INDUSTRY REPORT 2030: THE DEATH OF THE HIGH STREET WHY THE RISE IN E-COMMERCE MEANS BRITAIN’S TOWN CENTRES WILL BE UNRECOGNISABLE WITHIN 15 YEARS AUTHOR: DAVID JINKS MILT HEAD OF CONSUMER RESEARCH EMAIL:
[email protected] WEB: PARCELHERO.COM/HIGHSTREETREPORT THE HIGH STREET APPEARS UNCHANGING; BUT IN FACT IT IS AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS UNDER THREAT. IN 1950 THERE WERE NEARLY 600,000 STORES IN THE UK; BUT, BY 1971, THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUPERMARKET REDUCED THE AMOUNT TO WELL UNDER 400,000. BY 2012 THERE WERE ONLY 290,000 SHOPS LEFT; AND BY 2030 JUST 130,000 ARE LIKELY TO SURVIVE BECAUSE OF THE IMPACT OF E-COMMERCE. NOTE THE BANK LOGO. BANK FASHION FAILED IN 2015 IN THE TEETH OF INTERNET COMPETITION. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The death of the High Street as we know it may be far nearer than people think. By 2030, just 13 years’ time, the impact of e-commerce and home deliveries will mean the town centre as we know it today, with all its familiar names, will be a memory. 1. Vanishing stores: Between 2020 and 2030 half of the UK’s existing shop premises will have disappeared. In 1950 there were 600,000 stores in the UK, in 2012 there were 290,000 and just 220,000 will survive by 2020 says The Centre for Retail Research. With home deliveries increasing exponentially, the decade from 2020 to 2030 will see a further 100,000 stores close if this trend continues: leaving just 120,000 shops on our high street. 2. E-commerce conquers all: By 2030 e-commerce will account for around 40% of all UK retail sales.