Israel and the Middle East, the Journal Includes Articles on National Security in the International Arena As Well
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A Multidisciplinary Journal on National Security Volume 24 | No. 1 | January 2021 A Multidisciplinary Journal on National Security Strategic Assessment: A Multidisciplinary Journal on National Security is a quarterly journal published by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). It aims to challenge and to enrich the scholarly debate and public discourse on a range of subjects related to national security in the broadest sense of the term. Along with its focus on Israel and the Middle East, the journal includes articles on national security in the international arena as well. Academic and research-based articles are joined by policy papers, professional forums, academic surveys, and book reviews, and are written by INSS researchers and guest contributors. The views presented are those of the authors alone. The Institute for National Security Studies is a public benefit company. Editor-in-Chief Itai Brun Editors Kobi Michael and Carmit Valensi Associate Editor Judith Rosen Head of the Editorial Advisory Board Amos Yadlin Editorial Advisory Board Shlomo Brom, Oded Eran, Azar Gat, Eytan Gilboa, Yoel Guzansky, Efraim Halevy, Mark A. Heller, Tamar Hermann, Ephraim Kam, Anat Kurz, Gallia Lindenstrauss, Itamar Rabinovich, Shimon Shamir, Gabi Sheffer, Emmanuel Sivan, Shimon Stein, Asher Susser, Eyal Zisser Graphic Design: Michal Semo-Kovetz and Yael Bieber, Tel Aviv University Graphic Design Studio Logo Design: b-way digital Printing: Orniv Ltd., Holon The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) 40 Haim Levanon • POB 39950 • Tel Aviv 6997556 • Israel Tel: +972-3-640-0400 • Fax: +972-3-744-7590 • E-mail: [email protected] Strategic Assessment is published in English and Hebrew. © All rights reserved. ISSN 0793-8950 Contents A Note from the Editors 3 Regional Architecture and Strategic Competition In Search of a Regional Order: The Struggle over the Shape of the Middle East Itai Brun and Sarah Feuer 5 “Hollow Sovereignty”: Changes in the Status of the Arab Nation States One Decade after the Upheaval Carmit Valensi and Kobi Michael 21 The Erdoganian Amalgam: The Ottoman Past, the Ataturk Heritage, and the Arab Upheaval Gallia Lindenstrauss and Remi Daniel 33 Salafi-Jihadism in the Decade following the Arab Spring: Down and Up and Down Again Yoram Schweitzer 48 Ideas and Ideologies Toward a New “Solution”? Islamic Ideologies in the Middle East a Decade after the Uprisings Dov Dell and Sarah Feuer 56 Iran, the Shia, and the Arab Upheaval: The Ideological Response Meir Litvak 74 The Civil State vs. the Secular State in Arab Discourse: Egypt as a Case Study Limor Lavie and Abdallah Shalaby 88 Public Opinion The Arab Spring Then and Now, through the Prism of Public Opinion David Pollock 101 Demographics and Economics Demographic and Economic Developments in the Arab World, 2010-2020 Paul Rivlin 112 Between the Regional and the Global Political Trends in the Middle East: A Glimpse into the Future? Irina Zvyagelskaya 128 US Engagement and Disengagement in the Middle East: Paradox and Perception Brandon Friedman 136 China’s Evolving Approach to the Middle East: A Decade of Change Gedaliah Afterman 154 Professional Forum Roundtable: Israel and the Middle East, One Decade after the Arab Upheaval Carmit Valensi 161 Academic Survey From a Dyadic Sunni-Shiite Contest to a Tri-Polar Rivalry: Interventions in post-Arab Spring Conflicts Ido Yahel 170 Book Review An Arab Spring only in Tunisia—Elsewhere, an Arab Winter Oded Eran 179 ISIS in Its Own Words: The History, Strategy, and Ideology of the Islamic State Adam Hoffman and Ronen Zeidel 182 Epilogue Shlomo Avineri 188 A Note from the Editors This issue of Strategic Assessment, a collaborative effort by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, is an expanded special issue that aims to examine and analyze what is known as the “Arab Spring” from the perspective of a decade. The upheaval that began in Tunisia in late 2010 and spread throughout the Arab world has not yet ended. Its shockwaves continue to have an impact on a region marked by chronic instability, with Syria, Libya, Yemen, and Lebanon leading examples of battered states resting on tottering political, economic, and social foundations. This instability threatens effective internal sovereignty and accelerates state failure, challenging not only the individual countries but regional security at large. Dynamics in the region also continue to affect the international arena. Given that the decade since the Arab upheaval can be described and studied from different perspectives with a variety of methodologies, we as editors were faced with challenging questions on how to approach the issue. On the one hand, it was important for us to analyze thoroughly key countries in the region, and to provide a comprehensive picture of the processes and trends underway in individual states. On the other hand, it was also important for us to present an overall regional