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Impact of Canadian Economic Development on Northern Montana

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Impact of Canadian Economic Development on Northern Montana IMPACT OF CANADIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ON NORTHERN MONTANA Ports of Wildhorse and Morgan Highway HIGHWAYSCorridors - PHASE II 14 / Final Report FHWA/MT- -005 8197-002 prepared for THE STATE OF MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION in cooperation with THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION FEDERAL HIGHWAY ADMINISTRATION October 2014 prepared by Stéphane Gros, Jon Lee Daniel Goodman, Brian Park Melissa Pumphrey, Tim Erickson Michael Johnson HDR Silver Spring, Maryland RESEARCH PROGRAMS You are free to copy, distribute, display, and perform the work; make derivative works; make commercial use of the work under the condition that you give the original author and sponsor credit. For any reuse or distribution, you must make clear to others the license terms of this work. Any of these conditions can be waived if you get permission from the sponsor. Your fair use and other rights are in no way affected by the above. Impact of Canadian Economic Development on Northern Montana Highways- Phase II Ports of Wild Horse and Morgan Highway Corridors Final Report Prepared for The State of Montana Department of Transportation Prepared by HDR 8403 Colesville Road, Suite 910 Silver Spring, MD 20910 October 2014 Technical Report Documentation Page 1. Report No. FHWA/MT-005/8197-002 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient's Catalog No. 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date October 2014 Impact of Canadian Economic Development on Northern Montana Highways Phase II, Ports of Wild Horse and Morgan Highway Corridors 6. Performing Organization Code HDR 7. Author(s) 8. Performing Organization Report No. Stéphane Gros, Jon Lee, Daniel Goodman, Brian Park, Melissa Pumphrey, Tim Erickson, Michael Johnson 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. HDR 8403 Colesville Road, Suite 910 Silver Spring, MD 20910 11. Contract or Grant No. 8197-002 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered Research Programs Final Report Montana Department of Transportation January 2013 to April 2014 2701 Prospect Avenue PO Box 201001 14. Sponsoring Agency Code: 5401 Helena MT 59620-1001 15. Supplementary Notes Research performed in cooperation with the Montana Department of Transportation and the US Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration. The products of this research and the Phase 1 study can be found at http://www.mdt.mt.gov/research/projects/mcs/canada_impact_nhwy.shtml (last accessed October 3, 2014). 16. Abstract The purpose of this study is to determine whether highway infrastructure in Montana is adequate to support future expected growth in traffic resulting from economic development in Canada, and a number of potential changes in border operations, industry structure and freight-related policy. Historical data on cross-border traffic, empirical findings from existing research, interviews with selected industry representatives and subject matter experts, as well as professional judgment, were used to: i) provide an overview of the regional economy, highlighting threats and opportunities for future economic development and growth in international trade; ii) develop forecasts of cross-border commodity flows and commercial traffic under alternative scenarios and economic growth assumptions; iii) document existing conditions along two highway corridors connecting US 2 with the Canadian border, namely the S-232 corridor between US 2 and Wild Horse, and the US 191 corridor between US 2 and Morgan; and iv) assess whether existing highway infrastructure along these corridors was adequate to accommodate future expected traffic levels. A number of conclusions could be reached. First, it is anticipated that existing highway infrastructure in Montana will be adequate to handle the potential increase in overall traffic, as well as the potential increase of truck traffic for both corridors of interest. Second, should the existing pavement and geometric conditions be maintained, the expected increase in AADT and truck percentages should not degrade the weighted traffic operations below free-flow conditions (LOS A); although individual locations within the corridor may experience higher degradation in operations than the overall weighted average operations. Third, traffic operations along the highway segments immediately adjacent to the ports are expected to remain below free-flow conditions through 2032. Only under the most aggressive growth scenario would traffic conditions south of Wild Horse deteriorate below LOS A in the busiest hour, in 2028. 17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement Economic Development, Border Crossing, Forecasting, Trade Flows, Unrestricted. This document is available through the National Traffic Volumes Technical Information Service, Springfield, VA 21161. 19. Security Classification (of this 20. Security Classification 21. No. of Pages 227 22. Price report): Unclassified (of this page): Unclassified HDR ii Disclaimer Statement This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the Montana Department of Transportation (MDT) and the United States Department of Transportation (USDOT) in the interest of information exchange. The State of Montana and the United States assume no liability for the use or misuse of its contents. The contents of this document reflect the views of the authors, who are solely responsible for the facts and accuracy of the data presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the views or official policies of MDT or the USDOT. The State of Montana and the United States do not endorse products of manufacturers. This document does not constitute a standard, specification, policy or regulation. Alternative Format Statement MDT attempts to provide accommodations for any known disability that may interfere with a person participating in any service, program, or activity of the Department. Alternative accessible formats of this information will be provided upon request. For further information, call 406/444.7693, TTY 800/335.7592, or Montana Relay at 711. Acknowledgements The consultant team wishes to acknowledge the contributions and guidance of many individuals and their organizations for the development and completion of this research project. The research was directed by a technical panel composed of public and private sector stakeholders: . Becky Duke – MDT, Planning . Hal Fossum – MDT, Planning (formerly) . Zia Kazimi – MDT, Planning (formerly) . Matt Ladenburg – MDT, Maintenance . Doug McBroom – MDT, Planning . Christopher Dorrington – MDT, Planning . Dan Moore – MDT, Motor Carrier Services . Wayne Noem – MDT, Planning . Jim Skinner – MDT, Planning The study was managed by Kris Christensen, Research Programs Manager, Christopher Dorrington and Doug McBroom, Chairs of the Technical Panel. The consultant team conducted multiple interviews with economic development officials, business owners, local and state elected officials, and other stakeholders. Due to the informal nature of some of these communications (e.g., telephone conversations, e-mail exchanges, chance encounters at presentations, etc.), it is not possible to acknowledge all those who gave their insights and offered assistance over the course of the project. HDR iii TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................... XIII 1 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND.............................................................................................. 1 1.1 BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 THE 2010 ICED STUDY ................................................................................................................. 2 1.3 OBJECTIVES OF PHASE 2 ................................................................................................................ 3 1.4 APPROACH OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................... 4 1.5 PLAN OF THIS REPORT ................................................................................................................... 5 2 OVERVIEW OF THE REGIONAL ECONOMY .................................................................................... 6 2.1 POPULATION GROWTH ................................................................................................................... 6 2.2 LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT ........................................................................ 7 2.3 WAGES AND DISPOSABLE INCOME ................................................................................................ 12 2.4 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ........................................................................................................ 14 2.5 SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 2 ............................................................................................................. 18 3 REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK BY SECTOR .......................................................................... 19 3.1 MINING, QUARRYING AND OIL AND GAS EXTRACTION ..................................................................... 19 3.2 AGRICULTURE .............................................................................................................................. 28 3.3 CONSTRUCTION ........................................................................................................................... 36 3.4 MANUFACTURING ........................................................................................................................
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