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Advanced Technology Developed in Tropical Advanced Technology for Tropical Cyclone Observation, Analysis and Forecast in JMA Yoshiaki TAKEUCHI Administration Department, Japan Meteorological Agency The author acknowledges the contributions of Mr. Chiashi Muroi, Mr. Takayuki Matsumura, Mr. Hitomi Miyamoto of JMA HQ., Mr. Tomoo Ohno of MSC/JMA, Mr. Ko Koizumi, Dr. Hiromu Seko, Dr. Toru Adachi, Dr. Kazumasa Aonashi of MRI/JMA for their helpful materials and advice. TC50 TECO, Hanoi, Vietnam, 26 February 2018 Contents 1. Introduction 2. Observation and Monitoring 3. Analysis 4. Data Assimilation and Forecast 5. Summary 1. Introduction Disasters caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) Impact-based forecasts and risk-based warnings Real-time landslide risk map Real-time inundation risk map Real-time flood risk map High-resolution precipitation nowcasts Japan Meteorological Agency 3 Recent TC-related Disasters in Japan Flood & Landslide Disaster by Flood Disaster by Lionrock Nanmadol (T1703) (T1610) 5 Jul. 2017 30 Aug. 2016 545.5 mm/24hr in Asakura, Fukuoka 231 mm/24hr in Kuji, Iwate 42 People Killed, 2 People Missing 22 People Killed, 5 People Missing Annual Number of Rainfall larger than 80mm/1hr Number of occurrences / 1,000 stations occurrences of Number Year 16 Oct. 2013 7-10 Sep. 2015 122.5mm/1hr, 824.0mm/24hr in Izu-Oshima 541.0mm/24hr in Imaichi, Tochigi 35 People Killed, 4 People Missing 7,280/12,035 houses flooded above/below floor level Landslide Disaster by Wipha Flood Disaster by Kilo (T1517) & Etau4 (T1326) Japan Meteorological Agency (T1518) Hazard Potential Indices Simple Tank models Rainfall analysis and forecast (QPE/QPF) Inundation Flood Landslide surface Potential Index Potential Index Potential Index Total amount of middle Total amount of Total amount of water in the water coming out water flowing three tanks from the tanks down to rivers depth Japan Meteorological Agency 5 Utilization of Real-time Potential Risk Map Potential Risk Map Warning Message Heavy rain Advisory Emergency managers Inform Check Heavy rain Increase of the risk area Warning RISK Risk in detail Landslide Disaster Alert Information etc. Residents Hazard Potential Indices Japan Meteorological Agency 6 2. Observation and Monitoring a. Satellite Observation (Himawari, etc.) b. Ground-based Observation (Radar etc.) Japan Meteorological Agency 7 Observation from Aircrafts and Satellites Courtesy of NWS Ida (T5822) on 24 Sep. 1958 Aircraft reconnaissance of western Pacific typhoons was done by the U.S. military till 1987. Irving (T7910) on 14 Aug. 1979 JMA launched GMS in 1978 and 3 hourly images became available. Wilda (T7009) on 14 Aug. 1970 JMA has received images from Polar-orbiting satellites named ESSA twice a day since 1968. Japan Meteorological Agency 8 History of Japanese Himawari Series GMS (Geostationary Meteorological Satellite) GMS GMS-2 GMS-3 GMS-4 GMS-5 (Himawari) (Himawari -2) (Himawari -3) (Himawari -4) (Himawari -5) GOES-9 Back-up operation of GMS-5 with GOES-9 by NOAA/NESDIS Jul 1977 Aug 1981 Aug 1984 Sep 1989 Mar 1995 2003.5.22 – 2005.6.28 Observation 3 hourly hourly Satellite period MTSAT (Multi-functional Transport SATellite ) GMS 1978 – 1981 MTSAT-1R MTSAT-2 (Himawari -8) GMS-2 1981 – 1984 (Himawari-6) (Himawari-7) Himawari (Himawari -9) GMS-3 1984 – 1989 GMS-4 1989 – 1995 Nov 2016 GMS-5 1995 – 2003 GOES-9 2003 – 2005 Feb 2005 Feb 2006 MTSAT-1R 2005 – 2010 Oct 2014 MTSAT-2 2010 – 2015 Himawari-8 2015 – Himawari-9 2022–(Plan) half-hourly every 10 min/ 2.5 min Japan Meteorological Agency 9 Imagery Products for Asia-Oceania Region Anyone can get these products by real-time JPEG imagery service through MSC website Target area observation for Asia-Oceania region via the Internet. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/mscweb/data/himawari/index.html Providing imagery on MSC website Easy access to Himawari imagery Processed into sectored images in JPEG format for – Australia – Central Asia – Pacific Islands – Southeast Asia and more.... on real-time basis with animation in the last 23 hours Imagery with heavy rainfall potential areas Real-time JPEG Imagery Service through JMA/MSC Website for Asia-Oceania Region Japan Meteorological Agency 10 RS-AMV from AHI Target Observation Rapid scan AMV of Himawari-8 yields not only increase of temporal resolution but also increase of spatial resolution and data quality. Operational Himawari-8 AMV Himawari-8 Rapid Scan AMV Using 10 min. and 2 km resolution Using 2.5 min. and 0.5 km (VIS) IR and VIS AMVs (QI>60, 00UTC August 20th 2015 ) Japan Meteorological Agency 11 Himawari-8 RS-AMVs for Typhoons Analysis Between low level AMVs and sea surface winds of ASCAT, they have good correlation around a typhoon. Sea surface winds estimated from low-level AMVs are provided to the Tokyo Typhoon Center to use for their