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Trends in Base Stock and Lubricants Business and Particularities of Markets in Croatia and the Surrounding Region

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Trends in Base Stock and Lubricants Business and Particularities of Markets in Croatia and the Surrounding Region Trendovi... R. Mandakovi ć Robert Mandakovi ć ISSN 0350-350X GOMABN 46, 6, 437-474 Review UDK 621.892 : .002.237 : 380.134 : (497.13 -194.2) : (100) TRENDS IN BASE STOCK AND LUBRICANTS BUSINESS AND PARTICULARITIES OF MARKETS IN CROATIA AND THE SURROUNDING REGION Abstract The constant rise in consumption of lubricants and base oils is not equally spread in different markets and regions of the world. The trends in lubricant and base oil quality requirements, as well as the unevenness in demand depending on the quality and specifications of the certain markets have a great influence on the lubricant, base oil and lubricant additives industry. The latest regulations on the environment protection have a special impact on the lubricant business in Europe and Croatia and they will primarily increase the responsibility of the industry, but simultaneously decrease its competitiveness. The latest trends in the lubricant business in Croatia and the surrounding region as well as the synergistic effect of the continuous and increasing imports of the new industrial equipment and vehicles as well as current quality requirements in Europe will continue to show decrease in lubricant consumption in Croatia and the surrounding region. Estimated global demand of finished lubricants and base stock, 2003- 2010 On the basis of the latest research done by Total (1) it has been estimated that the global demand of lubricants and base stock will be increased by the 6% growth in the period from 2005 to 2010. Figure 1 shows that the global lubricant consumption has been increased from 37.1 million to approx. 40 million tons which stands for the growth of huge 7.8%. Accordingly, there is also a significant growth trend with base stock which is 9.6%; in 456 goriva i maziva , 46, 6 : 437-474, 2007. R. Mandakovi ć Trendovi... 2003 the base stock consumption was 31 million tons and it has reached 34 million tons in 2005. Still, this growth trend will be slowed down. Figure 1: Estimated global demand of finished lubricants and base stock, 2003 – 2010 (10 6 t) 45 40 35 30 25 Lubricants 20 Base stock 15 10 5 0 2003 2005 2010 It has been estimated (1) that by the year 2010 the global demand of lubricants will reach 42.6 million tons (6%). Simultaneously, the base stock demand will be increased for approx. 6.4%. In 2010 the total demand of base stock will be 36.2 million tons maximum. The same source estimates that the decrease of lubricant demand will be continued in the Western Europe for 1,3% per year. Here we also have to mention that the demand of lubricants in the Central and Eastern Europe, which approximately equals the demand in the Western Europe at the moment, will continuously grow. Some observers believe that the terms like the Central and Eastern Europe are old- fashioned and it's still quite touchy to attach them to certain countries, so they could present an obstacle for lubricant business today in this part of Europe. The new market division of the 'rest' of Europe (2) into 3 geographical groups has been well accepted. The first group consists of the Central European countries: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. The countries of the South Europe make the second group: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Rumania, Serbia (Kosovo) and Monte Negro. The former Soviet Union countries make the third group: Byelorussia, Estonia, Latonia, Latvia, Russia, Ukraine and Moldavia. Nevertheless, apart from geographical and historical reasons, there are also some other more significant similarities within these groups, especially when a budget growth and foreign investments are concerned. goriva i maziva , 46, 6 : 437-474, 2007. 