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Auto component industry prospects Russian Automotive Market Research Auto component market: trends and opportunities Appendix Russian Automotive Market Research 21 Automotive clusters in Russia Vehicle sales in 2013: 2 774.35 Vehicle production in 2013: 2 186.80 Capacity in 2014: 3 497.00 Capacity in 2020: 4 417.00 Vehicle sales in 2021: 1 914 – 2 340 Vehicle production in 2021: 1 622 – 2 032 Export potential in 2021: 200.00 – 300.00 Source : Russian Automotive Market Research Russian Automotive Market Research 31 Localization Start of OEM production Capacity Models Localization level Nisan Pathfinder Nissan X-Trail Nissan 50 000 2009 Nissan Qashqai – November 2015 34% (St. Petersburg) 2015-100 000 Nissan Murano – June 2016 Nissan End of 2012 Nissan Almera - 2012 (Togliatti) Nissan (Renault plant in Nissan Terrano - 2014 Moscow) Nissan August 2014 Nissan Sentra (IzhAuto, Udmurtia 2015 Nissan Tiida - 2015 Republic) Datsun Datsun on-DO 2014 Up to 100 000 (Togliatti) Datsun mi-DO Renault Logan Renault Logan – Renault Sandero 75% Renault 1999 190 000 Renault Fluence – up to March, 2016 Renault Sandero – CKD (Moscow) Renault Duster Renault Fluence – CKD Renault Kaptur – April 2016 Renault Duster-CKD Renault Logan Renault Renault Logan – 2014 B0 line – 350 000 Renault Sandero (Togliatti) 75% Hyundai Solaris – 47% Hyundai Solaris Hyundai-KIA Hyundai Creta Crossover: 2016 – 2011 220 000 Kia Rio (St. Petersburg) 30%, Hyundai Creta Crossover – August, 2016 2017 – 50% KIA Sorento, KIA Cee’d, KIA Mohave, KIA Soul, KIA Sportage, KIA Venga, KIA Quoris, KIA Sorento CKD – November Hyundai-KIA 1997 100 000 KIA Optima, KIA Cerato, Hyundai i40, Hyundai 2013 (Kaliningrad) Equus, Hyundai Elantra KIA Cerato – November 2014 KIA Venga 270 000, including Volkswagen Polo Sedan Volkswagen Volkswagen Polo - 40% 2007 CKD: 225 000 Volkswagen Tiguan (Kaluga) Volkswagen Tiguan - 22% Skoda Rapid - 2014 SKD 45 000 vehicles Skoda Yeti - November 2011 - 20 000 Volkswagen November 2011 132 000 Volkswagen Jetta – April 2013 - 40 000 Skoda Yeti – CKD 2012 (Nizhniy Novgorod) Skoda Octavia – June 2013 - 50 000 Source : Russian Automotive Market Research Russian Automotive Market Research 51 Localization Start of OEM production Capacity Models Localization level GM (Togliatti) 2002 100 000 Chevrolet Niva 95% Peugeot 408 CKD, PSA Peugeot Citroen localization level- 35% (PSMA RUS) 2010 125 000 – for PSA Peugeot 408 Citroen C4 - CKD, (Kaluga) and MMC, PSA – 85 Citroen C4 Sedan localization level- 35% 000 Projected localization level-50% 125 000 – for PSA Mitsubishi Outlander- CKD Mitsubishi Motor Corporation 2010 and MMC Mitsubishi Outlander 2014– 20% (PSMA RUS) (Kaluga) MMC – 40 000 End of 2015 – 30% Ford (Leningrad region) 2002 125 000 Ford Focus Ford Focus - 30% Ford Mondeo Ford Transit – CKD April Ford Transit 2015 Ford Explorer Ford Explorer – CKD April Elabuga - 2012 85 000 Ford Kuga 2013 Ford-Sollers Ford-S Max Ford Kuga - CKD October (Tatarstan Republic) Naberezhnye 115 000 Ford Galaxy 2013 Chelny - 2014 Ford Tourneo Custom - June 2013 40%-2014 Ford EcoSport – 2014 45%-2015 Ford Fiesta - June 2015 50% - 2016 60%-2018 50 000 Toyota (St. Petersburg) 2007 Possible in 2016 – Toyota Camry CKD - 15% 100 000 Toyota RAV 4 - 2016 2014 - 30% 1 stage – 50 000 Mazda CX-5 Mazda (Far East) October 2012 2 stage – 70 000 Mazda 6 - April 2013 SKD Planned welding and Great Wall (Lipetsk region) March 2014 Great Wall H6 painting Great Wall (Lipetsk region) 2016-2017 Haval CKD Haval H2 Planned welding, painting, Great Wall (Tula region) 2017 150 000 Haval H6 Coupe assembling Haval H9 Suppliers park Brilliance (Derways, Karachay- Cherkessia Republic) March 2014 2014 -3500-4000 Brilliance V5 Chery (Derways, Karachay- Chery A 19 Cherkessia Republic) Autumn 2014 10 000-20 000 Chery T21 JAC (Derways, Karachay- Cherkessia Republic) February 2014 JAC S5 Dongfeng Tatarstan Republic January 2015 120-170 