operational typhoons analysis. Low-level AMV vs ASCAT Wind Speed Wind Direction Low level AMVs (AMV height ≥ 700hPa , TALIM (T1718) QI(w/o forecast) ≥ 0.8) 06UTC – 12UTC 15 Sep. 2017 To estimate ocean wind speed by Estimated sea surface wind from the low-level RS- low-level AMVs around a typhoon AMVs (IR and VIS) that are calculated every 10min using linear regression using 5/2.5min images. (Background is full disk IR -> monitor typhoons image) Japan Meteorological Agency 12 Himawari-8 RGB Image for Typhoons Analysis TC related very active convective clouds with heavy rain Application: and cloud types can be visually monitored by using RGB Analysis cloud thickness, height of images in real time base cloud top and cloud phase at one time. Cloudless Thin high-level cloud with ice particles Thin high- Thick high- level cloud level cloud with water with ice droplets particles Thin low- level cloud Thick low- with water Thick low-level level cloud droplets cloud with with ice water droplets particles Typhoon Noru (T1705) Interpretation (under investigation) Band Gamma TBB/Reflectivity range → Cloud height R B13(IR 10.4) 1.0 219.62～280.67[K] → Cloud thickness G B03(VS 0.64) 1.0 0.00～0.78 → Cloud phase B B05(N2 1.6) 1.0 0.01～0.59 Japan Meteorological Agency 13 Water Vapor Monitoring with Himawari RGB Image Water vapor distribution affecting intensity of TCs is also monitored by a kind of RGB images. B10(WV7.3)- B08(WV6.2) B08(WV6.2) High level water Humid or dry at vapor high-mid level, Thick cloud B10(WV7.3) Mid level water vapor Water Vapor RGB 04:30UTC July 6, 2017 Typhoon NEPARTAK (1601) Japan Meteorological Agency 14 TC Intensity Analysis with Ground-based Radar It is estimated that the typhoon was in the south of Kumejima with the central pressure in the range of 900 hPa to 910 hPa for October 3, 18JST. At that time, the wind speed of 80 m / s or more was blowing at the altitude of 2 km near the center. The typhoon had a very compact and sharp structure, and the strongest wind was blowing on the left side of the route near the eye wall. Peak Nearest to Kumejima Estimated central pressure (1500 JST Oct. 3) (0040 JST Oct.4 ) and max wind speed at 2 km height ) 930 120 hPa 920 100 910 80 pressure ( pressure 900 60 wind speed(m/s) central central 890 40 max 1700 1300 1400 1500 1600 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 0000 0100 0200 0300 0400 0500 10/3 JST 10/4 Japan Meteorological Agency 15 TC Structure Captured by a Phased Array Radar Inner region Intensification of convection © NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab. Contraction of rotating wind JMA/MRI X-band Phased- Array Radar (2015-) Rapid change of 3D reflectivity Mindulle (T1609) Landfall and wind field structures Japan Meteorological Agency 16 3. Analysis Japan Meteorological Agency 17 TC Position & Intensity Analysis Regular Observation and Analysis Irregular Observation Intensity Estimation using Microwave History of TC Analysis IR Gestational Satellite IR,VIS and SYNOP, SHIP MW 36GHz Surface, Ship and Upper Microwave Imagery Gestational Satellite, Surface, Ship Microwave Intensity and Upper data are essential for TC analysis when the TC is at sea area. Dovorak Method, Estimatation Compass Method, … Microwave Scatterometer Radar wind data All-weather Sea Surface Wind Sped AMEDAS Intensity of Estimation of lower cumulus convection, Available only when the TC is approaching Japan sea wind and warm core around the TC Analysis of TC and weather chart Applying all the observational data for both TC analysis and surface weather chart. All-Sky wind data Scatterometer wind data Himawari-8 RS-AMVs for Typhoons Analysis The maximum wind speed on the ground estimated from the maximum tangent wind of the upper tropospheric AMV well matches the maximum wind speed of the best track. The upper maximum outflows have correlation with the IR (band13) TBs of Himawari-8 averaged within the radius of 200 km of the TC center. Tangential Wind Outflow 久米島通過頃 久米島通過頃 （10/3 15UTC） （10/3 15UTC） RI期間3 10m/s以上の上 層アウトフロー （前半は 期間） RI期間2 RI Time sequence (every 30 min.) of tangential wind and outflow of upper-air AMV （100～300hPa） derived from Himawari-8 Region 3 observation（2.5min,1000x1000km） （T1610 case） Japan Meteorological Agency 19 4. Data Assimilation and Forecast a. Computer Resources and NWP Models b. Data Assimilation c. Forecast d. Ensemble Forecasts Japan Meteorological Agency 20 TC Track Forecast JMA Global Ensemble Prediction System Flow of TC Forecasting（track） 40km, L100, M27 The latest products of operational JMA GSM Numerical Weather Prediction 20km, L100 Other NWPs (ECMWF, NCEP etc) Confirmation of the skill of the earlier initial NWP products Observation Correction the initial TC position TC Analysis TC Center Position, Direction, Speed Statics and Variability of EPS and Radius of Probability
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