NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016 CATASTROPHE EXPOSURE & RISK MANAGEMENT SERVICES 2 CONTENTS | NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016

CONTENTS

FORT MCMURRAY WILDFIRE...... 4

CHINA FLOODING: SUMMER 2016...... 7

JUNE 2016 EUROPEAN FLOODS...... 10

U.S. FLOOD...... 13

2016 EARTHQUAKE RETROSPECTIVE...... 15

2016 WEST PACIFIC SEASON...... 18

ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...... 21

U.S. SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORM...... 24

BIOGRAPHIES...... 27 NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016 | INTRODUCTION 3

INTRODUCTION

Natural catastrophe risk in 2016 made headlines across the globe, with flood and earthquake events leading the loss profile from an economic vantage point. From an insured loss perspective, regional extremes in weather conditions drove catastrophic outcomes. Drought across North America spurred some of the most damaging wildfires in history, with the Fort McMurray, Alberta and Gatlinburg, Tennessee events generating damages and losses far beyond the expectations of regional authorities. Persistent thunderstorms across Texas from late March to early May resulted in four massive hail events, contributing significantly to U.S. insured losses in 2016. JLT Re is proactively helping clients manage these catastrophic extremes, offering its expertise and technology to drive bespoke solutions. New analytic products for the perils of wildfire and flood were deployed during 2016, while JLT Re’s CATography Peril Impact and Claims products leverage predictive analytics to aid companies in rapidly assessing incurred loss outcomes from wildfire, convective storm, tropical cyclones, and earthquakes. Expanding capabilities in Asia Pacific are accelerating opportunities for JLT Re to deploy world-class solutions to address the insured protection gap across the region as population growth accelerates in coastal regions exposed to and flood. While the U.S. continues an unprecedented and miraculous stretch of 11 seasons since a major landfalling hurricane, JLT Re meteorologists continue to delve deeply into analytical solutions for hurricane risk assessment, as reversion to the long-term mean will eventually occur.

JLT Re catastrophe specialists, engineers and scientists have compiled a review of the major catastrophe events of 2016 along with professional opinions of leading research and trends that will advance our ongoing understanding of natural catastrophe risk. On behalf of the team responsible for this compilation, we appreciate your interest and look forward to thoughtful engagements and further advancement of catastrophic risk in 2017.

Kind regards,

Christopher Zumbrum Catastrophe Risk Management Services Officer 4 FORT MCMURRAY WILDFIRE | NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016

FORT MCMURRAY WILDFIRE

Kimberly Roberts: Vice President and Meteorologist, Denver, CO

Ushered in by abnormally hot and MODIS land surface dry conditions in Canada due to the temperature from 26 winter mega El Niño event, a wildfire April to 3 May 2016, compared to the sparked on 1 May 2016 led not only 2000-10 average for to catastrophic damage to the town of the same one-week Fort McMurray, Alberta, but also to the period. largest economic and insured loss event (Source: NASA Earth in Canadian history. Observatory) Due to El Niño, the winter preceding the fire had been characterized by below- normal snowfall and above-average temperatures in Alberta, which persisted into the spring. By 1 May temperatures were 15ºC above normal across much of Alberta while rainfall had been only half of the long-term average during the month of April. The combination of high temperatures and low precipitation was the main driver of drying out of the forest litter, which exacerbated vulnerability to wildfire. MODIS fire activity detection as of 4 May The initial fire near Fort McMurray began at 14.45, illustrating the on 1 May 2016 and is believed to have very quick spread of fire over a 24-hour time been caused by human activities rather period starting 3 May than lightning, although an investigation represented by orange to the exact cause continues. By 3 May and red dots. local weather conditions were extremely (Source: NASA Earth favorable for a rapid spread of fire. Observatory) Temperatures in Fort McMurray peaked at 32ºC (nearly double the normal high for the day), humidity was at an extreme low of 15%, and strong winds from south and southwest rapidly advanced the fire toward the populated areas of Fort McMurray on 4 May. NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016 | FORT MCMURRAY WILDFIRE 5

Pyrocumulus cloud forming over the evacuation route out of Fort McMurray.

(Source: Fort McMurray Wildfire/ Instagram)

IN TOTAL, THE FORT Damage Estimates for neighborhoods in MCMURRAY WILDFIRE Fort McMurray. CHARRED MORE THAN (Source: CatIQ and 1.43M ACRES OF LAND AND CATography) DESTROYED AT LEAST 10% OF THE CITY. While ambient weather conditions (temperature, humidity, and winds) played a large role in developing the fire, intense fires like Fort McMurray can create their own weather systems which can further intensify the fire. In extreme cases like this, a pyrocumulus cloud can develop above the heat source. These massive clouds, similar to a large thunderstorm cloud, can generate to the north of town. During this time, catastrophic. Certain neighborhoods updrafts and downdrafts of very strong fire-fighting efforts were outpaced by experienced near total loss, including winds that can spread fire at extremely the exceptional rate of spread of the fire. the Waterways, Abasand and Beacon high rates. The fire became impossible to contain Hill subdivisions, with moderate damage as strong drafts generated by the fire across much of the city. In total, the Evacuations began in earnest on 3 itself carried embers and burning debris Fort McMurray wildfire charred more May, resulting in a displacement of over far ahead of the fireline, and in some than 1.43m acres of land and destroyed 88,000 people from the city of Fort cases, across natural barriers like the at least 10% of the city. McMurray, with further evacuations Athabasca and Hangingstone Rivers. In addition to physical damage to ordered as the fire spread in the The resulting damage from the fire was nearly 2,400 residential structures, following days toward oil sands facilities >> 6 FORT MCMURRAY WILDFIRE | NATURAL CATASTRAOPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016

23 commercial/industrial structures, and 10,000+ automobiles, the fire also caused major disruption to oil sands operations losing 47m barrels in production and CAD $1.4bn in potential revenue. Many residents were displaced from their homes for up to one month and required alternate shelter and food during that time, resulting in large additional living expense claims. Rounding out the impacts were losses from business interruption, smoke and water remediation costs, and loss of rental income while repairs are ongoing.

In terms of global economic catastrophic losses in 2016, at CAD$5.3bn according to CatIQ, the Fort McMurray fire was eclipsed only by earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand, , and floods in central Europe. It was the costliest catastrophe in the history of Canada, being unique in the fact that the majority of the loss (CAD$3.98bn) is being absorbed by the insurance industry. Not only are the Canadian markets being impacted, but losses are being distributed globally in the form of reinsurance recoveries.

While Fort McMurray was the largest and most devastating wildfire complex of 2016 for the insurance industry, the late season Gatlinburg, wildfires in Tennessee destroyed over 2,500 structures with estimated losses in excess of USD$500m. To put the Gatlinburg fire into perspective, had this transpired in California it would rank as the third most damaging in state history for structures destroyed Kimberly Roberts: and fatalities. Vice President and Meteorologist, Denver, CO

Please see page 29 for Kimberly’s biography NATURAL CATASTRAOPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016 | FLOODING: SUMMER 2016 7

CHINA FLOODING: SUMMER 2016

Apoorv Dabral: Qingyao Yu: Jessica Turturro: Head of Catastrophe Catastrophe Analyst, Assistant Vice President, Modelling, APAC, Singapore Singapore New York, NY

Serious flooding on Lian Road in the Jiujiang District of Jiangxi, China on 19 June 2016.

