September 2020 Consumer Subscription Software Insights
Important disclosures appear at the back of this report GP Bullhound LLP is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority GP Bullhound Inc is a member of FINRA 1 Agenda
1 2020 consumer subscription software (“CSS”) insights
2 Key CSS metrics & criteria for investors
3 Building blocks of CSS companies
4 CSS CEO commentary
5 Investor interest in CSS continues to grow
6 GP Bullhound’s consumer subscription software practice
Confidential 2 Section 1 2020 consumer subscription software (“CSS”) insights
Confidential 3 GP Bullhound’s consumer subscription software practice
. GP Bullhound is a leading technology advisory and investment firm, providing transaction advice and capital to category leaders with a robust focus on Enterprise & Consumer Software globally.
. We publish this Consumer Subscription Software (“CSS”) market report to provide qualitative insights into company business models, technology and customer trends. In this report, we also feature several of the leading CSS companies & CEOs across interesting sub-sectors as well as detail interesting trends in the sector.
. Our research and report focus on software business models and content and do not include physical products or goods due to different margin and cash flow profiles.
GP Bullhound continues to be a leader in the CSS sector from both an advisory and an investment perspective:
Current Current Client Client
STREAMING ONLINE EDUCATION ACQUIRED BY INVESTMENT BY INVESTMENT BY ENTERTAINMENT PROVIDER
Capital Raise Sell-side Fund III
Current Current Client Cient
JOB SEARCH FITNESS INVESTMENT BY INVESTMENT BY INVESTMENT BY INVESTMENT BY SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION
Sell-side Sell-side Fund IV Fund IV Fund III
Confidential 4 2020 consumer subscription software perspectives
The impact of COVID and the subsequent global lockdown has allowed CSS businesses to Mental wellness apps flourish as consumers look for new ways to access content and services sessions up 66% y-o-y in May
. Vooks, a digital reading tool to encourage children to read, has seen tremendous growth as parents look for ways to entertain and educate their children at home. User growth accelerated from January levels and the company now has over 1 million teachers on the platform.
. Mental wellness apps saw an explosion of growth, according to Apptopia, as COVID caused stress while also restricting access to in-person therapy.
. With gyms closed, consumers quickly reached for new workout routines. Digital workout apps like Fiton saw paying users climb to over 100k, while demand for Peloton’s workout app and accompanying bike led to the stock doubling from February 2020.
Pressure on the Apple Store and resulting Apple tax intensifies
. Most consumers download and pay for CSS services through the two dominant App stores – Apple and Google. Apple and Google ensure that those apps are clear of malware and illegal content as well as provide distribution to billions of consumers, giving clear benefits to companies.
. However, in exchange for those services, Apple takes 30% of a first subscription and 15% of any renewals. Consequently, monopolistic complaints have been increasing and regulators are taking notice – specifically in Europe.
. The end result of any legal situation is uncertain – however, any changes to the pricing levels would be an immediate boost to CSS services, increasing profitability and generating billions of dollars to funnel into product development and consumer acquisition – fuelling growth.
. Apple’s recent legal battle with Epic games highlights the building tensions between the former partners. Education subscription services are rapidly gaining traction to improve the student experience
. Given the impact of COVID on in-person learning and classroom education, digital tools are flourishing after years of being an after thought for the majority of US schools.
. Monetization has remained a challenge given school budgets and IT restrictions (blocking YouTube).
. Recent deals have shown how CSS business models are breaking through that barrier, by selling to parents or IPO students directly: Capital Raised: $30m EV: $100m ‒ Chegg acquired Mathway, a math learning subscription tool, for $100m+ or 9x 2019 revenue Deal Date: 5/2020 Deal Date: 6/2020
‒ Quizlet raised $30m from General Atlantic at a $1bn valuation
Confidential Source: CapitalIQ, Pitchbook, GP Insights 5 INVESTORS REVIEW EACH CSS OPPORTUNITY WITH A FOCUS ON THESE KEY ATTRIBUTES CSS flywheel attributes to drive valuation
. A key valuation driver for investors is the concept of winner take all in CSS apps. If the company has the potential to dominate a niche or a broader market through network effects – investors will pay up.
