Comhairle nan Eilean Siar – Development Department SOCIO ECONOMIC UPDATE Ag Obair Comhla Airson nan Eilean Siar – Working Together for the Western Isles No.16 (12/10)

Population and Migration

Scotland’s Census 2011 The next census takes place on 27 March 2011. The results are used to determine how public funds are used for services such as education, health and transport. Personal information is protected and kept confidential for 100 years from the Census. Find out what questions will be asked about households and individuals and more on how the information will be used at ’s Census 2011.

Small Area Population Estimates

The mid 2009 population estimates were released by % Change the General Register Office for Scotland in September Data Zone Datazone Name 2001 - 2009 2010. The adjacent table shows the percentage S01002344 South -15.0 population change in ascending order from 2001 to S01002360 North Bayhead () -12.8 2009. S01002339 to Castlebay -11.5 S01002355 Newton to The three datazones with the highest estimated -11.2 S01002349 North Harris and Scalpay -11.0 percentage population decrease from 2008 to 2009 S01002350 Pairc and Kinloch -10.3 were: S01002352 -7.8 North Lochs -4.9 S01002343 Loch Eynort to Iochdar -7.7 to Port of Ness -4.3 S01002362 -7.6 North Benbecula to Grimsay -4.1 S01002364 North Manor Park -7.6 The three datazones with the highest estimated S01002346 East North to -7.5 percentage population increase from 2008 to 2009 S01002359 Goathill -6.8 were: S01002369 to -6.5 Newmarket 9.5 S01002372 to Borve -6.3 to Braighe 3.7 S01002347 West to Baleshare -6.1 S01002341 to South Boisdale Loch Roag 3.5 -5.9 S01002351 Uig and Bernera -4.8 S01002370 to -4.6 Percentage of Children Estimates S01002373 Galson to -3.8 The total number of children is estimated to have fallen S01002361 Coulegrain to Stenish -3.2 by 443 from 2001 to 2009. S01002353 Knock to -2.2 S01002345 North Benbecula to Grimsay -1.3 The following areas show the biggest estimated S01002348 South Harris 1.5 percentage increase in total children population since S01002368 to Back 2.8 2001: S01002342 Loch Boisdale 3.7 Newmarket 4.8% S01002358 Loch Roag 4.7 Habost to Port of Ness 2.4% S01002374 Habost to Port of Ness 6.2 S01002354 Melbost to Braighe 6.4 Marybank to Newvalley 2.3% S01002357 Springfield 8.2 The following areas show the biggest estimated S01002367 Tong to Upper Coll 8.9 percentage decrease in total children population since S01002340 North 10.6 2001: S01002371 to Tolsta 10.8 S01002365 Sheshader to Tiumpan Head 10.9 West North Uist to Baleshare -7.5% S01002363 Marybank to Newvalley 11.1 East North Uist to Berneray -6.8% S01002356 Central Stornoway 19.2 Barvas to Borve -6.1% S01002366 Newmarket 34.8

Mid Year Estimates 2001 & 2009 Page 2

The following areas show the biggest estimated The following areas show the biggest estimated percentage increase in total working age population percentage increase in total pensionable age since since 2001: 2001: North Harris and Scalpay 6.1% West North Uist to Baleshare 11.4% Carloway to Shawbost 4.1% Newton to Plasterfield 7.6% Vatersay to Castlebay 3.9% North Barra 7.1% The following areas show the biggest estimated The following areas show the biggest estimated percentage decrease in working age population since percentage decrease in total pensionable age since 2001: 2001: South Benbecula -7.3% Central Stornoway -4.3% Sheshader to Tiumpan Head -7.0% Newmarket -3.8% Coulregrein to -6.6% Tong to Upper Coll -3.6%

