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3.1 Porter Diamond Model International Business Master Thesis No 2001:49 EVALUATING AND PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF A PROTECTED INDUSTRY THE CASE OF THE MALAYSIAN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY ERIC BILLETTE AND ZAC RYAN Graduate Business School School of Economics and Commercial Law Göteborg University ISSN 1403-851X Printed by Elanders Novum AB ABSTRACT Over the last 20 years, the automotive industry in Malaysia has been heavily protected as a result of high tariff and non tariff barriers imposed by the government. Protectionism has enabled the development of national motor vehicle manufacturers as well as national automotive component suppliers. The barriers to trade effectively shielded national companies from foreign competition. Not surprising that this has led to dominance of the automotive industry by national companies, however without strong foreign competitors, the efficiency of national auto manufacturers and suppliers remains low. This low efficiency and the challenges and threats related to global competition have led the government to maintain its protectionist regimes into the 21st century. On the other hand, pressure from sources promoting globalization and free-trade such as AFTA and the WTO are mounting and the government may soon be forced to make some changes to its current regime. This thesis is meant to provide the reader with a broad picture of the dynamic Malaysian automotive industry’s current situation, the forces that influence it, and especially, the future situation that should prevail and its effect on the dimensions of the industry. We developed two models in this research in order to assist us through our task. Those models were named the protected industry model and the anticipating the future of an industry (AFI) model. According to our findings, we judge that the government will timidly begin reduce its grasp over the automotive industry by reducing the level of non-tariffs barriers especially those related to components manufacturers. This will allow the national car manufacturers to enjoy a high level of protection still for some years while keeping foreign competition aside for additional years. Components manufacturers will however have to cope with the situation and make their way through a more challenging and competitive market. This could ultimately be done with the assistance of foreign companies. All in all, the customers will be the ones that will have to be the most patient since high prices and a lower level of quality are all that they can expect for the next five years. Keywords: Malaysia, automotive industry, business environment, protected industry, government, scenarios, future, Proton ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This thesis marks the conclusion of a year and a half Integrated Master’s program in International Business at the School of Economics and Commercial Law in Göteborg, Sweden. This experience in Sweden has been very challenging and enjoyable. We would like to acknowledge those persons that have contributed to the results of this thesis in various ways. First of all the thesis would not have been possible without the support of Mr. Allan Bell, ThyssenKrupp Representative for Malaysia. We would like to extend our warmest thanks to Mr. Bell who provided us with the opportunity to travel to and live in Malaysia for the entire summer in order to complete research on the automotive industry. Despite his extremely busy schedule, Mr. Bell was able to provide us with excellent guidance throughout the entire duration of our stay. Mr. Bell also supported us by offering valuable advice, critical reflections, and many important contacts within the auto industry. Furthermore, we would like to express our appreciation towards all of the persons who agreed to convene with us to discuss the automotive industry. There are too many to mention but rest assured that your hospitality, friendliness, and openness will not be forgotten. Meeting with these persons has greatly heightened the quality of the data contained in this thesis. Finally, we would like to thank our thesis supervisors, Professor Hans Jansson and Professor Claes-Göran Alvstam. We would have been lost without their insightful comments and feedback. Göteborg, December 6th, 2001 Zac Ryan Eric Billette TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................. 1 1.1 BACKGROUND................................................................................................ 1 1.1.1 Thesis Topic ..................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 Theories............................................................................................................................. 2 1.1.3 Global Automotive Industry......................................................................................... 3 1.1.4 Research Background ..................................................................................................... 4 1.2 PROBLEM DEFINITION ................................................................................. 4 1.2.1 Problem Background & Discussion ............................................................................ 4 1.2.2 Problem Statement.......................................................................................................... 5 1.2.3 Research Problems and Areas of Investigation ......................................................... 5 1.2.4 Purpose.............................................................................................................................. 6 1.3 RESEARCH DELIMITATIONS ......................................................................... 6 1.4 OUR EXEMPLAR COMPANY – THYSSENKRUPP AG ................................. 7 1.5 ACRONYMS.................................................................................................... 10 1.6 OUTLINE OF THE THESIS............................................................................ 11 2 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................... 13 2.1 THE RESEARCH APPROACH........................................................................ 13 2.1.1 Research Strategy........................................................................................................... 13 2.1.2 Qualitative vs Quantitative Research......................................................................... 14 2.1.3 Research Design ............................................................................................................ 15 2.1.4 Case Study Design......................................................................................................... 15 2.1.5 Scientific Approach....................................................................................................... 17 2.2 DATA COLLECTION..................................................................................... 18 2.2.1 Interviews........................................................................................................................ 18 2.2.2 Observation....................................................................................................................19 2.2.3 Documentation.............................................................................................................. 19 2.2.4 Principles of Data Collection ...................................................................................... 20 2.3 RESEARCH ETHICS....................................................................................... 20 2.4 QUALITY OF THE RESEARCH...................................................................... 21 2.4.1 Validity............................................................................................................................. 21 2.4.2 Reliability......................................................................................................................... 23 2.5 DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS ..................................................... 24 3 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK.................................................................. 25 3.1 PORTER DIAMOND MODEL ....................................................................... 25 3.1.1 Factor Conditions.......................................................................................................... 26 3.1.2 Demand Conditions...................................................................................................... 27 3.1.3 Related and Supporting Industries............................................................................. 28 3.1.4 Firm Structure, Strategy, and Rivalry......................................................................... 29 3.1.5 Government ................................................................................................................... 29 3.1.6 Chance............................................................................................................................. 30 3.2 JANSSON’S INSTITUTIONS MODEL............................................................. 30 3.2.1 The Rationale behind the Model ................................................................................ 30 3.2.2 Levels of Institutions .................................................................................................... 31 3.2.3 Institutional Analysis..................................................................................................... 32 3.3 GRANT’S INDUSTRY LIFE CYCLE
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