(Source: humphery / Shutterstock.com)

OVERVIEW those which led to the devastating RAINFALL floods in 1998. Over 31million people From mid-June to early July 2016, heavy were affected by the flooding, including Known as 'plum rain season', June to rains impacted the basin of the Yangtze 164 fatalities and 26 missing persons. July is the typical rainy season of the River, particularly the midstream and The floods also had a serious agricultural mid to downstream basin of the Yangtze downstream provinces of Hubei, Anhui, impact. Of areas sown with crops,2.7m River. In 2016, rainfall which occurred Hunan, and Guizhou. Until 8 July, hectares were affected 673.6k of those during the 'plum rain season' was much excessive rainfall led to the economic being totally destroyed. Initial estimates heavier in both intensity and duration, loss of over RMB67.8bn across 11 show the insurance loss just in the Hubei and resulted in severe flood, landslide, affected provinces. Favorable flooding province could reach up to RMB65.3m, and debris flow. conditions are being attributed to the according to Sinoins.com. early 2016 strong El Niño, similar to >> 8 CHINA FLOODING: SUMMER 2016 | NATURAL CATASTRAOPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016

30-day rainfall total across China ending 14 July Soil moisture, 0-10 centimeters from soil surface 2016 (shaded in millimeters)

(Source: China Meteorological Administration)

The map above shows the distribution AFFECTED AREA AND Hubei provinces was RMB653m, among of the accumulated rainfall from 15 June LOSSES which motor (241m) and agriculture (9m) to 14 July 2016. Rainfall over nearly 500 loss are the top two loss drivers. millimeters was observed along the mid- The losses caused by these floods Cumulative rainfall through 11 July to downstream basins of the Yangtze have been reported by the Ministry of 2016 already approached the rainfall of River, 100-200% more than the multi- Civil Affairs of the People’s Republic of the entire 'plum rain season' in 1998. year average. China. As of 11 July, reported property However the losses, in terms of crop insurance loss in Anhui province was affected area, are smaller than in 1998. ... IT WAS FOUND THAT over RMB300m, with settled loss over This is likely due to the construction of RAINFALL DURING THE RMB70m, among which agriculture, water conservancies and development motor and business property insurance FIRST FOUR DAYS OF JULY of flood fighting efforts. counted for the most. Reported loss in 2016 ACCOUNTED FOR APPROXIMATELY 70% OF THE TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THE Losses due to 2016 floods (numbers are based on estimates as of 8 July). WHOLE MONTH. Province Crop Affected Area Crop Total Loss Ecomomic Loss (103 ha) (103 ha) (billion RMB) Based on the daily rainfall data Hubei 1323.3 371.7 32.56 available from the China Meteorological Anhui 666.2 213.4 21.90 Administration, it was found that rainfall Hunan 382.7 67.1 10.04 during the first four days of July 2016 accounted for approximately 70% of Jiangsu 253.2 18.2 4.01 the total rainfall during the whole month. Jianxi 101.8 32.6 2.20 These heavy rains resulted in significant Guizhou 34.0 6.6 5.20 water logging, excessive soil moisture, Chongquing 23.1 3.7 0.69 and subsequent floods. Soil moisture Sichuan 11.8 2.5 0.31 plots indicate the excess moisture in the soil by providing the information on areas Henan 9.6 2.6 0.81 that are submerged by surface run-off or Yunnan 9.0 1.1 0.33 ponding water. The soil moisture maps Guangxi 2.5 0.4 0.08 highlight the excessive soil moisture TOTAL 2707.3 675.5 69.20 profiles in the most heavily impacted (Source: Ministry of Civil Affairs of PRC) provinces of Hunan, Hubei and Anhui. NATURAL CATASTRAOPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016 | CHINA FLOODING: SUMMER 2016 9

IMPLICATIONS FOR Yangtze River during June and July increased 176% in the last five years AGRICULTURE mainly affects the sowing and/or and a staggering 5,040% in the last 10 growth of rice and cotton, this year’s years, according to Sinions.com. Given Within the affected areas of the 2016 flooding destroyed lands cultivating rice, the drastic increase in the agricultural floods, the main crop types sown are vegetables, peanuts, cotton and tea, insurance penetration in China over rice, cotton, and rapeseed. Although as well as livestock. Total agriculture past decade, it is critical for the industry flood and water logging along the insurance premium in China has to monitor major events impacting the agricultural sector.

Statistical comparison of 2016 flooding through 8 July compared with 1998 Rice yield and crop calendar for China. floods.

Year 1998 Year 2016 (as of 11 July)

Cumulative rainfall (June-July) 500 mm 494 mm

Cumulative rainfall (June-July) +77.9% +75.8% compare to multi-year average

Crop Affected Area (103 ha) 10,807 2,707.3

Crop Total Failure (103 ha) 2,515 675.5

Economical loss* (billion RMB) 145.1 69.2

(Source: Ministry of Civil Affairs of PRC) (Source: FAS/USDA)

Apoorv Dabral: Qingyao Yu: Jessica Turturro: Head of Catastrophe Modelling, Catastrophe Analyst, Singapore Assistant Vice President, APAC, Singapore New York, NY

Please see page 27 for Apoorv’s Please see page 30 for Please see page 30 for Jessica’s biography Qingyao’s biography biography 10 JUNE 2016 EUROPEAN FLOODS | NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016

JUNE 2016 EUROPEAN FLOODS

Jessica Turturro: Assistant Vice President, New York, NY

OVERVIEW Several days of heavy rainfall in late May into early June brought major flooding to Central Western Europe, most notably Germany and France. However, Belgium and Romania were also impacted. High water and flooding occurred along the banks of tributaries of the Rhine, Danube, and Seine. At least 20 people have died, and in France alone, over 20,000 were evacuated and more than 25,000 were left without electricity.

The overall loss from these storms in Europe, including hailstorms in the Netherlands, totaled $6.1bn of which $3bn was insured. Losses in Germany alone accounted for US$2.8bn of overall losses and US$1.3bn of insured losses Flooded streets of Simbach am Inn, a city in the Rottal-Inn district of Germany. (Source: NY Times) according to Munich Re.