. It is important for entrepreneurs to understand their competitive positioning and be able to define their market niche.
Recurring . Churn of consumer subscriptions . Intuitive UI paired with high quality will be higher than traditional Revenue content enterprise SaaS models . Design and UX is crucial to . LTV/CAC is a KPI to watch convincing the consumer of a Churn / Premium premium product Retention Content . Verticals are expanding as consumers become increasingly comfortable paying for apps CSS
. Monopoly in a small market Flywheel . User data is retained and can be lucrative Result of strong utilized within the app . Large TAM apps needs to Niche User Base performance Proprietary . Network effects from existing prove differentiation and vs. Large TAM in all the attributes Data user base, reinforcing moats (e.g. Fitness Apps) proprietary content and/or monetized data
Monetization & User Pricing Strategy Acquisition
. Creating a compelling benefit to . Efficient user acquisition and conversion with convert users from free to paid a viral element . Free to paid conversion rates are . Targeted ads, call to action, SEO, and critical KPIs sharing content has been proven successful
Confidential 6 Public investors’ excitement for CSS continues to grow
GP Bullhound has created the first consumer subscription software index to track how public CSS investments are valued
. The inaugural index includes Spotify, Match / IAC, Chegg, Intuit, Sirius XM, Shutterstock, Peloton, Gluu mobile, Netflix and DropBox. We expect to add additional companies to the index over the next 12 months (Bumble, etc).
. A few notes: − Two companies were added in early 2018 – Dropbox (March 2018), which debuted at 10.4x TEV / LTM Revenue, and Spotify (April 2018), which debuted at 5.4x − Netflix raised membership fees from $9.99 to $10.99 in Oct 2017, but still saw record-high subscribed users, beating Q4 2017 analyst estimates and boosting its share price
GP Bullhound Consumer Subscription Software Index
Source: Capital IQ, Pitchbook, company filings and publicly available data Confidential Note: Given the large market caps and high valuations of some of the businesses, the average of the EV / Rev multiples were used 7 Free+advertising vs. paid subscription – the ultimate test
Historically, investors have been conditioned to believe that consumers will always prefer a free option supported by ads vs. paying Paid vs. free . That was true in the early ages of the internet, but consumers are waking up to the pitfalls of ‘free’, including intrusive ads, the sale of personal data and poor product quality. content battles
. Pandora vs. Spotify is a great example of consumers preferring to pay for quality. Both started as free apps, using ads to generate revenue.
. However, that is where the story diverged. Spotify focused on the user experience and added features such vs. as downloading songs and playing music offline behind a subscription paywall.
. Consequently, Spotify’s amount of paid users quickly accelerated and revenue surged. Meanwhile, Pandora focused only on ads, was late to the subscription game and was ultimately sold off to Sirius. vs. 108
96 $10,855
71 vs. $7,591
48 $5,858 Spotify Paid vs. Subscription $4,556 launched 28 15 $3,288 8 $2,156 7 7 4 6 6 $1,409 $1,385 $1,467 $1,517 $1,607 $1,600 vs. $995 $921 $1,164 $425 $573 $655
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 vs. Pandora-Revenue ($bn) Spotify-Revenue ($bn) Pandora-Paid Users (m) Spotify-Paid Users (m)
Confidential Source: Capital IQ, Pitchbook, 2020 estimates from CapIQ 8 The importance of the paywall
Success in the CSS space is heavily dependent on the placement of the paywall within the customer’s experience
. Gaining users through a ‘freemium’ offering is critical to encouraging people to try a product; however, to effectively monetize them, they need to be converted into paying customers.
. That means correctly placing the paywall at the correct point to provide the maximum value to paying subscribers but enough functionality to explore the service before paying.
