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Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Investments in South Asia's Electric

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Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Investments in South Asia's Electric Report No. 56849-SAS IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS ON INVESTMENTS IN SOUTH ASIA’S Public Disclosure Authorized ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INDIA ✦ PAKISTAN ✦ BANGLADESH Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized SOUTH ASIA GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS REPORT THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, NW WASHINGTON, DC 20433 Report No. 56849-SAS FINAL REPORT FOR INDIA, PAKISTAN, AND BANGLADESH The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Investments in the Electric Power Sector The Experience of India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh Mohua Mukherjee and Kumar V Pratap Co-Editors A co-publication of the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) and the World Bank i TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents……………………………………………………………………………….. ii Preface ………………………………………………………………………………………….. x Acknowledgements ………………………………………………………………….………… xi List of Abbreviations……………………………………………………………………………. xii Executive Summary………………………………………………………………..……………. xx CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ………………………………………….. 1 1. Financing Challenges in the South Asian Power Sector…………………………………. 3 2. Main Sources of Finance for the Power Sector and the Impact of the Crisis on each of them… 4 3. The Way Forward……………………………………………………………………………. 7 3.1 India……………………………………………………………………………………… 7 3.2 Pakistan………………………………………………………………………………….. 7 3.3 Bangladesh………………………………………………………………………………. 9 CHAPTER 2: INDIA……………………………………………………….. 13 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................. 14 1.1 Background to the Assignment ................................................................................................... 14 1.2 Objectives of the Assignment ..................................................................................................... 15 1.3 Focus Period for analysing the impact of Global Financial Crisis .......................................... 15 1.4 About the Report ............................................................................................................................ 16 2 SECTORAL CONTEXT OF ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR IN INDIA............................. 17 2.1 Evolution of India’s Electric Power Infrastructure Sector................. ................. ................. 17 2.2 Regulatory & Policy Framework................. ................. ................. ................. ................. 19 2.3 Institutional Framework ................................. ................. ................. ................. 20 2.4 Ownership Structure in India’s Electric Power Infrastructure Sector................. 20 2.5 Present Status of Electric Power Infrastructure ........... ................. ................. 23 2.6 Implementation of open access at transmission and distribution level................. ................. 29 2.7 Financing challenges in Electric Power Infrastructure................. ................. ................. 29 2.8 Realizable Pipeline and Debt Funding Gap ................. ................. ................. 29 2.9 Outlook ............................................................................... ................. ................. 30 3 GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ITS OVERALL IMPACT ON INDIA……….. 31 3.1 Impact of Global Financial Crisis on India ........................................ ............ 31 3.2 India’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis .............................................. 32 3.3 India’s resilience and bounce-back .................................................................... 34 4 IMPACT OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS ON INVESTMENTS IN INDIAN ELECTRIC POWER INFRASTRUCTURE......................................................................................................................35 4.1 Approach Adopted for Analysis of Impact of the Global Financial Crisis................. 35 4.2 Analysis of the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis .......................... .......... 36 ii 4.3 Synthesis and Conclusion ................................................................................. ... 66 5 ANNEXES.................................................................................................................... ........................... 71 5.1 Annexure 1: Scope of Work for the Assignment ................................. ........... 72 5.2 Annexure 2: Evolution of India’s Electric Power Infrastructure .............. .... 75 5.3 Annexure 3: Summary of Key Regulations and Policies Governing the Sector.......... 78 5.4 Annexure 4: Realizable Pipeline and Funding Gap .................................... ..... 83 5.5 Annexure 5 - Global financial crisis and its overall impact on India ....... ..... 91 5.6 Annexure 6: Analysis of projects planned for commissioning during 11th Five Year Plan... 102 CHAPTER 3: PAKISTAN ……………………………………………………. 104 1 POWER SECTOR OVERVIEW................................................................................................. ....... 105 1.1 Demand has outpaced supply .................................................................................................... 106 1.2 Installed capacity high, but generation remains low............................................................... 106 1.3 GoP plans 20,000 MW additional power by 2020.................................................................. 107 1.4 Fuel mix skewed to thermals...................................................................................................... 107 1.5 RPPs face road blocks.................................................................................................................. 109 1.6 Government continues with its RPP program.......................................................................... 110 1.7 Major Power Sector players........................................................................................................... 110 2 FINANCING THE POWER SECTOR CAPACITY EXPANSION PLAN....................... 111 2.1 Investment Requirement for the Vision 2020 Program…................................................... 111 2.2 Financing of Investment requirements through Private Participation ………………... 117 3. IMPACT OF THE 2008 GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS ON INVESTMENTS IN PAKISTAN’S POWER SECTOR......................................................................................................... 123 3.1 Supply side response................................................................................................................ 125 3.2 Multilateral Institutions............................................................................................................. 127 3.3 Public Sector Financing........................................................................................................... 128 3.4 Commercial Banks.................................................................................................................... 129 3.5 Corporate Debt Market............................................................................................................. 131 3.6 Export Credit Agencies............................................................................................................. 132 3.7 Local Islamic Banks................................................................................................................... 132 3.8 Foreign Direct Investment....................................................................................................... 133 4. POWER SECTOR INVESTMENT CHALLENGES: MACRO STABILITY AND SECTOR RISK............................................................... ............................................................................................. 134 4.1 Less Developed Economies and Capacity Deficits.............................................................. 134 4.2 Beleaguered Supply Matrix....................................................................................................... 135 4.3 Economic Recovery is Fragile.................................................................................................. 135 4.4 Economic vulnerability is the primary hurdle....................................................................... 136 4.5 Domestic liquidity remains tight and Cost of Borrowing remains high…………….. 136 4.6 Private Sector Credit Slump.................................................................................................... 137 4.7 Contingent Liabilities must be controlled............................................................................ 138 4.8 Inefficient fuel-mix leads to high power generation costs.................................................. 140 4.9 Local resources under-utilized.............................................................................................. 141 iii 4.10 Without gas security, outlook for power sector could be dire........................................... 141 4.11 Circular debt problem............................................................... ................................................ 142 4.12 Compliance and enforcement of contracts and legal structure.......................................... 143 4.13 Corporatization of the sector................................................................................................... 144 4.14 Devise and implement sustainable sector development...................................................... 145 4.15 Recent Announcements..............................................................
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