GERMANY specifically 500 homes and 200 week, according to meteorologists at Unlike the floods in 2002 and 2013 bridges. European weather agencies. where major rivers overflowed, it was Baden-Wurttemberg was also impacted the smaller rivers that rose within hours by the severe rain conditions. The SOUTHERN GERMANY this past summer. Most of the damage town of Braunsbach experienced flash EXPERIENCED AT LEAST occurred in Bavaria, particularly the flooding and mudslides which buried 400% OF ITS AVERAGE Rottal-Inn district where a state of several homes and vehicles and caused emergency was declared. The town of two bridges to fall. Levels of water and RAINFALL OVER THE Simbach am Inn was hardest hit where debris were reported as high as 7-10 WEEK, ACCORDING TO flood depths of up to 9.8 feet were feet in the streets. recorded. Harsh flow conditions and METEOROLOGISTS AT debris carried by the river led to severe Southern Germany experienced at least EUROPEAN WEATHER 400% of its average rainfall over the building damage and bridge collapse, AGENCIES. NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016 | JUNE 2016 EUROPEAN FLOODS 11

FRANCE Flooding occurred primarily in the central and northeast regions of France, primarily in the Ile-de-France region and especially the areas surrounding the Seine. May 2016 saw record rainfall for Paris, the most ever for the month since 1873. The Seine rose to its highest level since 1982 at 21.3 feet and caused transportation disruptions and closures of landmarks like the Louvre museum, Musée d’Orsay, and the Grand Palais. Tens of thousands of acres of agricultural land were destroyed in the Centre-Val de Loire region and the Paris basin, resulting in loss of livestock and produce.

MAY 2016 SAW RECORD RAINFALL FOR PARIS, THE MOST EVER FOR THE MONTH Total rainfall measured in millimeters spanning 22 May to 6 June 2016. (Source: NASA) SINCE 1873. THE SEINE ROSE TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL WHAT IS FUELING that the probability of an extreme INCREASED INCIDENTS OF precipitation event has increased by SINCE 1982 AT 21.3 FEET AND about 80% for the Seine River Basin CAUSED TRANSPORTATION FLOODING? and 90% for the Loire River Basin. The DISRUPTIONS AND The extreme rainfall that led to the study of extreme weather attribution CLOSURES OF LANDMARKS extensive flooding was caused by a to a changing climate is an active area of research at universities and LIKE THE LOUVRE MUSEUM, blocking pattern of the jet stream known as the ‘omega block’. The jet stream governments. Of all natural catastrophe MUSÉE D’ORSAY AND THE gets ‘blocked’ from progressing west perils, flooding has one of the strongest GRAND PALAIS. to east when a large high-pressure links to changes in global temperatures ridge is surrounded by troughs of low as warming fuels higher moisture levels in the atmosphere. The French Government declared a pressure, creating persistent weather conditions for several days or weeks. state of ‘natural catastrophe’ for 782 French President François Hollande In this case, warm moist air was pulled communes, meaning that all residents shares this view of extreme weather northward from the Mediterranean Sea with insurance would receive eligible attribution to changing climate and to feed the stalled low pressure system payouts automatically. has expressed the need for action on which subsequently fuelled strong a global level. He later stated that his thunderstorms. Areas of Northern France were said to Government would declare a state of have exceeded six full weeks of rain in It is notable that in recent years areas of disaster for affected areas, enabling a 24-hour period and some areas in Western Europe, particularly in Germany residents and businesses to receive Central France received up to 16 inches and France, have seen a marked insurance compensation. Likewise, of rain over the 10-day period ending increase in heavy rainfall events leading Bavaria’s Minister of the Interior Joachim on 5 June, roughly 60% of the average to severe flooding. Compared to pre- Hermann announced financial aid for annual precipitation. industrial conditions, studies indicate those affected in the most devastated areas. >> 12 JUNE 2016 EUROPEAN FLOODS | NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016

During the flood on Quai de Passy1910. (Source: BBC) THE FLOOD EVENT IN PARIS THIS YEAR HAS BEEN COMPARED TO THE FLOODS OF 1910, WHEN THE SEINE ROSE 28.3 FEET AND CAUSED MUCH DAMAGE TO THE CITY AND SURROUNDING AREA.

1910 GREAT FLOOD OF but rather the water pushing upwards slow rising of the water, makeshift levees PARIS from the sewers and subway tunnels, were able to be built and there were permeating the soil and seeping no resulting fatalities. Estimates of the The flood event in Paris this year has into basements. Neighboring towns, damage reached some 400m francs at been compared to the floods of 1910, however, experienced flooding from the the time, or $1.5bn today, and it is said when the Seine rose 28.3 feet and banks themselves. that the water took approximately 35 caused much damage to the city and days to dissipate. surrounding area. The flooding in Paris The flooding occurred over the course was not a result of overflowing rivers of about 10 days but because of the

Postcard of the floods in Paris in 1910. (Source: Amoret Tanner / Alamy Stock Photo)

Jessica Turturro: Assistant Vice President, New York, NY

Please see page 30 for Jessica’s biography NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016 | U.S. FLOOD 13

U.S. FLOOD

Josh Darr: Dr Trevor Qi: Senior Vice President and Flood Specialist, Lead Meteorologist, Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL

From an economic loss viewpoint, Rainfall associated the peril driving the most meaningful with six separate billion dollar flood contribution to losses over the past losses during the year is flooding. As highlighted in the U.S. Government infographic opposite from the National 2016 fiscal year. Weather Service, the 2016 fiscal year (Source: NOAA) for the U.S. Government (1 October - 30 September) featured six separate billion dollar flood disasters. The fourth quarter of 2016 continued the trend as excessive inland rainfall associated with Hurricane Matthew is projected to drive losses in excess of $1.5bn with over two dozen fatalities. Matthew’s flooding, from an economic/humanitarian impact, 48-hour period; the monthly rainfall total JLT Re’s professional hydrologist has looks to rival the South Carolina floods of broke the prior record of 23.73 inches analyzed this event due to the wide- late 2015 in association with Hurricane in May 1907. Moreover, 20 inches in a ranging impacts. Based on a five-by-five Joaquin. With Matthew registering 48-hour period registered well in excess meter resolution Digital Elevation Model the fifth separate billion dollar flooding of a 500-year period recurrence interval (DEM) resolving individual buildings and disaster of the 2016 calendar year, this for this region and in isolated locales highways, JLT Re performed a four-day is more than double the number of billion well in excess of the 1,000-year return rainfall runoff simulation. The map (top, dollar flood events in any year since period. The impacts were widespread page 14) represents the inundation 1980. $15.5bn in loss for calendar year and historic, with river levels cresting at extents in blue as well as the spatially 2016 ranks second since 1980, only record heights, including the Amite River varied flood depth (in feet), facilitating trailing 1993 when the great Midwest at Denham Springs cresting at 46.2 feet, an analysis of the flood severity, Mississippi River flood registered $35bn over five feet higher than the prior record exposures and risk and vulnerability in loss, according to NOAA. in April 1983. assessment. Verification of multiple areas of inundation represented in yellow By far the largest flood loss driver dots/numbers were benchmarked of 2016 was the Louisiana flood in THE AMITE RIVER AT DENHAM against field photos taken by Civil Air August. With NOAA estimating $10bn SPRINGS CRESTED AT Patrol. Validation of the flood map with in economic loss, the meteorological the FEMA hazard GIS layer (light red), statistics from this event were nothing 46.2 FEET, OVER FIVE FEET published one month after the event, short of staggering. Baton Rouge, HIGHER THAN THE PRIOR also found strong convergence in the LA registered 26.97 inches of rain in RECORD IN APRIL 1983. analysis of flood extent and severity. August, with over 20 inches falling in a 14 U.S. FLOOD | NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016

JLT Re flood recreation for the August 2016 Baton Rouge, LA flood event.

