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Ecological Effects of Climate-Driven Salinity Variation in the San Francisco Estuary: Can We Anticipate and Manage the Coming Changes? Cameron K

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Ecological Effects of Climate-Driven Salinity Variation in the San Francisco Estuary: Can We Anticipate and Manage the Coming Changes? Cameron K Sponsored by the Delta Science Program and the UC Davis Muir Institute RESEARCH Ecological Effects of Climate-Driven Salinity Variation in the San Francisco Estuary: Can We Anticipate and Manage the Coming Changes? Cameron K. Ghalambor*1,2, Edward S. Gross3, Edwin D. Grosholz4, Ken M. Jeffries5, John L. Largier4,6, Stephen D. McCormick7, Ted Sommer8, Jonathan P. Velotta9, Andrew Whitehead10 ABSTRACT SFEWS Volume 19 | Issue 2 | Article 3 Climate change-driven sea level rise and https://doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2021v19iss2art3 altered precipitation regimes are predicted to * Corresponding author: [email protected] alter patterns of salt intrusion within the San 1 Department of Biology Francisco Estuary. A central question is: Can we Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD) Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) use existing knowledge and future projections N–7491 Trondheim, Norway to predict and manage the anticipated ecological 2 Department of Biology and impacts? This was the subject of a 2018 Graduate Degree Program in Ecology symposium entitled “Ecological and Physiological Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523 USA Impacts of Salinization of Aquatic Systems from 3 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Human Activities.” The symposium brought University of California, Davis together an inter-disciplinary group of scientists Davis, CA 95616 USA and researchers, resource managers, and policy- 4 Department of Environmental Science and Policy makers. Here, we summarize and review the University of California, Davis Davis, CA 95616 USA presentations and discussions that arose during 5 Department of Biological Sciences the symposium. From a historical perspective, University of Manitoba salt intrusion has changed substantially over Winnipeg, MB R3T2N2 Canada the past 10,000 years as a result of changing 6 Coastal and Marine Sciences Institute climate patterns, with additional shifts from University of California Davis recent anthropogenic effects. Current salinity Bodega Bay CA 94923 USA patterns in the San Francisco Estuary are driven 7 Conte Research Laboratory, Eastern Ecological Science Center, US Geological Survey by a suite of hydrodynamic processes within Turners Falls, MA 01376 USA the given contexts of water management and 8 California Department of Water Resources geography. Based on climate projections for the Sacramento, CA 94236 USA coming century, significant changes are expected 9 Department of Biological Sciences in the processes that determine the spatial and University of Denver Denver, CO 80208 USA temporal patterns of salinity. Given that native 10 Department of Environmental Toxicology species—including fishes such as the Delta Center for Population Biology Smelt and Sacramento Splittail—track favorable Coastal and Marine Sciences Institute habitats, exhibit physiological acclimation, and University of California, Davis Davis, CA 95616 USA can adaptively evolve, we present a framework 1 VOLUME 19, ISSUE 2, ARTICLE 3 for assessing their vulnerability to altered salinity ocean are naturally dynamic, and change in in the San Francisco Estuary. We then present a response to tidal and other ocean influences, range of regulatory and structural management freshwater inputs, and changes in the physical tools that are available to control patterns of structure of these environments (Herbert et al. salinity within the San Francisco Estuary. Finally, 2015). Sea level rise will push high-salinity we identify major research priorities that can water further inland, resulting in salinization of help fill critical gaps in our knowledge about low-salinity and freshwater areas (Chua and Xu future salinity patterns and the consequences 2014). However, the extent of this salinization of climate change and sea level rise. These depends on several other important natural and research projects will be most effective with human-influenced factors. For example, the strong linkages and communication between increased likelihood of extreme events such as scientists and researchers, resource managers, and prolonged droughts and heatwaves will decrease policy-makers. freshwater inputs from snow and rain, and increase evaporation rates, allowing saltwater to extend further inland (Nicholls and Cazenave KEY WORDS 2010). At the same time, powerful storms may Delta Smelt, Sacramento Splittail, sea level transiently increase river flows that push rise, salinity intrusion, freshwater inflow, freshwater seaward and transiently raise sea level, hydrodynamics, habitat, paleosalinity enhancing salinity