~ " Rural Futures P ·ogramn1 TRANSFORMING AFRICA
A NEW EMERGING RURAL WORLD An Overview of Rural Change in Africa
z nd edition , ...... cc BY NC ND https://creativecommons.org/hcenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.en
Juty2016
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ISBN: 978-2-87614-719-5 An Overview of Rural Change in Africa
znd edition A NEW EMERGING RURAL WORLD An Overview of Rural Change in Africa
2nd edition
Citation: Pesche D .. Losch B. lmbernon J. (Eds.l. 2016. A New Emerging Rural World. An OverviewofRural Change inAfrica. Atlas for the NEPAD Rural Futures Programme. Second Edition. Revised and Enlarged. Montpellier. Cirad. NEPAD Agency. 76 p. This atlas on rura l change in Africa. for this second edition. revised and enlarged. was prepared at the request oft he NEPAD Agency and un der t he overall coordination and guidance of Ibrahim Assane Mayaki, NEPAD Agency CEO. Estherine Lisinge Fotabong. Programme lmplementation and Coordination Director. lt is part of the partnership between Ci rad and NEPAD and benefited from the financial support of NEPAD. AFD and Cirad. Conceived to inform research and discussions during the Second Africa Rural Development Forum (ARDF) held in Yaoundé. Cameroun. from 8 to 10 September 2016. it contributes to the work of the NEPAD Rural Futures programme. The completion of t he atlas has involved 52 aut hors whose detailed list is provided on page 73. lt was coordinated by Denis Pesche. Bruno Losch and Jacques lmbernon. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of Ci ra d alone. Overall coordination: Infographies: Ibrahim Assane Mayaki Jean-Claude Lorente Estherine Lisinge Fotabong Cartography: Scientific coordination: Audrey Jolivot Denis Pesche Bruno Losch Design and layout: Jacques lmbernon Laurence Laffont
English translation: Anna Kiff
OREWORD
The second edition of t he Atlas ''A New Emerging Rural World" is Renewing public policies on t he basis of local development would being published in t he specific context of a general decline in com help to t ackle the root causes by providing appropriate solutions to modity prices and a slowdown in growth in Africa. after our econo ensure people settle and remain in their areas of origin. The develop mies failed to ensure the equitable sharing of the benefits of growth ment of local authorities should be based on their specific characte registered in t he years in which Africa·s growth rate was one of the ristics. t heir ecosystems. their cultural heritage and their know-how highest in t he world. combined with technological innovat ion and learning. especially for young people and women. The downward trend in commodity prices may be a constraint. but it is also an opportunity in the sense that public and private stakehol Although a healthy dose of social measures for the rural sector is a ders will have to be more creative and innovative in order to unlock precondition for its development - as was and is still the case in the new sources of endogenous growth. wealth and inclusive employ developed countries -. the fact remains that far-reaching market ment wit h greater spillover effects for the region's economies. based solutions need to be implemented simultaneously. The pro gressive transition from solidarity systems to mixed market systems Today. t he challenge is to identify new tools for sustainable econo will help to stimulate investment and the development of structural mic growth. this time based on principles of inclusion and equity. activities capable o f laying the foundations for this much -needed while maintaining a steady growth rate. Meeting these condit ions change. will enable African economies to cope with a population that is still booming and with t he ever-growing number ofyoung people looking The governance of our natural resources and t he financial resources for education. training and jobs. These challenges are set against a they generate are t he cornerstone of our structural change: they re backdrop of climate change and resource depletion. calling for the quire appropriate solutions at t he global. regional. national and local use of production techniques that are tailored to environmental levels. challenges. Over the years. t his Atlas. which will gradually evolve into a collabora The principles of inclusion and equity imply adopting spatial and ter tive project. will serve as a reference tool enabling us to monitor pro ritorial approaches and policies that ensure rural areas benefit from gress towards these goals and to take control of our path to achie the same developments and initiat ives as urban areas: that res ving Agenda 2063. lt is therefore a perfect addition to the toolkit ponsible investments are made in rural areas: and that women and the NEPAD Agency will use in it s role as a think tank and an evaluator young people have access to t he factors of production, especially of the implementation of the African Union's rural transformat ion training. land. water. finance. renewable energy. markets and income policies. that reflects t he fruits of their labour. Dr Ibrahim Assane Mayaki ChiefExecutive Offlcer. NEPAD Agency
FOREWORD 2. RURALITY, ACTIVITIES, 3. SPOTLIGHT By Ibrahim Assane Mayaki ...... Page 7 RESOUlCES ...... Page 31 ON REGIONAL CHALLENGES ...... Page 48 Spread 8 Spread 16 Which Pathways for Agriculture Which Regulations for Land-Use Conflicts INTRODUCTION ••••••••••••••••••••••••••Page 13 by 2050?...... Page 33 in the Congo Basin? ...... Page 50
Spread 9 Spread 17 1. STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS •••••••••••• Page 15 Agricultural Experts: Mixed results Well Below The Senegal River Delta: Which Madel Their Potential ...... Page 34 of Agricultural Development? ...... Page 52 Spread 1 Rural and Urban Densification Continues ...... Page 16 Spread 10 Spread 18 The Presence of China in Africa: Lake Tchad: a Multitude of Challenges ...... Page 54 Spread 2 a Role in Future Agriculture ...... Page 36 Youth Employment: a Challenge for the Continent ...... Page 18 Spread 19 Spread 11 The Illusion of Abundance: Agricultural Land issues Mining Activities: New Dynamics in the Vakinankaratra in Madagascar ...... Page 5 6 Spread 3 and Rural lmpacts ...... Page 38 Megacities and Archipelagos: an Emerging Urban Framework ...... Page 20 Spread 20 Spread 12 Territorial Planning ta Meet the Demographic Photovoltaics and Mobile Telephony: Challenge in Ségou [Mali) ...... Page 58 Spread 4 Decentralised Technologies Suitable Migration Dynamics: Contrasted Patterns, for Rural Areas ...... Page 40 Diversity and Potential ...... Page 2 2 Spread 21 Pastoral Mobility: From a Sahelian Spread 13 ta a Sub-Regional Issue ...... Page 60 Spread 5 Trends in Large-Scale Land Acquisition Economie Transition and New Territorial Madel .... Page 24 in Africa ...... Page 42 Spread 22 The Ouagadougou-Accra Corridor: Spatial Inclusion Spread 6 Spread 14 Through Staple Food Crops ...... Page 62 Regional Organisations in Africa : Wood: a Key Resource for Overlap, Collaboration and Action ...... Page 26 Economie Development ...... Page 44 Spread 23 What Should be Done with North Africas's Groundwater Spread 7 Spread 15 Resources? ...... Page 64 Decentralisation in Africa: Blue Gold and its Challenges: an Opportunity for Rural Areas? ...... Page 28 Water Stress in Africa ...... Page 46 Spread 24 Water. A Resource Requiring Setter Governance in West Africa ...... Page 66
Notes...... Page 69
Sources ...... Page 71
Cont ribut ors ...... Page 73 10
13 p.42 M45 Oistribulion of the population of the region M29 Large-scale land deals in Africa. of Segou in 2009 LIST OF MAPS AND FIGURES Fig.14 Number of deals according M46 Occupation of the population by sector to negociation status (2000 to 2015). of activity in 1987 and 2009. Fig.22 Evolution ofirrigated and cultivated areas and Fig.15 Main investor countrie's. rice y1elds in the Office du Niger (1937- 2011) Fig.16 Number of contracts Ml African Sates. p. 12 Fig.7 Average scores for the Free movemenl and area acquired per year. 21 p. 60 ------·······------of people and the trade integration. --······················-····································-······- M47 Uvestockmobility in 2013. 1 p. 16 14 p.44 ------Fig.23 Annual variation in the Sahel rainfall index M2 IFert.ility rate (average 2010-2015). 7 p. 28 M30 Tree cover and deforestation. M16 Decentralîsation : official documents between 1900 and 2010. M3 Urban and rural population ratio in 2015. M31 Standing wood stock and production. andmeans. 22 p. 62 M4 Urban and rural population ratio in 2015. M32 Fuelwood consumption and standing M17 lnstitutional environment M48 Food crop flows ofcowpe a. maize and Fig.1 Evolution of rural population by regions wood stock per capita. of local governments. yam between Burkina Faso and Ghana - and countries (1950-2050). Fig.17 Major exporters of wood in 2015. connections and complementarities. Fig.2 Evolution of fertility rates (1950- 2015). Fig.8 Finance and local budgets. ------···················----······--·-···-·············· 15 p.46 M49 : Maize routes. from track to tarred road. 2 p. 18 8 p.32 M33 Total availability and dependence 23 p. 64 MS Working population engaged M18 Evolution of agricultural income on water resources in 2015. M50 Pressure on groundwater resources in agriculture in 2013. between 2010 and 2050. M34 Water consumption and use and in El Hajeb (Saiss) in Morocco. M6 Number of young newcomers on the labour M19 HaNested area /worker transboundary watersheds in 2015. M51 Water territories in Biskra. Algeria. in 2015. market between 2015 and 2030. in 2010 and 2050 projections. M35 Access to drinking water in 2015. M52 Intensive use of surface water and Fig.3 Structure of employmen 9 p. 34 in Sub-saharan Africain 2014. Fig.18 Main countries of irrigation in 2015. groundwater in Kairouan. Tunisia. since 2010. M20 Share of agricultural experts 1n total experts . . . . .-- -.. ------·-················-········-········-·······-·-·· {average 2012-2014) 3 p.20 16 p. 50 24 M53 Hydraulic dams. conflict and risk M7 Population of urban agglomerations Fig.9 Major agricultural exporting countries M36 Land use conflicts in the Congo Basin. of water confliçts in West Afnca. of over 10,000 inhabitants. in 201 4. M37 Overlap between logging concessions M54 Farming irrigated system M8 Urban population centres within Fig.10 Share of the main groups of products and mining titles. in WestAfrica. 100km radius. in total agricultural experts in 2014. M38 Overlap between mining titles and protected areas. Fig.4 Urban population centers 10 p.36 ····································································- in a 100km radius. M21 Land acquisitions and Chinese agricullural ·········-········-··-·············-··-···--···········-········-··-· 17 p. 52 4 p. 22 demonstration centres. M39 Dynamics of agricultural areas M9 Migration ofpopula tions by countries Fig.11 Amounts of imports and ex ports with the 1n the Senegal River delta. and regions in 2015. rest of the world (average 2012- 2014) . Fig.19 Extension of irrigation schemes in MlO Internai and external remit.tances the Senegal river delta (1965-2015). Chinese direct investment in Africa. to Africa by 2015. M22 ...... - . 18 p. 54 Fig.5 African emigration outside Fig.12 China-Africa trade relations in 2000 M40 Flooded areas of Lake Chad between the continent in 2015. and 2012- 2014. 1973 and 2013. Fig.6 African countries with the largest number of international migrants in 2015. 11 p.38 M41 Poles and trade flows around Lake Chad. ···········································-························· M23 Share of mining in experts by country. 5 p. 24 Fig.20 Modelling the geographical area of Ml l GDP bycountry (2010-2014) M24 Extractive activities and rural dynamics. Lake Chad (chorematic diagram). (proportional representation). 12 p.40 19 p.56 M12 Population by country in 2015 M25 People's access to electricity M42 Changes in population density (proportional representation). in 2013. between 1993 and 2030. M13 Average growth of GDP per capit a M26 Light of the cities at night. M43 Requests for land certificates by municipality (2005-2014) (% of number ofhouseholds). ··········································--························· M27 Average annual global solar radiation 5 p.26 (kWh/m2). Fig.21 Evolution of the number and area of farms M14 Regional organisations in Africa M28 Subscriptions to mobile phone between 1984 and 2024. and countries members. seNices in 2014. 20 p58 M15 Overlaps between the regional Fig.13 Urban and rural electrification. M44 Population distribution of the Ségou reg ion organisations in Africa. Rate of connection to the grid in 2013. (1987) INTRODUCTION
BrunoLosch Denis Pesche Géraud Magrin Jacques lmbernon ~ 12 o• )'""' ...,_ _, ,., ' / • l., ~.,. _J / M1.. African States ' Source: Jpt- NASA. 2014 MOROCCO r ,I ALGERIA WESTERN S~HARA LIBYA EGYPT - _[ CAPE VERDE MAURITANIA ' • ,- I ••• MALI ,r .> NIGER ,,_r ·,~ NEGAL SU N ERITREA \ _., CHAD ,./' GAMBIA ~ -~ ,.,,.f ...... ,,.,--- / GU~ URKINA ASu'lr",1 ~ DJIBOUTI - GUINEA-BISSAU ~ , lENI~ [,À SIERRA LEONE GHAtiA ) NIGERIA , / ETHIOPIA COTE D'IVOIRE I 1 IA 1 rf ; >--tÉNTRAL AFRICAN ~~ REPUBLIC TOGO 1 • CAMEROON , <- --r .,.r---..J.--'\J _,,,....., ,--,._ "- _r~ I t ~._ GANDA 6AB~ CONGoL RW""A"ND"'A.-'ll'----1-~ KENYA o• SAO TOME-AND-PRINCIPE / "If ( DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC ..,-/ OF CONGO /ndian Ocean ' BURUNDI TANZANIA / \ ' SEYCHELLES Atlantic Ocean COMOROS ANGOLA ZAMBIA Om ZIMB NAMIBIA BOTSWA~ _,,._t- / MAURITIUS 2500m h ~ WAZ~ND "(\.. J LESOTHO , L------r------,~THAFRIEAJ SOOOm 30' S NE wDliwiil O SOQ - 000 k,lometres 13 On the one hand. the rapid development of telephony. the - still tentative - progress of access REGAINING CONTROL to energy and the construction of major transport and irrigation infrastructure all vastly increase the attractiveness of some regions. sometimes to the detriment of others. The growth of mining OF TERRITORIAL DEVELOPMENT activities and local and foreign investors' interest in the most fertile agricultural land are often pre sented as new leverage for development. Because of the concentration of capital they imply. the variety of stakeholders they mobilise. the different decision-making levels they involve and their ambivalent impacts on the development of their host regions. these activities illustrate the com Against the backdrop of globalisation with tensions running high, white our planet struggles plexit y of the processes underway. against climate change and the depletion of non-renewable resources, Africa is faced with the challenge ofinventing original development models. These models need to address the conside The other side to rural change. which is notas visible being more fragmented and less publicised. rable requirements generated by improvements in the standard ofliving, population growth and is driven by the efforts of rural families to combine their m ultiple activities. which straddle urban economic diversification, without reproducing traditional growth models that are no longer sus and rural areas and are sometimes supported by remittances. and to sustain places that may be tainable. This challenge is central to the African Union's Agenda 2063 for the structural transfor remote. The growing audience of farmers' organisations gives greater visibility to these actions. mation of the continent. lt implies mobilising ail territorial resources available, in both urban and which often build on the dynamism of local. national and cross-border markets associating far rural areas, in orderto make full use ofthe range ofexisting spatial dynamics. mers. small traders. and entrepreneurs engaged in agricultural and food product processing, who all feed the cities and generate the vast rnajority of current jobs. The examples of the Ouaga dougou-Accra and Nairobi-Kampala corridors, the Senegal River Valley and the Lake Chad region • Enhancing territorial dynamlcs il lustrate this intensity oflinkages between urban and rural areas. These linkages are reshaping the After two decades of structural adjustment policies and their consequences. Africa has entered economic geography with the emergence of new development centres. beyond the outward a new phase of change over the last 15 years: continued demographic and urban transition. sus looking agricultural or mining export sectors that have until now been associated with economic tained economic growth driven by an expanding domestic market. rising commodity prices and modernity in Africa. growth in foreign investment. Although the recent situation marked by conflicts and a slowdown in growth linked to falling mining and o il product prices calls for caution, these changes have mo Between hope. tensio n and conflict. linked in particular to use of and access to natural resources. ved the continent forward from the risk of deadlock to the hope of emergence. there is a growing chorus of voices stressing the importance of