Free experiences Paid experiences
. One video story . Riding leaderboards
. One free class . Download maps
. Three free books . Meditation classes
. 7-day free trial . Wearables integration
Goals Goals
1. Gain the customer contact 1. Monetize and increase customer information, download app and engagement and provide unique enter credit card details value 2. Entice interest in the product 2. Encourage sharing and create User Generated Content (“UGC”) 3. Highlight features that are included in the paid version 3. Continuously improve product to attract adjacent users
Confidential 9 Overcoming churn to build the ‘Cohort Revenue Layer Cake’
. As entrepreneurs build out their companies, they can typically invest in growth marketing or product innovation to drive retention. Which one should garner the larger share of the investment dollars? CHEETAH Thoroughbred
. Growth: Adding 10k users a month leveraging targeted marketing through . Growth: Adding 30k users a month with celebrity promoters and heavy partnerships with limited social media marketing Instagram presence . Users are leveraging the data to manage their personal health information . Usage: Limited customization of the service and a priority on notifications to and have synched its data input into their fitness tracker consume content . Cohort Churn: Retains 68% of customers by month 6 and 50+% by month 12 . Cohort Churn: Retains 40% of customers by month 6 and only 10% by month 12 (effectively having the cohort become flat)
Throughbred Cheetah 200,000 200,000 New user 105k users marketing is cut 180,000 by180,000 month 6
160,000 160,000 Long
140,000 140,000 - term valuable term valuable customers
120,00047k users by 120,000 month 6
100,000 100,000
80,000 80,000
60,000 60,000
40,000 40,000
20,000 20,000
0 0
Cohort 1/1/2020 2/29/2020 3/31/2020 4/30/2020 5/31/2020 6/30/2020 7/31/2020 8/31/2020 9/30/2020 10/31/2020 11/30/2020 12/31/2020 1/31/2021 2/28/2021 3/31/2021 4/30/2021 5/31/2021 6/30/2021 Cohort 1/1/2020 2/29/2020 3/31/2020 4/30/2020 5/31/2020 6/30/2020 7/31/2020 8/31/2020 9/30/2020 10/31/2020 11/30/2020 12/31/2020 1/31/2021 2/28/2021 3/31/2021 4/30/2021 5/31/2021 6/30/2021 7/31/2021 8/31/2021 9/30/2021 10/31/2021 11/30/2021 12/31/2021 1/31/2022 2/28/2022 3/31/2022 4/30/2022 5/31/2022 6/30/2022 7/31/2022 8/31/2022 9/30/2022 10/31/2022 11/30/2022 12/31/2022 7/31/2021 8/31/2021 9/30/2021 10/31/2021 11/30/2021 12/31/2021 1/31/2022 2/28/2022 3/31/2022 4/30/2022 5/31/2022 6/30/2022 7/31/2022 8/31/2022 9/30/2022 10/31/2022 11/30/2022 12/31/2022 Focusing on engagement and mitigating churn will result in a better long-term business than high growth and flashy advertising
Confidential Source: GP Bullhound proprietary analysis 10 Consumer subscription landscape
Entertainment
Fitness / Outdoors
BEAR Prosumer / Online EdTech Tools
Personal Finance Family
Others Health / Mindfulness FLighty (Travel, Religion, etc.) Daily Bible
Confidential 11 Usage frequency / value received vs. pricing matrix
High $160
$144 $140
$120 $120 $120 e
pric $100 $100 $100 $100
$99 scription $90 $96 ub
$80 $80 $70 ual s ual $60 $60 $60 Ann
$47 $45 $36
$40 $30 $24 Low $10
Confidential Source: Public data and GP Bullhound research 12 CSS TAM EXCLUDES GAMING PURCHASES AS WELL AS ONE-TIME APP PURCHASES The CSS TAM is expected to top $150bn by 2022 CSS TAM Analysis (1) Increases in CSS app spend per person from <$10 currently to $100+ in the US and $35 globally $150bn in CSS Spend Annually by 2022 (3) 270m US Smartphones by 2022 3.5bn Global Smartphones by 2022 (2) Proliferation of consumer subscription models in daily life Sources: Statista, App Annie, GPB Research. Confidential (1)CSS TAM Analysis excludes mobile gaming spend (2)Global Smart phone users excludes US smart phones (3)$150bn in 2022 CSS spend equates to an average $100 annual spend per US smart phone user and $35 per global smart phone user 13 Section 2 Key CSS metrics & criteria for investors Confidential 14 WHILE THE METRICS MEASURED MAY BE SIMILAR, CSS BUSINESSES WILL HAVE A DIFFERENT DEFINITION OF SUCCESS Enterprise SaaS vs. consumer subscription Investors will look at many of the same investment metrics as SaaS Companies, but key nuances are important to recognize . Higher early user churn is typically the biggest hurdle for traditional investors to overcome, but entrepreneurs can highlight low CAC and long-term retention to illustrate the staying