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Measuring Green Jobs? TemaNord 2012:534 TemaNord Ved Stranden 18 DK-1061 Copenhagen K www.norden.org Measuring green jobs? An evaluation of definitions and statistics for green activities Measuring green jobs? An evaluation of definitions and statistics for green activities The report reviews the different initiatives aiming to measure aspects of “green” sectors, jobs and technologies. The report discusses whether the statistics collected under the present initia- tives aimed at measuring these aspects increase insights into the fundamental questions motivating the initiatives. An alternative framework is suggested, as it appears fundamentally impossible to make consistent frameworks for a division of the economy into “green” and “non-green” activities. The analysis has been carried out during the period September 2011 – March 2012 by Vista Analysis AS, Gaia Consulting Oy and University of Aarhus. Gaia Consulting Oy is responsible for the chapters 5.2., 5.3, 6.2, 6.3 and 7.2 only. The project was commissioned by the Working Group on Environment and Economy under the Nordic Council of Ministers. TemaNord 2012:534 ISBN 978-92-893-2370-3 http://dx.doi.org/10.6027/TN2012-534 TN2012534 omslag.indd 1 23-07-2012 07:27:21 Measuring green jobs? An evaluation of definitions and statistics for green activities Annegrete Bruvoll and Karin Ibenholt (ed.), Sanna Ahvenharju, Marika Bröckl, Louise Martinsen and Marianne Zandersen TemaNord 2012:534 Measuring green jobs? An evaluation of definitions and statistics for green activities Annegrete Bruvoll and Karin Ibenholt (ed.), Sanna Ahvenharju, Marika Bröckl, Louise Martinsen and Marianne Zandersen TemaNord 2012:534 ISBN 978-92-893-2370-3 http://dx.doi.org/10.6027/TN2012534 © Nordic Council of Ministers 2012 Cover photo: Photodisc; ImageSelect Print: Kailow Express ApS Copies: 260 Printed in Denmark This publication has been published with financial support by the Nordic Council of Ministers. However, the contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the views, policies or recom- mendations of the Nordic Council of Ministers. www.norden.org/en/publications Nordic co-operation Nordic co-operation is one of the world’s most extensive forms of regional collaboration, involv- ing Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the Faroe Islands, Greenland, and Åland. Nordic co-operation has firm traditions in politics, the economy, and culture. It plays an im- portant role in European and international collaboration, and aims at creating a strong Nordic community in a strong Europe. Nordic co-operation seeks to safeguard Nordic and regional interests and principles in the global community. Common Nordic values help the region solidify its position as one of the world’s most innovative and competitive. Nordic Council of Ministers Ved Stranden 18 DK-1061 Copenhagen K Phone (+45) 3396 0200 www.norden.org Content Preface........................................................................................................................................................ 7 Executive summary ............................................................................................................................... 9 1. Background .................................................................................................................................... 13 2. Definitions of green sectors ..................................................................................................... 15 2.1 United Nations and Eurostat: Environmental Goods and Services Sector (EGSS) ................................................................................................................... 15 2.2 US Bureau of Labour Statistics................................................................................... 18 2.3 The Green Jobs Initiative – UNEP, ILO, ITUC......................................................... 20 2.4 Metropolitan Policy Program ..................................................................................... 21 3. Evaluation of the statistical frameworks............................................................................. 23 3.1 The intentions of the statistics ................................................................................... 23 3.2 The statistics .................................................................................................................... 24 3.3 Do the statistics match the intentions? ................................................................... 25 3.4 Examples of quantification .......................................................................................... 27 4. Discussion of the framework ................................................................................................... 31 4.1 Principal objections ....................................................................................................... 31 4.2 Specific comments to the EGSS framework .......................................................... 33 4.3 Critical views in other reports ................................................................................... 35 4.4 An alternative approach ............................................................................................... 37 5. Green statistics in the Nordic countries .............................................................................. 39 5.1 Denmark ............................................................................................................................ 39 5.2 Finland ................................................................................................................................ 44 5.3 Iceland ................................................................................................................................ 52 5.4 Norway ............................................................................................................................... 56 5.5 Sweden ............................................................................................................................... 62 6. Future production and employment pattern..................................................................... 65 6.1 Denmark ............................................................................................................................ 65 6.2 Finland ................................................................................................................................ 66 6.3 Iceland ................................................................................................................................ 68 6.4 Norway ............................................................................................................................... 69 6.5 Sweden ............................................................................................................................... 71 7. Future competence needs ......................................................................................................... 73 7.1 Denmark: Competence trends and mismatch ...................................................... 74 7.2 Finland: Demand in 2025 ............................................................................................ 77 7.3 Norway: Demand and supply by education .......................................................... 80 7.4 Views from some central actors ................................................................................ 85 7.5 Summing up ...................................................................................................................... 88 8. Alternative proposal ................................................................................................................... 91 8.1 Need for numbers ........................................................................................................... 93 9. Summary and conclusions ........................................................................................................ 97 References ........................................................................................................................................... 101 Sammendrag ....................................................................................................................................... 105 Preface In discussing and planning for greener growth, a fundamental question is how to measure, compare and keep track of how “green” companies, sectors and countries are, and how the results of green growth policies can be accounted for and evaluated. A particular focus of the discussion of such issues is on the number of “green” jobs and companies, and, from this, on the share of a country’s employment, GDP (gross domestic product) and exports in such compa- nies and sectors. In recent years, several efforts, national and interna- tional, have been made to establish a sound statistical basis for such accounting. This report was commissioned by the Working Group on Environment and Economy of the Nordic Council of Ministers to evalu- ate such efforts and to provide advice on how best to keep track of how “green” (or “environmentally friendly”) economic sectors are and how they and the overall economy develop. The report argues that it is both theoretically and practically ex- tremely challenging if not outright impossible to measure, define and delineate which jobs, companies and sectors that are “green”, while oth- er jobs, companies and sectors are not. This is partly because all produc- tion (and consumption)
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