(Source: JLT Re)

What caused 2016 to feature more than double the prior since the late 1950s. Much of the Central/Eastern U.S. has record number of billion dollar flood events in the U.S.? In the seen a marked increase in the rainfall totals associated with majority of these historic flood events, the level of precipitable the heaviest rain events. Specifically in 2016, record warmth water in the atmosphere reached all-time record levels for the after the winter El Niño primed the atmosphere to hold more locales experiencing the flooding. Precipitable water measures moisture. As a rule of thumb, for every degree of additional how much rain would fall if all moisture was extracted from warmth in the atmosphere, increased evaporation allows the atmosphere over a specific location. The ability for the the atmosphere to hold an extra 6% of water vapor. The atmosphere to produce excessive rainfall in short durations confluence of exceptional warmth and elevated moisture levels is becoming more common. The map below highlights the led to multiple extreme flood events. percentage increase in rainfall for the heaviest 1% of all days

Percentage increase in the amount of precipitation falling in the top 1% of all days since 1958. Josh Darr: Senior Vice President and Lead Meteorologist, Chicago, IL

Please see page 28 for Josh’s biography

Dr Trevor Qi: Flood Specialist, Philadelphia, PA

Please see page 28 for Trevor’s biography (Source: National Climate Assessment) NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016 | 2016 EARTHQUAKE RETROSPECTIVE 15

2016 EARTHQUAKE RETROSPECTIVE

Taronne Tabucchi: Assistant Vice President and Earthquake Risk Specialist, San Francisco, CA

Global earthquake events individually Peak ground acceleration measurements from Mw7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand Earthquake, note the higher had relatively small impacts on the ground accelerations missing Wellington and Christchurch cities and the epicenter (yellow star) was located between Christchurch and Kaikoura. (Source: GNS/GeoNet) insurance industry in 2016. Reported fatalities during the year numbered fewer than 1,200, significantly smaller than the 9,000+ lives lost in 2015 from earthquakes. Five countries familiar with earthquakes – Ecuador, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, and Taiwan – were subjected to intense ground shaking and localized damage in 2016. Ecuador and New Zealand recorded the largest magnitude earthquakes of the year (Mw 7.8), both of which produced local tsunami. Induced seismicity and its ties to the oil and gas industry in the U.S. quickly became a relevant topic as Oklahoma experienced moderate earthquakes on 13 February (Mw 5.1) and 3 September (Mw 5.8) that are likely linked to wastewater injection. ECUADOR AND NEW ZEALAND RECORDED THE LARGEST MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKES OF THE YEAR (MW7.8), BOTH OF WHICH

PRODUCED LOCAL TSUNAMI. a result of damage to older and/or not hundreds. Older homes and buildings Industry impacts from major properly seismically detailed buildings. in Central Italy, Southern Japan, and earthquakes were lessened in 2016 This was sadly demonstrated by the Ecuador were particularly damaged from mainly due to the nexus of population Mw6.4 Taiwan earthquake in February this year’s earthquakes. and hazard: less populated (non-urban) that resulted in one collapsed 17-story Earthquake sequences in Southern areas experienced the highest ground- apartment building complex in Tainan Japan and Central Italy highlight an on- shaking intensities. Many fatalities were City killing more than 115 and injuring going issue with potentially widespread >> 16 2016 EARTHQUAKE RETROSPECTIVE | NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016

Large building collapse in Tainan City, Taiwan following the 5 February 2016 Mw6.4 Mashiki City, Kumamoto, Japan after 15-16 April 2016 earthquakes. earthquake. Damage was attributed to poor construction and inadequate building (Source: AFP) materials. (Source: Xinhua) impacts on insurance industry losses Seismic activity from earthquakes. Timing between in Central Italy: earthquakes in damaging events in Japan was about orange occurred 24 hours (15-16 April 2016), but in since 30 October, Central Italy they were weeks apart (24 in yellow since 24 August, and in blue August and 26 & 30 October 2016). from 1995-2015. This year’s earthquake sequences add Size of the circle more data to the complex Canterbury, indicates earthquake magnitude New Zealand 2010-11 sequence, Mw2.5-4.9, with which spanned a total of 16 months. stars indicating The scientific community has been earthquakes of M 5.0+. studying the hazard implications, but w the insurance industry could have the (Source: INGV) opportunity in the future to re-examine event occurrence definitions for regions prone to damaging earthquake sequences in relatively short periods of time.

TIMING BETWEEN DAMAGING EVENTS IN JAPAN WAS ABOUT 24 HOURS (15-16 APRIL 2016), BUT IN CENTRAL ITALY THEY WERE WEEKS APART (24 AUGUST AND 26 & 30 OCTOBER 2016). NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016 | 2016 EARTHQUAKE RETROSPECTIVE 17

OKLAHOMA OVERTAKES CALIFORNIA FOR MOST EARTHQUAKES Increases in the seismic rate in the Central and Eastern U.S., most starkly observed in Oklahoma, are being linked to induced earthquakes during the last seven years. Some areas have experienced a ten-fold increase in earthquakes, with scientific studies attributing the increased seismicity to wastewater injection in deep injection disposal wells at a number of locations. Oil and gas extraction by a fracking process produces large volumes of waste water and is a main contributor to the increase in deep injection wells used for its disposal. Studies linking seismic activity to wastewater disposal are Explanation of tsunami generated from earthquakes like the 2011 M9.0 Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. relatively new and the U.S. Geological (Source: Reuters) Survey has produced a one-year forecast in 2016 to quantify seismic hazard for the Central and Eastern U.S. from induced and natural seismicity. Impacts on seismic risk are still not fully known there is a sudden slip between the and under active investigation, with a role plates (i.e., large earthquake), there for the insurance industry to play in its is a displacement of the ocean floor, development. and a tsunami is generated. Larger magnitude events (Mw7.5+) are needed WHAT EARTHQUAKES CAN to produce destructive tsunami, as a GENERATE TSUNAMI? larger magnitude infers a large release of energy and also a greater sea floor Tsunami can be generated by multiple displacement leading to bigger waves. sources, but the most commonly known There are significant subduction zones are earthquakes. There is a specific around the Ring of Fire that circles the Taronne Tabucchi: type of plate boundary at lithosphere Pacific Ocean, including offshore Japan, Assistant Vice President and (Earth’s crust and upper mantle) that New Zealand, Chile, and Western North Earthquake Risk Specialist, forms subduction zones and generates America, where some of the largest San Francisco, CA most tsunami. The subduction term earthquakes in history have been explains the movement of the plates’ recorded. Please see page 29 for collision as the oceanic plate is pulled Taronne’s biography under the continental plate. When 18 2016 WEST PACIFIC TYPHOON SEASON | NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016

2016 WEST PACIFIC TYPHOON SEASON EXPOSING THE PROTECTION GAP

Apoorv Dabral: Head of Catastrophe Modelling, APAC, Singapore

The 2016 typhoon season in the West Time line and tracks of the tropical storms and typhoons in West Pacific basin. Pacific started benignly enough, and it was not until 3 July that the basin had its first named storm – Nepartak. Nepartak formed after a tropical storm drought of 200 consecutive days, the longest stretch without a single tropical storm in the West Pacific Basin and a day longer than the former stretch from 1997 to 98 which followed a mega El Niño event. This late start to the season is not unusual in years when a strong to mega El Niño transitions into a weak-to- moderate La Niña. Despite the delayed start, 2016 has remarkably produced 26 tropical storms, 13 typhoons and five intense typhoons in the West Pacific Basin, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). This level of typhoon activity is only slightly lower than average.

