Ticipants at the PV Con- Ference There Was No Jostling at the Spacious Halls of the New Milan Exhibition Centre

PV CONFERENCE O sole mio ... che bella cosa

Despite the record at- tendance of 3,000 par- ticipants at the PV conference there was no jostling at the spacious halls of the new Milan Exhibition Centre.

106 Sun & Wind Energy 4/2007 PV CONFERENCE O sole mio ... che bella cosa The »European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition (EU PVSEC)«, which this year took place for the 22nd time, has become as important as it is vast. With 520 stands covering 30,000 m2, the exhibition was almost as big as this year’s Intersolar in Freiburg, Germany, which is after all one of the world’s largest solar fairs. On top of this was a tightly packed conference programme with over a thousand presentations. And don’t for- get the conversations on the conference ﬂ oor – after all each participant had a choice of 3,000 PV sector colleagues to speak to.

nrico Caruso sang about the sun in 1916. »O sole mio, che bella cosa nella giornata è sole.« In English: »What a beautiful thing is a sunny day.« The photovoltaic sector would agree with that. The many days of sunshine in Italy and the revised feed-in law hold the promise of a lucra- E tive market. Growing capacities and fortune hunters

A complete overview of the most important event for the European photovoltaic sector aside from the Inter- solar is impossible. Highlights remain – necessarily sub- jective ones. Two of these seem to accurately reﬂ ect the situation in the sector, however: In hall 20 there was a sort of advertising pillar at a crossing of two gangways, with job ads on it. In the past this sort of thing used to be the domain of those solar companies which produced cells or modules. This year the picture was completely diﬀ erent: The purely solar companies involved in cell or module production had 28 job ads, but the suppliers of production equipment

had 38. Now this result can in no way claim to be repre- Breuer Wilhelm Photos:

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Happy faces from the host country: The Italian minister sentative, but it does tally with the core sentiment from to the continuing shortage of silicon. If some of the for the environment, Alfonso many individual discussions on the stands: Growth rates hopeful markets do not develop according to popular Scanio (second from left), in production technology are currently higher than in »accelerated scenarios«, expensive over-capacities could wants to have at least 3 GWp the main PV market itself. Both the expansion of exist- quickly lead to even more expensive over-production. of photovoltaic power in- ing production lines and the setting up of completely In the same hall an experienced marketing woman stalled in the country by new sites are at the moment making full demands on from an equally experienced solar company was 2016. the equipment providers – this is true for engineering amazed. She hadn’t known that so many companies Photos (12): Wilhelm Breuer services just as much as for the supply of production had already been active in the sector for 20 years. She equipment. The service provider IB Vogt of Berlin, Ger- obviously didn’t know many solar pioneers at all. Ok, I’m many, which designs complete solar factories, has tre- being sarcastic – the comment was aimed at several ex- bled its number of employees in just two years to 150, hibiting companies who were indeed also unknown to and once again had ten new job offers going in Milan. long-term observers of the field, but which still insisted Put somewhat acutely you could say that the technolo- that they had decades of experience in PV technology. gy companies were the only ones at the exhibition The only bit of truth here is that the sector is becoming which still actually had something to sell. While order increasingly difficult to keep track of, even for profes- requests to solar cell and module manufacturers as well sionals. There are many newcomers who are entering as wholesalers were answered with a shake of the head, the sector more or less vigorously. Bold visions can be the equipment suppliers were still able to close con- found: Solarvalue AG of Berlin, Germany, for example, tracts for the delivery of new production lines or com- plans to produce 4,400 tons of solar silicon annually ponents – with long delivery times, however. One pos- right from the start in 2008 at a calcium carbide factory sible conclusion is thus as follows. Just as in any other bought up in Slovenia – by upgrading metallurgical sil- industry the state of investments is an early indicator icon. Is the announcement the usual »storytelling« of a for the development of a sector. According to this the newly set up public company, or does it tell of a golden worldwide photovoltaic industry is about to go into eye for business? Why has no-one else come up with overdrive. It is in for one hell of a take-off. But overca- the idea? »There are lots of fortune hunters around«, pacities will be hellish too, as the development of the was the assessment of another sector expert. To put markets in Europe, the USA and Asia has not been able that positively: This too is a sign of a final breakthrough, to keep up so far. The current overdemand is solely down as has been seen in other sectors.

