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Outperform (0700.HK) (Maintained) Games Recover; Advertising Slows Down and to B Business Surges

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Outperform (0700.HK) (Maintained) Games Recover; Advertising Slows Down and to B Business Surges 证券研究报告 COMPANY RESEARCH Tencent Holdings Ltd HK Stock Outperform (0700.HK) (Maintained) Games recover; Advertising slows down and To B business surges. August 16, 2019 TMT Key Data Key Financial Indicators FY FY 2018A FY 2019E FY 2020E FY 2021E August 15, 2019 Revenue (Mn/RMB) 312,694 380,907 474,413 576,845 Closing Price（HKD） 330.4 YoY (%) 31.5% 21.8% 24.5% 21.6% Total Shares (100Mn/RMB) 95.55 Non-GAAP Net Profit (Mn/RMB) 77,469 93,980 112,028 135,483 Market Cap (100Mn/RMB) 31,570 YoY (%) 19.0% 21.3% 19.2% 20.9% Gross Margin (%) 45.5% 44.1% 43.4% 42.5% Net Assets (100Mn/RMB) 4,210 Non-GAAP Net Profit Margin (%) 24.8% 24.7% 23.6% 23.5% Total Assets (100Mn /RMB) 8,169 ROE (%) 28.9% 21.4% 18.5% 17.8% EPS (RMB) 8.43 9.87 11.77 14.23 BVPS(RMB) 40.83 OCFPS (RMB) 11.18 14.90 17.48 20.29 Highlights Analyst Advertising business slightly lower than expected, Non-GAAP net profit was basically in line with ZHANG Yidong expectations. The company's total revenue of FY2019Q2 was 88.8 billion yuan, a yoy of 21%, [email protected] which was 4.67% lower than our expectation. In addition, the net income from investment- SFC：BIS749 related projects and the profit of joint ventures increased significantly in Q2, leading to 35% SAC：S0190510110012 increase of net profit to 2.41 billion, while under the Non-GAAP standard, the Profit attributable to equity holders of the Company increased yoy 19% to 23.525 billion, basically in line with our Contact expectations. The recovery of the mobile game business met our expectations and PC game business not as Venki LI good as expectation. Q2 company's game revenue was 33.9 billion yuan, yoy increase of 11.15%, [email protected] slightly lower than our expected (13.5%). Ten new mobile games were promoted, resulting in SAC：S0190118090169 income (including extraction) reaching RMB 22.2 billion, yoy increase of 26.1%, in line with expectations (25%). In PC games, the improvement of user experience of DNF contributed to the lower commercialization, making revenue decrease 9% yoy to $11.7 billion, lower than our expectation. We believe that the FY2019 H2 mobile game will keep strong tendency, and the growth rate is expected to exceed 30%. It is also expected that the PC game will recover in the second half year due to the deferral revenue of the League of Legends. Excluding interest income, FinTech and Business Services grew at a high rate. Revenue from FinTech and Business Services increased by 37.3% yoy to RMB 22.9 billion. The proportion of revenue increased by 4 percentage points to 25.7%. Excluding the interest income from reserves, the revenue of this business increased rapidly by 57% yoy, which was basically in line with expectations. Reduced demand of advertisers and increased advertising inventory in the industry led to pressure on online advertising revenue so that we lower forecasts for the second half year. FY2019 Q2, online advertising revenue increased by only 16% year-on-year to 16.4 billion yuan. Among them, social advertising revenue was 12 billion, with a yoy growth rate of less than 30%. Media advertising revenue declined to 4.4 billion yuan, year-on-year decline of 7%, worse than expected because of 1) high revenue due to last year's World Cup 2) Reduced demand of advertisers 3) Deferral of TV play .It is expected that media advertising will continue to be under pressure in the second half year, but we are optimistic about the accelerated turned-to-revenue ability of WeChat ads (including friends circle + official accounts + mini programs). Because of the advertising inventory release leading high ROI, we expect FY2019H2 social advertising growth rate to be nearly 30%. Investment proposal: adjust the target price to HK $407.4 and maintain " Outperform". We adjusted revenue from 397.5 billion / 505.8 billion to 380.9 billion /4.7448 billion in FY2019- 2020 and adjusted Non-GAAP Net Profit from 94.7 billion / 119.8 billion to 93.9 billion /112 billion in FY2019-2020. Based on the DCF model, we adjusted the target price to HK $407.4 (original target price: HK $421.3), corresponding to 35x/30x PE of FY2019/2020 under Non- GAAP standard. Maintain " Outperform " rating. Potential risks: Policy regulatory risk; slower growth of game business; less than expected advertising business; decline in ROE, gross profit margin, etc.; organizational structure adjustment does not meet expectations; risk of decline in the length of use of Tencent product users This English translation of the original Chinese version <腾讯控股（0000.HK）_游戏恢复景气，广 告放缓，To B 增长强劲_20190815> issued by Industrial Securities on 2019.08.15. is for information purpose only. In case of a discrepancy, the Chinese original will prevail. 