Super Typhoon Nepartak was the first tropical storm to form in the West Pacific Basin and the second most intense measured in terms of . Only once before did the first storm of the season intensify to Category 5. Nepartak caused substantial loss and nearly 90 fatalities in Taiwan and China. The storm made landfall as a Category 4 in Taiwan and brought significant rainfall, with mountainous regions receiving more than 500 millimeters. After passing the mountainous terrain, (Source: JMA) NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016 | 2016 WEST PACIFIC TYPHOON SEASON 19

the storm downgraded very quickly into of the island, also the strongest since a Category 1, making a second landfall Maemi. The southern port cities of As expected, the economic in Shishi, Fujian. Though a weakened Busan and Ulsan were impacted losses from several of these storm at this point, it brought heavy by high sustained winds of up to 80 events were significant; precipitation and severe flooding to miles per hour. The typhoon caused some areas. Economic losses were significant flooding in both cities and led however, given the protection estimated at $1.5bn but insured losses to the closure of industrial plants in the gap in Asia, these economic were minimal and primarily limited to area. Chaba continued on to hit Japan losses did not translate auto lines. as an extra tropical storm, fortunately into major insured losses. without causing any significant losses. Additionally, none of the Super Typhoon Meranti formed The insured losses for this event were severe typhoons impacted in September and impacted the estimated between $100m and $150m , Taiwan, and China. It was in South Korea, primarily from property any major city or region one of the strongest typhoons ever and auto classes with a smaller of high insured exposure. recorded with a minimum pressure contribution from agriculture. Looking forward, innovations of 890hPa, making it the strongest such as the parametric typhoon since Super Typhoon Megi Super Typhoon Haima made landfall product for the Guangdong (2010) which attained a minimum as a Category 4 in Northeastern Luzon, province may become more pressure of 885hPa. It held the highest Philippines just three days after the recorded sustained wind speed since region had been hit by Category 3 common, thereby helping Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013) at 190 Typhoon Sakira, significantly increasing to reduce this protection miles per hour. Despite this, damage the risk due to the cumulated effect gap and provide much and losses were minimal as the storm of these two storms. Since the region needed financial resources passed over sparsely populated areas is not heavily exposed, the impact for rebuilding after a major like the Island of Ibayat. on losses was not significant. Haima catastrophic event. travelled further and made landfall as While Meranti did not make landfall in a Category 1 near the city of Shanwei, Taiwan, it did create high wind speeds Guangdong, about 100 kilometers east and precipitation across the country of Hong Kong. While the impact in Hong Typhoon Nock-Ten was one of the due to its enormous wind field. Meranti Kong and Guangdong was limited, the strongest tropical cyclones observed made landfall in Xiamen City (Fujian storms did create some agricultural and so late in the typhoon season. There Province, China) as a Category 4, the economic losses. have been only two storms – Hester strongest in the region since 1949. This event was unique in that it triggered (1952) and Susan (1963) – in the past There was extensive damage in both a parametric disaster insurance pilot to have attained this category so late the Fujian and Zhejiang provinces with developed by Swiss Re in partnership in the season and also the strongest total economic losses estimated to with local insurers, providing $350m of to have made landfall so late in the be about $2.5bn and insured losses protection to the Chinese Government season. Nock-ten is also the strongest currently estimated between $150m to against tropical cyclone and excess typhoon to have made landfall so late $200m. rainfall for seven prefectures in in the season in the Philippines. Just Guangdong, China. Unlike traditional before landfall, Nock-ten moved across Typhoon Chaba was the strongest reinsurance, the pilot’s parametric policy favorable conditions for strengthening typhoon to make landfall in South Korea did not pay based on actual losses but and underwent a since Super in 2003 rather payout was triggered by rainfall where its sustained windspeeds and brought record-high rainfall to Jeju data and tropical cyclone wind speed increased by at least 35 miles per hour Island, South Korea. According to the indices, the first of which went to the in about 24 hours. Nock-ten made its Korea Meteorological Administration, city of Shanwei. Total economic losses landfall on 25 December in the province Chaba brought sustained wind speeds from this event are expected to be of Catanduanes as a Category 4 of up to 110 miles per hour in parts $2bn. >> 20 2016 WEST PACIFIC TYPHOON SEASON | NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016

typhoon. The typhoon further weakened modest economic loss, China’s storms occur, these reefs are hit by a while impacting the populated provinces shores are at increasingly high risk great deal of wave energy. of Batangas and Cavite, south of due to its booming coastal population. . There were no estimates of the Economic growth in China has driven Studies have shown that reefs greatly damage while this report was compiled, its inhabitants from the country’s reduce wave energy and subsequently but there is expected to be high interior farmland to the coast. While lessen the impact on nearby shorelines. economic damage with lower insured the country’s overall population has Rising sea levels, accompanied by losses since the typhoon did not directly remained steady, the coastal population typhoons, hamper the reef system's impacted the metro Manila region, has grown from 270m to 590m between natural ability to make adjustments post which has the heaviest concentration of 1978 and 2010. Additionally, China event, in turn weakening structures insured exposure. has been building artificial islands built on top of them. This combination in the on top of of concentrated coastal exposure, GROWING POPULATION existing reefs. Erecting adequately continued industrialization of artificial DENSITY IN COASTAL CHINA built structures on fragile reefs is an islands, and weakened wave barriers engineering challenge but a more during an active typhoon season may While the 2016 typhoons generally fundamental problem is that when create conditions ripe for significant loss. hit less populated areas and created

Rapid coastal growth along the China coastline increases the risk profile of catastrophic loss to typhoon events.

(Source: shutterstock)

Apoorv Dabral: Head of Catastrophe Modelling, APAC, Singapore

Please see page 27 for Apoorv’s biography NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016 | SEASON 21

ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

Brian Bastian: Assistant Vice President and Meteorologist, Philadelphia, PA

The Atlantic Basin hasn’t had a more active or costly hurricane season since 2012, with a total of 15 named storms – seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. Five of those named storms had a direct impact on the U.S., including three tropical storms (Bonnie, Colin, and Julia) and two hurricanes (Hermine and Matthew). Predictions from a variety of seasonal forecasts were on par with the result of the season, accurately predicting that a combination of factors, including weak vertical wind shear and above-average sea surface temperatures, would contribute to a more active season.

