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Local-Scale Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity to Climate Variability and Change: a Case Study from Northern Central Namibia

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Local-Scale Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity to Climate Variability and Change: a Case Study from Northern Central Namibia MSc Thesis Local-scale Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity to Climate Variability and Change: a Case Study from Northern Central Namibia Hannes Hotz Environmental Sciences (MES) Supervisors: Dr. Todd Crane Technology and Agrarian Development (TAD) Dr. Simon Bush Environmental Policy (ENP) Wageningen, 21 April 2010 II Summary This thesis analyzes how adaptation to climate variability and change is built endogenously by local resource users, and exogenously by a cooperation of an international donor and a community-based organization. The research is exemplified by a case study in the northern central regions of Namibia. The research area is characterized by mean annual rainfall of 450mm, with 50% inter-annual variability. Climate change projections predict a further increase in extreme rainfall events. Livelihoods in the remote village are largely subsistence-based agro-silvo-pastoralism with marginal market involvement. The concepts of local knowledge, vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and adaptation and development are used to theoretically frame the analysis. Empirical data was collected through semi-structured interviews on local, regional and national scale. Additional means of data gathering were participant observation and participatory community workshops. When analyzing endogenous adaptation practices, rainfall was identified as the main determinant of agricultural and livestock productivity in the area. Moderate rainfall is most favorable for local agro-silvo-pastoralists. In addition, the community is highly exposed to non-climatic stressors, in particular increasing population density. The local population perceived an earlier onset of the rainy season, and an increase in total precipitation over the past two decades. Climatic records confirm this pattern. The crop and livestock species used are highly adapted to arid conditions, but can buffer extremely low or high rainfall only to certain degree. A fundamental adaptation strategy is spreading risks to different livelihoods. Local ‘safety nets’ are furthermore composed of strong social cohesion within the community, and extended family networks beyond the village borders. Given the complex interplay of climatic and non-climatic stressors in the area, vulnerability was found to be ambiguous. There is considerable local knowledge on coping strategies and risk spreading mechanisms, however, climate change combined with non-climatic stressors can potentially devalue a part of it. Exogenous adaptation in the research area is implemented via OIKE, a community- based organization. OIKE drafted the project proposal, whereas the donor agency guided the writing process and included their conceptual ideas on adaptation. The adaptation project focuses on technological, institutional, and educational aspects. Given the high climate variability in the area, it is extremely difficult to separate adaptation from development. OIKE perceives any development initiative – whether related to climate change or not – as contributing to reducing the vulnerability of the local community. The piloting of some of the adaptation technologies in the project is considered limited in scope, because it does not consider how these technologies can be adopted and afforded by the local community in the post-project phase. A number of synergies and tensions were identified between endogenous and exogenous adaptation. Whereas some aspects of the project build on local knowledge and practices, the integration is marginal in others. In particular the tight time frame of the project intervention was found to mismatch with local realities. This case study furthermore exemplifies the difficulties of translating global policies into local practices, and local needs and concerns into global policies. Community-based organizations were found to have major potential to act as boundary organizations that mediate between these spheres. Concerning the concept of adaptation, it is recommended to increasingly consider the complex interplay of climatic and non- climatic stressors. III IV Acknowledgement I would like to thank my supervisors Dr. Todd Crane and Dr. Simon Bush for their outstanding support throughout the entire process of this thesis. I want to express my gratitude to all my Namibian partners, above all Dr. Juliane Zeidler, Irene Nunes, Laudika Kandjinga from IECN, and Nickey Gaseb from SGP. Special thanks go to my skilled translator and field facilitator Sion Shifa for mastering countless challenges during field work with me. I also want to thank Teo Nghitila from the DEA, Manuel Mbuende from the MAWF, and Sepiso Mwangala from the Meteorological Service. Thank you to Johnson Ndokosho from the CCA-CPP, the agricultural extension officers of Onkani, and to Marie Johanson and Andreas Twendeni from the Creative Entrepreneur Solutions in Ondangwa. I am very grateful for the support of all OIKE members, in particular Meme Ottilie Amaambo, whose commitment fundamentally enabled my field work. I also want to thank the local authorities of Onkani and the honorary counselor of Otamanzi constituency for approving and supporting my work in the area. Crucial thanks to all interviewees and workshop participants who took the time to answer my questions patiently, and the Onkani community at large for their hospitality, openness and generosity. My last and most important thanks goes to my parents, my brother Florian, Sara, the Geiger family, and all my friends. I dedicate this thesis to my grandfather Artur – who has never set foot on the African continent – for his eternal inspiration. V TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY ............................................................................................................... III ACKNOWLEDGEMENT..........................................................................................V LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................... VIII LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................. VIII ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS................................................................. IX 1. INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................1 1.1. RESEARCH PROBLEM ..........................................................................................1 1.1.1. RESEARCH OBJECTIVE ...................................................................................2 1.1.2. RESEARCH QUESTIONS ..................................................................................3 1.2. NAMIBIA – A HISTORICAL INTRODUCTION .........................................................3 1.2.1. COLONIAL HISTORY ......................................................................................4 1.2.2. INDEPENDENCE AND PRESENT -DAY NAMIBIA ................................................6 1.3. NORTHERN CENTRAL REGIONS ...........................................................................6 1.3.1. GENERAL INTRODUCTION ..............................................................................6 1.4. NAMIBIA ’S CLIMATE ...........................................................................................9 1.4.1. CURRENT STATE ............................................................................................9 1.4.2. CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS ..................................................................12 1.5. RESEARCH AREA ...............................................................................................13 1.6. LIVELIHOODS BASELINE ....................................................................................15 1.6.1. AGRICULTURE AND ANIMAL HUSBANDRY ...................................................15 1.6.2. NATURAL RESOURCE USE ............................................................................19 1.6.3. RURAL ECONOMIES .....................................................................................20 1.7. NATIONAL FRAMEWORK OF ADAPTATION ........................................................21 1.7.1. FRAMING DISCOURSES AND PAPERS ............................................................21 1.7.2. LOCAL PROJECT FRAMEWORK .....................................................................23 1.8. OUTLINE OF THESIS ...........................................................................................24 2. THEORIES AND METHODS...........................................................................25 2.1. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK .............................................................................25 2.1.1. INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................25 2.1.2. LOCAL KNOWLEDGE ....................................................................................26 2.1.3. VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY .................................................27 2.1.4. RURAL DEVELOPMENT ................................................................................28 2.1.5. DEVELOPMENT AND ADAPTATION ...............................................................29 2.2. METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................31 2.2.1. FIELD WORK ................................................................................................31 2.2.2. METHODS ....................................................................................................33 2.2.3. CHALLENGES AND LIMITATIONS OF DATA COLLECTION AND METHODS .......35
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