including these territorial dyna mics in discussions underway o n development models. The extent of needs connected with These dynamics could give the im pression that according to past transitions observed in other sustainable improvements in the standard of living implies striking a balance between economic continents. the rural world is doomed to graduai decline in faveur of rapidly expanding cities. sup performance. equitable wealth redistribution and respect for the environment. Although Africa's ported by a solid industrialisation process. A careful examination ofchanges in African economies increasing integration in the global economy continues to provide numerous opportunities. the and societies. however. reveals a far more complex. diverse picture. with major differences across vagaries of international markets also imply effectively mobilising the breadth of the African do the count ries and regions of the continent. mestic market and developing the resources provided by territorial dynamics. First. the population boom. with the arrivai of 1.35 billion more people by 2050. will not be confi ned to the cities. which will continue to grow rapidly, without reaching the pace observed over the • Avoiding the excesses and risks ofmetropolisation last 25 years. The population should remain predominantly rural until the 2040s. and population Only a small number of countries situated at both ends of the continent have so far truly initia density in rural areas will continue to increase. with 350 million new people by 2050. Africa will ted their structural change. with more diversified. wealthier economies that are supported by also be the only part of the world where the rural population will continue to expand beyond that territorially balanced urbanisation with a high density of economic activity and more effective date. Next. for the time being. urban economies are not following the industry-based develop integration in the global economy. Elsewhere. economic changes paint a mixed picture. in which ment model observed elsewhere. African cities are largely built on commercial and administrative structural elements still override recent dynamics. Agriculture remains the bedrock of activity for incarne and are characterised by the scale of informai employment. which is often low-skilled. in a predominantly rural population and urbanisation is continuing. mainly in favour of the capitals. trade, services and very small craft and building enterprises. based on an informai sector that makes it difficult to finance the infrastructure needed and to shift the balance to other cities and rural areas. lntegration in the global economy remains fragile. with However. increasing population density in Africa is also shaping territories due to ever closer lin exports of primary commodities that undergo little or no processing (mining. forestry and export kages between cities. rural areas and the small towns connected to them. The unprecedented agriculture). scale of circulations - of products. people and ideas -facilitates the emergence of new territorial dynamics based on the mobilisation of resources of different origins. encouraging innovation and These activities. and especially those in the mining sector. inflate grovvth in absolute terms and. contributing to spatial reshaping. in some countries, stimulate investment dynamics. However. they rarely have any real spillover A r-E>N EMJ0-0 RI..IW. VvffiD 14 effects. create few jobs and are of little benefit to the majority of the population. They stimulate investment. growth in the biggest cities through investment in property and public works. which often leads Meeting this challenge implies moving away from an excessively segmented. centralised ap to neglect of urbanisation from the below. that of small towns. and of agriculture. by fostering the proach to public policies. Despite progress in regional policies and decentralisation. most policy apparently easier option of food models based on imported products. and public investment decisions are still made by states and their sectoral adm inistrations. which These dynamics accentuate the metropolisation movement. which further reinforces the ter are disinclined to take account of the diversity and complexîty of territorial issues. The statistical ritorial imbalances inherited from the colonial period - where the capital was usually the port of segmentation of rural and urban areas, whose boundaries are increasingly blurred by densifica export - t hat were amplified after independence. For political reasons. the states have largely t ion and lifestyle changes. as well as that of public action between sectors and fields of activity. focused on their capitals to the detriment of small and medium-sized cities. These cities have makes it difficult to identify existing economic, social and spatial dynamics and their support. grown in size due to population growth. but without benefitting from public investment in infras There is no sectoral silver bullet - like industrialisation. which is often put forward - that would tructure and services, thereby increasing the appeal of the big city and enhancing population t ackle the scale of the continent's needs. There is. however, an urgent need to reinvest in m ulti differences. Today, there are considerable threshold effects between the biggest city and the sectoral, place-based sustainable development strategies that help to build on assets and to take secondary towns in many countries, and the growing demands linked to this urban macrocephaly into account the constraints inherent in the development of the different regions. are an obstacle to the overall regional development. The si tuatio n is heightened by the horizontal. often poorly controlled nature of urban development. which magnifies network costs {highways. This "re-territorialisation" of public policies calls for the implementation of participatory ap transport. water. sanitation and electricity) and the burden on public finances. proaches. stronger local authorities and concerted regulations between different levels ofgover nance. as well as reinvestment in infrastructure and services in rural towns and small and medium Because of this metropolisation. which is reflected in the progressive extension of large-scale sized cities. lt could help to revitalise local development processes and to create jobs through the conurbations that are increasingly difficult to manage. the public authorities are paying more at densification of rural-urban linkages and better support for initiatives. By simultaneously planning tention to urban matters. to the detriment of "rura l affairs". This trend is encouraged by the new the development of agriculture and that of small towns from a territorialised approach based on economic geography rationale. which sees agglomeration economies as a key driver of growth. the idea of supply and employment basins. the renewal of public policies is one of the key drivers whereas the concentration of activities and people provides o nly very limited leverage where low of structural change in Africa. value-added activities are involved and people are poor. The challenge is therefore to restore balance between regions. which requires support for rural Bruno Losch, Denis Pesche, dynamics and for the development of secondary towns. Failing this. there is a major risk of fur Géraud Magrin et Jacques lmbernon ther rural depopulation and large- scale migration towards the most populated urban areas - with heightened economic. social. environmental and political tensions - and the simultaneous development of spatially marginalised areas with no prospects for the people living there. ln the absence of significant compensatory financing. government withdrawal and neglect of entire regions are an open door to long-term instability. The areas of influence won over the last 10 years by Al Qaeda in the lslamic Maghreb and Boko Haram in the Sudano-Sahelian region. or by the older Lord's Resistance Army in Uganda and its northern and western neighbours. stand as a strong reminder of this harsh reality. • r-osterlng activlty and employment through territorial development Avoiding dangerous dual strategîes that assume areas ofinvestment and growth on the one hand and areas of decline on the other, while meeting the needs of structural change. implies getting off the beaten track of "business as usual" and the traditional view of public policies. This change is ail the more necessary given that Africa is facing a surge in its working age popu lation. which will become the main source of growth in the global workforce. Over the next 15 years. 440 million young people will reach working age. This massive influx of young working- age people is an exceptional opportunity for the dynamism of African economies. provided that the level of training is enhanced and that the economic and institutional environment is conducive to STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS Spread 1 Spread 5 Rural and Urban Economie Transition Densification Continues and New Territorial Madel Bruno Losch, Géraud Magrin BrunoLosch Spread 2 Spread 6 Youth Employment: Regional Organisations in A frica: a Challenge for the Continent Overlap, Collaboration and Action BrunoLosch Jacques lmbernon, Denis Pesche Spread 3 Spread 7 Megacities and Archipelagos: Decentralisation in A frica: an Emerging Urban Framework an Opportunity for Rural Areas? Cathy Chatel, Jacques lmbernon, Denis Pesche, Amadou Diop François Moriconi-Ebrard Spread 4 Migration Dynamics: Contrasted Patterns, Diversity and Potential Sara Mercanda/li, Christopher C. Nshimbi 16 M4. Population density in 2010 M2. Fertility rate (average 2010-2015) Source. Wor/dpop 20/3 Source WPP 2015 2 .2 2.9 2.S 3.4 0 4.4 4.5 2.4 \.. o • _3.3 '- .• ••• • 0 2.3 0 ' No p,.ple/km' 0 3.6 2.9 1.S LJ10·2<11S) D 10-so ID <3 c:) 3 4 D S0-100 - 4-S - 100- 200 0 - s>66 - >200 1 MJ. Urban and rural population ratio in 2015 Source WUP 20/4 Fig. 1. Evolution ofrural population by regions and countries (1950-2050) I Fig. 2. Evolution offertility rates 0.8 Source WUP 20/4 (1950-2015) Sou~e VI/PP 2015 ...Ill! 0 .5 1 000 ••• .. 1.9 900 9 800 / ...... / 8 o.1 o.i 700 _.,,, - ...... 600 ./ _.,,, _.,,, C 7 C ., 0 ~00 - 20 3 23 75 ,q• ••• 49 15 • 23 // 35 54 ~ ~ 44 63· ,,~. M6. Number ofyoung newcomers on the labour market between •56 • 2015 and 2030 73 Representation proportionnai to the number ofnew labour market entrants • Source WPP 2015. WUP 20!4 {see note page 69] Active population inagricultu re/ total in 2013 (%) < 25 D llBYA • - 25·45 31 42 7 NISI~...:...,..._....;::.___, AlGERIA >---< ..__ 45 · 55 MOAOCCO - 55·70 6 - >70 [ Missing data -- CAPE VERDE - GUINEA·81SSAU ·-· ·'[_1...---1-- - EAITREA - DJI BOUll GUINEA MA U SIERRA LEONE CÔTE TOGO BENIN NI GERIA D'IVOIRE GHANA Fig. 3. Structure of employment in Sub-Saharan Africain 2014 CAMIROO N Source Amer et Fox (2014] EQUA!ORIALGUINEA -:-:::-:::-i-4-=:.-- -'---", SAO IOMl·AND·PRINCIPE GABON ~ (ONGO DEMOCRAIIC REPUBLIC Of CONGO a Formal- lndustry 1:Z.- li Formai· servi --' ·. .. .. ·-...... • • • • -•· • • • • • • I • MB. Urban population centres within 100km radius \ .. Source eGeop:J6s 2016 ·-.• •• " • • .... . • • Size of urban agglomentioM • • (No. people) ·• 10000 . •• • • ' ••• , • 100000 ,... .. " . e 500000 • 1000000 .. 0 • 5 000000 \ .. . • '· • .. 10000000 ..• \.'• \'"-- . : ~ • ( ; ' . •••.. ..•... :V: ·'" • . LJ Missîng data •-~,-•;,,. Urban l)<)pul1tion ~ - North Africa - - 2 500 000 5 000 000 C 300 -"' - West Africa - >5000000 :.s- D Missing data ..c"' Central Africa ...C 250 0 - East Africa ~ C 200 .5! - South Africa ·-- Fig. 4. Urban population growth by regions E 150 (1950-2050) -C ·.:0 According to the regional division of the United Nations "'::, 100 CL Source eO.,-opo,\s ~ 0 CL C 50 .a"' ::,- 0 - 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 MEGACITIES AND ARCHIPELAGOS: structure is less and less clear. Current trends trend results in an urban network o rganised in are marked by the proliferation of thousands of archipelagos benefitting from the increasing AN EMERGING URBAN FRAMEWORK small settlements that emerge from the large importance of major roads. as seen in the Gulf rural towns under t he pressure of population of Guinea. throughout Nigeria. the Ethiopian growth. the densification of road networks and Highlands. the Nairo bi-Kampala corridor. the The extraordinary urban growth that charac the extreme south of Mozambique. an urban the tightening of state administrative proce Great Lakes and South Africa. terises the whole ofAfrica is producing dense network has developed around Johannesburg dures. networks oftowns that constitute urban archi (7.2). stretching towards Bloemfontein in the Emerging Africa is currently one of large cities Africa has a wide range of different urban fra pelagos. But the limitations of întermediate interior of the country and to Durban (3) and that are connected to global urban networks. meworks. for which the hierarchy of cities and urbanisation, despite the emergence of sma/1 Maputo (1.9) on the coast. But this connection will only drive develop towns in rural areas, are hampering territorial the degree of concentration is assessed ac ment if it is accompanied by a rebalancing of development and the diversification of local ln addition to these dense urban clusters. cor cording to the index of primacy. ln North Africa. urban frameworks. The limitations of interme econom,es. ridors of urbanisation are emerging between urban frameworks are relatively balanced. with diate urbanisation remain a major obstacle to Lake Chad and the Ethiopian Highlands. along the exception of the megacity of Cairo. Two the densification of urban-rural linkages, the the Bantu line between the borders of Came contrasting types of urban frameworks are essence of rural economic diversification. This • The emergence roon and Nigeria and the Great Lakes. as 1,vell seen in sub-Saharan Africa. "reappropriation of territories" in response to of vast urban clusters as along the railway line and roads leading to First. the network is polarised or even crushed a metropolisation process that has become the m ining regions of the Copperbelt. from Huge urban clusters are developing on the by a large city inherited from the colonial pe difficult to manage is the key to a new deve Pointe-Noire in the Republic of the Congo African continent. ln the Nile Valley in Egypt. riod, which has often become the state capi lopment model. The future development of to Lubumbashi in DRC. crossing Zambia and urban networks will therefore depend on the Cairo. with a population of almost 15.7 million tal (Liberia, Togo, Côte d'Ivoire. Mali. Maurita Zimbabwe before reaching the lndian Ocean densification of rural areas that are the scene peopl e in 2010. is the biggest metropolitan nia: Angola. Central African Republic; Burundi. at Beira in Mozambique. Finally. more isolated of in situ. emerging urbanisation processes area on the continent. On the Mediterra Eritrea. Ethiopia. etc.). nean coast. a highly urbanised coastal strip large cities such as Cape Town in South Africa capable of providing states and regional enti stretches from Tripoli in Libya (1.9) to Agadir (3 3). Luanda in Angola (5.2) and Khartoum in Second. the national urban network is domi ties with a robust urban framework and do in Morocco (0.8) and includes several large Sudan (4.5) result in polarisation in their sur nated by several large cities o riginating in mestic economy. as long as public policies take cities: Algiers (3). Rabat (1.8). and Tunis (1). ln rounding regions. the urban frameworks inherited from the into account the reality on the ground and not West Africa. urban population density is high past. Ghana, Burkina Faso. Cape Verde and just the capital cities. from the Gulf of Guinea coast to t he Sahel • Between macrocephaly and Cameroon have bicephalous urban systems. region. Nigeria is still by far the most urbanised Elsewhere. two or three large cities dominate multipolar frameworks the country (Equatorial Guinea. Chad. Congo: country, with the major cities of Lagos (10 Sl. GLOSSARY Onitsha (6.3), Ka no (3 1) and Ibadan (2 4) Urban networks are stro ngly marked by their Kenya. Malawi. South Africa). Nigeria stands Urban framework: al/ hierarchicafly organised cities Large cities are located throughout the rest of past. Precolonial urban frameworks were deve out for having one of the lowest indexes of pri and their areas ofinfluence within a given territory. the region: Abidjan (4.3) in Côte d'Ivoire. Accra loped by large urban civilisations turning their macy (1 .7) due to the presence of Onitsha and The index ofprimacy: cafcufated by dividing the popu Kano. ln ail cases. macrocephaly is reflected (3.6) and Kumasi (2.2) in Ghana. Bamako in Mali back on the coasts. without the constraints lation size ofthe rank 1 city by that ofthe rank 2 city. in national urban systems by a relative lack of (2.3) and Dakar in Senegal (2.6). ln the Ethio of state boundaries. North Africa developed Megacity: a very large metropolitan area with severa/ pian Highlands. a dense urban network has its urban network within the Mediterranean medium-sized towns. million inhabitants. The UN set the population thres developed around the capital Addis Ababa (3). trade area (Arabs. Ottomans. Persians. etc.). hold at 1 O million people (Cairo and Lagos for Africa). ln the Great Lakes region. Kampala in Uganda The urban systems from t he colonial period • Bottom-up urbanisation and Macrocephaly: the excessive size of one or seve (1.7) and Nairobi in Kenya (4.4) are large cities then adopted a "comb-like" structure oriented ral cities at the top of the urban hierarchy in a given connected urban archipelagos that are connected via networks of small and perpendicular to the coasts. with a main town territory medium- sized towns and regional capitals re that was most often a railway terminus and Far from being contradictory. the dynamics of sulting in a conurbation in western Kenya with a port for exports. which subsequently be large cities and small towns are in fact connec 3.9 m illion people on the border with Uganda. came the capital. Nowadays. urban net works ted since a large proportion of small settle Cathy Chatel, Jacques lmbernon, ln the northern part of South Africa and in have become so dense that this spatial ments proliferate on the outskirts ofcities. This François Moriconi-Ebrard 22 Fig. 5. African emigration outside the continent M9. Migration ofpopulations by countries and regio.n.:s~in:;2;0;1;5 ______in20l5 Source UN 200 and CERI 2013 .,. Source UN 200 - Oceania North America Europe . North America 9,2M Latin America and the Caribbean • 2,2 M Western Europe Eastern, northern and southern Europe Middle East L --, 0 1 000 000 2 000 000 3 000 000 4 000 000 5 000 000 ' ... • ..