108 Sun & Wind Energy 4/2007 FGH_Anzeige_gb_210x297mm_SWE.indd 1 �� 30.08.2007 12:11:08 Uhr � � � � � � � � � � � PV CONFERENCE

It is no longer just cells and modules which come from China: At the group stands companies presented lamina- tors, EVA foil and anti-reﬂec- tion-coated front panes.

Winfried Hoffmann, president of the European Photo- voltaic Industry Association (EPIA). The Italian minister for the environment, Alfonso Scanio, was blowing from the same trumpet. The Italian government has set a target of having at least 3,000 MWp of photovoltaic power installed in the country by 2016. »The solar energy sector is the most important of the renewable energies for Italy«, said the minister. »Not just because Italy lies in the so-called sunshine belt, but because we have solar tradition.« He pointed out that at the beginning of the 90’s Italy was at the European avantgarde of photovoltaics. Then, however, development went into a deep sleep. »Now we are waking up again.« This last statement reflects reality more accurately than the hooray-boom jubilation of many professional optimists in the marketing departments of German PV companies. For the growth rates in Italy may be impressive, but they are starting from a low base. Up to the re- vision of the »Conto Energia« only a little more than 60 MWp had been installed – considering the enormous potential in the country one can unreservedly talk of a Political VIPs: The Italian new beginning. And yet all the requirements for a suc- minister for the environment, Italy is starting from a low base cessful reawakening have so far been met. The amount Alfonso Scanio (right), on a of encouragement is huge – there is talk of a market tour at the fair together with Gerhard Willeke, head of the German Fraunhofer Insti- volume of 50 MWp and more for 2007, in the foyer there exhibition organiser Peter tute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, opened the confer- was even talk of over 100 MWp. Helm (centre), head of WIP, ence with the words: »Italy has all the prerequisites not There are still market hurdles to be overcome, how- Munich. just to become football world champion, but also PV ever. The largest is the link between feed-in tariffs and world champion.« This little joke shows that expecta- government coffers. The tariff will be paid for out of tax tions for the country are high. Reasons for this are obvi- revenue, and not as in Germany, where it is passed on ously the climatic conditions on the boot of Italy, but al- to electricity customers. Constant arguments with the so the revised »Conto Energia« law from February 2007, treasury are thus guaranteed. In addition come bureau- which set high tariffs for the feeding-in of solar electric- cratic hurdles resulting from trying to grid-connect sys- ity and simplified procedures. Depending on the systems in the face of unwilling grid operators and from a tem size and type, the feed-in tariff now lies between lack of knowledge on the part of local authorities. Min- 0.36 und 0.49 €/kWh, with a degression of 2 % per an- ister Scanio told of one case in which a local planning num coming in after 2009. Under certain circumstances, authority demanded a noise-emissions assessment from feed-in top-ups of up to 30 % are possible. Additionally, the operator of a large-scale PV plant. there are support programmes for public buildings. The Italian government has set up a national com- With these instruments Italy could become one of Eu- mittee for solar energy to remove such barriers. The rope’s top three alongside Spain and Germany, hopes committee is also to look at something which is impor-

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With One of many Italian start-up StecaGrid companies: Xgroup from tant like in no other country in the world, namely the inverters. Compodarsego aims to compatibility of photovoltaics and the protection of have a 25 MWp line for cells historic buildings and monuments. Ignoring the pe- and modules built up and ripheral areas of large cities, half of the country consists running by the end of the of protected buildings, or of buildings where the sur- year. rounding area has qualities worth protecting. Although we will have to wait and see what actually happens, the sector believes the Italian market will therefore mainly be characterised by large systems on commercially used buildings or areas of land. Italy’s rich cultural her- itage will also have another eﬀect: We can expect to see pioneering design solutions for building-integrated and monument-friendly photovoltaics.