More detailed population estimates are available at the Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics website at datazone level. Life Expectancy By Administrative Area 2007-2009 The Registrar General for Scotland published a report on life expectancy on 16 September 2010. Life expectancy has improved over the last ten years, both within Scotland and the Outer , but still remains poor in comparison to other European countries. Scotland’s position relative to the UK and EU27 average figures is not improving and has worsened over the past 5 years. Life expectancy at birth for men in the is 73.5 years, ranked 29 out of the 32 Local Authority areas. Ten years ago life expectancy for men was 70.9 years, also ranked 29. In contrast, life expectancy at birth for women is 82 years, ranked 3. Ten years ago life expectancy for women was 79.5 years, rank 6. Life expectancy at age 65 is 15.7 for males, rank 27 and 20.5 for women, rank 3. Nationally the gap between male and female life expectancy continues to close, dropping from 5.5 years in 1997 -99 to 4.8 years in 2007-09. When comparing the gap between men and women in Council areas the Outer Hebrides has the largest gap, both at birth and at age 65. For life expectancy at birth there is a gap of 8.5 years (Glasgow City next highest at 6.3 years). At age 65 there is a gap of 4.8 years ( Glasgow City next highest at 3.6 years) . Men in the Outer Hebrides appear in the top ten areas in the and Northern Ireland with the lowest life expectancy at birth, ranked 4th and also in the top ten areas with lowest life expectancy at age 65, ranked 7th. Further information available from the GROS web site.

Increased Winter Mortality in Scotland 2009/10 Figures released by the Registrar General on 27 October 2010 on winter mortality showed that the trend for Scotland was downward, despite the unusually cold weather. In contrast, the figures for the Outer Hebrides show a significant increase in the number of deaths (26%) in the Winter months from 2008/09 to 2009/10. As shown on the following page the death rate increased significantly to 17.5 in the 1st quarter of 2010. The Registrar General said ‖ There is no single cause of additional deaths in winter. Very few are caused by hypothermia. Most are from respiratory and circulatory diseases such as pneumonia, coronary heart disease and stroke. In only a small proportion of deaths is influenza recorded as the underlying cause.‖

Provisional figures show that there were 147 deaths registered in Winter (Dec-Mar) in the Outer Hebrides in Outer Hebrides comparison to 117 in the previous year. In the preceding period (Aug-Nov) there were 115 deaths registered while in Increased Winter Mortality the following period (Apr-Jul) there were 103 deaths. This 2006/07 -7 resulted in an actual winter mortality figure of 38 for 2009/10. 2007/08 6 As shown in the adjacent table this represents a large increase on the figures for previous years, a figure of 9 being 2008/09 9 recorded in 2008/09. A negative figure appears when there 2009/10 38 were fewer deaths during the winter period than the average of the two ―non-winter‖ periods. Page 3

Migration Flows Between Council Areas 2008-2009 Migration (areas less than 5 excluded) Estimates for migration flows are available from the General Register Office for Scotland (GROS). The main source of data used for producing these estimates is GP registration information. In 2008/09 the majority of those who left the islands (192) moved to the rest of the UK (outwith Scotland), while 91 went overseas. The largest number (164) moving within Scotland went to Glasgow City , while 163 went to the Highland area. The numbers moving to other areas varied from 41 going to Edinburgh City to 1 going to East City Aberdeenshire Argyll&Bute Dumbartonshire and 1 to East Dumfries & Gallow ay Dundee City East Ayrshire Lothian. Edinburgh City Falkirk Fife Glasgow City Highland Inverclyde This trend is consistent over the Midlothian Moray North Lanarkshire period 2001 to 2009 with the Perth&Kinross Scottish Borders majority moving within Scotland South Lanarkshire Stirling West Dunbartonshire Overseas Rest of UK moving to Glasgow City and the Highland area. Births, Marriages and Deaths The General Register Office for Scotland Vital Events releases quarterly and annual figures for births, marriages and deaths. Birth Rate by Quarterly Return 2007-2010 As shown in the adjacent graph the birth rate in the Outer Hebrides fell from a peak of 11.6 (same as Scotland average) in the 14 3rd quarter of 2007 to a low of 7.7 for the 12 10 4th quarter of 2007. The Outer Hebrides 8 consistently has either the lowest or 6 4 second lowest birth rate in Scotland, but 2 in the 2nd quarter of 2010 the Outer 0

Hebrides had the 3rd lowest rate (8.7) popn. births1,000 per Q3, Q4, Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4, Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4, Q1, Q2, with Argyll & Bute (7.5) and East 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Dumbartonshire (7.8) with lower rates. Outer Hebrides Scotland

