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Climate Change in Asia”

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Climate Change in Asia” Ⅸ SYMPOSIUM PAPERS Ⅸ-1 Program The 16th International Symposium on National Land Development and Civil Engineering in Asia “Integrated Water Resource Management Adapting to the Global Climate Change in Asia” Monday December 3, 2007 13:00-17:10 Hotel Shiragiku National Institute of Land and Infrastructure Management (NILIM) Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport(MLIT) [Contents] 13:00-13:15 Opening Address Mr. Shin TSUBOKA Director General, NILIM Address Mr. Hiroaki TANIGUCHI Vice Minister for Engineering Affairs, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT) Address Representative of Overseas Participants 13:15- 14:15 Lecture “Integrated Water Management under the Global Warming Scenario –Case Study of Northern Kyusyu with Scarce Water Resources–” Dr. Kenji JINNO Professor, Faculty of Engineering, Kyushu University Global warming is believed to be the one of the major causes of the abnormal climate at present. Beside the regulation of the emission of warming gas, the countermeasures against the threat of flood and drought need to be taken simultaneously. The role of central and local governments which are responsible for the infrastructure management is increasing than before. It is expected for them to take practical and appropriate counteractions. On the other hand, the water environment in megacities where a half of the world people live is also another concern. Frequent flooding, inappropriate waste water management, and insufficient water resources are mostly related to the negative impact of rapid urbanization. In order to conquer the above subjects caused by both abnormal climate and urbanization, the concrete measures need to be initiated in a river basin or regional scale integrating various water users and residents living there. In the present speech, the state of art for the relationship between the potential threat of global warming and the impact of rapid urbanization will be discussed. 14:15-17:00 Presentation and Discussion （Chair : Mr. Kazunori ODAIRA, Director, River Dept., NILIM） 14:15-15:45 Presentation of Case Study (14:15-14:25) Mr. Shin TSUBOKA Director General, NILIM (14:25-14:35) Mr. Yoshinori ASHIDA Director, Planning Dept., Kyusyu Regional Bureau, MLIT (14:35-14:45) Mr. Dhinadhayalan MURUGESAN Assiatant Adviser of Public Health and Environmental Engineering, Central Public Health and Environmental Engineering Organization, Ministry of Urban Development India (14:45-14:55) Dr. Seok-Young YOON Director, Policy research Division , Korea Institute of Construction Technology, Republic of Korea (14:55-15:05) Mr. Wan Abd Rahim Bin WAN ABDULLAH Director, Sewerage Services Dept., Ministry of Energy, Water & Communication, Malaysia (15:05-15:15) Dr. Judy Famoso SESE Director ＩＩＩ, Bureau of Research & Standards, Dept. of Public Works and Highways, Republic of the Philippines (15:15-15:25) Ms. Paniyanduwage Nalanie Sriyalatha YAPA Deputy General Manager, National Water Supply & Drainage Board Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka (15:25-15:35) Ms. DANG Anh Thu Expert (environmental management and urban planning), Department of Urban Technical Infrastructure, Ministry of Construction, Socialist Republic of Vietnam 15:35-15:50 Break 15:50-17:00 Question and Answer Session / Panel Discussion (PANELISTS) 1. Dr. Kenji JINNO, Professor, Faculty of Engineering, Kyushu University 2. Mr. Shin TSUBOKA, Director General, NILIM 3. Mr. Yoshinori ASHIDA, Director, Planning Dept., Kyusyu Regional Bureau, MLIT 4. Mr. Dhinadhayalan MURUGESAN, India 5. Dr. Seok-Young YOON, Republic of Korea 6. Mr. Wan Abd Rahim Bin WAN ABDULLAH, Malaysia 7. Dr. Judy Famoso SESE , Republic of the Philippines 8. Ms. Paniyanduwage Nalanie Sriyalatha YAPA, Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka 9. Ms. DANG Anh Thu, Socialist Republic of Vietnam 17:00-17:10 Closing Address Mr. Katsumune SUZUKI Director General, Kyusyu Regional Bureau, MLIT -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 17:30-19:00 Reception (Venue : Banquet room, Hotel Shiragiku) Host Vice Minister for Engineering Affairs, MLIT Guests Director General, Kyusyu Regional Bureau, MLIT Accommodations: Hotel Shiragiku 16-36, Kamitanoyu-machi, Beppu, Oita 874-0908, Japan TEL. +81-97-721-2111, FAX: 81-97-721-5633 Integrated Water Management under the Global Warming Scenario - Case Study of Northern Kyushu with Scarce Water Resources - Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan Kenji Jinno 1. Introduction 2. Global warming scenario and required tasks 3. Effect of urbanization on water 4. Integrated water management at a basin scale 5. Cooperation of government and residents 6. Evaluation 7. Conclusion keywords ; flood, water resources, environment, IPCC, monthly precipitation, drought, surface water, groundwater, land subsidence, multiple water resources, spring, change of water source, roles of government, participation of expertise and local people, competition amongst municipalities,･････ 1 １．