Tracks of the 15 named storms recorded in the 2016 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season. PUSHING THE BOUNDARIES (Source: National Hurricane Center) OF TIME AND GEOGRAPHY The above-average Atlantic Basin hurricane to form in the Atlantic during was also the latest in any calendar hurricane activity resulted in a season the month. Alex made landfall as a year on record in the Atlantic Basin, that pushed the boundaries of the tropical storm on the island of Terceira in the strongest that late in the year and hurricane season in both time and the Central Azores and, geographically the farthest south on record in Central geography. speaking, was only the second hurricane America. Finally, Otto was only the fifth The 2016 season got off to a quick ever to form in a zone of the Atlantic tropical cyclone to have crossed from start with the formation of Hurricane east of 30°W longitude and north of 30° the Atlantic to the Eastern Pacific basin Alex in the Northeastern Atlantic on 14 latitude. intact and the first to have done so in 20 January, nearly five months before the years. The 2016 season also ended with traditional 1 June season start date. a rare occurrence: Hurricane Otto Between the formation of Alex and Otto Alex’s formation made it the first tropical became the latest hurricane on record to bookend the 2016 season, 318 days or subtropical storm to form in January to form in the , hitting passed. The only year to come close since 1978, only the fourth known storm parts of and on to such a prolonged season was 1938 to form in January since records began Thanksgiving before moving into the when 312 had passed between the first in 1851, and only the second known eastern Pacific Ocean. Otto’s landfall and last storms. >> 22 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON | NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016

ONE RECORD ENDS, ANOTHER CONTINUES Florida’s record landfalling hurricane 'drought' ended in 2016 with the landfall of Category 1 Hermine on 2 September, nearly 11 years (3,966 days) after ’s landfall in 2005. Hermine struck just east of St Marks Florida along the state’s relatively unpopulated Northeast Gulf Coast resulting in nominal losses to the insurance industry. The formation of Hermine also ended a record streak of 1,080 days since a hurricane Most recent hurricane forecasts from each of the forecasting centers. Limits for the activity levels correspond to those defined by NOAA. Many of the forecasting centers predicted above-average activity. developed or passed through the Gulf (Source: The Barcelona Supercomputing Center & Colorado State University) of Mexico, dating back to Ingrid in September 2013. While the record hurricane drought for as a Category 1 hurricane just north 29 MAJOR HURRICANES the Sunshine State ended, the record of Charleston, South Carolina. While major U.S. landfalling hurricane drought Matthew failed to make landfall as a HAVE BEEN RECORDED IN continues, representing the longest major hurricane, and likely billions of THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE period between major hurricane landfalls dollars in property damage were saved (Category 3 or higher) going back to by its winds staying just offshore, the 2005, YET NOT ONE HAS 1851. While Hurricane Matthew came far larger influence from Matthew was BROUGHT CATEGORY 3 close this season, its remarkable path storm surge inundation of up to nine WINDS ASHORE IN THE U.S. kept the core of peak Category 3 feet in some areas, and anomalously winds around the eyewall just offshore heavy precipitation which produced (roughly 30 miles) the east coast of 24-hour rainfall totals in excess of 12 Florida. Matthew officially made landfall inches with catastrophic flooding in

Beach road in the city of St Augustine, FL eroded by the storm surge of Hurricane Matthew. North Carolina. Preliminary economic damage estimates in the U.S. as a result of Matthew have been projected around $4bn to $6bn, according to CoreLogic.

Since Wilma in 2005, 29 major hurricanes have been recorded in the Atlantic Basin, yet not one has brought Category 3 winds ashore in the U.S. While this record remains impressive, the scientific community continues to debate its significance, realizing that two large landfalling hurricanes with lower than Category 3 winds have impacted the U.S. over the 11-year period. Hurricanes Sandy and Ike were the nation’s second and fourth most costly hurricanes on record, respectively, when (Source: NBC News) adjusting losses for inflation. NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016 | ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON 23

Timeline of North Atlantic ocean heat content reflective of the cyclical nature of the Atlantic Multidecadal ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL Oscillation.North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content OSCILLATION (AMO) 1.40 1.20 The AMO is an ongoing, natural series of 1.00 long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean, 0.80 with cool and warm phases that may 0.60 last for 20-40 years at a time. Since 0.40 the mid-1990s, the Atlantic Basin has 0.20 been in a warm phase; however, there - are some indications that the current (0.20) warm phase may possibly transition (0.40) into a cooler regime in the latter part of this decade. What does this mean for (0.60) hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin? (0.80) 5 7 3 7 9 5 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 9 5 1 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 75 81 87 93 5 7 8 5 7 8 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 During warm phases of the AMO, the 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 1 1 1 9 1 1 9 1 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 number of tropical storms that mature (Source:Source: NOAA/ESRL) NOAA/ESRL into major hurricanes is much greater than during cool phases, at least twice as many. While historically the Huge hurricane approaching Florida in America. (Source: NASA) AMO influences the number of major hurricanes, the frequency of weaker hurricanes and tropical storms is not as well correlated.

Brian Bastian: Assistant Vice President and Meteorologist, Philadelphia, PA

Please see page 27 for Brian’s biography 24 U.S. SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORM | NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016

U.S. SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORM

Josh Darr: Senior Vice President and Lead Meteorologist, Chicago, IL

A full spectrum of extremes by sub-peril and region characterized the severe convective storm activity for 2016. From a hail standpoint, the headline of the year was the six-week stretch in Texas where billions of incurred loss was reported. Conversely, tornado activity was exceptionally low and pushing near record low levels. 2016 also featured several important research articles which help to inform the predictability of severe weather outbreaks, potentially weeks in advance, along with an analysis of the changing trends of convective storm activity for the U.S. In particular, research points to the potential elongation of the convective storm season due to a confluence of factors.

TEXAS HAIL The main storyline for U.S. severe convective storm loss in 2016 was the High-resolution hail swath data (for the 12 April 2016 event where 3-4.5 inch hail was seen within city limits. persistent and severe hail events across (Source: , San Antonio, TX) Texas from late March through early May. As noted in a JLT Re publication were estimated at $5.5bn (Insurance of Texas: 12 April, San Antonio ($2bn); entitled “ENSO Impacts on Spring Council of Texas), eclipsing the annual 23 March, Plano ($700m); 16 March, Ft Severe Weather in the U.S.” issued hail/wind total loss of any other full Worth ($600m); 11 April, Wiley ($300m). early in 2016, West and Central Texas year from 2009 to 2015. 2008’s full- featured increased prospects of severe year wind/hail losses in Texas were THE $2BN SAN ANTONIO 12 convective storm activity coming out $5.7bn, just above the first half 2016 APRIL EVENT GENERATED of the mega El Niño event of the prior incurred loss total. Over 60% of the winter, yet the season’s activity was THE HIGHEST HAIL LOSS IN 2016 loss was seen across four major unprecedented for the Lone Star state. STATE HISTORY FROM ANY events, and all ranked in the Top 20 of Texas hail/wind losses in the first two historical property cat losses in Texas SINGLE CONVECTIVE STORM quarters of 2016 (auto and property) as highlighted by the Insurance Council EVENT. NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016 | U.S. SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORM 25

The $2bn San Antonio 12 April event Inflation/trend adjusted annual tornado activity and percentile ranks dating back to 1954. generated the highest hail loss in state history from any single convective storm event. This loss value is the fifth highest incurred loss of any cat event for Texas in history, behind 2008 ($13bn), 2001 ($4.7bn), 2005 ($3.4bn), and 1961 ($2.5bn).