As shown in the adjacent graph the Outer Hebrides has on the whole followed the Death Rate by Quarterly Return 2007-2010 Scottish trend, but consistently has the highest death rate in Scotland. However, 20 18 in the 2nd quarter of 2010 Inverclyde had 16 14 the highest death rate (13.3) followed by 12 10 the Outer Hebrides (12.6). The 1st 8 6 quarter of 2010 shows a large increase in 4 2 the death rate to 17.5, the Scottish 0 average was 11.5. As highlighted on the popn. 1,000 deathsper Q3, Q4, Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4, Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4, Q1, Q2, previous page the winter mortality figure 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 also increased greatly in 2009/10. Outer Hebrides Scotland Marriages Page 4

In the Outer Hebrides the Marriages by Quarterly Return 2007-2010 marriage trend remains fairly

consistent with 100 marriages in 60 2007, 109 marriages in 2008 and 50 102 in 2009. There were 43 40 marriages in the first two 30 quarters of 2010. In percentage Number 20 terms there was an increase of 10 2.4% in the first two quarters of 0 2010 in comparison to the first two in 2009. In Scotland there was a 3.2% increase over the Q1,2007Q2,2007Q3,2007Q4,2007Q1,2008Q2,2008Q3,2008Q4,2008Q1,2009Q2,2009Q3,2009Q4,2009Q1,2010Q2,2010 same period. Outer Hebrides Labour Market

The latest release from NOMIS (Office for National Statistics) gives the following JSA JSA Claimant Rate 2007 to 2010 claimant rates for October 2010: 5 Outer Hebrides 2.9% 4 Scotland 3.8% 3 Great Britain 3.5% 2 1 The claimant rate has risen from 2.7% in September, while Scotland and Great Britain 0

remain the same. The claimant rate is lower %Age Working Claiming JSA Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 for all areas than it was in October 2009. JSA Oct-07 Jan-08Apr-08 Oct-08 Jan-09Apr-09 Oct-09 Jan-10Apr-10 Oct-10 rate reached its highest level in the Outer Hebrides this year at 3.9% in February 2010. Outer Hebrides Scotland Great Britain

A recent report by ScotPHO showed that National Insurance Numbers issued to foreign nationals to work in the Outer Hebrides numbered 510 (0.2% of the total number) from January 2002 to December 2008. This is 3.3% of the total population aged 16-59/64. Health Care & Welfare

Scotland’s Chief Medical Officer has published his Annual Report for Scotland 2009. In his report he discusses the merits of a step change to address the widening gap between the health of the rich and poor. Salutogenesis, the art and science of creating health, is a key theme of the report. People are healthier when they are given the skills and knowledge to help themselves. The Scottish Children’s Reporter Administration (SCRA) have published their Annual Report 2009/10. The overall number of children and young people being referred to the Reporter continues to fall for the third consecutive year. In the Outer Hebrides the number of referrals in 2009/10 has fallen from the previous year from 249 to 231. The source for the majority of those referrals was the police. However, the number of children’s hearings increased from 122 in 2008/09 to 155 in 2009/10.

Oesophageal Cancer Rates in Men up 50% Link Scottish Health Survey UK Comparisons Link Births in Scottish Hospitals 2008/09 Link Up in Smoke—Report by Ash Scotland Link Latest ISD Statistics Link Advice on Vitamin D Link Maternal and Infant Nutrition in Scotland Link Quarterly Reports on C Diff Link Know, Feel, Do—Health Behaviour Change Link Needs for Children in Residential Care Link TB Cases Highest Levels in 30 Years Link Does Weight Matter in Pregnancy? Link Diabetes Among Care Home Residents Link Adults with Learning Disabilities Link

Page 5 Education and Training

A recent report on Gaelic Medium Education carried out by the University of Edinburgh has highlighted the benefits of Gaelic Medium Education for school pupils. It adds to a growing body of research that Gaelic Education is a success for the pupils involved. This is in addition to the health benefits which are emerging from recent studies that show that those who are bilingual are less likely to develop Alzheimers or develop symptoms at least four years later than those who are monolingual. Pre-school and Childcare Statistics 2010 Link School Estate Statistics 2010 Link Communication Toolkit Link Higher Education Support 2009/10 Link New Agency to Lead Support for Education Link New Literacy Action Plan Link SQA Exam Results 2009/10 Link Lifelong Learning Age Participation Index 08/09 Link