Introduction Climate change ! , ? Normal Probability Level : Strategic planning There are many text books to learn Expectable outcomes from the experienced regions. Investable cost, etc. FloodFlood prevention, prevention, Stable Stable water water resources resources development,development, Safe Safe water water supply, supply, Environment Environment conservationconservation and and Restoration Restoration Bewildering situation? Is the global warming “Out of the Are there any experiences Normal Probability Level ?“: to overcome ? Attackable planning ? How long will it take time ? Are there any text books, etc. ? 2 Where are we now? Direction A? Direction B? Accumulated disaster damage 1985 1980 Annual loss by disaster 1975 1970 Annual investment 1965 Tolerable level! Effort to overcome 1960 Accumulated investment 3 Flooded water in the subway, Fukuoka City ¾Northern Kyushu, Japan July 20, 2003, 99mm/hr ¾Subway stopped all day long It is written in this article: ¾Changes to the subtropical climatic regime caused by global warming Very frequent news from the world! 4 Remarks ; 1-1. It is necessary to identify where we are now in water problems under the scenario of global warming, in order to shift to the new stage of water issues. 5 2. Global warming scenario and required tasks Introduction to the AR4 The Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of mitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) and other various reports. OHP presentation by Dr. R. K. Pachauri, Chairman, IPCC 26th Session of the SBSTA, Bonn, Germany, 12th May 2007 How does IPCC predict the effect of global warming on water? Fresh water resources and their management; Drought-affected areas are likely to increase in extent. Heavy precipitation events, which are very likely to increase in frequency, will augment flood risk. Will these changes take place in your regions? 6 7 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Summary for Policymakers Contribution of Working group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf Table SPM-2. Recent trends, assessment of human influence on the trend, and projections for extreme weather events for which there is an observed late 20th century trend.{Tables 3.7, 3.8, 9.4, Sections 3.8, 5.5, 9.7, 11.2-11.9} Likelihood of future Likelihood that trend Phenomenon a and occurred in late 20th Likelihood of human trends based on direction of trend contribution to observed projections for 21st century(typically post trend b century using SRES 1960) scenarios Warmer and fewer cold days and c d d nights over most land areas Very likely Very likely Virtually certain Warmer and more frequent hot days and nights over most land Very likely e Likely (nights) d Virtually certain d areas Warm spells/heat waves. Frequency increases over most Likely More likely than not f Very likely land areas Heavy precipitation events. Frequency (or proportion of total Likely More likely than not f Very likely rainfalls) increase over most areas Areas affected by droughts Likely in many increases regions since 1970s More likely than not Likely Intense tropical cyclone activity Likely in some f increases regions since 1970s More likely than not Likely Intense incidence of extreme high f, h i sea level (excludes tsunamis) g Likely More likely than not Likely 8 When should we take actions? Do we need the complete and accurate evidence? Or, should we take the actions now? BelievingBelieving globalglobal Suspecting global Suspecting global warming!warming! warming!warming! Table SPM E.1: Qualitative definition of uncertainty*) High agreement, High agreement, High agreement, limited evidence medium evidence much evidence high Medium agreement, Medium agreement, Medium agreement, ↑ limited evidence medium evidence much evidence Level of agreement Low agreement, Low agreement, Low agreement, (on a particular limited evidence medium evidence much evidence finding) Amount of evidence50 (number and quality of independent sources) → much 50 “Evidence” in this report is defined as: Information or signs indicating whether a belief or proposition is true or valid. See Glossary. *) Source: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, Working Group III contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change; Summary for Policymakers. p.36 9
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