German companies on the move

Italy is of course interesting for export oriented German companies – not so much as a manufacturing location but as a sales territory. The chairman of Q-Cells, Anton Milner, threw up a grand scenario at a press conference: »Germany makes 1,000 MWp a year with 35,000 employees – this is also possible in Italy.« The development of the photovoltaic market in Italy is also being fuelled by energy prices, as these know, said Milner, »only one www.stecasolar.com The right photovoltaic solution for every need?

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Looking towards Asia: The turbine manufacturers have got their work cut out to sat- isfy the large demand from Asia. The majority of interna- tional exhibitors came from China, Taiwan and Korea.

This doesn’t necessarily mean anything, though – and certainly not a lack of competence, but the fact that the number two on the world market is working with companies which are just making their ﬁrst experiences in photovoltaics, says quite a bit about the foundations of the Italian market.

Scarce, scarcer, silicon?

Apart from looking at developments on the Italian market, a gathering of the sector at the scale of the EU PVSEC is naturally also an opportunity to look at photovoltaics from a global perspective. The discussion of prices that has taken place in the last few years could still be heard echoing on the fringes of the conference. But more important were scenarios of the future course of the photovoltaics economy. In a well-attended pre- sentation at the EPIA industry forum, the American sector expert Paula Mints looked into her crystal ball: She The market is going to be expects an increase in market volume to 6 GWp world- THIS big: Paula Mints is head Q-Cells in June 2008. He stressed the good working re- wide in 2009 – in the accelerated scenario. In the con- of the Photovoltaic Services lationship between himself and the cell experts from servative scenario, which considers support for solar at Programme at Navigant Con- Thalheim: »We are with Q-Cells because they believe in current levels, the figure is still an impressive 4.6 GWp. sulting and is well-known for our product.« In Italy, as in France, personal connections Mints thus marked out the frameworks – even for the her intimate knowledge of have a high status. Q-Cells had a total of five module accelerated scenario – in a typically cautious manner. the sector. manufacturers around them in the fold. The deliveries EPIA president Winfried Hoffmann saw the global PV already agreed upon have a volume of between 130 market, although with a slightly different regional split, and 300 MWp with a value of up to € 700 million. in similar dimensions: »We consider 6 GWp in the year Only Renergies Italia S.p.A. from Urbisaglia in central 2010 to be perfectly possible.« Italy so far has a module production line up and run- For an annual production of 6 to 7 GWp at an intrinsic ning, however. The already certified company has been silicon requirement of 8 to 9 g/Wp, approx. 65,000 tons producing modules using mono- and polycrystalline per annum of silicon would be needed. Add to this the cells for two years, mainly for large turn-key systems. 35,000 tons per annum for the semiconductor industry The other four companies are more or less beginners: and you come to 100,000 tons of pure silicon a year. »This Brandoni has until now made bathroom facilities; amount should be on the market in 2010«, estimated Enerqos, with its headquarters in Navacchio near Pisa, Hoffmann, with a side glance at the extra capacities an- is a start-up by managers from various high-tech fields; nounced by the large silicon manufacturers (see page 6). Tech Tile is planning to enter the roof-integrated PV The largest silicon manufacturer in the world, Hem- market; and Vipiemme S.p.A. is from the battery busi- lock Semiconducter Corporation from the USA, confirms ness and has just set up its first module production line. the EPIA president’s estimation. In a survey by the vice

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Einstein Award for Green, Becquerel Prize for Shah

Just as last year the German company Solarworld AG held a stylish and opulent party to cele- brate the winner of the Einstein Award – a prize founded by the Discussion of prizes, not prices: Martin Green receiving … and Arvind Shah receiving the Euro- company that is awarded for ex- the Einstein Award … pean Becquerel Prize. Photos (4): Jörn Iken ceptional services towards the advancement of solar energy. This year the award went to the Australian scientist Martin Green. His research centre at the University of New South Wales An impressive show: As holds the world record for the ef- usual, Solarworld from ﬁ ciency of crystalline solar cells, Germany doesn’t hold which stands at 24.7 %. For years back when it comes to now Green has been one of the celebrating its own suc- opening speakers at the EU cesses. PVSEC and regularly surprises the audience with unconven- tional ideas. Alongside this, Solarworld honours outstanding work by junior scientists. This time the Junior Award went to Tobias Ei- senbarth, Caspar Leendertz and Mark Wimmer, diploma students at the Hahn-Meitner Institute, for their work on the special electrical properties of crystal grain boundaries. The European Becquerel Prize was awarded to the Swiss scientist Arvind Shah. He became well known through a series of inno- vations. A team under his leader- ship developed a high-speed deposition of amorphous silicon in 1987, and later also onto a ﬂ exible substrate. His name is closely tied to the development of the micromorphic tandem cell.