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 证券研究报告 COMPANY RESEARCH Report Text Event: Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) released its Q2 FY2019 and full-year performance announcement on August 14: the company's total Q2 revenue in FY2019 was 88.821 billion yuan (the same below), an increase of only 21% over the same period last year and a month-on-month growth rate of 4%. About 4.67% lower than we expected and 5% lower than Bloomberg expectation. The expense rates increased month-on-month, mainly because of the promotion of new games which cause the marketing expense to increase. In addition, the net income from investment-related projects and the profit of joint ventures increased significantly in Q2. Other net income was 4 billion and investment income from joint ventures was 2.37 billion yuan (FY2018Q2 : 1.25 billion; FY2019Q1 -2.96 billion).The company's FY2019Q2 net profit was 24.1 billion, up 35% from a year earlier, and the net interest rate was 27.17% (FY2018Q2 : 24.25%). Under NonGaap standards, The company's net profit rose 19 % to 23.5 billion from a year earlier, basically meeting our expectation and 2.5% higher than Bloomberg expectation. Non-GAAP profit rate attributed to equity holders of the company was 26.5%, higher than the past 3 quarters, and EPS was 2,49 while free cash flow was 20.7 billion, a 34% growth year-on-year. The amount of monthly active accounts of Wechat was 1.133 billion in FY2019Q2, a 7% growth year-on-year. QQ's smart- terminal monthly active accounts reached 707 million, which remained roughly stable compared with the same period last year. Table 1、Differences between Industrial Securities Research Institute forecast and actual result in 2019Q2 Mn/RMB 2Q19A 2Q19E Diff(A/E-1) Revenue 88,821 93,171 -4.67% YoY(%) Cost of revenue -49,695 -50,708 -2.00% Gross Profit 39,126 42,463 Selling Cost -4,718 -6,149 Administrative expenses -12,577 -12,299 Non-GAAP Operating income 27,521 26,549 3.66% Non-GAAP Net income 24,136 23,820 1.33% Non-GAAP profit attributed to equity holders of the company 23,525 23,129 1.71% Source：Company Disclosure, Industrial Securities Research Institute As of FY2019Q2, the company's value-added service revenue was 48.08 billion yuan, an increase of 14% over the same period last year, and the proportion of revenue fell to 54%. Financial technology and enterprise services increased by 37% to 22.88 billion over the same period last year, accounting for 25.77 percent of revenue, higher than the proportion of mobile games. Online advertising rose 16% to 13.377 billion from a year earlier, accounting for 18.5% of revenue, while other businesses accounted for 1.444 billion of revenue and 1.63 % of revenue. The revenue of the company's mobile games (including mobile games) + PC games reached 3.39 billion in Q2, and the proportion of revenue continued to decline to 38.17% (FY2018Q1: 41.4%). Fig. 1、FY2018Q1-FY2019Q1 Tencent's revenues and growth rate Fig.2、FY2018Q1-FY2019Q1 Tencent’s segment revenue share QoQ 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 - 2 - 证券研究报告 COMPANY RESEARCH 100 million in RMB 300 100 million in RMB 35% 100% 32% 33% 90% 76 97 120 233 233 241 141 160 175 203 231 243 250 29% 30% 242 27% 80% 69 25% 101 110 200 179 24% 70% 124 107 165 141 162 134 164 142 20% 60% 170 150 17% 50% 15% 40% 100 351 10% 30% 368 421 399 469 421 440 437 490 481 50 5% 20% 10% 0 0% 0% 18Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 19Q1 19Q2 17Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 18Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 19Q1 19Q2 Revenue QoQ(RHS) VAS Online Advitising Others Source：Company Disclosure, Industrial Securities Research Institute Source：Company Disclosure, Industrial Securities Research Institute *Note: for ease of comparison, this "Others" is to restore the original report account 、 Table 2 Revenue share of each segment in FY2018Q1-FY2019Q1 FY2018 Q2 FY 2018 Q3 FY 2018 Q4 FY 2019Q1 FY 2019Q2 VAS 57.10% 54.65% 51.42% 57.30% 54.13% Online games revenues 34.21% 32.03% 28.50% 33.36% 30.74% Client games revenues 17.51% 15.39% 13.19% 16.15% 13.17% Mobile games revenues 16.70% 16.64% 15.31% 17.22% 17.57% Mobile games revenues including 23.89% 24.20% 22.38% 24.81% 24.99% mobile games comission Online games revenues including mobile 41.40% 39.58% 35.57% 40.95% 38.17% games comission Social network revenue 22.89% 22.63% 22.91% 23.94% 23.39% Financial technology and enterprise services - - 25.67% 25.50% 25.77% Online advertising 19.15% 20.16% 20.06% 15.65% 18.47% Media advertising 6.42% 6.32% 6.11% 4.07% 4.95% Social and other advertising 12.73% 13.84% 13.95% 11.58% 13.52% Others（Original Report） 23.75% 25.19% 28.52% 27.04% 28.37% Others（Current Report） 1.55% 1.63% Source：Company Disclosure, Industrial Securities Research Institute Expenses increased but lower than our expectation.
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