1978 may in part candidate for Burleson's and Teague's reflect the state's reaction to President seats although Republicans are optimis­ Carter, under whom the state has not tic. fared well. Since his inaugaration, Car- ter has broken his promise to back gas A hard race is expected by former deregulation, vetoed the sale of 100 jet U.S.Rep. Ron Paul against his success­ planes to Pakistan (resulting in the ful challenger in 1976, Bob Gammage(D). loss of 6,000 Texas jobs), broken a cam­ In the 24th C.D., which includes much paign pledge of $3-per-bushe1 wheat sup­ of the area between Dallas and Fort port payments, and with his support of Worth known as the Metrop1ex, Republi­ anti-boycott legislation, threatened can Leo Berman will challenge Dale Mi1- Texas- booming trade with Arab nations. ford(D) , who is remarkably more conser­ His failure to appoint Barbara Jordan as vative than his constituency. And attorney general and his appointment of strong races may also be run against fewer Hispanics than were made by Pres­ U.S.Rep. Richard.White, a lackluster idents Ford and Nixon have weakened Dem­ E1 Paso congressman, and U.S.Rep. John ocratic influence among minority groups. Young, limelight of a sex scandal in Texas voter groups are generally unhappy 1976 and possible Koreagate casualty with Bourbon Democratic rule. in 1978.

Texas politics is a complicated bus­ I VIRGINIA f Former Lt. Gov. iness and Jimmy Carter has made it more Henry Howell(D) has managed to narrow so. Both Briscoe and Krueger have been the gap separating him from present embarrassed by Carter's opposition to Lt. Gov. John Dalton(R). He has ac­ gas deregulation. Carter's secretary, complished that feat through tough Susan Clough, has not been embar~assed campaign statements that have been so by her boss's stand, however, and flew scurrilous that they've boiled away to Texas to help friend Krueger announce Howell's lead over his Republican op­ his candidacy in early July. On the ponent. other side of the political fence, Na­ tional Transportation Safety Board mem­ Howell began his rough stuff in ber Kay Bailey has expressed an inter­ his primary campaign against former est in running for office, possibly Attorney General Andrew Miller(D). against State Treasurer Jesse James. Apparently convinced that nastiness However, she dates GOP Chairman Hutchin­ wins votes, Howell's lowest blow came son and a dual candidacy may tempt pub­ perhaps when he said of a Dalton bro­ lic disfavor. chure,"This statement will equal what Goebbels did, in my opinion, who was a master propagandist during the days among black organizations and sug­ of Hi tIer. " Miller once noted that gested that Coleman is the most like­ "attacks on the motives and integrity ly Republican to win the November elec­ of others for reasons of political ex­ tion. Many liberal Howell supporters pedience have been a foundation of Mr. unable to stomach Lane's record will Howell's career." As Henry has got­ undoubtedly switch to Coleman. ten more vitriolic, press reaction to his third run for governor has gotten If Coleman does indeed become the more critical. Dalton himself was led lone statewide GOP winner, it will to withdraw from all joint campaign send some shock waves through the appearances with Howell. ranks of the ultraconservatives who have wrested control of the statewide The withdrawal may turn out to be GOP organization in recent years. For­ a mistake, however, since joint ap­ mer State GOP Chairman Richard Oben­ pearances could highlight the contrast shain has already been tagged as this between Dalton's restraint and Howell's group's heir to the retiring and dis­ unseemly and unVir~inian rancor. Run­ credited Sen. William Scott. The GOP's ning his own campa~gn may turn ~ut to decision to select next year's candi­ be Howell's biggest; mistake---w~th or date in a convention strengthens Oben­ without the appearance of good ole bud­ shain and company. dy Jimmy carter. The President may have seemed on shaky ground in his However, Obenshain will not get the joint appearances when he,attacked Dal­ GOP nomination by default if Elizabeth ton's failure to reveal h~s personal Taylor and husband have their way. For­ finances ••• particularly when Bert Lance mer Navy Secretary is still had hardly left town. only an outside shot at the nomination, however. Former Gov. Linwood Holton(R), The Democrats have fielded ~ "rain­ U.S.Rep.Caldwell Butler, and U.S. Rep. bow ticket" this year consisting of the G.William Whitehurst are also possible liberal Howell, the moderate Charles Senate entries, all taking a piece of Robb for lieutenant governor, and the the moderate and moderate-conservative conservative Edward E. Lane for attorney vote in the party. general. Robb is facing conservative A. Joseph Canada(R), who has sought to base Though the party's prospects could his campaign on opposition to the Panama be upbeat if Dalton and Coleman and both Canal treaty. Though the two men win, there will be a strong downbeat have exhibited few substantive dif­ side if they lose and the party's ero­ ferences on issues, Robb is considered sion in the legislature continues---as a shoo-in. Not so Lane whose conserva­ now seems likely. Factionalism---par­ tism has cost him the support of most ticularly the rabid ideological exclu­ of the state's black groups and almost sionism practiced in northern Virginia denied him the AFL-CIO's backing. ---continues to weaken the GOP. Fur­ ther erosion of the party's strength State Sen. J. Marshall Coleman, could occur next year if Obenshain the GOP candidate, has made good use faces former Attorney General Miller of Lane's record of unyielding sup- in the Senate race. Although Miller's port for "massive resistance7 to , path to' his party's primary is littered with live and aspiring Democrats, such school integration. col~ s pursu~t a NOvember matchup seems likely •• of the black vote has met w~th success

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