000 CKD - 2017 Lifan (Lipetsk region) Summer 2017 60 000 CKD Stamping, welding, Hawtai (Partnership with KAMAZ, painting, assembling Tatarstan Republic) 50 000 Hawtai, 4 models: crossovers and sedans Projected localization level – 60% Foton Tunland – pick-up Foton Motors September 2016 Foton Sauvana - SUV Source : Russian Automotive Market Research Russian Automotive Market Research 51 Localization Start of Localizati OEM production Capacity Models on level Autocomponents for localization IVECO-AMT 1994 1 000 TRAKKER - - (Chelyabinsk region) Volvo FH-12 Volvo FM-12 End of 2014 – Different types of bodies, tyres, springs, cabins, VOLVO TRUCKS 10 000 (by 15% chassis components, automatic transmission 19, January, 2009 Volvo FM-64 (Kaluga region) 2015) Volvo FM-42 Projected level - Possible assembly of axles, gear boxes in 2020 Volvo FM-84 33% Volvo FMX Renault Route RENAULT TRUCKS 19, January, 2009 5 000 Renault Lander 20-50% Different types of bodies, tyres, cabins (Kaluga region) Renault Kerax Cable harnesses, fuel tanks, tyres, wheels, leaf 28% 5 000 and parabolic springs, frames, plastics and rubber, SCANIA Chassis assembly 2010 Increase up to Griffin P 380 castings, forgings, machining, batteries, air surge (St. Petersburg) + body structure tanks, torque rods, pressed parts, including 7 500 in 2 shifts surface treatment MERCEDES-BENZ Mercedes-Benz Actros (Euro V) 2013 - 4 500 KAMAZ is the main Partner (Tatarstan Republic) 2010 Mercedes-Benz Atego (Euro V) - 2018 -10 000 Mercedes-Benz Axor (Euro V) Cabins, engines, axles, tires, fuel filter separator Mercedes-Benz Unimog (Euro V) FUSO KAMAZ is the main Partner April, 2010 7 000 Mitsubishi Fuso Canter - (Tatarstan Republic) Batteries, tires MERCEDES-BENZ licensed production of the engine at YaMZ plant July 2013 25 000 Mercedes-Benz Sprinter CKD (Nizhny Novgorod region) Body part stamping at GAZ plant Different body types MAN MAN TGS (Leningrad region) 2013 6 000 - ZF Gearbox MAN TGX (KAMAZ JV -ZF KAMA) Isuzu NLR85A Isuzu NMR85H Isuzu NPR75 Isuzu NQR90 ISUZU CKD brginning April 2014 2006 5 000 Isuzu FSR90 30-50% (Ulyanovsk region) Isuzu FVR34 Different body types Isuzu N1 Isuzu Forward 2017 – trucks, carrying capacity over 24 t BAW Tonik 33463 BAW 40 000/ 60 000 Projected level - Exhaust system, radiators, sound insulation, shock 19, July, 2011 BAW Fenix 3346 (Ulyanovsk region) (by 2015) BAW Fenix 33462 70% absorbers, starters, alternator, wheels, tyres Baw Fenix with gas-petrol engine 2015 – 10 000 HD 78 from September 2012, HYUNDAI SKD, (Kaliningrad region) September 2012 2018 – 25 000 HD-170 , HD 120 from 2013 HD - 35 Since 2015 - CKD FUSO KAMAZ is the main Partner April, 2010 7 000 Mitsubishi Fuso Canter - (Tatarstan Republic) Batteries, tires 2 000, Tata Daewoo Tata Daewoo Prima (Kaliningrad region) October 2014 Increase up to Planned stamping, welding 15 000 Tata Daewoo Novus MDT Ford Otosan Ford 1846 T (tractor) cargo trucks CKD, frame production and body superstructure 2015 (Kaliningrad region) 4X2,6X2, construction trucks 6X4, 8X4 in Russia Donfeng Motor (Saratov region) 500 City bus HOWO (Far East) 2016 – Start of construction work Source : Russian Automotive Market Research Russian Automotive Market Research 61 Auto component manufacturers: density by region Source : Russian Automotive Market Research Russian Automotive Market Research 71 Foreign suppliers in Russia Source : Russian Automotive Market Research Russian Automotive Market Research 81 Production of foreign suppliers in Russia Source : Russian Automotive Market Research Russian Automotive Market Research 91 KAMAZ Purchasing of materials and components 2013 2014 2015 2016, QII 16% 19% 22% 25% 84% 81% 78% 75% Imported Imported Imported Imported Purchased in Russia Purchased in Russia Purchased in Russia Purchased in Russia Source : KAMAZ, analysis Russian Automotive Market Research Russian Automotive Market Research 10 1 KAMAZ 16% growth in costs per 1 vehicle set, 