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Future of Research on Catastrophic and Existential Risk
ORE Open Research Exeter TITLE Working together to face humanity's greatest threats: Introduction to The Future of Research in Catastrophic and Existential Risk AUTHORS Currie, AM; Ó hÉigeartaigh, S JOURNAL Futures DEPOSITED IN ORE 06 February 2019 This version available at http://hdl.handle.net/10871/35764 COPYRIGHT AND REUSE Open Research Exeter makes this work available in accordance with publisher policies. A NOTE ON VERSIONS The version presented here may differ from the published version. If citing, you are advised to consult the published version for pagination, volume/issue and date of publication Working together to face humanity’s greatest threats: Introduction to The Future of Research on Catastrophic and Existential Risk. Adrian Currie & Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh Penultimate Version, forthcoming in Futures Acknowledgements We would like to thank the authors of the papers in the special issue, as well as the referees who provided such constructive and useful feedback. We are grateful to the team at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk who organized the first Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk where many of the papers collected here were originally presented, and whose multi-disciplinary expertise was invaluable for making this special issue a reality. We’d like to thank Emma Bates, Simon Beard and Haydn Belfield for feedback on drafts. Ted Fuller, Futures’ Editor-in-Chief also provided invaluable guidance throughout. The Conference, and a number of the publications in this issue, were made possible through the support of a grant from the Templeton World Charity Foundation (TWCF); the conference was also supported by a supplementary grant from the Future of Life Institute. -
ARCHITECTS of INTELLIGENCE for Xiaoxiao, Elaine, Colin, and Tristan ARCHITECTS of INTELLIGENCE
MARTIN FORD ARCHITECTS OF INTELLIGENCE For Xiaoxiao, Elaine, Colin, and Tristan ARCHITECTS OF INTELLIGENCE THE TRUTH ABOUT AI FROM THE PEOPLE BUILDING IT MARTIN FORD ARCHITECTS OF INTELLIGENCE Copyright © 2018 Packt Publishing All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embedded in critical articles or reviews. Every effort has been made in the preparation of this book to ensure the accuracy of the information presented. However, the information contained in this book is sold without warranty, either express or implied. Neither the author, nor Packt Publishing or its dealers and distributors, will be held liable for any damages caused or alleged to have been caused directly or indirectly by this book. Packt Publishing has endeavored to provide trademark information about all of the companies and products mentioned in this book by the appropriate use of capitals. However, Packt Publishing cannot guarantee the accuracy of this information. Acquisition Editors: Ben Renow-Clarke Project Editor: Radhika Atitkar Content Development Editor: Alex Sorrentino Proofreader: Safis Editing Presentation Designer: Sandip Tadge Cover Designer: Clare Bowyer Production Editor: Amit Ramadas Marketing Manager: Rajveer Samra Editorial Director: Dominic Shakeshaft First published: November 2018 Production reference: 2201118 Published by Packt Publishing Ltd. Livery Place 35 Livery Street Birmingham B3 2PB, UK ISBN 978-1-78913-151-2 www.packt.com Contents Introduction ........................................................................ 1 A Brief Introduction to the Vocabulary of Artificial Intelligence .......10 How AI Systems Learn ........................................................11 Yoshua Bengio .....................................................................17 Stuart J. -
Global Catastrophic Risks 2016
Global Challenges Foundation Global Catastrophic Risks 2016 © Global Challenges Foundation/Global Priorities Project 2016 GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISKS 2016 THE GLOBAL CHALLENGES FOUNDATION works to raise awareness of the The views expressed in this report are those of the authors. Their Global Catastrophic Risks. Primarily focused on climate change, other en- statements are not necessarily endorsed by the affiliated organisations. vironmental degradation and politically motivated violence as well as how these threats are linked to poverty and rapid population growth. Against this Authors: background, the Foundation also works to both identify and stimulate the Owen Cotton-Barratt*† development of good