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A Rural Vision for Wales Thriving Communities for the Future

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A Rural Vision for Wales Thriving Communities for the Future A Rural Vision for Wales Thriving Communities for the Future The Evidence Report Written by Michael Woods with Jesse Heley, Helen Howells and Bryonny Goodwin-Hawkins Centre for Welsh Politics and Society/WISERD@Aberystwyth Department for Geography and Earth Sciences Aberystwyth University Aberystwyth SY23 3DB www.cwps.aber.ac.uk www.aber.ac.uk/dges In collaboration with the Welsh Local Government Association January 2021 This research has been undertaken as part of the Wales Living Lab of the ROBUST project www.rural-urban.eu ROBUST receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant amendment No 727988. This document reflects only the authors’ view. The European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains. © The authors, 2021 The material in this report may be reused with attribution for non-commercial purposes under a CC BY-NC license. Table of Contents 1. Background ................................................................................................................................. 2 2. Process ......................................................................................................................................... 4 3. Defining Rural Wales ................................................................................................................. 5 4. Rural Wales Today ..................................................................................................................... 9 Population, Migration and Demography ....................................................................................... 9 Economic Structure and Employment ......................................................................................... 15 Agriculture and the Food Sector .................................................................................................. 21 Tourism ............................................................................................................................................ 26 Manufacturing ................................................................................................................................. 28 Natural Capital and Green Economy .......................................................................................... 29 Poverty and Deprivation ................................................................................................................ 33 Access to Services and Infrastructures ...................................................................................... 36 Housing ............................................................................................................................................ 39 Welsh Language............................................................................................................................. 44 Rural – Urban Interactions ............................................................................................................ 47 UK Withdrawal from the European Union (Brexit)..................................................................... 48 Impact of COVID-19 ....................................................................................................................... 54 5. Looking Ahead: Forming the Vision ................................................................................... 61 6. The Way Forward: Behind the Proposals .......................................................................... 70 Diversifying the economic base with a circular economy approach ....................................... 72 STEMM the tide .............................................................................................................................. 75 Adding value to rural infrastructure ............................................................................................. 77 Sustainable tourism supporting local communities, businesses and people ........................ 81 Housing to reflect local community needs .................................................................................. 82 Smart and thriving rural towns ..................................................................................................... 84 Community wealth building and addressing the missing middle ............................................ 86 7. Delivering the Vision ............................................................................................................... 89 Glossary of Key Terms ................................................................................................................... 91 References and Sources ................................................................................................................ 96 1 1. Background 1.1 The Rural Vision has been commissioned by the WLGA Rural Forum – representing the nine predominantly rural local authorities of Anglesey, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Conwy, Denbighshire, Gwynedd, Monmouthshire, Pembrokeshire and Powys – to develop a strategic framework for future policy impacting on rural Wales and to identify key policy asks for the Welsh and UK Governments. 1.2 The Rural Vision reflects the shared challenges faced by the WLGA Rural Forum members and their territories, from lower population densities, distance from major population centres and transport infrastructure, higher costs of delivery for public services, and the impacts of broad social and economic trends on rural communities. 1.3 The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union (Brexit) has reinforced the timeliness of taking a comprehensive overview of the needs of rural communities in Wales and articulating a new holistic vision. Not only will Brexit and the form of any post-Brexit agreement with the EU have significant implications for the rural economy in Wales, but it requires the implementation of new policies and programmes in areas including agricultural support, rural development and regional economic investment that have previously been subject to EU policies and programmes. This presents an opportunity for the adoption of new integrated approach, connecting previously separate policy silos, but also poses a risk that new policies could dilute the coherence and significance of the ‘rural’ as a distinctive object of government intervention. 1.4 Further impetus for a renewed policy focus on rural Wales has emerged from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and associated control measures, which have presented challenges for all economic sectors in rural Wales and affected the incomes and security of households in rural communities across Wales, as well as emphasizing existing inequalities in access to services and infrastructure. The proposals presented in the Rural Vision have consequently assumed additional importance as a roadmap for rural recovery in Wales after the pandemic. 1.5 The Rural Vision has been produced through an evidence-based and inclusive process. It presents a consensus perspective outlining priorities and policy proposals that have broad support across the political spectrum represented in the WLGA Rural Forum and amongst a wide array of rural stakeholders engaged in the development process. As such, it is recognized that there may be issues and policy proposals that lie outside the those outlined in the Rural Vision on which there is more divergence of views, and their exclusion is not necessarily an indication that they are inappropriate or impractical. 1.6 The Rural Vision is intended to complement the separate development by the Welsh Government of policy frameworks for agricultural and agri-environmental support and land management, outlined in the Sustainable Farming and Our Land consultation,1 and for regional economic development, summarised in the Framework for Regional Investment in Wales.2 It is envisaged that the proposed actions and support presented in the Rural Vision would not require new delivery structures, but would be primarily implemented through extant structures including the 1 Sustainable Farming and Our Land, Consultation Document, Welsh Government, July 2019, and Sustainable Farming and Our Land: Our Response, Welsh Government, June 2020. 2 A Framework for Regional Investment in Wales, Welsh Government, November 2020. 2 Welsh Government’s Regional Economic Framework and the UK Government’s Growth Deals and Shared Prosperity Fund, as well as directly through local authorities. 1.7 This Evidence Report presents the evidence supporting the Rural Vision. It outlines evidence on the current socio-economic position of rural Wales, the challenges and opportunities presented by Brexit, and the impact of COVID-19, and considers scenarios for potential pressures on rural communities over the next ten years. The report subsequently summarises the rationale for the specific priorities and proposals presented in the Rural Vision, providing indicative detail on how they might be developed and implemented, and illustrated with case studies of relevant examples of existing good practice. 3 2. Process 2.1 Work to develop the Rural Vision has been undertaken by the WLGA and the Centre for Welsh Politics and Society at Aberystwyth University as part of the ROBUST project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research programme.3 The work has involved the collation and analysis of evidence from a wide range of sources, scoping discussion and refinement of proposals through a series of workshops and an online survey,
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