2016 TORNADO ACTIVITY RIVALING LOWEST ON RECORD Hail losses far outpaced loss from tornado; tornado activity is expected to end 2016 near record lows when compensating for trends in tornado reports (designated as inflation adjusted) with records dating back to the 1950s. (Source: NOAA/SPC) Property Claims Services estimated $8.5bn in national severe storm losses through June 2016, while total national losses in the first six months of 2016 tallied to $11bn. Southeastern U.S. drought severity for week of 22 November 2016 was indicative of conditions not AS SEEN IN THE CHART conducive for autumn severe thunderstorm activity. FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER, THE TORNADO TOTAL OF 830 ON 1 DECEMBER 2016 IS BELOW ANY OTHER YEAR DATING BACK TO 1954. As seen in the chart from the Storm Prediction Center, the tornado total of 830 on 1 December 2016 is below any other year dating back to 1954. The lowest number of inflation-adjusted tornadoes on record continues a trend of below-normal tornado activity each year since the historically active 2011 season with nearly 1,900 tornadoes. Tornado activity is best represented as de-trended over the time series as the combination of more advanced technology, larger population centers and storm chasers has introduced non-physical trends into the dataset since the 1950s. (Source: National Drought Survey) 26 U.S. SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORM | NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016

DOES ARCTIC SEA ICE INFLUENCE AUTUMN STORM ACTIVITY? Several renowned severe storm specialists are investigating the role of record-low 2016 Arctic Sea ice on autumn jet stream activity. October and November 2016 featured record slow ice growth. Unprecedented low Arctic ice extent resulted in large expanses of ice-free ocean to feed warmth into the atmosphere. Researchers are investigating the potential link of low ice growth to shifts in the position and amplitude of the jet stream north during the autumn months of October and November.

CAN HAIL AND TORNADO A powerful tornado-warned? supercell thunderstorm rolls across the Texas landscape producing massive OUTBREAKS BE PREDICTED amounts of hail and flooding. (Source: Tomislav Stefanac / Alamy Stock Photo) WEEKS IN ADVANCE?

Severe storm specialists Dr Vittorio Record low sea ice Gensini, professor at the College of extent potentially shifts Dupage, and Northern Illinois University jet stream north in autumn and potentially graduate student Alan Marinaro suppresses severe published research in 2016 discussing storm activity. the ability to predict above or below (Source: National Ice normal periods of convective storm and Snow Data Center) activity two to three weeks in advance. Using a measure of jet stream activity called global angular momentum, Gensini and Marinaro discovered a higher likelihood of severe storm activity when the jet stream transitions from a strong west-to-east configuration to an amplified wave pattern in a north- to-south configuration. The transition to a wavier jet stream position can be predicted several weeks in advance as the atmosphere loses momentum. As Josh Darr: an example, the change from a strong Senior Vice President and Lead to wavy jet stream transition transpired Meteorologist, Chicago, IL during the spring of 2011, resulting in the highest spring severe convective storm Please see page 28 for Josh’s activity and incurred loss in U.S. history. biography NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016 | BIOGRAPHIES 27

BIOGRAPHIES

Brian Bastian Assistant Vice President and Meteorologist JLT Re, Philadelphia, PA

Brian is an Assistant Vice President and Meteorologist in North for new geospatial solutions at Vencore, Inc., a contractor America for JLT Re, focusing on catastrophe exposure and risk in the U.S. Intelligence community supporting many three- management. letter agencies in defense. His career began, however, as a Brian serves by educating the JLT Re client base on Weather Risk Management Analyst at global weather data and catastrophe model usage and output, and developing/ forecast service provider AccuWeather, Inc. deploying our exposure and data analytics platform– Brian holds a BS degree in meteorology and MS degree CATography®. In addition, he consults with clients in in Systems Engineering, both from the Pennsylvania State regards to specific catastrophe-related studies and exposure University. He is also the Founder and President of the management projects. Penn State Weather Risk Alumni Society, a member of the Prior to JLT Re, Brian served as a Modelling and Performance International Society of Catastrophe Managers (ISCM) and an Analyst where he led the product development initiatives active volunteer climate and weather educator for the non- profit, Nepris.

Apoorv Dabral Head of Catastrophe Modelling, APAC JLT Re, Singapore

Apoorv currently holds the position of Head of Catastrophe and validation in the Asia Pacific region. In his previous role Modelling, APAC in JLT Re, Singapore. In this role, he is as model developer, he had been involved in the development responsible for leading and managing the catastrophe of the Builder’s Risk model, and wind vulnerability modules for modelling-related activities of JLT Re in Asia Pacific. the tropical cyclones in the U.S., Hawaii, and the Caribbean territories. Before joining JLT Re, Apoorv worked with a leading catastrophe modelling firm as a Manager of Research and Apoorv earned his BS in Civil Engineering from Pune Modelling where his role also required him to actively lead, University, India, and MS and PhD in Civil Engineering from manage and support the research initiatives, model updates Texas Tech University. 28 BIOGRAPHIES | NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016

Josh Darr Senior Vice President and Lead Meteorologist JLT Re, Chicago, IL

Josh is Senior Vice President and Lead Meteorologist of mentorship chair in 2014. the JLT Re Analytics division, joining JLT Re in 2013. In this Prior to joining JLT Re, Josh served for six years as role, Josh helps companies with their portfolio, underwriting meteorologist and member of the corporate hedging team and claims management of natural catastrophe risk through for Chesapeake Energy while also leading a weather and technology platforms and a fundamental understanding agribusiness consulting firm, CHK Weather. Josh’s career of catastrophe models. Josh also leads JLT Re efforts on began at catastrophe modeller Risk Management Solutions, understanding the impact of weather and climate trends on where he held titles of Global Manager of Analytical Services client business processes. In addition to responsibilities at and Director of North America Climate Hazards. JLT Re, Josh is currently an Adjunct Professor at Northern Illinois University in the Department of Geography and served He received his BS degree from Cornell University and his MS as Chair of the Board of Private Sector Meteorologists in degree, both in Atmospheric Sciences, from the University at the American Meteorological Society in 2015 and the AMS Albany, New York.