Transport Travel & Tourism Agriculture Fisheries & Forestry

Household Transport in 2009 Link The Sea Fisheries Statistics for 2009 were published in Local Authority Cultural Participation 2007/08 Link September. Some findings: Overseas Travel & Tourism Q2 2010 Link The number of active vessels in Stornoway has fallen from SHS Transport Local Area Analysis 2007/08 Link 267 in 2008 to 258 in 2009, the loss of 9 vessels Total of 477 fishermen employed in Stornoway, 3rd Crime and Justice highest number of all districts (Fraserburgh 826, Ayr 583). Of these 370 fishermen regularly employed, 89 irregularly Fire Statistics Scotland 2008/09 Link employed and 18 crofters employed Police Officer Quarterly Statistics June 2010 Link Total landings for demersal, pelagic and shellfish has Crimes & Offences Involving Firearms Link fallen from 3,637 tonnes in 2005 to 3,452 tonnes in 2009 Economy

Rural Scotland Key Facts 2010 Link Evaluation of Third Sector Investment Link SNAP Newsletter Issue 4 Link Key Sector Statistics Link Public Sector Employment 2nd Q 2010 Link Scottish Annual Business Statistics 2008 Link Gross Domestic Product Q2 2010 Link Superfast Broadband For All Link

The Scottish Corporate Sector Statistics 2010 were published in October 2010. The statistics provide information about the number of enterprises operating in Scotland by industry, company size etc. In the Outer Hebrides as highlighted in the chart below the largest number of enterprises are in the primary industries (270). The largest number of employees (1630) are in the Wholesale, retail and repairs enterprises as highlighted in the chart below.

Number of Registered Enterprises in Registered enterprises in Outer Hebrides Primary Industries Outer Hebrides March 2010 Total Employment March 2010 Primary Industries Manufacturing Manufacturing Construction Construction

Wholesale, retail and Wholesale, retail and repairs repairs Hotels and restaurants Hotels and restaurants

Transport, storage and Transport, storage and communication communication Financial intermediation2 Financial intermediation2 Business activities, real Business activities, real estate, renting estate, renting Education, Health and Education, Health and Social Work Social Work Other community, social Other community, social and personal services and personal services Page 6 Built Environment

Housing Statistics for Scotland 2010 Link Housing Scotland Bill Link Energy Efficiency Action Plan Link L A Housing Bulletin October 2010 Link

On November 25 2010 the Chief Statistician published the results of the Scottish House Condition Survey 2009. Local Authority figures are published on a 3 year average from 2007-09. As illustrated in the graph below the Outer Hebrides continue to have the highest level of fuel poverty (58%). The Islands have the next highest levels (44%) while the Scottish average is 28%. Of the households which are fuel poor, 86% of pensioner households are fuel poor.

Levels of extreme fuel poverty are at 31% in the Outer Hebrides, nearly four times the Scottish average (8%). Levels in Orkney are 22% while in Dumfries and Galloway and South Lanarkshire it is 15%.

The National Home Energy Rating of dwellings rates dwellings on a scale of 0 (poor) to 10 (excellent) based on the total energy costs per square metre of floor area. The SHCS shows that 30% of houses in the Outer Hebrides have a score banded 0-2 (Scottish average 3%), 65% are banded 3-6 (Scottish average 45%) and only 5% are banded 7-10 (Scottish average 52%).

Percentage Fuel Poor in Scotland 70 by Local Authority 2007-09 60 50 40 30

20 Percentage 10 -

Fife Angus Moray Stirling Falkirk Highland Inverclyde Eilean Siar Midlothian Dundee City East Ayrshire East WestLothian LothianGlasgow City Renfrewshire Orkney Islands Argyll and AberdeenshireBute South Ayrshire Aberdeen City Scottish Borders Perth and KinrossShetland Islands North Lanarkshire City of Edinburgh South Lanarkshire East Renfrewshire Clackmannanshire East Dunbartonshire West Dunbartonshire Dumfries and Galloway

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