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We Expect Stock Market to Decline in the Near Term Given a Rebound

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We Expect Stock Market to Decline in the Near Term Given a Rebound 22nd August, 2017 Hang Seng Index Performance Index Performance Abs chg % Change Hong Kong Close 1-Day 1-Day 1-Mth 3-Mth Hang Seng Index 27,154.68 107.11 0.40 1.68 6.94 HSCI 3,710.90 15.36 0.42 1.08 7.38 HSCCI (Red Chips) 4,250.31 39.75 0.94 0.45 5.96 HSCEI (H-Shares) 10,751.54 57.89 0.54 -0.33 3.64 Mkt T/O ($ Mn) 81,888.25 -2,587.62 -3.06 -3.82 16.78 Oversea DJIA 21,703.75 29.24 0.13 0.57 3.87 NASDAQ 6,213.13 -3.40 -0.05 -2.73 1.30 Shanghai SE Composite 3,286.91 18.18 0.56 1.51 6.87 Crude Oil Futures (US$) 47.52 0.15 0.32 3.82 -6.33 Gold Futures (US$) 1,292.70 -0.60 -0.05 3.01 2.48 Baltic Dry Index 1,260.00 13.00 1.04 28.97 32.08 USD / Euro 1.1816 -0.0008 -0.07 1.53 5.18 Yen / USD 109.090 0.2700 -0.25 1.94 1.88 HSCEI HSI 20-Day MA 10,855.14 27,323.98 Source: Bloomberg 50-Day MA 10,648.58 26,499.01 9-Day RSI 46.47 48.19 Market Outlook Eric Yuen - [email protected] Hang Seng Index closed up 0.4% at 27,154. Market turnover decreased to $81.9 billion. Heavily weighted Tencent (700) and HSBC (5) were little changed. China Mobile (941) climbed 0.9% whilst AIA Group (1299) retreated 0.3%. AAC Technologies (2018), CNOOC (883) and China Unicom (762) were top performers in Hang Seng Index, up 4.4%, 3.7% and 3.5% respectively. Chinese property developers rallied. China We expect stock Evergrande (3333) jumped 17.9%. Other seven of eight largest Chinese property market to decline in the developers grew an average 3.2%. Consumption and local banks outperformed the market. China Mengniu Dairy (2319) climbed 2.2%. BOC Hong Kong (2388) and Bank near term given a of East Asia (23) rose 0.6%-0.7%. Local property stocks were mixed. Henderson Land (12) surged 2.4% whilst Sino Land (83) fell 1.1%. Lenovo (992) and Geely Automobile rebound in US dollar. (175) were the worst performing index stocks, down 2.6% and 1.2% respectively. HSCEI advanced 0.5% led by cement, power and energy stocks. Anhui Conch (914) added 1.8%. PetroChina (857), Sinopec (386) and China Shenhua (1088) soared 1.5%- 1.6%. Huaneng Power (902) and CGN Power (1816) rose 1.0%-1.2%. Six insurance companies in HSCEI grew an average 0.6%. Railway, automobile, banking and securities stocks lacked clear direction. Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric (3898) and CRRC Corporation (1766) were the best and worst performing HSCEI stock, up 5.0% and down 0.3% respectively. Great Wall Motor (2333) went up 1.6% while BYD Company (1211) dropped 0.1%. CCB (939) climbed 0.3% but ABC (1288) lost 0.3%. We expect stock market to decline in near term given a strong US dollar. Industry / Corporate News Jason Lam - [email protected] Strong interim results accompanied with bright future outlook ahead – Maintain BUY on Geely Auto (175) Maintain BUY • Interim results were in-line with market expectations plus satisfactory sales volume for July Risk Level: Medium • Strong model cycle in 2018 should guarantee Geely's glamorous sales performance ahead • Formation of JV with Volvo and parent co. in the development of Lynk & Co could potentially increase the Time Horizon: Long possibility of success for the brand Since our BUY recommendation on Geely Auto (175, $18.50, “Geely”) dated July 7, its share price rose 7.7% while the Hang Seng Index climbed 6.6% over the same period. We believe the outperformance is mainly attributable to its robust sales performance and strong interim results. We continue to be optimistic on company’s earnings outlook because : 1) 2017 interim results and July sales volume are both in-line with expectations, reflecting Geely’s ability to uphold its outperformance in an increasingly competitive Chinese PV market without foregoing margins; 2) strong model cycle in 2018 should enable Geely to deliver strong sales performance in the coming year; and 3) development of Lynk & Co brand through a JV with Volvo and parent company is beneficial to Geely and effectively increase the likelihood of the brand achieving success. Geely released its 2017 interim results on 16 Aug 2017, where revenue rose 118% to RMB39.4bn thanks to strong growth in sales volume (+89% yoy) and ASP. Gross profit was up 136% to RMB7.5bn supported by an increase in GPM (+1.5ppt from 17.7% in 1H2016) driven by product mix improvements (new models introduced in 2H2016 contributed 60% of 1H2017 sales volume). Net profit surged 128% to RMB4.4bn and achieved 50.1% of our FY2017 estimate. The overall interim result was in-line with our expectation. On the other hand, Geely’s sales volume for July 2017 remained strong and climbed 87.8% yoy to 91,104 units fueled by robust growth for new models launched in 2016 (~57.4% of total sales volume). For 7M2017, the company recorded a total sales volume of 621,731 units (+89.1% yoy) and