proposals for a management model – a global gover- Sebastian Farquhar* nance – able to decrease – and at best eliminate – these risks. John Halstead* Stefan Schubert* THE GLOBAL PRIORITIES PROJECT helps decision-makers effectively prior- Andrew Snyder-Beattie† itise ways to do good. We achieve his both by advising decision-makers on programme evaluation methodology and by encouraging specific policies. We * = The Global Priorities Project are a collaboration between the Centre for Effective Altruism and the Future † = The Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford of Humanity Institute, part of the University of Oxford. Graphic design: Accomplice/Elinor Hägg Global Challenges Foundation in association with 4 Global Catastrophic Risks 2016 Global Catastrophic Risks 2016 5 Contents Definition: Global Foreword 8 Introduction 10 Catastrophic Risk Executive summary 12 1. An introduction to global catastrophic risks 20 – risk of events or 2. What are the most important global catastrophic risks? 28 Catastrophic climate change 30 processes that would Nuclear war 36 Natural pandemics 42 Exogenous risks 46 lead to the deaths of Emerging risks 52 Other risks and unknown risks 64 Our assessment of the risks 66 approximately a tenth of 3. -
Race in Academia
I, SOCIETY AI AND INEQUALITY: NEW DECADE, MORE CHALLENGES Mona Sloane, Ph.D. New York University [email protected] AI TECHNOLOGIES are becoming INTEGRAL to SOCIETY © DotEveryone SURVEILLANCE CAPITALISM TRADING in BEHAVIOURAL FUTURES © The Verge © The Innovation Scout TOTALIZING NARRATIVE of AI AI as a master technology = often either utopia or dystopia AI = human hubris? ”In 2014, the eminent scientists Stephen Hawking, Stuart Russell, Max Tegmark and Frank Wilczek wrote: ‘The potential benefits are huge; everything that civilisation has to offer is a product of human intelligence; we cannot predict what we might achieve when this intelligence is magnified by the tools that AI may provide, but the eradication of war, disease, and poverty would be high on anyone's list. Success in creating AI would be the biggest event in human history’.” Artificial General Intelligence? CORRELATION CAUSATION Race Race Gender Class INTERSECTIONAL INEQUALITY ETHICS EVERYWHERE EVERYWHERE EVERYWHERE EVERYWHERE EVERYWHERE EVERYWHERE EVERYWHERE ETHICS as POLICY APPROACH or as TECHNOLOGY APPROACH The ‘SOCIAL’ Problem ETHICS IS A SMOKESCREEN WHOSE HEAD – OR “INTELLIGENCE” – ARE TRYING TO MODEL, ANYWAY? THE FOUNDERS OF THE ”BIG 5 TECH COMPANIES”: AMAZON, FACEBOOK, ALPHABET, APPLE, MICROSOFT BIG TECH, BIG BUSINESS https://www.visualcapitalist.com/how-big-tech-makes-their-billions-2020/ 1956 DARTMOUTH CONFRENCE THE DIVERSITY ARGUMENT IS IMPORTANT. BUT IT IS INSUFFICIENT. EXTRACTION as a social super structure Prediction Dependency Extraction EXTRACTION Capitalism Racism White Supremacy Settler Colonialism Carcerality Heteronormativity … SCIENCE = ONTOLOGICAL AND EPISTEMOLOGICAL ENGINE Real world consequences of classification systems: racial classification in apartheid South Africa Ruha Benjamin, Alondra Nelson, Charlton McIlwain, Meredith Broussard, Andre Brock, Safiya Noble, Mutale Nkonde, Rediet Abebe, Timnit Gebru, Joy Buolamwini, Jessie Daniels, Sasha Costanza- Chock, Marie Hicks, Anna Lauren Hoffmann, Laura Forlano, Danya Glabau, Kadija Ferryman, Vincent Southerland – and more. -
The Time for a National Study on AI Is NOW
The Time For a National Study On AI is NOW Subscribe Past Issues Translate RSS View this email in your browser "I think we should be very careful about artificial intelligence. If I were to guess at what our biggest existential threat is, it’s probably that. With artificial intelligence, we are summoning the demon." Elon Musk, CEO, Tesla Motors & SpaceX ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE STUDY: AI TODAY, AI TOMORROW We are following up on our last message about a proposed National Study on Artificial Intelligence. We very much appreciate the responses and encouragement we have received, and welcome input and questions from any League and/or its members on this subject. http://mailchi.mp/35a449e1979f/the-time-for-a-national-study-on-ai-is-now?e=[UNIQID][12/20/2017 6:29:08 PM] The Time For a National Study On AI is NOW We believe that the pace of development of AI and the implications of its advancement make this an extremely timely subject. AI is becoming an important part of our society - from medical uses to transportation to banking to national defense. Putting off this study will put us behind in the