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Executive Housing Market Report RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market September 2010 Prepared for Arc4 contact Joanne Tyzzer, Darren Jones, Brian Davies David Cumberland / North Staffordshire Regeneration Ross Tolmie-Thomson Partnership Arc4 Ltd Renew North Staffordshire Beehive Mill Stoke City Council Jersey Street Ancoats Manchester M4 6JG email: [email protected] Tel +44 (0) 161 228 1689 email [email protected] [email protected] arc 4 Beehive Mill Jersey Street Ancoats Manchester M4 6JG T: 0161 228 1689 F: 0161 228 6514 Email: [email protected] Website: www.arc4.co.uk Contents arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010 2 of 80 Section 1.0 Report Overview 4 Introduction 4 Section 2.0 Methodology 7 Current Executive Housing Market 8 Future Executive Housing Market 9 Research Framework 9 Section 3.0 Executive Housing Market Definition 12 Section 4.0 Executive Housing Market Assessment 14 Current Executive Housing Market 14 Current high-end property market context 17 Wider Housing Reference Area 22 Section 5.0 Strategic Policy context for housing delivery 25 Section 6.0 Demand for Executive Housing 31 Household income and ACORN profiles 31 Demographic and population projections 33 Changes in employment and incomes 37 Section 7.0 Primary Fieldwork 38 Estate agent testimonies 38 Focus group attitudes and aspirations 43 Developer perceptions 45 Section 8.0 Current supply of new build executive housing 48 Section 9.0 Developing an executive housing market 50 Section 10.0 Conclusions 56 Including recommendations 63 Appendices 65 arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010 3 of 80 Section 1 Report overview 1.1 Introduction 1.1.1 Arc4 Ltd. has been commissioned by RENEW and NSRP to undertake an assessment of the Executive Housing Market (EHM) in the North Staffordshire regeneration Partnership (NSRP) area, including the local authorities of Stoke, Newcastle-under-Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands. The assessment framework is split into two distinctive areas: a review of the current EHM in terms of housing supply and demand profiles, then secondly an assessment of the future EHM in terms of market demand and developer potential. Stakeholder and consumer consultation has been an important component of this research, which ensures a wide range of views and expertise is captured in the research. 1.1.2 Under the aegis of the NSRP Business Plan, there is a priority within the housing and regeneration frameworks to diversify the stock profile. Limited supply of high value executive housing assets (properties in the higher Council Tax bands G and H) is weakening the housing offer. Testing the housing markets appetite for increasing the supply of properties in tax bands E to H will feature heavily in the assessment process. 1.1.3 In summary this research • Provides a definition of an executive housing market and the attributes of an exclusive housing product • Explores the size and profiles of the current executive housing market in North Staffordshire • Provides material on future executive housing aspirations based on market testing of the demand group and housing agents • Reviews the potential for future executive housing delivery across the district based on developer and local planning authority perspectives. 1.1.4 There is a requirement to produce an evidence-based, focussed review of opportunities and identify issues pertaining to the suitability of developing executive housing on land both owned and identified with potential for this supply type. 1.1.5 The adopted Newcastle-under-Lyme and Stoke-on-Trent Core Spatial Strategy outlines that in order to achieve the strategic aims both regionally and sub-regionally, substantial restructuring of the employment and residential offer in North Staffordshire is required. Although the Regional Spatial Strategy has been abolished, Stoke City Council are still working to the same housing growth numbers as before, since they have been included within the Core Strategy and were arrived at through thorough research of the evidence base. 1.1.6 The latest available indicators suggest that the existing provision for the executive market is limited in North Staffordshire, specifically so within the city of Stoke-on-Trent. As outlined by the RENEW North Staffordshire Regeneration Partnership Business Plan 2008 – 2011, the sub region has a constrained supply of high-end market housing and the imbalance of housing supply is closely allied to the socio-economic profile and under performance of the area in retaining and attracting economically independent households. arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010 4 of 80 1.1.7 The latest Strategic Housing Market Assessment identified Stoke-on-Trent as a unique market in continuing to suffer population loss, in particular to neighbouring authorities Newcastle-under-Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands (SHMA 2008). A contributory factor is the limited residential offer across the spectrum of the housing market, one of the main SHMA recommendations identifying the requirement for ‘more executive housing in the housing sectors shown to be disproportionately dominated by terraced dwellings’. 1.1.8 One of the principal objectives of the RENEW North Staffordshire Regeneration Partnership Business Plan 2008 – 2011 in recognising the limited housing choice, is to provide a diversified residential offer. Providing the right type of dwellings, in the right location and environment will be key to addressing and reversing the trend of net population loss. An important factor for competitiveness in the knowledge economy is the extent to which places have a skilled, creative and entrepreneurial workforce. Employers will choose to locate partly on the basis of where this workforce is located and therefore the residential offer must be closely aligned with the aspirations of economically independent households. 1.1.9 We note that ‘top end of the market’ executive housing can also have a further significant impact on the economy. The evidence suggests that residents of executive housing include a high proportion of entrepreneurs, with a consequent high level of business start-ups. This leads to establishment of new employment opportunities, often in locations convenient to the home of the entrepreneur. 1.1.10 One of the NSRP Business Plan priorities, in providing a portfolio of high quality/specification detached houses or luxury apartments, seeks to meet the aspirations of existing and future residents on higher incomes, both in the interests of greater social inclusivity and to remove a barrier to the pursuit of economic prosperity. A broader housing choice is essential to accommodate the changing aspirations of the resident population and to retain graduates and attract new economically active households into the area. 1.1.11 Current housing supply throughout areas of Stoke-on-Trent, Newcastle-under-Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands, reflect an earlier pattern of economic structure and development that does not meet the current, nor future needs, for a balance of dwellings types and choice and the need to develop mixed communities. 1.1.12 Much of the offer within the constituent authorities competes for skilled workforce and economically independent households with a limited residential offer. Issues of deprivation, worklessness and social exclusion are inextricably linked with poor quality housing and less desirable environments. Therefore, an improved residential offer and quality of place is essential to the creation of mixed and balanced communities and fundamental to improving the economic performance of the area (RENEW NSPR BP). 1.1.13 Creating sustainable, mixed communities coupled with high design quality and place making is a key part of the Government’s approach to housing and planning policy going forward. Providing a quality residential offer is not about ‘gentrification’ alone, but about creating quality places through new development and interventions in existing neighbourhoods to provide a range of house types and tenures. It is the aim of RENEW and the NSRP that opportunities are identified to address the need for provision of a broader mix of housing supply across the intervention areas in the sub region. 1.1.14 This research provides an intelligence report examining the issues around the provision of executive housing and developing a meaningful definition framed within a North Staffordshire context. The report provides an examination of both the local and regional housing market (in arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010 5 of 80 terms of depth of the potential market) and the planning supply context for the provision of executive housing. The report focuses in particular at recent experience of developing executive housing framed in the context of the local potential market demand, competing sites, migration, travel to work patterns, sales performance and land/site supply. 1.1.15 Our perspective is holistic. We do not see development and the supply of housing in isolation. As such, we have examined the objectives of recent spatial planning policy at both the (now abolished) Regional Spatial Strategy and emerging Local Development Framework levels. This research paper looks to test the potential demand and requirement for larger executive developments within North Staffordshire. 1.1.16 Much has changed in the national and regional arenas since this report was commissioned, including the election of the Coalition Government and its abolition of whole swathes of regional governance including
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