perspective, assessing changes in the regional architecture and comparing events and processes across the various countries. In addition, we sought to map trends in the regional system, and to address Israel’s position in the region during and after the upheaval. Early on, doubts arose as to the very existence of a regional system according to familiar meanings that were formerly regular mainstays of our research. Another dilemma involved the balance between the ontological discussion, i.e., describing and analyzing the regional situation that has emerged in the past decade, and the epistemological debate surrounding the way we view and perceive the changes that have occurred in the region from a theoretical and methodological standpoint. In tackling these and other conceptual challenges, we engaged in several thoughtful, searching discussions, which led to interesting observations and insights. It was clear to us that any choice about how to organize this special issue would limit certain topics, insofar as its scope covers a decade, many countries, a range of processes, and numerous actors. Aiming at a comprehensive compilation that would be relevant in the long term, we decided on five thematic sections, each represented by articles relating to core issues and phenomena, with the goal of examining countries and seminal events as landmarks or test cases for the broader conceptualizations and analyses. The first theme concerns the regional architecture—the structure and characteristics of the regional system. The second deals with the status of political ideas and ideologies in the region. The third addresses public opinion in the Middle East, which has emerged as an element setting in motion significant political processes in the region. The fourth offers a demographic and economic perspective of the Middle East. The fifth examines the intersection of the regional and international arenas. We adapted the sections of the regular periodical to the special issue. In the book review section, we chose to critique books that discuss broad topics concerning the general regional order; so too with the academic survey of research about the regional upheaval published during the past decade. We devoted the professional symposium to a meeting of scholars and experts to discuss the significance and consequences for Israel of the regional upheaval. In this framework, 4 Strategic Assessment | Volume 24 | No. 1 | January 2021 we tried to understand Israel’s position in the regional order during the upheaval and thereafter, and to highlight the opportunities and challenges for Israel from the perspective of a decade. We chose to end the issue with an epilogue by Prof. Shlomo Avineri, a renowned professor of political science and one of the leading scholars in Israel and worldwide in the field. In his article, Prof. Avineri presents a unique analysis with a broad perspective that incorporates his insights at the level of the international order, the regional order, and the implications for Israel. We devoted several months to this special issue, and many partners in the effort deserve our gratitude. Heartfelt thanks go to Dr. Sarah Feuer, who participated in the project as a guest editor and devoted herself to the task with exceptional dedication and diligence. We also thank the scholars at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, and especially the director of research, Dr. Brandon Friedman, for their cooperation and contributions to the issue. We wish to thank INSS Deputy Director Brig. Gen. (ret.) Itai Brun for his encouragement and excellent advice, and for moderating the fruitful symposium. Special and heartfelt thanks are due to the dedicated language editors: Dr. Judith Rosen, associate editor of the periodical, whose professionalism and diligence helped us produce the English-language version of the issue, and Hebrew editor Mira Yallin, who helped us bring the issue to the finish line with efficiency and dedication, despite the exceptional number of articles and the short timetable. We hope you find the issue engaging and thought-provoking. Kobi Michael and Carmit Valensi, Editors, Strategic Assessment Sarah Feuer, Guest Editor Regional Architecture and Strategic Competition Protest against the government in Algeria, June 2019. Photo: Akechii (CC BY-SA 4.0) In Search of a Regional Order: The Struggle over the Shape of the Middle East Itai Brun and Sarah Feuer This article describes the regional architecture of the Middle East today using a systemic approach and employing terms like “regional order” in the sense of a dynamic structure rather than an organized, static arrangement. The central argument is that the defining feature of the regional order in the last decade has been a growing struggle over the shape of the Middle East, playing out on two levels: a clash between competing camps seeking to shape the contours and dominant features of the broader regional order, and a confrontation within the individual states between publics and governing elites (including, in some cases, militaries) over core economic, governance, and identity-related issues.