progress being made in AI. We again request that your League consider supporting this study at your program planning meeting. The reason to propose this study now is because there are currently no positions that address many of the issues that fall under the umbrella of this relatively new and powerful technology. For several years now private groups and even countries (like Russia, China and Korea) have made it a priority to develop mechanical brains/computers that can function intelligently http://mailchi.mp/35a449e1979f/the-time-for-a-national-study-on-ai-is-now?e=[UNIQID][12/20/2017 6:29:08 PM] The Time For a National Study On AI is NOW and command robots or other machines to perform some task. -
Artificial Intelligence: a Roadmap for California
Artificial Intelligence: A Roadmap for California Report #245, November 2018 Milton Marks Commission on California State Government Organization and Economy Little Hoover Commission Dedicated to Promoting Economy and Efficiency Pedro Nava Chairman in California State Government Sean Varner Vice Chairman/ Subcommitee Member The Little Hoover Commission, formally known as the Milton Marks “Little Hoover” David Beier Commission on California State Government Organization and Economy, is an Subcommitee Chair independent state oversight agency created in 1962. By statute, the Commission Iveta Brigis is bipartisan and composed of nine public members, two senators and two Subcommitee Member assemblymembers. Cynthia Buiza In creating the Commission, the Legislature declared its purpose: Anthony Cannella Senator [T]o secure assistance for the Governor and itself in promoting Chad Mayes economy, efficiency and improved services in the transaction of Assemblymember the public business in the various departments, agencies and Don Perata instrumentalities of the executive branch of the state government, Bill Quirk and in making the operation of all state departments, agencies and Assemblymember instrumentalities, and all expenditures of public funds, more directly Richard Roth responsive to the wishes of the people as expressed by their elected Senator representatives. Cathy Schwamberger The Commission fulfills this charge by holding public hearings, consulting with experts Janna Sidley and listening to stakeholders. During the course of its studies, the Commission may Former Commissioners Who create subcommittees and conduct site visits. Served During The Study Joshua LaFarga The findings and recommendations of the Commission are submitted to the Governor and the Legislature for their consideration. Recommendations often take the form of Helen Iris Torres legislation, which the Commission supports through the legislative process. -
Arxiv:1202.4545V2 [Physics.Hist-Ph] 23 Aug 2012
The Relativity of Existence Stuart B. Heinrich [email protected] October 31, 2018 Abstract Despite the success of modern physics in formulating mathematical theories that can predict the outcome of experiments, we have made remarkably little progress towards answering the most fundamental question of: why is there a universe at all, as opposed to nothingness? In this paper, it is shown that this seemingly mind-boggling question has a simple logical answer if we accept that existence in the universe is nothing more than mathematical existence relative to the axioms of our universe. This premise is not baseless; it is shown here that there are indeed several independent strong logical arguments for why we should believe that mathematical existence is the only kind of existence. Moreover, it is shown that, under this premise, the answers to many other puzzling questions about our universe come almost immediately. Among these questions are: why is the universe apparently fine-tuned to be able to support life? Why are the laws of physics so elegant? Why do we have three dimensions of space and one of time, with approximate locality and causality at macroscopic scales? How can the universe be non-local and non-causal at the quantum scale? How can the laws of quantum mechanics rely on true randomness? 1 Introduction can seem astonishing that anything exists” [73, p.24]. Most physicists and cosmologists are equally perplexed. Over the course of modern history, we have seen advances in Richard Dawkins has called it a “searching question that biology, chemistry, physics and cosmology that have painted rightly calls for an explanatory answer” [26, p.155], and Sam an ever-clearer picture of how we came to exist in this uni- Harris says that “any intellectually honest person will admit verse. -