~ · Humber of African migrants per region of destination outside of Africa Middle East MlO. Internai and external remittances to Africa by 2015 4,1 M Source UN 2ûi5 Migrations towards other continents •• Oceania D 9.2 millions of migrants ' . 0,5 M ® '~ • lntra-African migrations bique (No. of migrants) 1 20 000 · 50 000 - 0 ~ @ @ ® 50 000 • 100 000 .,: D @ ® @ - 100 000 · 250 000 D ... ® ~ 739"'1 ©. 250 000 · 500 000 D y_~ r-i 39 .. @ 0 ~ @@ ® 500 000 · 1 000 000 @ oY~ o ® ... • > 1 000000 @) @ o sl 0 / • @) \ Remittance1 received by countriei D in 2015 (million1 US$) ...@ @ · W. Algtlà l»ifi LJ < lOormissingdata D ( hAd 479284 ll$8C,4, r JJ1S,4 S()2S,68 ----- D 10 - 250 8ut.,fiso D 6S8J4] D 250. 500 • Fig. 6. African countries 0 0 D soo- 1000 © with the largest number 0.-e ofinternational migrants in 2015 - 1000 -2 500 ~ o_ SWlii SMàn South Afria, 820211 - 7000·8000 ~0 Source UN 2ûi5 2015516 - 19000- 21000 hhiopla - t002896 @ :% remlttances re ....D D .. ~·  D ·,· • D D .· ., GOP p c:::J 1.3 2.7 2.3 3.6 3.1 [J 1 1.6 ...•• ' • 0.8 2.9 ·0.3 - . 0.7 4.5 •. a 33 Annual average in constant ·0.3 local currency (%) ••.. 4.S - <0 3.4 Ml3. Average growth ofGDP percapita (2005-2014) D o - 1.s 0 0.1 a • SourceWDI LJ 15·3 2.8 3.3 0.9 - 3-S - - >S 1.5 / -; 3.6 CJ M1ss1ng data \ OPTIONS FOR ECONOMIC TRANSITION: while taking into account adaptation to climate people. and that build on existing development change and the need for natural resource ma potential at the local. national and regional FROM SECTORAL APPROACHES TO THE nagement. levels. lt is unlikely that the option of export based development. to which the Asian model Several sectoral options are being discussed in owes its success. would be replicable in the order to identify the best potential for growth. TERRITORIAL MODEL new international context. lndustrial development. which has traditionally been a major source of jobs in other parts of the world. remains the reference. New possi This change of perspective implies moving Despite recent yet fragile economic growth, Africa minus South Africa - has 38 countries bilities exist. especially with light industrialisa away from the excessive segmentation of structural change in Africa has been slow and out of 48 where annual per capita income is tion in some segments of global va lue chains public policies. with their fragmented sectoral the continent is faced with the need for more less than USD 1 500. where economies are and rising labour costs in Asia. But there are objectives. in order to unlock the potential for inclusive and sustainable growth. This chal predominantly based on agricultural and m i still many structural obstacles (infrastructure. territorial development: better understanding lenge implies rethinking development strate ning activities (vvhich exceed 40o/o of GDP in skills. services) to meeting this challenge in the the assets and identifying and removing obs gies and adopting multi-sectoral and place 25 countries. whereas the manufacturing sec medium term . tacles based on concerted analyses resulting based approaches. tor only exceeds 15% in seven countries). and in strategies for action. finally where the population is still largely rural Agriculture remains a priority sector since it still employs the majority of workers. lts deve • Africa's diversity with a population growth rate of more than ln particular; this approach implies reducing lopment provides well-known leverage which. 2.5% year (and more than 3% in 12 countries). the territorial asymmetries inherited from the Since the beginning of the century. Africa has through the steady increase in agricultural past. with urban structure imbalances infavour been marked by high economic growth that Thus. although sub-Saharan Africa accounts income. enables growth in rural demand and of capitals. where small and medium-sized was not affected by the financial crisis of 2008- for 75% of the African population. it corres the graduai diversification of activities. The towns are unable to actas a real driving force 2009. which impacted the other parts of the ponds to only 4 5% ofthe conti nent's GDP. This agricultural development model adopted is due to a lack of infrastructure and services. world. This growth was driven by the expansion very specific situation is the result of the sub crucial here. at the risk of favouring capitalis lnvestment in public goods at this level of the of domestic demand linked to slow improve continent's late integration into the global eco tic options based on large. highly mechanised urban structure could potentially unlock local ments in the standard of living and to popula nomy. of a restrictive colonial rule causing ter farms. to the detriment of more labour-in dynamics. strengthen the linkages between tion growth. but also by the export boom and ritorial fragmentation that was enhanced after tensive approaches based on family farming. urban and rural areas required for diversifica the rise in prices of the continent's abundant independence. and of recent. rentier urbani lncreasing agricultural income remains a key tion. and develop the very specific resources commodities. This trend is however changing sation relying on administration and raw mate issue that requires proactive public policies. to each territory because ofthe slowdown in growth in Asia and rials. Sub-Saharan Africa is marked by urbani The shift towards a service economy, "leap in global demand for mining and oil products. sation without industrialisation. an exceptional frogging" industrialisation. is under discussion. situation in the economic history of the world. This observation nevertheless masks a variety But this option will struggle to meet demand Bruno Losch Despite these common characteristics. some of regional and national situations. Over and for jobs in sectors that are themselves subject countries that have no mining activities (espe above the political crises that have affected to international competition. Green growth, cially in EastAfrica) have succeeded in initiating or are still affecting several countries. with based on low-carbon technologies. using their economic diversification with an increase major impacts on their domestic growth. dif more labour and developing environmental in experts of higher value-added products. ferent trajectories of structural change are services. could be another alternative. but the observed in Africa. First. it is important to dis specifics have yet to be defined. tinguish the two extremities of the continent • Options for more inclusive - the five North African countries and South and sustainable growth Africa -. which have annual per capita income • Mobilising territorial resources of between USD 3 000 and 7 000. diversified More than ever. the challenge now is to build More t han ever. the scale of the challenge economies. high levels of urbanisation and momentum for growth that will provide decent implies reinvesting in effective development low population growth (between 1.5 and 2.5% j obs for the 440 million young people who will strategies that take into account the sectoral per year). Next. "middle Africa" - sub-Saharan enter the j ob m arket over the next 15 years. and geographic distribution of activities and 26 Ml 4. Regional organisations in Africa and countries members Source auteur M15. Overlaps between the regional organisations in Africa Source auteur , , AMU " IGAO WAEMU CEN •SAD ECOIVAS . , ...... 8ér,in , , ---- Cape Verde V V 8uikina Faso V Gambta , Côte dlvoîre ' \ Ghana ' GuhX'a+Bissau 1 Gu!l)('a Ma:h 1 \ I Ube11a MOf'OC O;iboott (OMESA . . . (~ E1itrea V V V Sudan Eth1op1c1 Ceoual African IGAD Republic CAEMC (h•d Cameroon I I Equat()(ial Guinea , Uganda " \ Gabon / ECCAS " COMESA EAC Repubhc of the Congo Burunch ) Rwanda SO Mean score per REC --RE( --- Othtr organlz:ations Free movement of persons Average/8 RECs 0.517 COMESA ECCAS I AMU SADC 1 EAC l ECOWAS 0.268 0.400 1 0.493 0530 0.715 • 0.800 0,0 1,0 IGAD u ' CEN-SAD 0.454 1 0.479 Trade integration ECCAS Fig. 7. Average scores for the free movement 0.526 l CEN-SAD IGAD l 1 COMESA AMU 1 EAC ofpeople and the trade integration 0.572 0.681 0780 1 0353 0.505 1 . Source BAD 2016 [see note page 68] 0,0 ECOWAS l SADC Average/8 RECs 0.4421 0508 0.546 REGIONAL ORGANISATIONS IN AFRICA: Commission examines 16 indicators reflecting undoubtedly a basis for quieter development the Africa Regional lntegration Index in five key than the growth of large cities. but also a soun OVERLAP, COLLABORATION AND ACTION fields: trade integration. productive integra der one for the African continent. tion. regional infrastructure, the free m ove ment of people. and financial and macroeco nomic integration. The examples of financial ECOWAS - Economie Community of West African and macroeconomic integration and the free States For Africa, with its 1.15 billion inhabitants in Communities (RECs) as "milestones" leading movement of people show that. depending CEMAC - Communauté économique et moné 2015, a market of 54 countries and a young, to the creation of a single continental trade on the criterion selected. the gaps between taire des Etats de l~frique Centrale (Monetary and Economie Community ofCen tral Africa) rapidly growing population, the opportunities bloc. However, although the Abuja Treaty pro regional economic areas vary in terms of per CEN-SAO - Communauté des États sahélo· saha are great. But the continent's transforma vides for the creation of five RE Cs correspon formance. riens (Community ofSahel -Saharan States) tion and development must be inclusive and ding to the five regions initially recognised by To strengthen Africa's position in a context of COMESA - Common Market for Eastern and Sou African regional organisations have a key role the OAU. there are still eight RE Cs at present to play in integrating the different regions into globalisation. continental organisations have thern Africa the process ofchange. Few regional organisations truly benefit from been created under the OAU and later the AU. EAC • East African Community I Communauté est the transfer of sovereignty: this is the case. but The establishment of NEPAD in 2001 reflects ilfrir.aine still very partially, for COMESA and UEMOA. the continent's political will to follow "a path of IGAD- lntergovernmentalAuthorityon Devefopment • New places for public policy SADC and ECOWAS are playing an increa sustainable growth and development. and, at NEPAO - New Partnership for Africa's Oeve/opment making? singly important role in terms of peace and the same time. to participate actively in the SAOC - Southern African Oevelopment Community security. ECOWAS and EAC have introduced AU- African Union The regional integration process is generally world economy and body politic". a community passport to facilitate the move UE1'v/OA - Union économique et monétaire Ouest economically and politically mot ivated. Against m ent of people and to build a regional identity. Africaine (West African Economie and Monetary the backdrop of globalisation. the states are • Agriculture and rural areas: Union) seeking to increase their influence in interna Sorne smaller regional organisa tions. which leverage for integration UMA - Union du Maghreb arabe (Arab Maghreb tional negotiations. The complexity of deve include a number of states for a specific pro Union) Sorne regional organisations have developed lopment processes and environmental issues. blem. have made real progress in term s of specific policies for the agricultural sector: this their cross-border nature and the increase coordination. such as the O rganisation pour is the case of the UEMOA Agricultural Policy in tensions and conflicts are also driving the la m ise en valeur du fleuve Sénégal (OMVS - (UAP) in 2002 and of ECOWAS with ECOWAP Jacques lmbernon, Denis Pesche states to cooperate within the regîonal areas Senegal River development organisation) for in 2005. NEPAD. with the Comprehensive under construction. African integration gained water management ln addition to these re Africa Agriculture Development Programme momentum in 2002. when the Organisation of gional treaties. informai cross-border integra (CAADP). is continuing these coordination African Unity (OAU) becam e t he African Union tion zones are being created in Africa. An eco efforts on agricultural and rural policies. Reco (AU). But there are m any regional organisa nomic zone is being developed around Nigeria. gnising that the majority o f Africans live in rural tions in Africa that form a complex and dyna with cross-border trade. especially in food pro areas. NEPAD's "Rural Futures" programme mic architecture. These organisations overlap ducts. The Sikasso-Khorogo-Bobo Dioulasso seeks to boost action in sectors that drive and some countries are members of several of zone, which straddles three countries but has growth: infrastructure. human resources. them. such as the Democratic Republic of the cultural unity. is contributing to informai inte agriculture. environment. culture. science and Congo. which belongs to ECCAS. COMESA gration. And large-scale transnational urban technology On the assumption of an increase and SADC. or Uganda. which belongs to CO basins are taking shape. such as the one in the in productivity and in agricultural production MESA. IGAD and EAC. This complexity some Gulf of Guinea. which stretches from Abidjan in through market integration. these agricultural times hampers coordination initiatives. since Côte d'Ivoire to Port Harcourt in Nigeria. and rural policy frameworks increasingly take each organisation applies different standards into account the importance of territories, and controls. as with UEMOA and ECOWAS. • Progress in regional integration with decentralisation and greater stakeholder Today. the African Union's integration strate ln order to evaluate progress made in terms involvement in natural resource management. gy is based on the use of Regional Economie of regional integration. the African Union Rural areas in Africa and their sm all towns are 28 a M 16. Decentralisation : official documents and means Source CGLU Afnque. Cities Mance. 20!5 [see box and note page 69) s M 17. lnstitutional environment oflocal governments Source CGLU Afrique Cihes Alliance. 