Article Detailed Modelling of the Deep Decarbonisation Scenarios with Demand Response Technologies in the Heating and Cooling Sector: A Case Study for Italy Francesco Calise 1, Massimo Dentice D’Accadia 1, Carlo Barletta 1, Vittoria Battaglia 1,*, Antun Pfeifer 2 and Neven Duic 2 1 Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Naples Federico II, 80040 Naples, Italy;
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[email protected]; Tel.: +39-347-4461-729 Received: 30 July 2017; Accepted: 22 September 2017; Published: 3 October 2017 Abstract: Energy policies accompanying the transition towards a sustainable development process must be supported by technical analyses in which future energy scenarios are modeled and evaluated. This paper analyzes possible decarbonization scenarios in Italy for the year 2050. They envisage high electrification of transports and residential buildings, high use of renewable energies, and a modal shift towards public transport. The energy scenarios are evaluated using a software program, EnergyPLAN, starting from a reference model developed for the year 2014. Special attention has been given to the modeling of data that are unavailable in the literature, such as the time profile of heating and cooling demands, obtained with the degree-days method and validated by elaborating the results of the modeling of the residential building stock, this latter was dynamically simulated in TRNSYS. The results show that to obtain a significant decrease of greenhouse gas emissions and fossil fuel consumption, it is necessary not only to promote a deeper penetration of renewable sources, but also their integration with other technologies (cogeneration, trigeneration, power-to-heat systems, thermal storage, vehicle-to-grid operations).