Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2008
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West Midlands West Housing Market Area (Shropshire & Herefordshire) Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2008 Final Report June 2008 WEST MIDLANDS WEST HOUSING MARKET AREA STRATEGIC HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT CONTENTS FOREWORD 9 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11 1 APPROACH 26 1.1 Purpose and objectives of the study 26 1.2 Methodology 27 1.3 Report structure 29 2 POLICY CONTEXT 30 2.1 Planning Policy Statement 3 (PPS3): Housing 30 2.2 Strategic Housing Market Assessments 32 2.3 Housing Green Paper 34 2.4 Regional Housing Strategy 36 2.5 Regional Spatial Strategy 38 2.6 West Midlands Economic Strategy 39 2.7 New Growth Points 40 3 THE DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC CONTEXT 44 3.1 Introduction 44 3.2 Population change 44 3.3 Migration 47 3.4 Household types and tenure 54 3.5 Black and minority ethnic communities 58 3.6 International migration 59 3.7 Economic performance 62 3.8 Employment and earnings 64 4 THE HOUSING STOCK 69 4.1 Introduction 69 print: 27-Jun-08 1 ref: z:\projects\west shma\reports\west final report v4.0.doc 4.2 Dwelling type, size and tenure 70 4.3 Stock condition 77 4.4 Shared housing and communal establishments 83 4.5 Over-crowding and under occupation 84 4.6 Vacancy and low demand 85 5 THE ACTIVE MARKET 87 5.1 Introduction 87 5.2 The cost of housing for sale 87 5.3 Mean house price by ward 92 5.4 House price change 96 5.5 Sales and turnover 105 5.6 The cost of private rented housing 106 5.7 The cost of social rented housing 108 5.8 Entry-level housing 110 5.9 Affordability of housing for sale 111 5.10 Affordability of private rented housing 114 6 THE FUTURE HOUSING MARKET 115 6.1 Market commentary 115 6.2 Population and household change 116 6.3 Housing demand 119 6.4 Newly arising need 121 6.5 Future household types 122 6.6 Implications for the future housing market 125 7 CURRENT HOUSING NEED 127 7.1 Assessing the need for affordable housing 127 7.2 Defining housing need and unsuitable housing 127 7.3 Homelessness 130 7.4 Homeless households and those in temporary accommodation 132 7.5 Over-crowding and concealed households 133 7.6 Other groups at step 1.3 135 7.7 Total current housing need (gross per year) 136 8 FUTURE HOUSING NEED 138 8.1 New household formation 138 8.2 Newly forming households unable to buy or rent in the market 140 8.3 Existing households falling into need 141 8.4 Total newly arising housing need 141 2 9 AFFORDABLE HOUSING SUPPLY 143 9.1 Affordable dwellings occupied by households in need 143 9.2 Surplus stock 144 9.3 Committed supply of new affordable units 144 9.4 Units to be taken out of management 145 9.5 Total affordable housing stock available 145 9.6 Future annual supply of social re-lets (net) 146 9.7 Future annual supply of intermediate affordable housing 147 9.8 Future annual supply of affordable housing units 147 10 HOUSING REQUIREMENTS OF SPECIFIC HOUSEHOLD GROUPS 148 10.1 Introduction 148 10.2 Older people 148 10.3 Households with specific needs 157 10.4 Homeless people 161 10.5 The housing requirements of rural communities 168 11 BRINGING THE EVIDENCE TOGETHER 177 11.1 Housing market sectors in the West Housing Market Area 177 11.2 Whitchurch 180 11.3 Market Drayton 181 11.4 North Shropshire Rural 182 11.5 Ellesmere & Wem 183 11.6 Oswestry Town 184 11.7 Oswestry Rural 185 11.8 Hordley, Baschurch & Kinnerley 186 11.9 Shrewsbury Town 187 11.10 Shrewsbury Rural 188 11.11 Bridgnorth, Albrighton, Broseley & Shifnal 189 11.12 Ludlow & rural 190 11.13 Central Shropshire 191 11.14 Kington 192 11.15 Golden Valley 193 11.16 Leominster 194 11.17 Bromyard 195 11.18 Ledbury 196 11.19 Ross-on-Wye 197 11.20 Hereford 198 11.21 Housing requirements of households in need 199 11.22 Targets for affordable housing 201 print: 27-Jun-08 3 ref: z:\projects\west shma\reports\west final report v4.0.doc 11.23 Intermediate tenures 203 11.24 Balancing the housing market 209 11.25 Size requirements for affordable housing 210 12 RECOMMENDATIONS 213 APPENDIX – STAKEHOLDER SEMINAR 217 4 TABLES Table 1: Core Outputs...........................................................................................................................34 Table 2: Process Checklist ...................................................................................................................34 Table 3: West Midlands Housing Market Areas....................................................................................36 Table 4: Summary of demographic and economic data ......................................................................44 Table 5: Population change 1991-2001 (thousands)............................................................................46 Table 6: Population change 2001-2006 (thousands)............................................................................47 Table 7: Household tenure by district ...................................................................................................55 Table 8: Household composition by tenure –% ....................................................................................56 Table 9: Population by age % ...............................................................................................................57 Table 10: Ethnicity % ............................................................................................................................59 Table 11: NI Number allocations to overseas nationals 2005/06 .........................................................60 Table 12: Main occupations of A8 arrivals............................................................................................61 Table 13: Working age population (%) .................................................................................................65 Table 14: Employment by occupation (%) ............................................................................................66 Table 15: Gross weekly pay for full-time workers by residence and workplace (£) .............................67 Table 16: Mean, median and percentile annual earnings (£) 2004-2006.............................................68 Table 17: Summary of housing stock datasets ....................................................................................69 Table 18: Housing stock profile.............................................................................................................72 Table 19: Dwelling type by tenure.........................................................................................................73 Table 20: Breakdown of owner occupation...........................................................................................74 Table 21: Dwelling type by tenure 1991 ...............................................................................................76 Table 22: Size of dwellings ...................................................................................................................77 Table 23: Unfit dwellings.......................................................................................................................78 Table 24: Cost of making fit unfit private sector....................................................................................79 Table 25: Non decent dwellings by tenure............................................................................................80 Table 26: Private sector renewal assistance ........................................................................................82 Table 27: Dwellings with Category 1 Hazards HHSRS ........................................................................83 Table 28: Communal establishments ...................................................................................................83 Table 29: Number of houses in multiple occupation.............................................................................84 Table 30: Occupancy rating (%) ...........................................................................................................85 Table 31: Private sector vacancy and low demand (%) .......................................................................85 Table 32: Social sector vacancy, low demand and hard to let (%)......................................................86 Table 33: Summary of active market datasets .....................................................................................87 Table 34: Mean house price 2006/7 .....................................................................................................88 Table 35: Mean house price and five-year change ..............................................................................97 Table 36: Mean annual house price change 2003-2006 ......................................................................99 Table 37: House price and price ratio change by type 2002-06.........................................................104 Table 38: Volume of sales by property type for period 2001 to 2006 (%) ..........................................105 Table 39: Turnover by property type 2006 (%) ...................................................................................106 Table 40: Private sector rents per week 2005/6 .................................................................................107 Table 41: Change in social housing rents per week 1997-2006 ........................................................109 Table 42: Lower quartile property prices ............................................................................................111 Table 43: Required gross income for entry-level mortgage (£) ..........................................................112