205 /see box and note pags 69) • • D D ..... •.' D "'- •. • • ••• • •- • ~ - • • • • ....., t - . D ' . • Legal and lnstitutional dimension • D •· ,· • - <0.6 D - 0.6 - 0.8 D o.s-o.9 • D - Unfavourable environ ment - >0.9 - Moderately favourable environment D Missing data D Favourable envi ronment • Budgetary and financial dimension D - Very favourable environment • <0.25 D Missing data e 0.25-0.S • 0.5 -0.75 • >0.75 lgypt Tunisii1 10 Zimbabwe • Malawi • • Mali ~ Benin • • Moro«o Keny, "'-. / • Côte d'Ivoire Mozambique 40 I ••• ·~·P.',z!ambla Mauritania Uganda OO~l::Jeti.i -,-'-/_j\~----i __ _ 35 u_~ ,,. • O Tog? Niger "-.Senegal IO u=- ~ 30 > ~ Burkina Faso Gabon ~ ~ -C C~ u > Fig. 8. Finance and local budgets E ~ 25 C ~ C • Rwanda u -~ > Source OCDE 2015 0 E 20 ~~ • Tanzanla 3 > .2 ll, 1S _ _,s,o~ulll= A=fri="-- • -0 ~ Egypt -C C 0 0 '€ ; 10 • 0 C ~c • • •• ..e ·- s ...... • 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Proportion of local govemment expendrtures in national public expenditures (%} DECENTRALISATION IN AFRICA: even if. for problematic issues such as property Decentralisation dynamics are also part of rights. the status of land and access to land, change processes concerning the role of the AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RURAL AREAS? the central authorities continue to play a deci state and the increasing role played by regio sive role in large-scale land allocations. nal economic organisations. The progress of decentralisation. supported by local social ln Africa, as in the rest ofthe world, decentrali party system. The reality of decentralisation • Decentralisation: an dynamics. territorial cohesion and socio-eco nom ic development. may provide a response sation is a key e/ement of the institutional and also depends on the quality of the devolution opportunity to be consolidated politica/ reforms undertaken since the 1990s. of the state and its administration or of the to growing tension surrounding the use of The decentralisation process is on/y just be general functioning of the state in the case of Decentralisation is often perceived and pre resources. and may even make it possible to ginning to materialise in terms of the fïnancial a federal system: in both cases, the articula sented as being able to play an important anticipate or prevent potential conflicts linked and budgetary autonomy of the local authori tion between the local and central authorities role in improving the living conditions of rural to the demographic and political restructuring ties. However, decentra/isation remains pro is a decisive factor in planning the future of populations. through better access to basic underway in Africa. mising for rural areas with authorities that these rural territories. The combined analysis services (health. education). but also through have considerable governance potential for of several criteria makes it possible to examine productive investment and rural infrastructure rebalancing investment, ensuring regional the legal reality of decentralisation. but also its capable of boosting the local economy (roads. equity and managing tension and crises linked warehouses. local markets). lt implies greater The institutional environment of towns and local au financial reality. thorities is evaluated based on criteria concerning five to resources. involvement of local people in their own deve Local taxation is a good indicator of decen fields - local governance. local capacities. financial lopment. which o~en varies according to the autonomy, local efficiency and national institutional tralisation and of the role actually played by • Decentralisation: nature of the political regime. env,ronment. The first map provides a representation the local authorities in the development of a relatively recent process of the formai progress ofdecentralisation by combi their territory. The share of local revenue and Paradoxically. by giving po11vers to the local ning this progress in legal and constitutional terms (3 With the establishment of local political and expenditure in global public expenditure clearly authorities for natural resource management criteria} with the "reality" of decentralisation in terms administrative authorities. each with their own illustrates the fact that. with the exception of a and in particular for land tenure. decentrali of financial autonomy /2 criteria). The second map powers and led by local officiais. decentrali few countries (Tanzania, South Africa. Uganda. sation may contribute to "locally centralising" illustrates the favourable or unfavourable nature of the institutional environment of the local authorities sation is associated with the idea of better Rwanda). decentralisation remains tentative powers that were previously exercised by the b,i.~P.ri on thP. total mark8 obtainP.ri for P.ac.h of thP. 1O villages or customary authorities. lt is not unu governance. By stimulating local development and relatively ineffective. The local authori criteria (CGLU. Cities Alliance. 2015). and bringing together policy makers and ci ties rarely have the budgetary autonomy that sual to find that decentralisation has increased tizens. it holds the promise of new legitimacy would enable them to set up their own taxation the influence of several powerful local stake for public action, which has been undermined system and they are generally very restricted in holders. often officiais. without opening up by the structural adjustment policies of the their expenditure. remaining largely under the opportunities for people to participate in local Denis Pesche and Amadou Diop 1980s and 1990s. Moreover. it is supposed to supervision of central states. Consequently. affairs. have a positive effect on stability. development the impression of greater decentralisation in Today. almost all countries have a legal and and democracy. For rural areas in particular. some East African countries suggested by constitutional framework for decentralisation decentralisation may foster better articulation the maps should be balanced against the fact and the challenge is to strengthen the exis between urban and rural territories. by building that the local authorities have limited powers in ting local authorities to enable them to sti on mobility and trade between rural villages comparison with some French-speaking West mulate innovative governance that facilitates and intermediate towns. helping to boost African countries. territorial development. Another challenge is the local economy through greater proximity With decentralisation. the government of a to improve synergies between economic and between private initiatives. social dynamics country generally operates on three levels: social dynamics. the local authorities and the and local decision-makers. central. regional and local. ln rural areas. the re different state components (ministries and Many different factors are important in explai gions (or provinces) sometimes have powers in administrations) acting in the territory. But the ning the diversity of decentralisation dyna terms of agricultural or rural policies. The local increasing mobility of products. information mics depending on the country: the colonial authorities are playing an increasingly important and people makes governance structures legacy, institutional federalism. or the political role in the field of natural resource management. more complex. RURALITY, ACTIVITIES, RESOURCES Spread 8 Spread 13 Which Pathways Trends in Large-Scale Land Acquisition for Agriculture by 2050? in Africa Benoit f aivrP-Dupaigre Ward Anseeuw, Perrine Burnod, lkageng Maluleke, Spread 9 Jérémy Bourgoin, Saliou Niassy Agricultural Experts: Mixed results Well Spread 14 Below Their Potential Wood: a Key Resource Vincent Ribier for Economie Development Spread 10 Laurent Gazu/1 The Presence of China in A fric a: Spread 15 a Raie in Future Agriculture Blue Gold and its Challenges: Jean Jdcques G Jbds Water Stress in A fric a Spread 11 Stéfano Faro/fi. Jean Yves Jamin Mining Activities: New Dynamics and Rural Impacts Géraud Magrin, Lamine Diallo Spread 12 Photovoltaics and Mobile Telephony: Decentralised Technologies Suitable for Rural Areas Jacques lmbernon 32 M18. Evolution ofagricultural income between 2010 and 2050 Source author CO • [[] çJJ.. CD CO M 19. Harvested area /worker in 20l O and 2050 projections 0 .. Expected relative income Source autror - o to 40% of 20 l O income - 40 to 70% of 201 O income q::,• 70% of 201 O income to stable - Stable to + 40% [IJ - lncrease of+ 40% ' 8 ] Missing data • 25 lncom• ~ - ~ come e ptr worl A rf:>N EMJ0-0 RI..IW. VvffiD 34 Fig. 9. Major agricultural exporting countries in 2014 Source Comtiade 20l5 M20. Share ofagricultural exports in total exports Mozambique (average 2012-2014) s.n,gar Source: Co,ntrade 20i5 Zimbabwe Ug,nda • l" e.xported product 10.3 Namjbia Il 2"'txported product ùmeroon D Other exported produrts Tunisia 0.5 0.1 18.7 Tanzania Ghana 24.3 Kenya • 22.1 11.3 Ethiopia '- •' 6.3* ~ .. 3.2 Morocco 86.4 81.6 Egypt 92* Côte d'lvoirt 47.7 South Africa 0 2 000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14 000 MIiiions US$ 43 91.1 4.7* D 40.2 ... 30.2* ~~ Average 2012 • 2014 (% total exports) 0.1 (': average 2009 • 2012) LJ< 10 D • D 10.30 40 Other products 23.9 5669 Coffee, cocoa, tea, - 30 - 50 r-...J 37.7_*...c,,~ Sugar derlved products 1855 12189M SUS - 50 - 75 Bevera9es 6.2~ 1941 - >75 10.S Cotton 2507 D Missing data Cereals and cereal preparations 2673 Raw and manufactured Fruits and vegetables to~cco 3070 9842 Fig. 10. : Share ofthe main groups ofproducts Oilseeds in total agricultural exports in 2014 4978 Source Comttade 20l5 Animal products Cork and wood 5148 5257 AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS: coffee. cocoa and tea. as well as by fruits and leading exporter of raw cashew nuts. Africa vegetables, each category accounting for 20% provides almost half of all raw nut production. MIXED RESULTS WELL BELOW ofto tal agricultural exports: but the relative im but loses out on kernel exports to Asian pro portance of these products is diminishing. as ducer countries (l ndia and Vietnam), which are they represented 2 6°/o and 21 % respectively also importers. Olive oil is also being revived in THEIR POTENTIAL for the 2009- 2011 period. The balance has Tunisia and Morocco. driven by new demand. shi~ed in favour of animal products (basically fishery). timber. and oilseeds. • The dilution Exports of agricultural products now account Africa still makes a limited contribution to in for on/y 1.3% of ail African exports, a long way t ernational agricultural markets (3.8°/o) and has Fruits and vegetables slightly exceeded tropi of the European market behind those of oil, gas and ore. They are ne not recovered its market share of the 1960s. cal beverages in terms of agricultural exports. African agricultural exports traditionally had vertheless critical for a number of countries, The contributions of the different African The traditional sectors are bananas and pi Europe as their main market. reflecting their where they exceed 50% of total export value. countries differ greatly: the 10 largest expor neapples in the tropical zones and citrus fruits heavy dependence on the pathway resulting Heavy dependence on two or three produets ters account for three quarters of all agricultu in the Mediterranean region. But exports of from the colonial period. More than half of all is the rule in many countries and a source of ral exports. The leaders are South Africa. Côte fresh vegetables or fruits. such as mangos African agricultural exports still went to the Eu weakness. The /ow /evel of processing for d'Ivoire. Egypt and Morocco. which all belong to and papayas. are rapidly developing. The whole ropean Union in the early 2000s: but this pro these products remains a challenge at a time different sub-regions. The heavy dependence continent is concerned by these fruits and ve portio n has been steadily declining since then. when trade partners are diversifying. on a limited number of products is another getables. which are usually a high value-added falling to 37°/o in 2010 and to 34% in 2014. sector. key characteristic of the structure of African Africa is diversifying its trade partners. espe exports. For most countries. 50 to 75°Ai of Cocoa. which alone accounts for two thirds of • Major differences cially towards the emerging Asian countries. exports are concentrated on two types of pro the tropical beverages group. is highly concen African agricultural exports to China and lndia, between countries ducts. Cocoa accounts for 65o/o of agricultural trated in the Gulf of Guinea countries (Côte which were almost non- existent in 2000. have exports in Côte d'Ivoire and 50% of those in d'Ivoire is the world's number one producer increased sharply in the last 15 years with an After an overall decrease since 2000 (when it Ghana. Half of all Egyptian exports are based and Ghana is vying with lndonesia for second average growth rate of 17% and 13% respec stood at 20°/o). the share of agricultural pro on fruits. vegetables and cotton. and 78°Ai of place. followed by Nigeria and Cameroonl. Al tively. The Chinese market accounted for 3.9% ducts in total African exports of goods and Moroccan exports are based on fruits. vege though it is making some progress. as in Côte of African agricultural exports in 2014. and the services now seems to have stabil ised at tables and fishery products. This concentra d'Ivoire. local processing is still a very weak lndian market 3.6%. and their relative impor between 10 and 15%. with variations accor tion of exports on just a few products is o~en point. African coffee production has been pro tance should continue to grow in the coming ding to the mining boom. and even seems to inherited from the imperial self- sufficiency gressively marginalised in countries such as years. be gaining some ground. The sharp fall in non policies of the European colonialist countries Kenya. Côte d'Ivoire and Angola. Tea exports lntra-African trade in food products (cereals. agricultural commodity prices over the last in t he first half of the 20th century. which tar are mostly from Kenya. which is one of the tubers. animal products) should play an increa two years will undoubtedly enhance the role of geted a small number of product s including global market leaders. ahead of Vietnam. Sri singly important role in exports. driven by po these exports in trade. coffee. cocoa and tea. oilseeds and fruits. This Lanka and China. historical specialisation is surprisingly endu pulation growth and urban expansion in Africa. The average values nevertheless mask consi Oilseeds. a traditional African export sector ring, although it has not prevented the emer Once again. there is considerable potential derable disparities within Africa. ranging from along with groundnut s. sesame and oil palms. gence of new exports (vegetables. flowers and here for agri-food processing. less than 1°Ai to more than 80o/o of exports declined in the 1990s. before benefiting in the fishery products). depending on the country. ln the oil producing last 10 years from growing demand from the countries. agricultural products are margina emerging Asian countries (China and lndia in Vincent Ribier lised or even virtually absent from exports. At • A slight reduction in the particular). mostly for palm oil. whose produc the other end of the spectrum. agricultural coffee-cocoa-fruit specialisation tion has been revived (Nigeria. Côte d'Ivoire. products account for the majority of exports in Central Africa). especially with Asian investors. around 15 countries. especially in East Africa. The structure of agricultural exports (2012- New export sectors are also being established. but also in Malawi. Benin and the Central Afri 2014 l by product type is still dominated by the such as sesame in Ethiopia and cashews in can Republic. "tropical beverages" category. in other words Côte d'Ivoire. which has become the world's A r-E>N EMJ0-0 RI..IW. VvffiD 36 M21. Land acquisitions and Chinese agricultural demonstration centres Source Landmatnx. Mofcom. Cffad 2015 Fig. 11 Amounts ofimports and exports with the rest ofthe world (average 2012-2014} Source Comtrade 2015 SUgarane, blofuels Others United States Cl Exports D Hybrid rice, '- • soya, maize • lrnports • •• 2116• Cassava, maize, EU - 27 countries sugucane, biofueb - :,,,....C"" .f / Total e.~potts: • 471 752 million USS!yeor • ~ China Total imports: Rice, heve.a, cocoa, SOQ S1 O million USS!yeor oil palm ___, 7%- • 0 10 20 30 40 D 0 ~ Coton, fruits, rice, O Chinese land acquisitions (ha) • maize, vegetables .. % CMs.wa, mal:ze1 rlct_. \ D No acquisition vtgttli:llts, hHH • Hybrid rlct, sesame, CJ <1000 ..---'---- SOYJ, p.eanut D 1000-7ooo •. D - 7000- 10000 Ria, maizt, whnt, , soya, llvestod< M22. Chinese foreign direct investment in Africa - 10 000 · 20000 D Source Cruœd el Mofcom 2015 - >20 000 • 0 Chinese / totalland 8iofuelas, jatroph~ 6 V. acquisitions (%) cassava, oil palm, soya, sugarcant Chinese farrning dernonstration centres t ' • j • Existing ~---/;{ • 9 Plannned extension • e Planned ....D • • D • -~ • • •• D D Chines,/ total FOI in 2014 (%) Fig. 12 China-Africa trade relations in 2000and 2012-2014 • Source COMTRAOE 2015 D D - <5 • - 5 · 10 1 1 1 1 - 10·20 D 2012·2014 1 - 20·30 - >30 2000 1 CJ Mîssmg data D • 1 1 1 Chines, fDIamount in 2014 2012·2014 1 {million, U$$) • <500 • Agricultural produrts 500 · 1 000 2000 1 Otller products • . A rf:>N EMJ0-0 RI..IW. VvffiD 38 M23. Share ofmining in exports by country Source Es!Jmates by the .AJJthor (see note page 89) ....•• ••• * * D M24. Extractive activities and rural dynamics Source Adapted from Magin 2013 ar,d Al/as Jeune Afnque 2015 Extractive products exports /total exports (%} D LJ< IO 0 D 10- 30 - 30-50 0 - 50-75 D - >75 D Missing dara ...... • ...... -.. Es1,mates made by • • •...... • the author on the •• * ... • /' basis of various sources ••• / î lndustrial extraction Basins ln operation , Main production zone • '-" Artisanal mining ' • lsolated production site ... • 0 Petrol and gas 0 Mines Artisanal mining • • • • Areas where artisanal rnines • • • are numerous ....