achieved 56.5% of its full year sales target, significantly outperforming the industry (Chinese PV market +2.24% yoy for 7M2017) and most of its peers. During the analyst meeting, the management indicated that the company’s capacity issue on the automatic transmission gearbox have been largely resolved and expressed their confidence in achieving the adjusted full year sales target of 1.1mn units. We believe Geely is well on-track in meeting its full year sales target on the back of model upgrades and further ramp-up of key models that were previously capped by capacity shortages (Emgrand GS and Boyue in particular). In 2018, the company will launch 8 new models (5 under Geely and 3 under Lynk & Co) on top of existing model upgrades, most of which will target segments in which Geely previous lack market presence. Considering Geely’s good track record in launching competitive models and increasingly strong brand recognition, we take a bullish view on sales volume growth in the coming years. Geely previously announced the formation of a 50:30:20 JV with Volvo and its parent company on the production and sales of Lynk & Co branded vehicles. Company believes the joint venture will greatly enhance Lynk & Co’s future development and create benefits to all contributing parties. We share the view and think the deal is positive to Geely given that 1) formation of a JV would help reduce Geely’s initial investment cost and risk, 2) it allows for sharing of leading technologies held by Volvo and parent company, as well as bulk procurement with Volvo on common parts and thus benefit from economies of scale; and 3) it enables Geely to utilize Volvo’s existing reputation and its resources (such as dealership channels) around the globe, thus ultimately reduces barriers to entry to overseas market as well as the related entry costs. Considering the abovementioned factors, we forecast Geely’s sales volume to reach 1.12 units (+47% yoy, 2.2% above management target) in 2017 and 1.34mn units (+19% yoy) in 2018. Revenue projection is RMB88.8bn (+65.2% yoy) in 2017 and RMB111.3bn (+25.4% yoy) in 2018. Furthermore, we have upward-adjusted our GPM forecasts to 19.3% in 2017 and 19.5% in 2018 with a net margin of 9.9% and 10.2% respectively. As such, we forecast Geely’s net profit to reach RMB8.8bn in 2017 and RMB11.4bn in 2018, up 71.6% yoy and 29.7% yoy, respectively. Traded at 12.2x 2018 P/E, valuation of Geely remains attractive in our view. We therefore maintain our BUY rating with a revised 12-month target price of $21.0 based on 13.8x 2018 P/E or equivalent to 1.5 standard deviations above its 5-year forward P/E average. Recent Recommendations Stock Pick Rating Recommendation Highlights Target Price SWK’s strong 2Q17 results suggested industry fundamental remains intact. Reiterate BUY on Techtronic Techtronic Industries Industries (669) BUY $43.0 (669) • SWK's 2Q17 results and positive outlook suggest that power tools market remains intact • Home Depot's penetration into Pro segment will also help to expand TTI's market size • Product innovation will lead to a new round of product upgrade cycle and hence margin expansion Hua Hong Semiconductor Higher-than-expected gross margin – Maintain BUY Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347) BUY $12.3 (1347) • Gross margin increased to record high of 33.2% in 2Q17 • Management forecasts revenue growth of 5% qoq and gross margin of 33% in 3Q17 Reiterate BUY on Angang Steel (347) as flat product price is likely to catch up with the long product price rally in 2H17 Angang Steel (347) BUY • Proposed production halt in Hebei during heating season will further tighten steel supply $8.24 • Demand from downstream sectors such as infrastructure, home appliance and auto are likely to recover further in 2H17 Acceleration of M&A activities will improve earnings growth prospect – Maintain BUY CPMC (906) • Increasing dividend payout reflects management's confidence on future earnings growth CPMC (906) BUY • Proposed acquisition of 30% stake in Qingyuan JDB Herbal Plant Technology will boost earnings $4.85 growth • Attractive valuation with 2-year EPS CAGR of 9% Largely in-line sales volume data for July 2017 with profit margin remain pressured – Maintain SELL on GWM (2333) • Monthly sales volume for July was largely in-line with market expectation GWM (2333) SELL • Stronger-than-expected ramp-up in sales of VV7 partially alleviate concerns over the market $7.86 acceptance of "WEY" brand • Outlook remains uncertain given concerns on profit margins and increasingly fierce competition within the SUV space Reiterate BUY on Nine Dragons Paper (2689) as China shows no sign of slowdown in environmental Nine Dragons Paper investigation BUY $14.0 (2689) • Fourth round of environmental inspection has kicked off last week, with plants in Fuyang all halted production for a week • Expect paper price to go up further
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