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Potential silicon suppliers from Siberia: The Russian Ni- tol Group from Moscow already has a trichlorsilane plant at Lake Baikal and has already ordered the Siemens reactors for the deposition of polycrystalline silicon blocks from the US-American company GT Solar.

duction facilities for silicon manufacturing using the Siemens process – so the American should know what he is talking about. Presented with a list of announced new silicon production Zarella said: »There’s a lot of hot air around.« In other words: More is being announced than delivered. If you take his words as read, then a short-term solution for the problem will not be possible. Anyone who hasn’t already ordered any machinery won’t be ready to start production for three years. Ac- cording to Zarella, the bottleneck here is the setting up of the chemicals plant to manufacture the gas trichlorsilane from metallurgic silicon, which after purification is the starting point for obtaining ultrapure polysilicon in the Siemens reactor. If interested parties already have access to trichlorsilane, as some Russian companies do, then a production line for manufacturing polycrystalline silicon could be up and running within eighteen months. The ongoing tight situation is having a negative ef- fect on new and small companies at the ingot and wafer stage. Some are degenerating to become purely on- Well shielded from the public demand mills, because they are not able to source their exhibition: At the Chinese president of Hemlock, Gary Homan, in July 2007, the own raw materials and can only cut ingots provided wafer supplier LDK Solar Co. worldwide production capacity for polycrystalline silicon by their customers – or smelt ingots from silicon provid- Ltd., Xinyu City, negotiations adds up to 114,000 tons (see interview on page 6). ed in the same way. We can report that there is a Rus- took place behind closed Hoffmann also noted, however, that these capacities sian ingot manufacturer who is being offered 275 $/kg doors, as the company aims are already largely tied up in long-term supply obliga- for his ingots by spot market traders, but who is expect- to expand its silicon produc- tions: »Many, especially new companies, are going to be ed to pay 350 $/kg for solar grade silicon. The back- tion to 6,000 tons a year from empty-handed.« ground to this deal is as follows: Silicon granulate is 2008. If one believes Hoffmann, then silicon production more profitable for traders because it can be stretched should just be enough for the accelerated scenario – with low quality material such as »tops and tails«. These scarcity, as in the last few years, would not be an issue. are the upper and lower portions of silicon blocks, in But there were also other opinions, especially on the ex- which impurities concentrate during solidification, and hibition side. Natalie Bauer from the sales team at Sanyo which are sawn off before wafers are cut. That spot- stated the multinational’s official view that the shortage market silicon is stretched in this way was confirmed by of silicon would continue until 2010. Other companies a large Chinese manufacture we talked to. If these are such as Q-Cells put back their expected all-clear not just isolated incidents then problems of quality will for silicon supplies from 2008 to 2009. A telling view soon affect the sector – although this would also give behind the scenes could be found in a comment by European companies, if suitably prepared, the chance Thomas Zarella, president of the American mechanical to distinguish themselves from the world market in engineering company GT Solar, with its headquarters terms of quality. They would thus be at least partly able in Merrimack. The company from the east coast of to escape from a potential global price war in a few America is one of the very few manufacturers of pro- years’ time.

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san-0026 SWE GB 1aRE.indd 1 12.10.2007 9:01:05 Uhr PV CONFERENCE

B-to-B at all the stands: The exhibition during the PV conference provides ideal conditions for intensive negotiations.