+ Great rushes (±) Main impact on agricultural dynamia 0 (±) Positive 0 Negative MINING ACTIVITIES: nue from m ining also creates an "urban bias ": m ining companies. which is still lim ited. so a preference for investment in (urban) infras metimes has structural effects - to the point NEW DYNAMICS AND RURAL IMPACTS tructure and public services. and subsidies for of developing a gold m ining cluster in Accra. food imports to the detriment of local farmers Ghana. Mining booms also help to integrate (Algeria. Nigeria). ln the territories concerned. some peripheral regions into national territo industrial mines operate as enclaves with no ries through infrastructure, transport. flows of The mining boom in Africa from 2000 to 2015 After 20 years of lethargy. global growth driven spillover effects in the surrounding area. information and the dreams that go with them has contributed to the economic growth of by China has produced a new boom: the tra (western Mali, eastern Senegal: oil from Aga the continent. The exploitation of minerai re ditional mining basins are expanding and new At the local level of rural societies. indus dem in Niger). sources (ores, hydrocarbons} has two facets, ones are emerging (oil in Sudan. Chad. Niger. trial projects and gold panning have serious divided between industrial activities that are and Uganda: gold in Mali and Burkina Faso). im pacts: the consumption of farmland and ln the 2000s. the wave of regulations on mi a major source of revenue for states and an Artisanal mining rushes are drawing in tens of pastures: the destruction of landscapes (ex ning revenue was extended to the local im artisanal sector that is a massive provider of thousands of miners (coltan and cassiterite in cavations. waste heaps): the diversion of agri pacts of these activities and to improving lin jobs. But questions are being asked about the the Kivu region: sapphires in Madagascar: gold cultural labour: inflation or even food crises kages with the territories. Environmental and effects of these activities on development, in Burkina Faso and Mali. and in Saharan Niger. that are accentuated by poor access to sites: social impact studies. the "prior and informed especially in rural areas. New regulations are Sudan and Chad). These rushes are explained health and environmental risks linked to the consent" required for projects financed by the not enough to correct their adverse impacts. by the price of m inerais and technology impro use of dangerous products (cyanide. mercury): World Bank since 2011. and "local content" lntegrating mining into territorial develop vements. which make mining more profitable. educational wastage: a crisis of values: and (obligations for foreign companies in terms ment remains a challenge. tension between locals and migrants for jobs. of procurement. subcontracting and national This phase is producing different rural configu which always fall far short of expectations in employment) are just some of the tools used rations: the nature of t he activities concerned • Mining booms and rural areas industrial m ines and are inaccessible to low by NGOs and local people to improve the da determines their impacts and labour require mage/benefits balance. Compensation and The current expansion of m ining is part of a skilled local workers. At the end of the cycle. ments: indu striai or artisanal: and whetherthey resettlement mechanisms are gradually being long historical process. The image of Africa's the sudden cessation of activities means an require major infrastructure (bulk commodi improved. even if they have difficulty taking economic extraversion. exports of m inerai raw inexorable slide into poverty for the towns ties such as iron) or not (high value. low weight account of the evolution of impacts over time. materials follow boom and bust cycles that im concerned (Guinea. Zambia. DRC). highlighting m inerais: gold. diamonds). The characteristics Beyond the sporadic good will of one operator pact on rural areas. Gold mining in West Africa their inherent dependence on these activities. of the areas in which projects are implemented or another. the integration of mining activities and its international trade date back to ancient are also important: whether or not they are into the public planning of territorial develop times. ln the Middle Ages. it laid the founda densely populated, and whether or not they • The challenges of territorial ment by t he state and local authorities is a tions for the kingdoms of Ghana and Mali gold are in periphera l locations, etc. development in mining contexts major challenge. panning was a dry season activity conduc ted there to supplement farming. lndustrial • The rural side However. mining activities also contribute to m ining emerged in the late 19th century in economic diversification and to the integration to the "resource curse" Géraud Magrin and South Africa and in the Copperbelt. where of rural t erritories. They distribute revenue: Mouhamadou Lamine Diallo veritable mining regions (gold. copper. cobalt) Mining activities are emblematic of t he "re employment in this modern sector is limited. and urban centres were established. requiring source curse". the idea that in states with weak but salaries are relatively high; the artisanal the organisation ofinterregional flows of food institutions, resource exploitation is accom sector is a major provider ofj obs. but income supplies. ln the 1950s-1960s, m ining invest panied by macroeconomic and political fai is low and very unreliable. ln Burkina Faso. a ment increased substantially in response to lures. Although this notion should be qualified, recent producer of gold. eight indu striai mines global demand: hydrocarbons from the Gulf of the adverse impacts in question are manifold, provided 20 000 direct jobs in 2015. whereas Guinea and the Sahara. bauxite from Guinea. especially in rural areas. Thus. "Dutch disease" artisanal gold panning employed 1 to 2 million phosphates from Tu nisia. Morocco. Senegal refers to the tendency of a new mining sector people. Everywhere. the active phases of m i and Togo: iron from Mauritania and Liberia: ura to penalise existing productive activities such ning cycles boost the rural economy through nium from Niger and Namibia. and gold from as agriculture. especially by drawing in the numerous services (shops. banks. crafts. res Ghana. etc. factors of production (labour. capital). Reve- taurants. bars. etc.) Local procurement by A rf:>N EMJ0-0 RIJW. VvffiD 40 M25. People's access to electricity in 2013 Source JEA Wor/d Energy Ouffook 20!5 M26. Light ofthe cities at night Sou1ce Ginkgamaps M27 Global solar radiation Annual average in kWh/m2 • • e Sovrce. Pv'GfS - JRC 2001-2008 tJl ® •• -ro Rural ele · Missing data • 10 40 Low: 100 twh/m' • C · 1 • . 5 . 40·60 • 5 10 60 · 100 • 'C • 20 Figure lJ. Urban and rural electrification. Rate ofconnection to the grid in 2013 Source IEA. World Energy Outlook 20l5 Mauritius, Tunlsia 0 100 s.,.,hetlts • !gypr, Lyt,la, ....• • 1 • •• 0 0 Mor0< - 61 ·80 0 100000 - 81 · 100 - >100 PHOTOVOLTAICS AND MOBILE TELEPHONY: Through the deployment of off-grid m icro West and Central Africa nevertheless also have systems and autonomous microgrids. solar subscription rates ofmore than 100%. East A fri DECENTRALISED TECHNOLOGIES SUITABLE energy can play a key role in rural electrifica c a is less well-connected. but is rapidly catching tion. More and more experiments are being up. conducted with villages that are fully equipping ln rural areas. the development of mobile tele FOR RURAL AREAS themselves (Senegal. Mali) and the distribution phony is facilitating trade between producers of domestic photovoltaic kits (Uganda). South and sellers on local markets. access to services Africa and Morocco are the countries that have (health, transport). the functioning of family Africa - especially sub-Saharan Africa - is lag to 2.7°/o for population growth. Grey areas still installed the largest number of PVS in recent networks and population mobility. lt is breaking ging behind when it comes to connection to exist and the number of people without elec years, with the implementation of proactive the economic isolation of rural people, but it also energy and telephone networks, but this cou/d tricity is increasing. Whatever the country, it is public policies (including the creation of solar has the potential to radically transform rural eco be an advantage enabling it to direct/y adopt always rural communities that have the lowest power stations. as in southern Morocco) nomies with the development ofnew. innovative local, adaptable and innovative solutions. The levels of access to electricity. ln sub-Saharan information and advisory services, in particular continent cou/d thus become a vanguard in Africa. the rate of connection for rural popu But between Morocco and South Africa there for agriculture (information on prices. rainfall or terms of future energy transitions and decen lations stands at only 17%. compared to 59% is a whole continent and a plethora of energy farming techniques), and especially of financial tralised services. Mobile telephony is breaking for urban populations. 17 countries even have policies for which "good practice" on solar the isolation of rural communities and the services. Mobile phone companies are joining a rate of connection of less than 5% (South energy should be shared. Africa·s lag in terms development ofsolar energy will facilitate the forces with the banking system - or even deve Sudan, the Central African Republic and Chad. of electrification in comparison with the other diversification oflocal economies. loping their own financial services - to provide as already mentioned. but also Sierra Leone continents could even be a unique opportunity options for credit, payments and transfers, even and Burkina Faso) There is an energy divide to adopta different model. one that is decen in isolated areas with highly dispersed popula • Electricity: major grey between urban and rural areas in Africa. tralised and sustainable. thereby meeting the needs of millions of rural people while leading tions. ln this respect. Africa is a leader. and parti areas primarily concernin the way towards a possible energy transition. cularly the countries of East Africa. with the pro rural populations • Africa, a future paragon vision of services that have not yet taken off in ofp~ otovoltaic energy? many OECD countries. This catch up is accom Africa is the continent with the lowest electrifi • Mobile telephony: panied by a leap forward in terms of innovation. cation rates in the world and access to electri Rural demand for electricity is spatially dis connecting rural people in Africa city is an obstacle to its development. But this persed and relatively low in terms of power. A Africa has become an Eldorado for mobile observation characterises sub-Saharan Africa: rural African person consumes between 165 phones. While fixed line penetration is very low Jacques lmbernon while 99o/o of people in North Africa had mains and 600 kWh per year. compared to around - at less than 10% on average - mobile phone electricity in 2013, this rate stood at only 32°tt> 1 420 kWh for urban dwellers and 6 000 kWh services are booming. The total number of (634 million people) in sub-Saharan Africa. ln for Europeans. Consequently. catching up is eight countries, the rate of access to electri a challenge while rural electrification through subscriptions to these services in 2014 was esti mated at 920 million. compared to 578 million in city stands at less than 10°/o. with particularly connection to the national grid remains com 2010, 151 million in 2005 and 15 million in 2000. critical situations in South Sudan. the Central plex and costly due to the low population den This spectacular growth is partially biased by African Republic and Chad. However. in terms sities still observed in many regions. competition between operators. which results of the number of people without electricity. However. there is an extensive. abundant in multiple individual subscriptions to optimise the greatest challenges are in Nigeria (96 mil energy resource in Africa: solar energy. Sun tariffs. lion). Ethiopia (7 1 million) and DRC (61 million). light is estimated at between 1 600 and 2 500 kWh/m2. which is far more than for any other There are. however. considerable differences continent ln order to capitalise on this energy between countries and a divide currently exists Current investments in power grids are not resource. photovoltaic systems (PVS) can now between the countries of North and Southern enough to counter the effect of population be used to produce electricity in even the most Africa. where the number of subscriptions growth. ln recent years. the rate of connection remote regions. and the potential for develop exceeds the number of people, and the other has increased by only 2.3% per year compared ment is huge. countries of the continent. Sorne countries in A rf:>N EMJ0-0 RI..IW. VvffiD 42 M29. Total Number ofdea/s in Africa < Source landmalnx. 2018 20 80 60 Fig. 14. Numberofdea/s -=-,. according to negociation Tunisia 167 129 status (2000 to 2015) ,'.; 31 ~ ,,__ Source land Ma!nx. 2016 25 0 l)~ ~l r ~·~ ,=--: ~] Algeria . 0 No Information libya Wtstern 0 ® 1. D Egypt Sahara Contract cancelled i:, "' Failed • 642 Negotialions failed ® "' '-....,:..;: 617 D Mauritania @ n ~ ·- [l:, Under negotiation Çape Verde in_ Cb lntended MaH l.h. © Expression of interest '. • '28' III. Niger ~ Eritrta ~~· ~ "' -;;;;;;;;;;.a. Sudan Acquisitions Oral agreement 11,@_5••og•I ~ 0 ' Chad Gambia © Burtàn.a ~ Concluded Contract signed / 8 [h_Faso Be~in fl ~ ni Et Ojibouli Guin:;;ss~ ~ Ï [['' fl..,o'.,,@ ~ © LI.L Nigeria c,ntral @ 9=i ~ 0 African Republic , S.uth SudM u.i; ..... @ / ...... : d'ivoire . '\.Togo c:a:- ' 1 Sien a Leone 18 ® Equatorial Cameroon / [ ....._ - ~ n• Somafla Libtfia Ghan, Gu1ne~ ~ L / Lb. @ _ ©[a ffi:Cong' @ (z) U@a Kenya [l_ 0~ . \Gabon © Rwa~ Sao Tome·and·Pnnapt Oemoaatic Republk ,J Burundi Fig. 15. Main investor Sty 4000 60 3 500 ~-~ ef- 50 ~ .., ..: 3000 ..,., 40 ~ ! 2500 .~ 7~ C .Fi e C ~ 0 2000 30 "'., w .., .,~ • .., 0 1 500 ~ C 20 -., Fig.16. Numberofcontracts .,~ ... N 1 000 ~ ..,,... I; ;;; . ~ . ·-. z and area acquired peryear 10 500 / ./"' Sourœ Landmatr,x 2016 / .- 0 ·-,-.-·+..,..