NATO Legal Gazette Issue 41
Issue 41 October 2020 Legal Gazette Legal Aspects of Innovation 1 PAGE 2 NATO LEGAL GAZETTE, Issue 41 Contents Introduction, by Sherrod Lewis Bumgardner……………………………...….……......... 4 Preface, by Geoffrey S. Corn and Gary Corn..……………………………………... 6 Innovation for peaceful purposes only: Where there is the will, there is ITER, by Antoaneta Boeva …………………………………………………………………………… 14 Partnership, Not Pivot: NATO’s Legal Answer to the China Question, by Lauren Brown ………………………………………………………………………………………... 27 Responsibility, Liability and Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems, by Theodora Vassilika Ogden ………………………………………………………………. 46 Autonomous Weapon Systems: A Pragmatic Approach to an Emerging Capability, by Major Gregg F. Curley..………………………………………………… 61 U.S. Export Controls: The Future of Disruptive Technologies, by Christopher Timura, Judith Alison Lee, R.L. Pratt and Scott Toussaint …………………………... 96 The Relevance and Benefits of Integrated Compliance Strategy (ICS) for NATO Defence Forces, by Martijn Antzoulatos-Borgstein …………………..…...…. 125 Legal Operations: The Use of Law as an Instrument of Power in the Context of Hybrid Threats and Strategic Competition, by Rodrigo Vázquez Benítez……….. 138 The Road to Hell is Paved with Bad Contractors: Vendor Vetting is a Better Path, by Brett Sander ……………………………………………………………………… 145 Publisher: Monte DeBoer, ACT Legal Advisor Editor-in-Chief: Sherrod Lewis Bumgardner, ACT SEE Legal Advisor Editors: Mette Prassé Hartov, HQ SACT Deputy Legal Advisor Galateia Gialitaki, ACT SEE Legal Assistant Copy Editors: Robert ‘Butch’Bracknell, HQ SACT Staff Legal Advisor Col Xavier Labarriere, HQ SACT Staff Legal Advisor Miles S. Porter, HQ SACT Legal Extern Malia Kenza Chenaoui, ACT SEE Legal Extern Copy Proofreader: Caitlin Fendon, HQ SACT Legal Intern Lola Chanfreau, ACT SEE Legal Extern 2 NATO LEGAL GAZETTE, Issue 41 PAGE 3 Disclaimer: The NATO Legal Gazette is produced and published by Headquarters Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (HQ SACT). -
Download Global Catastrophic Risks 2020
Global Catastrophic Risks 2020 Global Catastrophic Risks 2020 INTRODUCTION GLOBAL CHALLENGES FOUNDATION (GCF) ANNUAL REPORT: GCF & THOUGHT LEADERS SHARING WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ON GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISKS 2020 The views expressed in this report are those of the authors. Their statements are not necessarily endorsed by the affiliated organisations or the Global Challenges Foundation. ANNUAL REPORT TEAM Ulrika Westin, editor-in-chief Waldemar Ingdahl, researcher Victoria Wariaro, coordinator Weber Shandwick, creative director and graphic design. CONTRIBUTORS Kennette Benedict Senior Advisor, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Angela Kane Senior Fellow, Vienna Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation; visiting Professor, Sciences Po Paris; former High Representative for Disarmament Affairs at the United Nations Joana Castro Pereira Postdoctoral Researcher at Portuguese Institute of International Relations, NOVA University of Lisbon Philip Osano Research Fellow, Natural Resources and Ecosystems, Stockholm Environment Institute David Heymann Head and Senior Fellow, Centre on Global Health Security, Chatham House, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Romana Kofler, United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs Lindley Johnson, NASA Planetary Defense Officer and Program Executive of the Planetary Defense Coordination Office Gerhard Drolshagen, University of Oldenburg and the European Space Agency Stephen Sparks Professor, School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol Ariel Conn Founder and -
Dissolving the Fermi Paradox), and Quite Likely Once We Account for the Fermi Observation
Dissolving the Fermi Paradox Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler and Toby Ord Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University June 8, 2018 Abstract The Fermi paradox is the conflict between an expectation of a high ex ante probability of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe and the apparently lifeless universe we in fact observe. The expectation that the universe should be teeming with intelligent life is linked to models like the Drake equation, which suggest that even if the probability of intelligent life developing at a given site is small, the sheer multitude of possible sites should nonetheless yield a large number of potentially observable