The Fragmentation of Darfur's Rebel Groups
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6 Divided They Fall: The Fragmentation of Darfur’s Rebel Groups By Victor Tanner and Jérôme Tubiana Copyright The Small Arms Survey Published in Switzerland by the Small Arms Survey The Small Arms Survey is an independent research project located at the Grad- uate Institute of International Studies in Geneva, Switzerland. Established in © Small Arms Survey, Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva 2007 1999, the project is supported by the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs, First published in July 2007 and by sustained contributions from the Governments of Belgium, Canada, Finland, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. The All rights reserved. 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The objectives of the Small Arms Survey are: to be the principal source of pub- lic information on all aspects of small arms and armed violence; to serve as a Small Arms Survey resource centre for governments, policy-makers, researchers, and activists; Graduate Institute of International Studies to monitor national and international initiatives (governmental and non- 47 Avenue Blanc, 1202 Geneva, Switzerland governmental) on small arms; to support efforts to address the effects of small Copyedited by Michael Griffin arms proliferation and misuse; and to act as a clearinghouse for the sharing of information and the dissemination of best practices. The Survey also sponsors Cartography by MAPgrafix field research and information-gathering efforts, especially in affected states Typeset in Optima and Palatino by Richard Jones, Exile: Design & Editorial and regions. The project has an international staff with expertise in security Services ([email protected]) studies, political science, law, economics, development studies, and sociology, and collaborates with a network of researchers, partner institutions, non- Printed by nbmedia in Geneva, Switzerland governmental organizations, and governments in more than 50 countries. ISBN 2-8288-0083-0 Small Arms Survey Graduate Institute of International Studies 47 Avenue Blanc, 1202 Geneva, Switzerland Phone: +41 22 908 5777 Fax: +41 22 732 2738 Email: [email protected] Web site: www.smallarmssurvey.org 2 Small Arms Survey HSBA Working Paper 6 Tanner and Tubiana Divided They Fall 3 The Human Security Baseline Assessment Contents The Sudan Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) is a multi-year research Acronyms and abbreviations ................................................................................................................................................. 7 project (2005–08) administered by the Small Arms Survey. It has been devel- About the authors ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 oped in cooperation with the Canadian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS), the UN Development Programme, and a wide array Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................................................................ 9 of international and Sudanese NGO partners. Through the active generation and dissemination of timely empirical research, the HSBA project works to A note on transliteration from Arabic ................................................................................................................... 10 support disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR), security sector Abstract ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11 reform (SSR), and arms control interventions to promote security. I. Historical roots of the Darfur insurgency ................................................................................................ 13 The HSBA is being carried out by a multidisciplinary team of regional, security, Marginalization and resistance in Darfur ......................................................................................................... 13 and public health specialists. It reviews the spatial distribution of armed vio- lence throughout Sudan and offers policy-relevant advice to redress insecurity. A time of growing violence (1987–2002) ............................................................................................................. 14 HSBA Working Papers are timely and user-friendly reports on current research II. The Sudan Liberation Army before the Abuja peace talks ................................. 17 activities in English and Arabic. Future papers will focus on a variety of issues, Early efforts and the Darfur Liberation Front ........................................................................................... 17 including victimization and perceptions of security, armed groups, and local Seeking support outside Darfur ....................................................................................................................................... 20 security arrangements. The project also generates a series of Issue Briefs. From all-out war to the DPA (2003–05) ................................................................................................................. 23 The HSBA project is supported by Canada, the UK Government Conflict Pre- III. The Justice and Equality Movement vention Pool, and the Danish International Development Agency (Danida). before the Abuja peace talks .............................................................................................................................................. 31 For more information contact: Punching above its weight ........................................................................................................................................................ 31 The Turabi link .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 31 Claire Mc Evoy HSBA Project Coordinator Ethnic politics .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 34 Small Arms Survey, 47 Avenue Blanc A national programme ..................................................................................................................................................................... 35 1202 Geneva, Switzerland Relations between the JEM and the SLA ............................................................................................................. 35 E-mail: [email protected] IV. Tactics of the SLA and the JEM ........................................................................................................................... 37 Web site: www.smallarmssurvey.org (click on Sudan) Military tactics ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 37 HSBA Working Paper series editor: Emile LeBrun Popular support .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 37 4 Small Arms Survey HSBA Working Paper 6 Tanner and Tubiana Divided They Fall 5 V. Abuja and the withering of SLA-Minni .................................................................................................. 40 Acronyms and abbreviations The Darfur Peace Agreement ................................................................................................................................................ 40 SLA-Minni: hurtling towards irrelevance ........................................................................................................ 40 Other pro-DPA groups: GoS proxy militias? ................................................................................................ 45 VI. Non-signatory groups ......................................................................................................................................................... 48 CFC Ceasefire Commission CPA Comprehensive Peace Agreement Non-signatory SLA factions .................................................................................................................................................... 48 DLF Darfur Liberation Front The JEM after Abuja ............................................................................................................................................................................. 51 DPA