-"-,=« ~ 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year - • - Area acquired - • - Humber of deals TRENDS IN LARGE-SCALE LAND • Great expectations? Land and agricultural sector. Asian and Middle Eastern ownership changes without investors. from countries rich in capital but with ACQUISITIONS IN AFRICA limited natural resources. are aiming to secure rapid changes in land production their national food requirements. lnvestors are (initially) seen by local communi But LSLAs are not only a phenomenon led by ties and state representatives as developers: in foreign investors. The growing commercial inte Africa has seen a significant increase in large ment policies. Numerous African govern regions with few o r even no public services. ex rest in land has triggered domestic dynamics. scale land acquisitions (LSLA}. Although LS mentsconsiderthese large-scale investments pectations in terms of benefits are high and the with host country governments. local adminis LAs have since slowed down and their impact as a way to diversify their sources of funding numerous direct and indirect fînancial promises trations. ruling classes and local entrepreneurs on production remains limited, they provide in a context of decreasing development aid. are welcomed. acting as partners. intermediaries and also evidence oflong-term trends ofgrowing com to generate new income. and to modernise However, even though interest in land remains stakeholders and direct benefîciaries. However. mercial interest in land. lnvestment by domes their agricultural sector (in response to the high and LSLAs are ongoing. very few deals very little quantifiable data and information is tic actors receives less media attention, but is loss of confidence in small- scale family-based are actually implemented. Of the 642 deals available regarding the involvement of domes growing in importance. structures and to the misreading of their real concluded. only 199 are operational. with just tic actors in the rush for land on the continent. capacities). This focus o n Africa also result s 4% of the land contracted actually cultivated This information is necessary in order to reflect • Africa - The main target from the continent's reputation. often seen as (representing o nly 1 000 4 70 ha). on the agricultural models to be promoted for for investo ·s fertile and water-rich with large tracts of unde sustainable and inclusive development in Africa. rutilised land. ln addition. for those projects that are imple Large-scale land acquisitions (LSLA) are the mented. info rmation regarding t he actual types result of a global. o ngoing phenomenon. which of investment remains extremely limited: little has accelerated since 2000. The multiplication • Competition over land is known about the level of mechanisation. the of acquisitions has several converging roots. MONITORING LARGE-SCALE LANO and conflicts number ofjobs created or the development of which. besides the lo ng-term trends of popu ACQUISITION outgrower schemes with local fa rmers. and this lation growth and dietary changes. include: The most targeted regions. often characte The data presented here is based on the Land Matrix. questions the real impacts of LSLAs on local agricultural commodity price fluctuations. rised by high fertility and water access. are. which may on/y reflect partial information; it is never development. incentives to produce biofuels (crude oil prices however. also those vvith the most developed theless a good basis to achieve a better understan and EU policies). and pre- and post-crisis new infrastructure and are often the areas most ding of the phenomenon, to formulate hypotheses financial rationales to include land in the diver intensively used by local people. This obser • A number of large foreign and to develop initial analyses. sification of asset portfolios. As such. not all vation therefore challenges the image of LS stakeholders and an increase (see note page 69 ror details on the parameters of monitoring). investments are dedicated to food production. LAs as a development tool. lt also highlights in domestic investors with a large num ber focusing on biofuel pro land use competition and potential and actual duction and other crops characterised by in conflicts over land. The Western countries are still the main inves creasing demand (such as rubber and cotton). tors in land in Africa: the UK is the leading inves Ward Anseeuw, Perrine Burnod, Jérémy "Empty" lands are indeed rare in Africa. The tor in the continent in terms of the number of Bourgoin, lkageng Maluleke, Saliou Niassy Africa is by fa r the most targeted continent diverse and complex local land tenure sys cases considered. The emerging economies are where deals for agricultural purposes are tems are often poorly understood and are not also very present. This is the case of the BRI CS concerned. According to the Land Matrix. it taken into consideration by national law. host countries (except for Russia). especially Bra accounts for 642 concluded LSLA deals ini governments and. subsequently. by exter zil. South Africa. and China (although the latter. tiated since the year 2000. covering an area o f nal investors. which may potentially lead to contraryto popular belief. is not the main player). nearly 23 923 007 hectares (equivalent to Ken conflicting forms of appropriation. Reactions other Asian countries (Singapore) and Middle ya's agricultural land area). The top 10 African to LSLAs at the local and national levels vary. Eastern countries -which are more active in the target countries concentrate half of all listed from open conflicts with strong opposition in northern and eastern parts of the continent due land deals worldwide. Senegal. Mozambique and more recently in to their geographic and cultural proximity. Whe This focus on Africa is strongly related to the Ethiopia. to "smooth" implementation pro reas the Western countries are expanding their host countries' agricultural and pro-invest- cesses in Zambia and Malawi. markets and economic influence in the food A r-E>N EMJ0-0 RIJW. VvffiD M30. Tree cover and deforestation Source ESA 20i0 and FAO 2010 • _, Source. FAO 2014 . 0 0 0 .. -- L 0 0 ....• 0 o . D - ._ 0 C) ... . -- L fl .~· D- -- L L -- - L 0 ~-- 0 ' --~.. .,,,. o< ' 0 o: Annual collection and final use (m') - L • D Annual change in forest area 2005-2010 ./ ,. (% peryear) 0 ,· ~ 53000000 L • D Q Loss > 1 - f \ À Fig.17. Majorexportersofwood D '-.• Source Ol8TC OMTRADE. 20!6 -~ -/) ,l M32. Fuelwood ! --) 1~ consumption and j, â ! standing wood stock 1~ .!--:7 ,.D Annual A r-E>N EMJ0-0 RI..IW. VvffiD 46 MJJ. Total availability and dependence on water resources (See note page 69 J Soorce FAO Aquastat 201S MJ4. Water consumption and use and transboundary watersheds Swrœ FAO Aquastat FAO Co,porate Docvment Rep:JS/tory 3.6 0 96.9 0 0 ....-~ : 96.1 1 33.8 D ·49-/ CHAD ,• 0 0 ~ \Va ter consumption as % Total rtntwablt ,tsourcts ptr of renewable water resources D 1:nhabitant (M1/inh./)tar) • é9 G D LJ 15 000 - > 100 MADAGASCA R ~ 11 Missingdata O; • 0 CJ Miss·ng data Otp,tndency r,te (%) 1 ORAlf(i( \Yaterusu Agriculture lndustry ~ - 0 0 ~ Domestic CAPE --Watershed boundaries 68 Fig. 1. 8. Main countries ofirrigation ...... • : 87 Source FAD Aquastat 20i8 ' 49 . 54 57 4 3.5 ,_ ·- 40 72 a 57 ,_ MJS. Access to drinking 3 94 31 __.. ,. • ·~ • ~ 96 ., _,_ water 74 46 • ~ 2.S - Total population with a«ess tl Source FAD Aquastat 2016 to drinklng wattr{'4) ., _,_ • .c 2 - 0 <60 -~ C 1.5 ,,- - r-- - r- - 60·75 ~ ::E _,_ - 75·80 •• 1 - f-- >--- 1-- 100 - 80 90 _,_ f-- 0.5 >- - >- - -- ~ ~ - >90 - ~--- - Missing data 0 S?: %of rural population with a«t.u to drinki ng wattr ln rtd, l~s1 Utdn $096 ofwro l populotk>n wlth oue.ss to dnnking worer water- saving irrigation techniques are being consume less than 251. developed. such as drip irrigatio n in North BLUE GOLD AND ITS CHALLENGES: Access to safe drinking water for African people Africa. which maybe subsidised. is equally alarming: in many countries. 40°/o of WATER STRESS IN AFRICA the population has a round-trip of more than 30 • Potential conflicts minutes to the nearest source of drinking water Sorne countries are major agricultural water (the UNICEF reference standard). The situation users and depend on other upstream countries. is even worse in the countryside. where up to There is already tension over water use and new 80% of people have no access to safe water. There are many challenges related to water more land implies large water infrastructure disagreements could emerge in response to in Africa: providing safe drinking water for al/; Paradoxically. the countries with the largest projects and the major constraints inherent in economic dynamics and policy choices. but also deve/oping food production without depleting water resources are among those with the the management of vast irrigated areas. and perhaps especially as a result of ongoing water resources; and implementing water lowest levels of drinking water coverage. espe climate change that could reduce water availabi and energy-saving irrigation techniques, cially in rural areas. Conversely. the North African • Water consumption marked lity and increase evaporation. depending on the among others. These challenges can on/y countries and some Southern African countries. be met by mobilising human, financial and by agricultural uses country. where far less water is available, have almost technica/ resources in order to make the Arid and semi-arid countries consume a signi This tension is supposed to be managed by 100% drinking water coverage. Large water re necessary investments and to maintain them ncant proportion of their renewable water international treaties and river basin organisa sources do not therefore necessarily imply that overtime. resources. Egypt and Libya epitomise this. tions such as the Nile Basin Initiative. But in 2013. people actually have access to these resources. consuming respectively all and six times more the construction of the Renaissance Dam in To provide rural populations with access to drin than their available water. which is only possible Ethiopia led to Egypt's withdrawal from the basin king water. investment is needed in infrastruc • Uneven distribution in Libya through massive pumping of non organisation and the escalation of tensions. ture and organisations. and effective. sustai ofwater resources renewable groundwater. Most of the water An Egypt-Sudan-Ethiopia agreement signed nable governance is required. More generally. consumed is used for irrigation. Water distri in 2015 helped to relieve pressure. but there is better water resource management implies Africa has many different types of climate but ion between household. industrial and agri still a latent divide between water "supplier" and major investments in order to both improve and a wide range of population densities. This cultural uses differs greatly in humid regions. "consumer" countries. water supply and to manage demand. At river results in major differences in total per capita w hich have very lit tle irrigated agriculture. basin level. many countries are making conside The conjunction of a resource shared by several water availability. Another important parame The North African countries alone consume rable efforts to set up basin agencies and. more countries and a high level of resource use in one ter is the dependency ratio. which expresses half of ail water used on the continent. If we locally. user associations with the goal of achie of these countries is a major risk factor for the the percentage of renewable water resources include Nigeria. South Africa. Sudan and Mada ving decentralised water governance. Water emergence of water conflicts: in addition to the o riginating outside the count ry: this ratio is gascar. we see t hat just nine of the 53 African management at the most appropriate local Nile. this situation could also occur for the Sene high on average (60% or more) and peaks countries account for a total of 80o/o of ail water level should guarantee greater efficiency. equity gal. Niger and Limpopo rivers and their riparian ("' 80°/o) in countries such as the Republic of consumed on the continent. and local stakeholder involvement in decision countries. the Congo. Botswana and Namibia; but the making .. most spectacular ratios are seen in Egypt and Many of the countries that have developed Sudan. where they reach nearly 100°Ai. highli irrigation are also those that have to import • Poor access to safe water water on a massive scale in order to meet their ghting the fact that these countries are almost in rural areas Stefano Farolfi, Jean-Yves Jamin entirely dependent on water from large rivers dietary needs. This dependence drives them According to the World Health Organization. entering from upstream countries. to further extend and intensify their irrigated agriculture. at the risk of creating water crises. the minimum water requirement to meet basic Surface water is not available everywhere all To t ap into new water resources. they resort human needs (drinking. cooking and perso year round. Outside the equatorial zone. most to pumping from aquifers. but at a rate signin na) hygiene) is 25 litres per capita per day. But watercourses are seasonal and dams are nee cantly higher than their recharge rate (almost higher quantities (50 1/capita/day) are needed ded to regulate them. Water cornes primarily zero in the Sahara) This produces energy to also cover the other basic needs (laundry and from large rivers and o nly the land immediately requirements and lowers the water table, household hygiene). However, more than half of adjacent to these rivers can be easily irrigated. thereby threatening the future of these African countries consume on average less than Making better use of water in order to irrigate aquifers. ln order to protect water resources. 50 1/capita/day for domestic uses. and a quarter A rf:>N EMJ0-0 RIJW. VvffiD SPOTLIGHT ON REGIONAL CHALLENGES Spread 16 Spread 21 Which Regulations for Pastoral Mobility: From a Sahelian Land-Use Conflicts to a Sub-Regional Issue in the Congo Basin? Christian Corn,aux, Véronique Ancey, Jbra Touré, Charles Doumenge, Quentin Jungers, Astau Camara, Jean-Daniel Cesaro Claire Halleux, Lyna Bélanger Paul Scholte Spread 22 Spread 17 The Ouagadougou-Accra Corridor: The Senegal River Delta: Which Madel Spatial Inclusion Through Staple Food Crops of Agricultural Development? Gabriel PUJOi Jérémy Bourgoin, Elodie Valette. Djibril Diop, Spread 23 Amandine Adamczewski, Dj,by Dia, Labaly Taure What Should be Done with North Africas's Spread 18 Groundwater Resources? Lake Tchad: a Multitude of Challenges Marcel Kuper, Ali Hammani, Fatah Ameur. Géraud Magrin Meriem Farah Hamamouche, Sylvain Massue/, Tarik Hartani Spread 19 Spread 24 The Illusion of Abundance: Water. A Resource Requiring Agricultural Land issues Setter Governance in West Af rica in the Vakinankaratra in Madagascar Bruno Barbit1r, Alioune Kane, Bega Ouedraogo, Jean-François Béheres, Pernne Burnod Jean-Yves Jamin, Jean Christophe Poussin Patrick Rasolofo, Jean Michel Sourisseau Spread 20 Territorial Planning to Meet the Demographic Challenge in Ségou (Mali) Jean-Michel Sour,sseau, Mamy Soumaré, Jean-François Bélières, Sidiki Traoré 50 M36. Land use conflicts in the Congo Basin Source OF/lC 10'E 25'E l<>'E N A ' land u5e allocation and conflicts o Capital M Nacional Park - National limit M Protected area i::::J Mining title - Allocation disputes t""1 Forest concession M:57. Overlap between M:58. Overlap between Jogging concession mining claims and mining rights l'.i'f and protected areas 51 WHICH REGULATIONS FOR LAND-USE communities. Sorne of these conAicts are land-use policies. The Commission of Cen currently being resolved thanks to a dialogue tral African Forests (COMIFAC), which brings CONFLICTS IN RURAL PARTS between the stakeholders concerned. with together the ministers responsible for forests the support of donors involved in programmes from all over Central Africa. is conducting encouraging sustainable logging and forest regional discussions on natural resources. lt OF THE CONGO BASIN? certification. the strengthening of protec could act as a catalyst for the intersectoral ted area networks and community-based planning of land-use in the Congo Basin. The dense forests of the Congo Basin are stilf vested. Consequently. deforestation and natural resource management. However. new relative/y unaffected by human activities. more generally the degradation of natural sources of conflict are emerging. especially However, the socio-economic emergence resources remain limited. This situation could with the m ining sector. for which exploration strategies of the countries of the region are radically change in the coming years with the and mining permits are awarded without any likely to radicalfy change this situation by proliferation of industrial logging. agriculture real consultation with the other sectors. increasing land-use conflicts. Forestry and and mining projects. OBSERVATOIRE DES FORÊTS D'AFRIQUE protected areas have to some extent been in • The need for integrated CENTRALE (OFAC - CENTRAL conflict in the past, yet new sources of tension AFRICAN FOREST OBSERVATORY) are emerging with the expansion of mining • The "anarchie" exploitation development policies and agro-industry. These different uses of of natural resources for rural areas Under the umbrella of COMIFAC. and with the sup resources wi/1 require intersectoral land-use port of German cooperation and the European For several decades. industrial logging for tim Union. OFAC is creating a regional atlas on land-use planning. Despite some past attempts at land-use plan ber - historically the only industry present in in 10 Central African countries in order to support ning in southern Cameroon and in several pro them in the design of their integrated land-use stra rural parts of the Congo Basin - has produced vinces of the DRC. no sustainable land-use po little deforestation but more significant forest tegies. This interactive atlas is already helping to iden licy has yet been implemented in Central Africa. tify overlapping land uses. which are often sources of • A rural setting degradation. especially due to the opening of whether at the national or regional level. Only potential conflicts. The provision of this atlas to the that is often marginalised forest tracks encouraging agricultural deve Gabon seems to be working in this direction. sectoral administrations and information updates by lopment. ln the virtual absence of state inter The dense rainforests of Central Africa are the However. the REDD+* strategies that the states these administrations provide the different stakehol vention. this logging industry has supported world's second largest forest area. With the wish to apply and. more broadly. the goal of plan ders with a shared. up-to-date reference on land-use. some rural socio -economic development and which fosters the transparency ofinformation and a exception of some very active corridors. the ning sustainable development that takes into the emergence of small rural communities. common vision ofterritorial development main deforestation fronts are still situated at account territorial inequalities and rural poverty. http:#www.observatoire-cornifàc.net the periphery of the forest block. ln its western Although few other