civilizations. We show that this conflict arises from the use of Drake-like equations, which implicitly assume certainty regarding highly uncertain parameters. We examine these parameters, incorporating models of chem- ical and genetic transitions on paths to the origin of life, and show that extant scientific knowledge corresponds to uncertainties that span multi- ple orders of magnitude. This makes a stark difference. When the model is recast to represent realistic distributions of uncertainty, we find a sub- stantial ex ante probability of there being no other intelligent life in our observable universe, and thus that there should be little surprise when we fail to detect any signs of it. This result dissolves the Fermi paradox, and in doing so removes any need to invoke speculative mechanisms by which civilizations would inevitably fail to have observable effects upon the universe. 1 Introduction While working at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in 1950, Enrico Fermi famously asked his colleagues: ”Where are they?” [1]. -
A R E S E a R C H Agenda
Cooperation, Conflict, and Transformative Artificial Intelligence — A RESEARCH AGENDA Jesse Clifton — LONGTERMRISK.ORG March 2020 First draft: December 2019 Contents 1 Introduction 2 1.1 Cooperation failure: models and examples . .3 1.2 Outline of the agenda . .5 2 AI strategy and governance 8 2.1 Polarity and transition scenarios . .8 2.2 Commitment and transparency . .8 2.3 AI misalignment scenarios . 10 2.4 Other directions . 10 2.5 Potential downsides of research on cooperation failures . 11 3 Credibility 12 3.1 Commitment capabilities . 13 3.2 Open-source game theory . 13 4 Peaceful bargaining mechanisms 16 4.1 Rational crisis bargaining . 16 4.2 Surrogate goals . 18 5 Contemporary AI architectures 21 5.1 Learning to solve social dilemmas . 21 5.2 Multi-agent training . 24 5.3 Decision theory . 25 6 Humans in the loop 27 6.1 Behavioral game theory . 27 6.2 AI delegates . 28 7 Foundations of rational agency 30 7.1 Bounded decision theory . 30 7.2 Acausal reasoning . 31 8 Acknowledgements 35 1 1 Introduction Transformative artificial intelligence (TAI) may be a key factor in the long-run trajec- tory of civilization. A growing interdisciplinary community has begun to study how the development of TAI can be made safe and beneficial to sentient life (Bostrom, 2014; Russell et al., 2015; OpenAI, 2018; Ortega and Maini, 2018; Dafoe, 2018). We present a research agenda for advancing a critical component of this effort: preventing catastrophic failures of cooperation among TAI systems. By cooperation failures we refer to a broad class of potentially-catastrophic inefficiencies in interactions among TAI-enabled actors. -
Beneficial AI 2017
Beneficial AI 2017 Participants & Attendees 1 Anthony Aguirre is a Professor of Physics at the University of California, Santa Cruz. He has worked on a wide variety of topics in theoretical cosmology and fundamental physics, including inflation, black holes, quantum theory, and information theory. He also has strong interest in science outreach, and has appeared in numerous science documentaries. He is a co-founder of the Future of Life Institute, the Foundational Questions Institute, and Metaculus (http://www.metaculus.com/). Sam Altman is president of Y Combinator and was the cofounder of Loopt, a location-based social networking app. He also co-founded OpenAI with Elon Musk. Sam has invested in over 1,000 companies. Dario Amodei is the co-author of the recent paper Concrete Problems in AI Safety, which outlines a pragmatic and empirical approach to making AI systems safe. Dario is currently a research scientist at OpenAI, and prior to that worked at Google and Baidu. Dario also helped to lead the project that developed Deep Speech 2, which was named one of 10 “Breakthrough Technologies of 2016” by MIT Technology Review. Dario holds a PhD in physics from Princeton University, where he was awarded the Hertz Foundation doctoral thesis prize. Amara Angelica is Research Director for Ray Kurzweil, responsible for books, charts, and special projects. Amara’s background is in aerospace engineering, in electronic warfare, electronic intelligence, human factors, and computer systems analysis areas. A co-founder and initial Academic Model/Curriculum Lead for Singularity University, she was formerly on the board of directors of the National Space Society, is a member of the Space Development Steering Committee, and is a professional member of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).