Economic History

We can’t understand our present or predict our future unless we know how and why we got here!

Lecturer: Dr Ramin Nassehi

This course is concerned with the history of industrialisation and economic growth from the late 19th century to the present day; the period when some countries rapidly became rich and generated massive divergence in the standard of livings around the globe. The aim here is to explore factors that helped or hindered countries to industrialise. These factors include investment in physical and human capital, infant industry protection, political institutions, culture and geography. By examining these factors, this course provides an insight into the complexity of long-run economic development. By studying the patterns of past industrial revolutions, this course encourages you to think like a historian about the possible effects of the ongoing Artificial Intelligence Revolution.

This course is based on a reading list rather than a textbook. The readings are mostly empirical studies and any student with a basic background in economics would be able to follow them.

Broad themes:

(a) Becoming familiar with the First, Second & Third industrial revolutions. How did these revolutions happen and how did they spread to other countries? Who were the winners and losers of these revolutions within and across countries?

(b) Exploring the possible causes of the Industrial Revolution in Britain, the European reconstruction after the WWII, the American Golden Age and the East Asian economic miracle.

(c) Understanding the challenges of “catch-up” industrialisation.

(d) Realising the embeddedness of any economy in its political, social and cultural context.

Weekly topics:

1 A short history of industrialisation before 1870 2 A short history of industrialisation after 1870 3 Demographic transition (population growth) 4 Capital accumulation & technological progress 5 Structural change 6 Reading week 7 State-led industrialisation 8 Political institutions & colonialism 9 Culture 10 Natural resources 11 Income inequality

Assessment:

Essay: For your coursework, you should submit one essay which will account for 40% of your final grade. The word limit for the essay is 2,000 words (excluding the bibliography). A detailed guideline of “what is expected” in the essay will be given to you in the first week of the course.

Final Exam: In addition to the essay, there will be a 2-hour exam during the main examination period in the summer, which will count for the remaining 60% of your final mark. The final exam has two parts. In part A you need to answer 3 short questions (out of 5), and in Part B you need to answer 1 long question (out of 3). The format of the exam will be discussed in detail during the course.

Some recommended readings (not compulsory):

Compulsory readings:

Week 1: A short history of industrialisation before 1870

*Allen, R. C. (2011). Why the industrial revolution was British: commerce, induced invention, and the scientific revolution 1. The Economic History Review, 64(2), 357-384. http://www.jstor.org/stable/41262428

*Crafts, N. F. (1997), Some Dimensions of the ‘Quality of Life’ During the British Industrial Revolution. The Economic History Review, 50: 617-639. doi:10.1111/1468-0289.00071

Week 2: A short history of industrialisation after 1870

* Pritchett, L. (1997). 'Divergence, Big Time', Journal of Economics Perspectives, 11 (3): 3- 17. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.11.3.3

*Allen, R, C (2011), Global Economic History: A Very Short Introduction, Oxford University Press. Read chapter 8.

*Eichengreen, B. (2007). The European economy since 1945 : Coordinated capitalism and beyond (Princeton economic history of the Western world). Read the introduction.

Week 3: Demographic transition

*Dyson, T. (2010). Population and development: The demographic transition. London: Zed Books. Read the introduction & chapters 2 &4.

*Guinnane, T. (2011). The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists. Journal of Economic Literature, 49(3), 589-614. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/23071723

*Bloom, D., & Williamson, J. (1998). Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia. The World Bank Economic Review, 12(3), 419-455. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/3990182

Week 4: Capital accumulation and technological progress

*Robert C. Allen (2012) ‘Technology and the Great Divergence: Global Economic Development Since 1820’. Explorations in Economic History 49 (1) (January): pp. 1–16. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0014498311000416

*Piketty, T., & Goldhammer, A. (2014). Capital in the twenty-first century: The dynamics of inequality, wealth, and growth. Cambridge Massachusetts: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press. Read chapter 6.

*Easterly, W., & Fischer, S. (1995). The Soviet Economic Decline. The World Bank Economic Review, 9(3), 341-371. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/3989846

Week 5: Structural change

*Rodrik, D. (2013). Unconditional Convergence in Manufacturing. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,128(1), 165. https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/128/1/165/1839808

* Bénétrix, A., O'Rourke, K., & Williamson, J. (2012). The Spread of Manufacturing to the Poor Periphery 1870---2007. NBER Working Paper Series, N/a. http://www.nber.org/papers/w18221

*Adam Szirmai (2009), Industrialisation as an engine of growth in developing countries, UNU- WIDER Working Paper No. 2011/75. http://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:330

Week 6: State-led industrialisation

*Chang, H. (2002). Kicking away the ladder: Development strategy in historical perspective. London: Anthem Press. Read Chapters 1& 2.

* Pack, H. (2006). Is There a Case for Industrial Policy? A Critical Survey. World Bank Research Observer, 21(2), 267-297. https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/abs/10.1093/wbro/lkl001

Week 7: Political institutions & colonialism

*North, D., & Thomas, R. (1970). An Economic Theory of the Growth of the Western World. The Economic History Review,23(1), 1-17. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0289.1970.tb01010.x

*Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J. (2001). The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation. The American Economic Review, 91(5), 1369- 1401. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2677930

Week 8: Culture

*Nathan Nunn (2012), Culture and historical process, NBER Working Paper 17869, Accessible at: http://www.nber.org/papers/w17869

*Mokyr, J. (2005). The Intellectual Origins of Modern Economic Growth. The Journal of Economic History, 65(2), 285-351. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/3875064

*Alesina, A., & Giuliano, P. (2015). Culture and Institutions. Journal of Economic Literature, 53(4), 898-944. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/43927694

Week 9: Natural resources & economic development

*Rosser, A (2006), The political economy of the resource curse: A literature survey, Institute for Development Studies working paper No 268. http://www.ids.ac.uk/publication/the- political-economy-of-the-resource-curse-a-literature-survey

*Sachs, J.D. & A.M. Warner, Natural resource abundance and economic growth, NBER Working Paper No. 5398, 1995.

*Torvik, R (2009), Why do some resource abundant countries succeed while others do not?, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol 25, No 2, pp 241-256. https://academic.oup.com/oxrep/article/25/2/241/1745929

Week 10: income inequality

The readings will be given in due course.