potential of their CSS business. Enterprise SaaS Consumer Subscription Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) Higher Churn Higher Expansion Revenue Higher Mass Market Potential Higher Acquisition Costs Higher Word of Mouth (WOM) Distribution Higher Content Sharing Higher Implementation Difficulty Higher Enterprise SaaS Consumer Subscription Confidential Source: CSS vs. Enterprise SaaS Framework developed in conjunction with Nicolas Wittenborn, who has written about the CSS market on Medium 15 CSS investor benchmarking criteria CSS investors will evaluate each business based on its own unique attributes as well as sub-industry nuances, but there are industry standard metrics that help investors differentiate good businesses from great businesses Annual User Growth Rate Gross Margins LTV / CAC <50% 100%+ <60%+ 90% <3x 6x 1st Pay Period Free to Paid Sales Efficiency Churn Rates Conversion Rate % Ratio >50% 20% <2% 10%+ <0.5x 2.0x Confidential 16 KEY CSS METRICS Investors dig into key CSS metrics and KPIs Investors will look at many of the same investment metrics as SaaS Companies, but key nuances are important to recognize . Investors will look closely at users – including the free users, active users (MAU’s) and most importantly the paid users Top-line Growth Metrics – . CSS top-line revenue can be measured in several ways: User Growth & Bookings – Cash Bookings: Amounts received each month in upfront subscription payments MRR / ARR – Monthly Recurring Revenues (MRR), Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), and GAAP revenue . Important to show continued efficient growth in top-line metrics . Customer Lifetime Value = Number of months or years the average customer stays with the company multiplied by the ARPU times the gross profit margin %. . CSS businesses have the unique attribute in that they typically have high churn after the first pay period or trial period ends. Companies typically see churn of first time users anywhere between 20–70% of total signups. − Consequently investors are looking for retention of users AFTER the first pay period - typically the 3rd, 6th or 12th month. High retention in those periods, indicate that users are discovering value in the service and are likely to be retained long term, building the ‘CSS LTV to CAC Ratio cohort layer cake’ − Great CSS businesses renew 50%+ of each annual cohort and 40% of Year 2 . Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) payback period is typically stated in months. Represents the time taken to fully pay back sales and marketing investment to acquire a single customer . CAC Payback of <1 month is critical to counter the high churn of initial users . 50%+ of users coming through organic channels is considered great . Free users: Number of users who are using the platform or business. Typicaly measured monthly or MAU’s Free to Paid Conversion . Paid users: Number of users who are paying for a subscription (typically monthly or annually) Rates . Free to Paid Conversion rate: The ratio of users who start as free users and convert to paying users. This number varies by industry and type of business as well as how the benefits behind the paywall are structured and accessed . The type of service or content being provided can vary between CSS industries. For example, exercise apps develop fitness classes at a high cost while a hiking app may be leveraging User Generated Content or UGC to enhance its offering. Gross Margins . Typically companies leveraging UGC have higher gross margins and a sustainable competitive advantage as their product and service is influenced and improved by the content and data users are generating . Investors have been proven willing to pay up for CSS businesses leveraging UGC to provide a unique service Free cash flow / . Growth is of paramount importance, with excess cash being used to fuel growth Burn rate . Important, therefore, to understand the cash burn in the business and planning for capital efficient hyper-growth Confidential 17 DEFINITIONS & CALCULATIONS Key CSS definitions & formulas Metric Definition Calculation . Normalized measurement of recurring revenue, most frequently MRR measured with a constant value in each month of the MRR = # of paying customers ∗ ARPA/month subscription period . All S&M expenses for new customers. Sometimes excludes Customer Acquisition Cost personnel management S&M costs &