Dr Trevor Qi Flood Specialist JLT Re, Philadelphia, PA

Trevor Honghai Qi, PhD., P.E., is the flood specialist (Vice floodplain mapping, and flood risk analysis projects. His President) in the Catastrophe Research and Development publications include two books, 42 journal/conference papers, Group of JLT Re based in Philadelphia. He specializes in flood and over 150 technical consulting reports. He has been invited modelling and mapping, river engineering, coastal and estuary to deliver technical speeches and short courses at universities, analysis, floodplain and dam breach analysis, catastrophe leading research institutes as well as federal agencies and state consequence and risk management analysis. He earned his governments in the United States and around the world. He PhD. from National Center for Computational Hydroscience and is a member of the ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers) Engineering (NCCHE), the University of Mississippi, in 2007. and ASFPM (Association of State Floodplain Managers). He is He has over 10 years of engineering experience working on also a registered Professional Engineer in the States of Maryland a wide variety of 1D/2D hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, and New Jersey. NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016 | BIOGRAPHIES 29

Kimberly Roberts Vice President and Meteorologist JLT Re, Denver, CO

Kimberly is a Vice President in the JLT Re Catastrophe Prior to joining JLT Re, Kimberly served as senior catastrophe Exposure & Risk Management Services division, joining in risk modeller at Risk Management Solutions for 10 years. early 2015. Beginning her career in academia, developing Kimberly graduated with a BS degree in Atmospheric and algorithms designed to predict hurricane wind structure from Oceanic Sciences from the University of Wisconsin, Madison infrared satellite data, Kimberly then transitioned to the field and a MS degree in Atmospheric Sciences from Colorado of catastrophe risk modelling, with a focus on hurricane wind State University, with an emphasis in tropical meteorology. and storm surge modelling. Kimberly has led the development She is an active member of the American Meteorological of catastrophe models and developed analytical solutions for Society, most recently serving as a member on the Board of the re(insurance) market with respect to profitability, exposure Private Sector Meteorologists and participating in the college management and resiliency. Her current role is in client services, mentor program since 2015, where she won the distinction of analytics, and research and development, most notably leading Outstanding Mentor. the development of a proprietary wildfire risk model.

Taronne Tabucchi Assistant Vice President and Earthquake Risk Specialist JLT Re, San Francisco, CA

Taronne is Assistant Vice President and Earthquake Risk a principal modeller of vulnerability components for various Specialist of the JLT Re Analytics division, joining JLT Re weather (North Atlantic, Japan, China, and Europe) and in 2015. She serves as the earthquake risk specialist and earthquake (North America, South America, Europe, Japan) vulnerability consultant in the Catastrophe Exposure and Risk perils. Also, she studied post-event effects in the field for Management team. In this role, Taronne helps companies major earthquakes and storms including: 2010 Maule, Chile with their portfolio, underwriting and claims management of Earthquake & Tsunami, 2011 Tohoku, Japan Earthquake & natural catastrophe risk through technology platforms and a Tsunami, and 2012 Super Storm Sandy. fundamental understanding of catastrophe models. Taronne holds a MS in Civil Infrastructure Systems (Civil and Prior to joining JLT Re, she spent eight years at Risk Environmental Engineering) with a minor in Risk Analysis, Management Solutions, Inc. (RMS) where she worked on Communication and Policy from Cornell University. Also, various catastrophe modelling projects as an analyst becoming she received a BS in Engineering Science (Mechanics concentration) from Smith College. 30 BIOGRAPHIES | NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016

Jessica Turturro Assistant Vice President JLT Re, New York, NY

Jessica is an Assistant Vice President and newest member Prior to JLT Re, Jessica worked at Holborn Corporation of the Catastrophe and Exposure Risk Management team, as part of the catastrophe modelling team for eight years part of the JLT Re Analytics division. She has joined to assist where she used AIR and RMS to quantify expected losses, the team in serving clients and prospects, bringing expertise analyzing exposure and concentration risk and performing regarding exposure management and modelling as well as post-modelling analytics like profitability and reinsurance cost a variety of business- and weather-related issues tied to allocation exercises. She started her career at Guy Carpenter catastrophe risk. as a catastrophe modelling analyst. Jessica received a BA degree in Mathematics with a concentration in Physics from New York University.

Qingyao Yu Catastrophe Analyst JLT Re, Singapore

Qingyao is Catastrophe Analyst in the JLT Re Analytics agriculture model and appointed the project manager in the division, joining JLT Re recently in 2016. Qingyao helps development of a weather index insurance product for corn companies with portfolio and underwriting management of farmers in China. natural catastrophe risk through technology platforms and a She received her PhD from the School of Civil and fundamental understanding of catastrophe models. Environmental Engineering of Nanyang Technological Prior to joining JLT Re, Qingyao served as Agricultural modeller University, Singapore and her BEng degree from North China in Asia Risk Centre, an affiliation of Risk Management Solutions University of Water Conservancy and Electric Power, China. (RMS), specializing in agricultural catastrophic risk modelling. Her thesis was awarded the best project at her university in She was involved in developing Asia Risk Centre’s China 2009. NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2016 | NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW 2015 31

CONCLUSION

As 2016 has come to a close, we look for early indications of what is to come in 2017. While 2016 featured mild winter weather across many areas of the globe, NOAA has released its early 2017 outlook forecast for an potential La Niña, expected to have some influence on winter conditions this year as well as jet stream patterns into the spring. La Niña traditionally favors drier, warmer winters in the Southern U.S. and wetter, cooler conditions in the Northern U.S., Australia, and the Maritime Continent region. However, forecasters believe that La Niña conditions will be weak and short-lived.

After a volatile start to the winter polar vortex featuring significant cold air intrusions into Asia and North America late in 2016, a strengthening polar vortex to start off 2017 tends to favor a moderation of cold air outbreaks for mid-winter. The Arctic oscillation, a measurement of the strength of the polar vortex, will be closely monitored for a late winter breakdown of the polar vortex which can alter late winter storm tracks. Clusters of tropical thunderstorm activity, monitored by the Madden- Julian oscillation, can also influence the frequency and severity of heavy rain events across the Pacific and Indian Ocean basins. A favorable configuration resulted in exceptional rain and snowfall in early January 2017 across the Western U.S., significantly alleviating the multi-year drought across portions of the region. With no signs of strong El Niño conditions during 2017, global temperature forecasts for 2017 look to fall below the record levels of 2016 but likely remain well above long-term averages. This will continue a trend of increased flood risk as elevated temperatures translate to higher amounts of moisture which plume out of the tropics into mid-latitude regions via atmospheric rivers.

JLT Re is dedicated to providing insight in propagating risk management techniques and communicating the latest forecasts and advancements in catastrophe risk, reinsurance solutions, and market intelligence; we look forward to continuing such efforts in 2017. Together, we deliver results. CONTACTS

Brian Bastian Kimberly Roberts Philadelphia Denver +1 215 309 4580 +1 215 300 7345 [email protected] [email protected]

Apoorv Dabral Taronne Tabucchi Singapore San Francisco +65 6411 9916 +1 415 967 7965 [email protected] [email protected]

Josh Darr Jessica Turturro Chicago New York +1 312 637 6108 +1 646 318 1129 [email protected] [email protected]

Dr Trevor Qi Qingyao Yu Philadelphia Singapore +1 215 309 4625 +65 6411 9319 [email protected] [email protected]

Chris Zumbrum Philadelphia +1 215 309 4581 [email protected]

Europe • Asia Pacific • North America • Africa • Middle East www.jltre.com

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