Kent County Council Submission to the Local Government Boundary Commission for England
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Kent County Council Submission to the Local Government Boundary Commission for England (LGBCE) on Council size July 2014 Introduction: 1. This submission sets out the views of Kent County Council (KCC) on the number of County Councillors that are needed in order to support effective, efficient and accountable local democracy in Kent. The submission takes into account the political structure of the Authority and the nature of the different roles that County Councillors are required to undertake in order to deliver effective local government in Kent. In particular, the submission provides a detailed analysis of Council size in the three key areas that the Commission uses to make their judgement: The County Council’s governance arrangements and how KCC takes decisions across the broad range of its responsibilities; The County Council’s scrutiny functions relating to its own decision making and the Council’s responsibilities to outside bodies; and The representational role of Councillors in the local community and how they engage with people, conduct casework and represent the Council on local partner organisations. Profile of KCC’s area 2. The County of Kent is large and diverse, as can be seen from the following key facts and figures about Kent: Land area of 1,368 square miles and just over 350 miles of coastline; Resident population of 1.48million and growing faster than the national average; An ageing population – the number of 65+ year olds is forecast to increase by 56% by 2031; 78% of Kent’s working population are economically active (in work or actively looking); 10% of working age residents are claiming out of work benefits; 1 Just under a quarter of the Kent workforce is qualified to at least NVQ level 4, lower than the national and South East average; Kent is ranked 102nd out of 152 authorities in the Indices of Deprivation, although lots of variation, with some areas of Kent falling into the 20% most deprived in the country; 50,600 businesses are based in Kent; 89% of which employ fewer than 10 people; Professional, scientific and technical industries account for the largest proportion of Kent businesses, followed by construction, while businesses in wholesale and retail trade have the largest population of employees; and Health and wellbeing in Kent is generally good, although there are significant health inequalities, with a 15 year gap in life expectancy between the healthiest and least healthy areas. 3. Kent’s public sector landscape is complex. It is a two-tier area with 12 District, Borough and City Councils and also has 314 Town and Parish Councils. Medway Unitary Council neighbours KCC’s area. There are eight Clinical Commissioning Groups (including Medway) and 460 schools and 129 Academies. Kent has an active voluntary and community sector with over 4,700 registered charities. KCC works within this complexity, and this will become more important if the Authority looks to integrate services with those provided by other organisations where this leads to better outcomes for our customers and better efficiency. Population Forecast Outline of methodology 4. To begin with a set of district level population forecasts have been produced using the POPGROUP forecasting model. This is a demographic forecasting model owned and supported by the Local Government Association and used by over 100 authorities. It uses the cohort survival methodology and takes account of future changes to fertility, mortality, migration and household representative rates based on the information available to us at the current time. 5. The forecasts are strategy-based and take account of future housing developments. Each Kent district local authority’s planning department has provided information on recent completions and current applications for sites that are expected to come forward between now and 2020. 6. The forecasts provide an estimate of the population aged 17+ and 18+ in 2020. Business Intelligence has converted this to a forecast of the electorate by applying a population to electorate ratio specific to each Kent local authority district, calculated using an average of data for the last 3 years. 2 7. A set of electoral ward level forecasts has then been produced using a model developed in-house. The model takes account of future housing growth due to occur in each ward based on the information provided by each local authority planning department. Again, the population forecast is converted to an electorate forecast, specific to each ward, using historic RPF29 data from each local authority for the last 3 years. The ward level forecasts are constrained to the district level forecasts to ensure consistency. Summary of results 8. Business Intelligence forecasts estimate that the electorate (aged 18+) for the Kent County Council area as a whole will increase by 6.6% between 2014 and 2020. 9. As the forecasts are strategy-based, the largest increases in electorate can be found in the main growth areas of Dartford, Maidstone and Ashford, with significant increases also expected in Dover and Tonbridge & Malling. 10. Kent’s electorate aged 18+ in 2020 is forecast to be 1,159,800 (rounded to the nearest one hundred). Based on the current Council size of 84 Members this will result in each Member representing an average electorate of 13,806. This is just over 850 more electors than currently represented by each Member. A schedule showing the population forecasts for 2020 for each of the twelve District areas down to District Ward level is appended to this submission. Current Structure of the Council: 11. The County Council is currently composed of 84 Members representing 60 single Member divisions and 12 two Member divisions. Elections are held every four years and the next elections will take place in May 2017. Each County Councillor represents an average of 12,952 electors (as at February 2014). The current political composition of the County Council is as follows: Political group Number of seats Conservative 45 UKIP 17 Labour 13 Liberal Democrat 7 Independents 2 12. The County Council operates a strong executive Leader model. 3 KCC’s governance arrangements: Executive Functions 13. KCC is a strongly Member-led authority and the involvement of elected Members in both executive and non-executive decision-making, including the pre-consideration of forthcoming executive decisions, features significantly in the County Council’s governance arrangements. 14. The Leader of the Council is appointed by the County Council for a four year term. The Leader appoints the Cabinet and decides the scheme of delegation to executive Members and Officers. Key decisions cannot be taken by officers under the existing scheme of delegation. The Cabinet meets collectively in public every month, although the majority of executive decisions (approximately 200 per year) are taken by individual portfolio holders. The Cabinet comprises the Leader, Deputy Leader and 8 other portfolio holders, as follows: Leader, Business Strategy, Audit and Transformation Deputy Leader, Finance and Procurement Environment and Transport Corporate and Democratic Services Economic Development Adult Social Care and Public Health Education and Health Reform Community Services Commercial and Traded Services Specialist Children’s Services 15. Cabinet Members may, with the consent of the Leader, appoint other Members of the Council as their “Deputy Cabinet Members” (currently 11) for such purposes as the Leader and Cabinet Member may agree. A Deputy Cabinet Member may not take decisions on behalf of the Cabinet Member nor vote at a Cabinet meeting. Deputy Cabinet Members have the following responsibilities: (a) Leading on the development of policy proposals, as directed; (b) Substituting at appropriate internal meetings, including Cabinet and Scrutiny; (c) Advising on decisions to be taken by the Cabinet Member; (d) Representing the Council and Cabinet Member at external meetings; (e) Chairing relevant advisory boards, as appropriate; and (f) Handling media interviews and enquiries on behalf of the Cabinet Member in his or her absence. 16. In April 2012, the County Council introduced a revised system of governance, which included the introduction of six cross-party Cabinet 4 Committees, which are advisory Committees to the Executive and meet up to six times a year each. Cabinet Committees consider and either endorse or make recommendations on key and other significant decisions to be taken by the Leader, a Cabinet Member, the Cabinet or officers; and advise on the development of the policy framework. Cabinet Committees review performance of the functions that fall within the remit of their particular Committee and make recommendations to decision makers accordingly. Cabinet Committees are also able to hold petition debates on petitions that have reached the required signature threshold as set out in the Council’s Petition Scheme. The current Cabinet Committees are: Adult Social Care and Health Children’s Social Care and Health Education and Young People’s Services Environment and Transport Growth, Economic Development and Communities Policy and Resources (including a Property Sub Committee) 17. The three largest Opposition Groups all organise themselves in such a way as to appoint Members of their groups to shadow the work of the Cabinet portfolio holders, which will include being the lead spokesperson on relevant Committees and examining the documentation published on forthcoming executive decisions within their areas of responsibility. Non-Executive functions