intrusion in the short term and altering the morphology of estuary channels, resulting in long-term changes in saltwater INTRODUCTION intrusion (Scavia et al. 2002). Human activities Global sea levels continue to rise, and are doing can magnify these salinization effects (e.g., water so at increasing rates, in response to global extraction for irrigation or drinking water, or warming through thermal expansion of the salinity contamination by urban and agricultural oceans, and the melting of glaciers (Church runoff), which has led to what is referred to as and White 2006; Nicholls and Cazenave 2010; the “freshwater salinization syndrome” (Kaushal IPCC 2014; Dangendorf et al. 2017). These trends et al. 2018). Anticipating and managing these in sea levels are predicted to continue, with risks represents a global challenge for coastal projections of an additional increase of 60 cm to ecosystems; however, proposed regulatory 2.7 m by the year 2100 (Nicholls and Cazenave solutions will ultimately depend on local 2010; Sweet et al. 2017; Fasullo and Nerem 2018). conditions. Here, our focus is the risk presented Increasing sea levels pose significant physical by future salinization of the San Francisco and biological risks for coastal environments, Estuary ecosystem (hereafter “the estuary"). including submergence and increased flooding risk of coastal lands, salinization of estuarine The estuary is an expansive system that extends habitats and freshwater resources, and increased from the coastal ocean through San Francisco extinction risk to biodiversity (Scavia et al. 2002; Bay and landward to the inland Sacramento–San Basset et al. 2013). Yet, predicting how rising sea Joaquin River Delta. The estuary is among the levels will affect coastal and connected inland largest of North America’s estuaries, and includes ecosystems depends on diverse features of these the densely populated urban Bay Area as well natural systems and associated human effects as the sparsely populated but highly modified and activities. This is particularly evident when rural agricultural lands of the Central Valley. The attempting to predict and manage the effects importance of freshwater resources for drinking of sea level rise and shifting climates on the water, irrigation, and biodiversity cannot be salinization of freshwater resources. overstated. How will future sea level rise and altered precipitation patterns affect this estuarine The salinity gradients that form in the estuarine ecosystem through salinization? What risks can zone between freshwater rivers and the coastal be managed, and which risks cannot? Can we use 2 our existing knowledge and future projections of moderate flow conditions. Yet, the historic the drivers of salinization to predict biological patterns of salinity within the estuary have effects, and develop appropriate management varied greatly over geologic and contemporary plans, interventions, and regulations? time-scales (e.g., Drexler et al. 2014; Hutton et al. 2016; Andrews et al. 2017; Rath et al. These questions were the subject of a symposium 2017; Gross et al. 2018), such that managing held on September 26th, 2018, entitled “Ecological salinity in the face of future risks requires and Physiological Impacts of Salinization of not only an assessment of current patterns of Aquatic Systems from Human Activities,” hosted salinity, but also of historic patterns and trends. by the Coastal and Marine Sciences Institute at Characterizing historic salinity levels within the the University of California, Davis, and supported estuary provides not only a baseline by which to in part by the Delta Stewardship Council (Delta judge management actions, but also provides the Science Program) and the UC Agriculture and context within which native species have evolved Natural Resources Program. The symposium and historically thrived. Below, we review salinity brought together a diverse group of scientists patterns during three broad time-periods: (1) the and researchers, resource managers, and policy- paleo-record during the Holocene, predating any makers interested in the complexity of and substantial human modification of the system; the potential for predicting future salinization (2) the late 19th and early 20th centuries, which scenarios, with a particular focus on the estuary. marked the beginning of increased freshwater This paper is based on the presentations and extraction; and (3) the contemporary period, discussions that arose during the symposium. which is associated with major water projects, Below, we characterize some of the main features increased freshwater storage, managed flow, and of the estuary that have shaped historic and increased demands on freshwater. current patterns of salinity. We then review some of the future risk factors envisioned to 1. The Paleo-History of Salinity in the Estuary increase salinity within the estuary, and the The patterns of salinity fluctuation within the associated consequences
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