industries exploit natural require intersectoral planning of land-allocation half, people are largely concentrated in towns resources due to the geopolitical situation and and land-use changes. and along roads. and vast tracts of forest re the lack of infrastructure. mining and agricul With the expansion of the agro-industrial and main very sparsely populated (Gabon. Congo, tural plantation projects are likely to disrupt the mining sectors. land uses are in danger of over south-eastern Cameroon). However. in the environmental. social and econom ic condi lapping in rural areas. requiring the establish DRC. the socio-economic and security situa tions of these rural areas. lndeed. these new ment of clear management rules between Charles Ooumenge, Quentin Jungers, tion has resulted in rural populations moving activities are land-intensive and can dramati the different users. and the implementation of further afield. even into the forests. and a large cally alter the local socio -economic environ Claire Halleux, Lyna Bélanger, Paul Scholte part of Cameroon and the Albertine Rift are ment Allocation and land-use conAicts are now seriously impacted by human activities. already growing. ln a general context marked by the fragility Over the last 20 years. logging has become of economic development and by insecurity. far more extensive in the region. sometimes rural people rely essentially on slash and burn resulting in land-use conflicts with pre-exis • REDD /Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation/ is an initiative launched in 2008 and coordinated by agriculture and hunting for their livelihoods. ting or newly created protected areas. due the UN. lts aim is to mitigate global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions produced by the degradation. destruction and fragment.ation offorests . The addition of«+» illustrates the inclusion ofthe increase in carbon stocks. through appropriate Fuelwood gathering (firewood and charcoal) to a lack of consultation between the various silvicultural praclices or plantations. for example. lts principle is to compensa te developing and emerging counlries by means accounts for more than 80o/o of all wood har- government departments. and with the rural ofcontributions from industrialised countries. either through a market or a fund. A rf:>N EMJ0-0 RI..IW. VvffiD AA [NtfNf:VV IF R..RAl. Cl-WŒ N .Am::A 52 M39. Dynamics ofagricultural areas in the Senegal River delta Source SAEO 2012 GéoSénègaJ 2015 Oeo/)ff 2016 MAURITANIA • Atlont,c Ocean Irrigation schemes - From 196Sto 1978 - F,om 1979 10 1999 BOKHOl - From2000to201S LJ A9ro-1ndustnal Schemes OthersarNs • ~ Schemesplanlled , . ~ by PDtDAS project Regulatory zonlng _J Protected areas MBANE Infrastructures and misceUaneous e Main local11:1~s 1 Diama darn -- Major mad NGNITH - - - .. ~ S!(_R _! Municipal bouruj;uy ~ Hydrography FASSNGOM KEUR SYER D MOMAR SARR ' SAKAL • SENEGAL N A 0--- ===20 lo omettes 90000 80000 a Agro·imfustrial irrigati on s ~• ~• Fig. 19. Extension ofirrigation schemes • 40000 f in the Senegal river delta ( 1965-2015J 30 000 Source. SAED 20 000 10 000 0 196S•l 978 1979 ·1999 2000·201S 53 THE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT MODEL • Agro-industry and family spillover effects on t he delta area. improving farming: competition the living conditions of local people? What will FOR THE SENEGAL RIVER DELTA the future be like for pastoral areas where land or synergies? use conflicts are already a source of tension? ln the 1980s. the development of private irri ln spite of the existence of regulatory zoning. gated land was facilitated by improvements in these areas are shrinking under the effect of the water regulation (thanks to the construction of expansion of irrigated agriculture and of agri-bu For more than 50 years, the Senegal River delta Sénégal et de la Falémé - Senegal River Delta the anti-salt dam at Diama near the mouth of siness contract farming. The areas allocated to and Lake Guiers area has seen constant growth Development and Exploitation Company) was the river in 1986 and the Manantali dam further agro-industries are now forcing pastoralists to in hydro-agricultural developments. Today, tasked with developing the management and upstream in Mali in 1989), by the decentrali find new. less diverse rangelands, thereby adding the goals of food sovereignty and economic maintenance of water schemes and water to friction with family farmers. sation of land management. and by access to growth assigned to the agricultural sector supplies. as well as with land management in credit with the creation of the Caisse Natio This mode! of agricultural intensification and by the government are being put forward to these pio neer zones. Almost 25 000 ha ofirri nale de Crédit Agricole du Sénégal bank (1985). opening up to agro-industrial investments is po justify the arrivai of agro-industrial inves gated land had thus been developed by 1978: Today. t he extension of private irrigated land is tentially divisive given the high rural densities. the tors, raising questions about the future of the 13 500 ha of public schemes and 11 500 ha of region. continuing with the growing presence of agro size of the agricultural population and the large foreign private agro-industrial schemes. industries that are investing in water schemes number of young workers looking for places (from 2.5 to 4 m illion FCFA/ha depending on the to settle. Although the choice of the neoliberal • Agricultural intensification From 1979. under the impact of the structural irrigation method chosen). Projects are being development model is supported at the politi based on water management adjustment plans. the withdrawal of the state developed in areas previously reserved for lives cal level, local actors supported by civil society led to a reduction in SAED assignments in tock farming and are backed by the political will are questioning its social and environmental The Senegal River valley is one of the main farm advisory services and the management to promote agribusiness. the modernisation impacts in areas that were previously reserved agricultural regions in Senegal. with irrigation of structural schemes. Local producers. o rga of family farming and the agri-food sector. To for pastoral and agro-pastoral practices. potential of almost 240 000 ha. Within this support this agricultural mode!. land and decen nised in unions, were tasked with developing The future of the delta will depend on the capa area. the delta and Lake Guiers zone (with its tralisation reforms are aimed at improving land their farms and managing water use. The de city of actors to anticipate and develop change agricultural potential of 115 200 ha) is charac tenure security for investors. The World Bank is velopment of private schemes was facilitated scenarios. to organise the coexistence of the terised by a number of challenges concerning accompanying this change through the Senegal by simplified access to land managed by the different types ofactiv ities. and to find synergies the use of land and water resources by agri Sustainable and Inclusive Agribusiness Deve rural communities created in 1980 (further to beti,veen them in order to ensure sustainable culture (whether irrigated, flood recession or lopment Project (PDIDAS). the goal of which is the decentralisation bill of 19 7 2). Consequent territorial development for a rapidly growing rainfed). pastoralism. fishing. tourism and the to promote growth and employment in this part ly. between 1979 and 2000. almost 29 000 ha population. general population (water supply to part of of private hydro-agricultural schemes were of the river with an increase in private produc the capital city. Dakar). The marked intensifi added. tive investment. ln 2015. the project had already Jérémy Bourgoin, Elodie Valette, cation of agricultural activities observed today pre-identified more than 18 000 ha of land that Djibril Diop, Amandine Adamczewski, is being questioned from the perspective of could be suitable for future investors or for the Djiby Dia, Labaly Touré its impacts in terms of land use and practice The government continued to support the expansion ofag ro-industries already present. changes. modernisation of family farming and private entrepreneurship until the m id- 2000s. Howe ln this context. many questions are being asked Efforts to intensify agricultural production be ver. the food price crisis of 2008 resulted in a about the social and economic impacts of this gan when the country gained independence shift in agricultural policy. which now focused agro-industrial development. especially regar in 19 60 with the creation of major wat er sche on the supposed spil lover effects of agro-in ding the role of pastoral activities. the conditions mes, mainly focusing on rice production, and dustries. Thanks to various incentive mecha for access to land for family farmers and the based on the first projects of the 19 50s near nisms. around 25 500 ha of land were thus consequences of newinvestments on their pro Richard Toll. ln 1965. the SAED (Société d:t\mé irrigated between 2000 and 2015. almost duction and yields. More generally. the nature of nagement et d'Exploitation des Terres du Del 11 000 ha of which were developed by foreign interactions between family farmers and agro ta du Fleuve Sénégal et des Vallées du Fleuve ag ro-industries. industries is at stake. Will agro-industry have A r-E>N EMJ0-0 RIJW. VvffiD AA [NtfNf:VV IF R..RAl. Cl-WŒ N .Am::A 54 M40. Flooded areas ofLake Chad between 1973 and 2013 • NIGER Source NASA ... CHAD NIGERIA CAR M41. Po/es and trade flows around Lake Chad March 1973 May19SS June2013 Source author. 20fô ~ Flood plain rlooded area NIGER Manga CHAD Water and landscapes N'guigmi O Rig Rig - Permanent open water Kanem - Quasi-permanent swamps C] lrregularly Oooded swamps Bahr el Ghazal - Areas never flooded since l 963 - A«l'as with high agricultural production -- Main paved roads to the lake Main fluxes ===:> f ish and agricultural products _ ::J :l ;:> Live animais I Secondary fluxes - The Lake Chad shore and the Islands (2 million inhabltants) ==::::;!> Fish and agricultural products - Sahelian hinterland with food inserurity 1'1 D Regional metropolitan centers 1\ NIGERIA Klnd of markets S-Outhem consumer markets (mainly Nigeria) \\ Major rvral markets • • • Crisisline (2014-2016) \\ 0 Fishes \\ Ô agricultural products \\,, 0 Animais ,, e Ali products ,, Urban markets with reglonal coverage ,, Ali products ~ Kousseri Urban manceb wlth local coverage \ 0 Animais // CAMEROON • Ali products MAIDUGURI ~ 50km a • • •' • Fig. 20. Mode/ling the geographica/ area ofLake Chad (chorematic diagram} Source autror 20lS 55 LAKE CHAD: • lnsecurities migrants who were threatening their access to resources. The Lake Chad "oasis" is in A MULTITUDE OF CHALLENGES This situation does not preclude vulnerabi danger. lity. which concerns water first of all. Although there is no doubt about global warming. the • A laboratory IPCC models do not yet give any reliable fore ln 2016, Lake Chad is in the eye of the storm of basins (southern and northern) separated by cast of rainfall changes in this part of Africa. for territorial development? Boko Haram terrorist attacks. These attacks a shoal and surrounded by marshlands. If the What is certain is that the population of the But the worst-case scenario may never happen. are obscuring the threat of its possible disap inflow from the Chari that feeds the southern Chad Basin is going to increase substantially: and Lake Chad could also serve as a framework pearance, which has - wrongly so far - been basin is insufficient. the northern basin re from 51 million people in 2016 to 130 million for new territorial development policies. The the main focus of concerns about the lake for mains dry. This is then known as the Dry Small in 2050. If per capita water use doubles to Lake Chad Development and Climate Resi many years. This unique /ake, which straddles Lake Chad. a situation observed several times meet new food and urban requirements. water lience Action Plan presented in December 2015 four countries (Cameroon, Chad, Niger and between 1973 and 1991. but not since then. withdrawals upstream will reach nearly 10 km3 by the LCBC at COP21 in Paris. with the support Nigeria), is emblematic of the potentia/ for Since 1991. the average flooded area is 10 000 annually. However. if inflow to the lake is less of the World Bank. establishes some possible territorial development based on wetland 2 km (+/- 4 000). The past failure oflarge- scale tha n 15 km3 • the northern basin will not be fed. guidelines for this framework. The challenge is agriculture. An African rural sustainab/e irrigation projects in the basin explains the low Since the 2000s. the revival of irrigation in the to reconcile respect for environmental balances development mode/ cou/d emerge on its level ofhuman water use: 2-3 km3 for 18- 20 basin, both public and private. has demonstra and contributions to food security and employ shores. km3 average inflow. ted the dangers of inefficient. uncoordinated ment. lncreasing resilience in the immediate water resource management. The project for term implies ensuring development: providing water transfer from the Ubangi River to Lake public goods (roads, water. education. electri • From the myth of The Small Lake nevertheless displays great Chad. which was first conceived in the late city) and supporting productive sectors. but also disappearance to unrecognised economic dynamism. lts natural resources 1980s and adopted by the Lake Chad Basin increasing the security of land rights. based on prosperity (fish. water. land and floodplain grazing mar Commission (LCBC) in 2014. makes sense principles of inclusive democratic citizenship. shes) have attracted many m igrants from The droughts of the 1970s and 1980s rei in the face of these long-term prospects. lt The goal would thus be to art.iculate support gnited fears about the disappearance of Lake different origins who have been affected by nevertheless raises a number of questions for agriculture and for spatial management (by Chad. The idea that the surface area of the drought. The lakeside communities (2 million (impacts. financial viability. geopolitics) that increasing the resilience of family farms to envi lake has decreased from 25 000 km2 in 1969 to people in 2014) have adapted to the variabi make its implementation improbable. ronmental variability). regional integration (based 2 000 km2 today due to human water use and lity of the environment through mobility (to on the management of trade and shared water climate change took up the greater part of the follow resources). multi-activity (associating The main threat currently facing Lake Chad is resources) and territorial development (through development agenda until recently. However, farm ing. fishing and livestock rearing. depen violence. The Boko Haram insurgency began in the equipment of secondary poles helping to for the last 25 years. this idea has been at odds ding on the water level. ethnie specialities and 2009 in Maiduguri. Nigeria. due to local political create jobs and value based on rural produc with the realities of the lake. which has made it resources available) and multifunctionality (the causes. lt then gradually spread through rural tion, while balancing the urban network). Lake difficult to design and implement public poli same area of land may sometimes be used parts of the Borno region and Lake Chad in Chad provides the resources - both natural and c1es. for three different activities over the course 2013-2014. Villages have been razed. and tens of a year). Successive endogenous innova of thousands of people have fled to the lake's human - for an innovative development model. Lake Chad has a high natural variability: it is very tions have resulted in a substantial increase in shores in neighbouring countries. The crisis Meeting the political and institutional conditions shallow (three meters at most) and subject to agricultural productivity. These family farming highlights and exacerbates tension linked to for its implementation remains a challenge. high evaporation: its surface area reflects rain systems create value- added (per worker and poverty in the Lake Chad Basin, which has one fall in its basin. The sources ofits two main tri at the territorial level) and far more jobs than of the highest population growth rates in the butaries, the Chari and Logone rivers (85% of those provided by modern farms speciali world. ln Lake Chad, growing tension over land Géraud Magrin inflow). are located in the Sudanian zone. High sing in cereals in Africa. Through regular food had become difficult to manage in a context rainfall in the 1950s and 1960s produced a experts (cereals. vegetables. fish and cattle). of decentralisation conducive to partisan Medium Lake Chad. w ith a single body ofwate r they contribute to food security in a hinterland manipulation. The large numbers of young