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Military Disengagement on the Siachen Glacier 0 a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 a CMC 0 OCCASIONALPAPERS 0 0 0 0 0 e 0 0 Freezing the Fighting: Military 0 Disengagement on the Siachen Glacier 0 0 0 0 Samina Ahmed 0 0 Consultant, The Asia Foundation, 0 Islamabad, Pakistan a 0 Varun Sahni 0 a Professor, Jawaharlal Nehm University, 0 New Delhi, India 0 a 0 0 0 0 e 0 e 0 0 0 a OPERATIVE MONITORINGCENTER _____~ e 0 0 0 0 0 e 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 e 0 0 0 0 a Issued by Sandia National Laboratories, operated for the United States Department of Energy 0 by Sandia Corporation. e NOTICE: This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United 0 States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of 0 their employees, nor any of their contractors, subcontractors, or their employees, makes any 0 warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or 0 represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific e commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, 0 does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the 0 United States Government, any agency thereof, or any of their contractors or subcontractors. 0 The views and opinions expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United 0 States Government, any agency thereof, or any of their contractors. 0 0 Printed in the United States of America. This report has been reproduced directly from the best 0 available copy. 0 0 Available to DOE and DOE contractors from 0 Office of Scientific and Technical Information 0 PO Box 62 Oak Ridge, TN 37831 0 0 Prices available from (615) 576-8401, FTS 626-8401 0 0 Available to the public from 0 National Technical Information Service 0 US Department of Commerce 0 5285 Port Royal Rd. 0 I Springfield, VA 221 61 0 0 NTIS price codes 0 SAND 98-0505/1 uc-900 March 1998 Freezing The Fighting: Military Disengagement On The Siachen Glacier Samina Ahmed Consultant, The Asia Foundation, Islamabad, Pakistan Varun Sahni Professor, Jawaharlal NebUniversity, New Delhi, India Cooperative Monitoring Center Occasional Paper/ 1 (rtr) Sandia National laboratories Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. 0 0 Freezing the Fighting: 0 0 0 0 a a 0 The Cooperative Monitoring Center (CMC) at Sandia National Laboratories assists political and a technical experts from around the world to acquire the technology-based tools they need to e assess, design, analyze and implement nonproliferation, arms control and other cooperative e security measures. As part of its mission, the CMC sponsors research on cooperative security a and the role of technology. Reports of that work are provided through the Occasional Papers e series. Research is conducted by Sandia staff as well as visiting scholars. The CMC visiting e scholars program is administered by the Institute for Public Policy at the University of New e Mexico. For additional information on the programs of the CMC, visit the CMC home page on 0 the World Wide Web at <http://www.cmc.sandia.gov> or write to: 0 0 Cooperative Monitoring Center Sandia National Laboratories e Mail Stop 1373 0 Albuquerque, NM 87185-1373 0 0 For specific information on this report contact: Kent L. Biringer at the above address. 0 0 0 This report was prepared by Sandia National Laboratories 0 Albuquerque, NM 87185 and Livermore, CA 94550 e e 8 0 0 e 0 e @ 0 0 e a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 e 0 e e Military Disengagement on the Siachen Glacier Freezing The Fighting: Military Disengagement On The Siachen Glacier Abstract Since 1984. India and Pakistan have confronted each other militarily for control over the Siachen Glacier and its approaches in the eastern Karakoram mountain range, adjacent to the borders of India, Pakistan, and China. The longest-running armed conflict between two regular armies in the twentieth century, the conflict in Siachen has resulted in hundreds of' casualties, mainly because of adverse climatic conditions and harsh terrain. The econoniic cost of sustaining a conflict in that geographically remote and climatically inhospitable region has also been extremely high for both countries. Past efforts h> India and Pakistan to find a mutually acceptable solution have failed, mainly bccausc of mutual distrust and suspicion. This paper examines Indian and Pakistani perceptions, preference, and policies, and identifies options for resolving the conflict. This paper also identifies the most appropriate verification and monitoring technologies to assist policy-makers in ensuring agreement stability and compliance. While a future agreement on resolving the dispute will depend, above all, on the political will of the 1 ndian and Pakistani leaderships, adequate, appropriate verification and monitoring nicchanisms will enhance their ability to reach a sustainable and durable accord of' thc Siachen conflict. 5 Freezing the Fighting: This page intentionally left blank. 6 Military Disengagement on the Siachen Glacier Contents 1. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................... 9 2. SIACHEN’S GEOSTRATEGIC SETTING ........................................................................................... 9 3. THE HISTORY OF THE SIACHEN DISPUTE .................................................................................. 10 4. MAPPING THE POLICY TERRAIN ................................................................................................... 11 4.1 INDIAN PERCEPTIONS, POLICY, AND PREFERENCES ............................................................................. 1 1 4.1.1 Unraveling Indian Policy ............................................................................................... 13 4.2 PAKISTANI PERCEPTIONS, POLICY, AND PREFERENCES ....................................................................... 16 4.2. I The Pakistani Policy Debate ..... ................................................................. 19 5. TAXONOMY OF AGREEMENTS ....................................................................................................... 21 5.1 A POTENTIAL SETTLEMENT OF THE SIACHEN DISPUTE....................................................................... 22 5.1.1 De-Escalation Of Hostilities ............................ .......................................... 23 5.1.2 Disengagement Of Military Forces.. ............................................................ 23 5.1.3 Demilitarization Of The Area ... .............................................. 24 6. VERIFICATION OPTIONS .................................................................................................................. 24 6.1 VERIFICATIONLEVELS ........................................................................................................................ 25 6. I.1 Intrusiveness and Compliance Assurance.. .................... ................................... 26 6.2 VERIFICATIONMEASURES ................................................................................................................... 27 6.3 VERIFICATIONAND AGREEMENTSTABILITY ....................................................................................... 30 7. FREEZING THE FIGHTING: THE LOGIC FOR CHANGE ........................................................... 32 8. ABOUT THE AUTHORS ....................................................................................................................... 34 Figure 1. Composite Satellite Image of the Siachen Glacier Region ............................... .12 7 a 0 Freezing the Fighting: 0 e 0 Acronyms e CFL Cease-Fire Line e CMC Cooperative Monitoring Center e LOC Line of Control 0 0 POK Pakistan-occupied Kashmir a e 0 e 0 a c a 0 e e e 0 0 0 e 0 0 0 0 a a e 0 e 0 0 e I) 0 e a 0 0 a 0 e 0 e 8 0 0 e 0 Military Disengagement on the Siachen Glacier Freezing The Fighting: Military Disengagement On The Siachen Glacier I.Introduction For over 13 years, Indian and Pakistani troops have confronted each other, eyeball to eyeball, for control of the Siachen Glacier and its approaches in the eastern Karakoram mountain range, adjacent to the borders of India, Pakistan, and China. The conflict has resulted in hundreds of casualties caused by adverse climatic conditions and harsh terrain rather than the occasional military skirmish. In addition, sustaining a conflict in that geographically remote and climatically inhospitable region has a high economic cost. Indian and Pakistani leaderships acknowledge the human and economic costs of the Siachen conflict. Earlier attempts to reach a mutually agreeable solution have, however, proved unsuccessful. Negotiations on Siachen are again underway as part of an overall peace dialogue between the two states. Despite the willingness of all involved parties to find a solution to the Siachen dispute, a history of distrust and mutual suspicion derailed earlier efforts. Such hurdles and constraints could, however, be overcome through a variety of measures, including the use of suitable technological mechanisms to verify and monitor a settlement. By placing the Siachen conflict within its geostrategic and historical setting, this paper examines Indian and Pakistani perceptions, preferences,
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