2015/2014: ● Component price growth - 24% ● Material price growth – 43% ● Metal price growth – 2% 16% growth in costs per 1 vehicle set, 2016 QII / 2015 QII: ● Component price growth - 18% ● Material price decrease – 3% ● Metal price growth – 9% Source : KAMAZ, analysis Russian Automotive Market Research Russian Automotive Market Research 11 1 AVTOVAZ Purchasing of materials and components 2014 2015 2016, I-st HY 32% 32% 60% 40% 68% 68% Imported Imported Imported Purchased in Russia Purchased in Russia Purchased in Russia Source : AVTOVAZ, analysis Russian Automotive Market Research Russian Automotive Market Research 12 1 AVTOVAZ Inventory price indices, 2015 ● Components - 1.1220 ● Materials – 1.1480 ● Metal – 1.1860 ● Total: 1.1270 Inventory price indices, 2016 I-st HY ● Components - 1.0166 ● Materials – 1.0190 ● Metal – 0.9691 ● Total: 1.0120 Source : AVTOVAZ, analysis Russian Automotive Market Research Russian Automotive Market Research 13 1 Localization problems AVTOVAZ-RENAULT-NISSAN: suppliers from the Volga region caused 93% of INCOMPLETE vehicles and 98% of IDLE TIME (10 months 0f 2015) Incomplete vehicles Idle time [thousand units] [thousand minutes] 106.7 30.3 0,5 10,5 [10%] [2%] 29,8 96,1 20.1 [98%] [90%] 1,5 43.3 [7%] 3,0 18,6 [93%] [7%] 40,3 [93%] FY 2014 10M 2015 2014 10M 2015 Volga Region Other Volga Region Other Source : ARNPO Russian Automotive Market Research 14 1 Auto component industry profile Russian independent Foreign suppliers Russian holdings suppliers Poor cooperation with foreign 100% of foreign capital prevails Cooperation with foreign companies companies, Limited resources Supplies to OEM prevail. Decline in supplies to OEMs Supplies to OEMs and to the A few suppliers working
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  • Evaluation of New Energy Vehicle Technology Investment Under the Development Framework of Chinese Society Ziao Zheng 1 1 Shanghai Volkswagen Powertrain Co., Ltd

    Evaluation of New Energy Vehicle Technology Investment Under the Development Framework of Chinese Society Ziao Zheng 1 1 Shanghai Volkswagen Powertrain Co., Ltd

    ORIGINAL ARTICLE Evaluation of New Energy Vehicle Technology Investment Under the Development Framework of Chinese Society Ziao Zheng 1 1 Shanghai Volkswagen Powertrain Co., Ltd Abstract: It is expected that by 2018, the potential market capacity of China's car-sharing travel market is expected to reach 1.8 trillion yuan. With the continuous development of shared economy, shared travel is also a real impact, and even change the way people live and even values. A study published in September 2015 by McKinsey shows that in the United States, the millennial generation (referring to those who were born in the late 1980s) was 16 percent less likely to drive commuting than the previous generation. The proportion of private cars is 23% lower, and the frequency of public transport is three times that of them. In the Internet age, with the Internet about the car, short rental, sharing the popularity of cycling, people have gradually become accustomed to sharing the convenience brought about by the economy. Perhaps in the near future, "shared car" will share a bike, network bus and even aircraft train together, together constitute a new urban traffic system. Keywords: New energy vehicle; investment evaluation; China Development 1. Introduction Energy and the environment are becoming the two major determinants of the development of the world's automobile industry. In today's environment and energy urgency, the new energy-based travel tool based on convenient and environmentally friendly has become an urgent need of society. Air pollution and haze and other disasters increasingly endanger the human health, from the source to start the management of environmental measures on the point of view, environmental protection and energy conservation of new energy vehicles and large-scale application of the application is imminent.