457 Trendovi... R. Mandakovi ć The tables 1 and 2 show estimated lubricant and base stock consumption in the world by regions from 2005 to 2010. Due to its special features marine oils are excluded. The table 1 shows that the lubricant market in North America will be mostly stable, also with the possibility of very small increase by 0.3% in the period mentioned. The greatest increase, 3-3.5% per year, will be in Asia and Pacific, which already has the biggest share in the global lubricant consumption (more than 34%). Table 1: Estimated lubricant consumption by region, 2005-2010, including Mexico* 2005 2010 10 6 t % 10 6 t % Asia – Pacific 12.6 31.5 14.6 34.3 North America 9.2 23.0 9.3 21.9 West Europe 4.5 11.3 4.2 9.9 East Europe 4.3 10.8 4.6 10.8 Latin America* 3.0 7.5 3.2 7.5 Middle East 2.0 5.0 2.2 5.1 Africa 1.9 4.8 2.0 4.7 Marine oils 2.5 6.3 2,5 5.9 Total 40 100.0 42.6 100.0 The estimated current capacities of base stock production in the world are about 46 million tons coming from 143 plants (out of 151 plants) which produce base stock. The production capacity of Group I base oils is about 28 million tons, Group II a bit more than 10 million tons, Group III almost 3 million tons. The production capacity of naphtenic base oils is a bit less than 4 million tons (3) . The tables 1 and 2 show the quantities in million tons (x10 6 t). The table 2 shows that Asia and Pacific have the greatest share in the global distribution of lubricant consumption. They are closely followed by North America. The biggest growth in the demand of base stocks by 2010 is expected again in Asia and Pacific. Table 2: Estimated base oil consumption by region, 2005-2010, x10 6 t 2005 2010 Asia – Pacific 10.7 12.4 North America 7.8 7.9 West Europe 3.8 3.6 East Europe 3.7 3.9 Latin America* 2.6 2.7 Middle East 1.7 1.9 Africa 1.6 1.7 Marine oils 2.1 2.1 Total 34.0 35.2 458 goriva i maziva , 46, 6 : 437-474, 2007. R. Mandakovi ć Trendovi... New capacities, estimated balance of base stock distribution, production economy A few big well known oil companies have already announced 11 projects of building new base oil production plants in the period 2007-2013, all in Asia and Pacific. That will certainly increase the offer of high quality base stocks for additional 6,45 million tons ( 4) . The production technology in all these projects is based on the catalytic dewaxing process or GTL technology (Gas-to-liquid). The only GTL project that has been delayed is ExxonMobil in Qatar. Still, even without it, 5 million tons of high quality base stocks are expected on the market. The ExxonMobil Corporation is currently the biggest base oil producer in the world; it produces approx. 24000 t/day and holds 16% of total production in the world. The ExxonMobil is followed by the 8 base oils biggest producers (coming by this order): 1. Shell, Motiva 2. PetroChina, Sinopec (China) 3. Petroleos de Venezuela (Nynas, Citgo) 4. Lukoil (Russia) 5. S-Oil (Korea) 6. Petrobras (Brasil) 7. SK Corp. (Korea) 8. Chevron/Texaco It is interesting to note that the BP Company, being the biggest base stock consumer in the world, is not among the first 9 main base stock producers. With the lubricants the order is somehow different. There are 12 big lubricant producers which cover approx. 55% of the global lubricant production (from Shell which produces approx. 5000 t/day to Yukos/Sibneft which produces only 500 t/day (4) ). They are: 1. Shell 2. ExxonMobil 3. BP (Castrol, Aral…) 4. PetroChina/Sinopec 5. Chevron/Texaco 6. Total 7. Lukoil 8. Fuchs 9. Nippon Oil 10. Valvoline 11. Conoco Phillips 12. Yukos/Sibneft The Figure 2 shows that the Group I base oils with their 61% share are still dominant in the global consumption, but there is still a big disproportion in demand and offer according to types and regions (3, 7) . Most experts and observers estimate that today's supply surplus (3 million tons of Group II base oils) will be decreased to less than 2 million tons during the next 5 years (till 2012). At the same time the surplus of goriva i maziva , 46, 6 : 437-474, 2007. 459 Trendovi... R. Mandakovi ć Group I base oils will be decreased, so the current shortage of 2 million tons will be lowered to 1 million tons in 2012. Nevertheless, in most parts of Europe the situation is completely different. The surplus of Group I base oils (approx. 1 million tons) will be gradually increased to 2 million tons till 2012. On the other hand, the current shortage of Group II base oils (1 million) in Europe will be increased even in 2012 (2 million tons). In Asia the shortage of high viscosity base oils will grow, primarily Group I base oils, but also Group II base oils. The growth demand will lead to chronic shortage of Group I base oils, primarily in Asia and Africa. In the future a certain change is expected with share increase of Group III base oils in relation with the current consumption distribution. At this moment it is very difficult to estimate what the distribution will be like after GTL base oils come to the market. Figure 2: Estimated consumption distribution of base oil by types, 2005 Gp III 9% 6% Naphtenic base oils Gp II 22% 2% others Gp I 61% Generally the Group III base oils will become a conventional replacement for Group I and II base oils.
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