A testing time for European PV The situation in the Asiatic countries only appears to be different. Although there is enormous demand for The fact that the 23rd EU PVSEC is taking place in Va- production equipment, the current and future produc- lencia can be seen as a negative sign, even though un- tion capacities are mainly to serve exports. Here, either intended by the organisers. If you look at the locations the home market has so far played virtually no role, or from 2005 to 2008 – Spain, Germany, Italy, Spain again it no longer plays a large role. – it becomes clear on what sort of knife-edge the sec- The 22nd EU PVSEC made it clear that the European tor in Europe is dancing its boom tango. It’s two and photovoltaic industry is facing a war on two fronts. On a half boom countries plus two dozen countries in the one hand it must stabilise market developments in which nothing, or at least not a lot, is happening. The Germany and Spain against political opposition and work old practise of holding the EU PVSEC in countries which to establish a (home) market in other European coun- need massive support for photovoltaic development tries and in Asia in the first place. On the other it must would increase the choice of possible locations at a combat competition from the Far East, which is driving swipe. Warsaw, Lisbon, Athens, Riga, Sofia or Bucharest an aggressive price war and is also continuing to catch – nothing much is happening there. Not yet, say the up technologically – whether this is through plagiarism professional optimists from the national and European or its own abilities is a topic for intellectuals. ✹ photovoltaic associations. But changing this will require Jörn Iken

a lot of work in the political committees of the Europe- Jörn Iken is a long term S&WE author based in Hamburg, northern Ger- an Union. many. He is a specialist in wind energy and photovoltaics.

120 Sun & Wind Energy 4/2007 »A uniform feed-in tariff is unlikely« Oliver Schäfer is a political consultant from the European Renewable Energy Council (EREC), an umbrel- la organisation which represents both manufacturers and scientifi c Political consultant for renew- institutes in the fi eld of renewable ables: Oliver Schäfer from the energies in Brussels. At the indus- European Renewable Energy try forum he mentioned the new Council (EREC) Photo: Jörn Iken EU Commission directive, which is supposed to implement the aims for renewable energies formulated in March 2007 (20 % share by 2020). The lobbyists from conventional power generation are pulling all the stops, however.

S&WE: Mr. Schäfer, what is happening in Brussels? Schäfer: A lot, commotion all over the place. Everyone is now think- ing about what will come as a result of the political decisions in March. The binding target for 2020 now has to be implemented. The debate on how this target can be reached is in full ﬂ ow. The opinions range from very good approaches, meaning continuity in that which has already been built up, to the exact opposite – in other words to throw everything overboard and do something radically new.

S&WE: What does that last point mean more speciﬁ cally? Schäfer: These people are betting on emissions trading and are thus ogling what is perceived to be the cheapest method of implementation.

S&WE: So what are the chances of getting a pan-European feed-in tariff system similar to the EEG? Schäfer: This is unfortunately completely unrealistic at the moment; it wouldn’t be got through politically. We should instead be paying much more attention to keeping the existing feed-in tariff s in the Eu- ropean countries, and improving them where they are not yet having an optimal eff ect. But I can’t imagine a uniform system coming into play at a pan-European level.

S&WE: Has the sector been asleep on this issue or is the lobby for renewable energies too weak? Schäfer: Neither nor. The question is whether it has ever been thor- oughly thought through what an implementation of a pan-European feed-in tariff would look like. We can already get an idea of this today: There are 19 countries with a feed-in tariff , but the system is only really having an eff ect in fi ve or six countries. The feed-in tariff is merely one aspect; the development of a PV market requires quite a bit more than this. Without public acceptance for solar power, feed-in doesn’t work: It’s the same if you don’t get a grid connection, or you have to combat excessive bureaucracy. These are all things which must be dealt with at a national level. This is why you have to ask yourself whether the feed-in tariff s should really be regulated at an EU level – all the way from Finland to Spain.

S&WE: So things don’t look good for a pan-European regulation of feed- in? Schäfer: I don’t know whether it’s worth ﬁ ghting for either. In my opin- ion it would be better to create the frameworks at the Brussels level and leave the precise regulations for the individual member countries to decide. A uniform feed-in system is not an absolute necessity as far as I’m concerned. The interview was conducted by Jörn Iken.

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