covering 25000km2• Sincethe droughtin 1973 with 13 million people polarised by N'Djamena islanders joining Boko Haram has been it has been known as Small Lake Chad. with two and Maiduguri. interpreted as an attempt to repel the A r-E>N EMJ0-0 RIJW. VvffiD AA [NFJNIY/ IF R..RAl. Cl-WŒ N .Am::A 56 Source hstat 2013 and projections from Sourisseau et al 20l6 1993 2013 2030 ' ' Po.pulation dtnsity (inh,bit>nts/l M43. Requests for land certificates by municipality (% ofhouseholds) Source Land CVJservatory 2015 450000 400000 350000 300000 ~ é 2SOOOO Level of demand for land certificates (%) :! -0 200000 z0 CJ No land tenure office 150000 CJ <25 100000 50000 25 - 50 0 50 - 75 > 75 CJ Missing data Limits, capital CJ District boundary • Capital of the region • Seat of the district 57 THE ILLUSION OF ABUNDANCE: the result of long-standing conflicts between region. this commitment to decentralising land precolonial kingdoms and then of colonial rule. management has been partially successful: 83 AGRICULTURAL LAND ISSUES but also of the prevalence of malaria and inse out of 91 municipalities now have a local land curity: and they are growing as time goes by. office and most are still active despite the na ln 1993. population densities by district ran tional crisis situation between 2009 and 2014. IN THE VAKINANKARATRA REGION ged from fewer than 20 people/km2 to more But the challenge of access to land. the focus than 100. If effective changes are not made. of land policy for the next 15 years. remains IN MADAGASCAR especially in terms of migration. this gap could unresolved. Since 2015. the region has been widen by 2024. ln the most populated areas. attempting to attract entrepreneurs by pro it is impossible to access new land through viding them with "secure" land within the fra clearing because of a situation of saturation. mework of agricultural investments zones. But High population growth is putting additional of the gap between the land potential an serving as a reminder that uncultivated land is most ofthis land is proving to be already occu pressure on agricultural land and exacerba nounced and the areas actually cultivated. ln rarelyfree from rights and usage. pied by farmers. Knovvledge about the areas ting the challenge of access to land for many this region. as at the national level. agricultu available and about current rights and usage is However. in order to absorb agricultural popu people. Beyond the technical successes of ral population growth is high and is following still lacking. Facilitating access to land requires decentralised land management, territorial lation growth by 2024 without reducing cur the same pattern as demographic growth. a thorough consultation process resulting in approaches need to be consolidated in order rent average farm size. the cultivated area at The secondary and tertiary sectors. driven an agreement with rights holders at the local to enable the implementation of assessments the regional lever needs to be increased by by the beginning of industrial development in lever. and concerted action plans. the regional capital Antsirabe. are incapable 95 000 ha. Without any readjustment. it should of significantly absorbing the workforce from thus cover almost a third of the territory in Migration movements towards the least popu the younger generations. The majority of the the most densely populated districts (>200 lated territories appear very lim ited because of 2 • The paradox: smaller farms population (86°/o of the labour force in 2012) people/km )! strong socioeconomic ties with the territory of origin. the desire for access to m inim al public and an abundance of land still depend on agriculture for their livelihood. Since the 1980s. farms have been compen including people in urban areas. Consequently. services and fears about insecurity for goods ln Madagascar. of the 40 m illion ha (Mha) of sating for the reduction in their land. livestock even with a reduction in population growth. the and people. ln order to stimulate readjust agricultural land. only 3.5 Mha are cultivated and equipment by the intensification of labour number of farms would continue to grow and is ments that can boost development. policies and 10 Mha are cultivable. Despite this poten (disappearance of fallows. double cropping. expected to almost triple in the next 40 years. must therefore focus on developing infras tial. average farm sizes. which are already very and optim isation of organic fertilisers). Des tructure and public services and investing in small. are getting smaller. By extending the pite this. the growing disparities between the farms to facilitate their installation in territories trends observed in the last two agricultural prices of manufactured goods and those of • More and more farms, but little where land is available. but of lower agricultural censuses (1984 and 2004). the average size of agricultural goods. combined with political growth in cultivated areas value. These policies should be driven by a glo farms could be halved over the next 40 years. crises and climate shocks. are keeping most bal vision of territorial development. based on falling from 1.2 ha in 1984 to 0.61 ha in 2024. The very low growth rate for cultivated areas rural families in poverty. ln these conditions. it a reliable assessment of current realities and The extension of agricultural land should help (0 9% per year over the 1984- 2004 period at is difficult for households to purchase and/or existing potential. to remove land constraints on family far ms. but the national level) raises questions about the improve land of lower agricultural quality or to to understand the real room for manoeuvre. it reality of access to land. Potential reserves of establish a new farm in a remote location. is necessary to move up to the regional level in land are far away from where people currently Jean- François Bélières, Perrine Burnod, order to conduct a detailed territorial assess live and situated in harsh environments: supply • The challenge of access to land: Patrick Rasolofo, Jean-Michel Sourisseau ment and to implement a forward-looking and demand for land rarely coincide. The wes the need for a global vision exercise more consistent vvith local realities tern part of the region (the Betafo and Mando and perceptions. to districts). which was the agricultural frontier Between 2005 and 2015. the land reform was in the 1970s. no longer seems to playthis role. based on increasing land security through the The Vakinanka ratra reg ion. one ofthe most po lnfra-regional disparities in terms of popula legal recognition ofcustomary rights to cultiva pulated and economically dynamic parts of the tion distribution. but also of infrastructure. ser ted land and the granting of new competences large island. provides a better understanding vices and quality of life. are very high: they are to local municipalities. ln the Vakinankaratra A r-E>N EMJ0-0 RIJW. VvffiD AA [NtfNf:VV IF R..RAL Cl-WŒ N.Am::A 58 C44. Répartition de la population de la région de Ségou en 1987 Source RPGH 2009 ... . N • A . .~ .:. . . C45. Répartition de la population de la région de Ségou ALG!RIE - . . . en2009 SokÔîo,& • . • , • . ,:Y.~. ·• • . ,IJ/•:• • Source RPGH 2009 MAURITANIE 1 .. ,.,, 1W "' N ... • . A . .~ •:. . . . • NIGER Village • SOOOhbts BURKINA·FASO ~ • 7- Vilfe 0 1300()hbt> 0 6SOOOhbli • 0 130()()0 hbt> ' • U'N • - Route govâronn,ée "" - Fleuve- • c:::::J um,1t communale :., • c:::::J limite de ce,de • ,,.,, ,.,, ·" "' ' • •= /'IV ,w 4'W . I \ Fig. 22. Evolution des superficies aménagées, cultivées, et des rendement en riz à l'Office du Niger (1937-2011} Source Qft,ce du Nger et calculs des auteurs St 1987 <:I 2009 140 000 7,00 C46. Occupation / de la population - Primaire 120 000 - Rendements en riz en hivernage sur casiers 6,00 Seconda1(e - Superfides cultivées (toutes cultures hors vergers) par secteur d'activité • Tertiaire 100 000 - Surfaces aménagées 5,00 ~ ~ '\ ',------' "";:, ~ en 1987 et 2009 \ ..C ! ""C 80000 4,00 -~~ ~.. Source· RPGH 1987 et 2009 C ·o.. .. 'E 3,00 -C (Tominfan _...... 60000 ..e .,.." .,,.. ..C 40000 2,00 "" Baraoueli 13'N 20000 1,00 .~-( 0 0,00 .. ... ,. - ______\__ / 1934/1935 1954/1955 1974/1975 1994/1995 2010/2011 Mt.·n 1!1tt, Années agricoles f 59 Niono road. These three routes for the move Renewed attention needs to be given to agri ment of goods and people (especially with culture, especially with a shift towards produc internai flows of seasonal agricultural workers) tion systems that are better suited to resource TERRITORIAL PLANNING TO MEET link the medium-sized regional towns. carry management. require less costly inputs. pro agricultural production towards Bamako and vide jobs, and promote and develop the skills of THE DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGE govern mobility towards Côte d'Ivoire and Bur local farmers. This means providing support for kina Faso. family farms and their development. especially in the irrigated areas. and exploring agro-eco IN SÉGOU (MALI) The population is expected to more than logical solutions. But strictly sectoral policies are double by 2050. reaching 6.5 million people. not enough. Job creation should also involve with extreme densification in populated areas. amplifying current dynamics and intersectoral ln Ségou, as in most parts of Mali, agriculture ON. and to a lesser extent the area of the This outlook will mean very high demand for synergies. both upstream and downstream of is still the main source of tivetihood for house Office Riz Ségou. are key components of the jobs or income-generating activities. Assu agriculture (especially the potential for product holds. There is considerable potential for country's food security strategy that focus ming a constant employment rate of 70% processing). and anticipating ways to meet the developing irrigation and the agri-food political attention and give substance to the (measured in 2012). 65 000 young people will needs of the people. sector in the region, but economic diversifi region's articulation with the national level. need to find jobs every year by 2035. compa One prerequisite is therefore investment in cation remains a challenge in terms of mee red to only 38 000 in 2015. Cumulatively. this Despite ambitions of economic diversification healthcare and education. combined with popu ting the demand for jobs, both now and in the growth in demand represents around one mil through the development of the agri-food lation and mobility policies suited to the regional coming decades. The development of strate lion jobs to be generated between 2015 and industry and the tertiary sector. considered context. lnvestment must also be made in eco gies at the regional level provides an oppor 2035. tunity for mobilising synergies between stake as a source of long-term growth. this primary nomic infrastructure capable of initiating rapid, holders and between sectors. specialisation has not diminished over the last ln 2035. a large part of activity will still be agri inclusive diversification. based on the develop few decades. lt has even resulted in a decline cultural. Without any major technical changes. ment of small and medium-sized enterprises in the secondary sector since the late 1980s. this growth will correspond to additional agri and on progressive support for the current • A long-standing The tertiary sector is gaining ground. but the cultural land requirements of 1. 1 million ha informai sector. specialisation in the primary jobs concerned are mostly and almost struc by 2035 (compare to 1.4 million cultivated This kind of strategic approach calls for spatial and informai sectors turally informai. today). The plains provide significant poten planning that reinforces the territorial autho tial for new land development. but the pace of rities' resources and their complementarities. The city of Ségou. the capital of the kingdom • Challenges linked to the extensions planned by the ON and the other t he relocation of development policies and their with the same name during the pre-colonial expected doubling irrigated areas needs to be tripled or quadru articulation with the national level. The new gui period. is a commercial crossroads and politi pled to ensure effective adaptation. Moreover. of the population delines for the Malian government's decentrali cal centre. and has preserved its administra population densification will result in increased sation policy. with the establishment of the re tive tradition. Today. it is nevertheless agricul The population of the Ségou region increased pressure on resources and more and more gional development agencies and the creation ture that best characterises the reg ion and its by a factor of 31 between 1960 and 2015, in land-use conflicts between pastoralists. far of the new regions. are a step in this direction. diversity, with in the south. rainfed production other words 2.7 million more people (3.3 m il m ers and agro-pastoralists, in a context of systems based on millet and sorghum. some lion for the whole of Mali). This growth has so insecurity caused by the jihadist threat in the times including cotton: in the central zone. far resulted in the extension of agricultural northern and central parts of the country. The territorial prospective study conducted ,n the Ségou region in 2015 (Sourisseau et al. 2016) uses population between the Bani and Niger rivers. the exten land and rural densification: although urbani projections for 2035 and 2050 that assume the region's sive cultivation of millet: and in the north. the sation is progressing. it is not concentrated • The need for share in the total population ofMali (around 15%) remains Sahel, which is dominated by extensive sys in the three main cities of Ségou. Niono and territorial strategies stable. Based on a fertility rate of 6.14 children per wo tems and small ruminan t breeding. This spe San. lnstead. we are seeing the spread of small man in 2015 (derivedfrom the 6.35 childrenperwoman estimated for the whole of Mali by the United Nations cialisation has been reinforced by the emble towns and villages. especially with new districts Comparing past dynamics with the challenges for the 2010·2015 period). the average hypothesis ofa matic water project initiated in the 1930s by and hamlets. which add to the network of se ofthe next 20years calls for the implementation /inear decline in the fertJ!ity rate has been adopted. with the Office du Niger (ON). which has enabled condary towns. This densification is occurring of effective strategies for action. This implies 3.5 children perwoman in 2050 (and 4. 6 in 2035). the irrigation of plains north of the river cove along three lines: along the Bamako-Mopti creating income-generating, labour-intensive ring more than 110 000 ha (with a potential road (and beyond to Gao): along the Niger activities. while planning territorial development of around 1 m illion ha) and the development River with the municipalities of Baroueli. Bla that takes into account pressure on natural re Jean-Michel Sourisseau, Mamy Soumaré, of rice cultivation and vegetable growing. The and San; and, more recently, along the Ségou- sources. Jean-François Bélières, Sidiki Traoré A rf:>N EMJ0-0 RI..IW. VvffiD AA [NFJNIY/ IF R..RAl. Cl-WŒ N .Am::A GO Main national direction t> t> Rainy season d1,ecttOf'I Cross-t>otder transhuma,xe .. .. Dry season direction Trade charme! Pfolec1ed aŒa MOROCCO ...... (ara.van b Lake r - - • Ctoss-bo Abuja 0 SIERRA Freetown NIGERIA LEONE L<---... GQ CÔTE D'IVOIRE GHANA Lagos CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC ,0_;lom• Cotonou CAMEROON A«ra 0 250 500km Abidjan 2002·2003 1%8·1974 Drougth in Mali, Large•> between 1900and2010 -~ ·.,."': . 1 Source. Touré et al 2012 ~ -2 C 2009 C C · 3 food ui.si.s in Mali, Niger ·4 and01ad 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Annual variation in the Sahel rainfaU index between 1900 and 2010 61 PASTORAL MOBILITY, FROM A SAHELIAN animais being less susceptible to this disease. and non-governmental organisations. and for Not ail of these farmers returned to the Sahel international financial institutions. Interven TO A SUB-REGIONAL ISSUE zone after the crisis. Sorne stayed in their host tions cover different fields. even those that areas. maintaining links with pastoralists in were not previously included in livestock deve their areas of origin and forging new ones with lopment programmes: security. education. those in their new location. decentralisation. human health. etc. However. the stakeholders all have their ovvn priorities But since the 1980s. population growth has and. consequently. programmes overlap in the been altering the structure of pastoral and Public policies have long seen pastoral mobi pastoralists leave their home area. Looking for same field without any subsidiarity or coordina agro-pastoral areas. Human and animal popu lity as a problem, in connection with a some sait (natron). avoiding contagious diseases or tion. These initiatives. most of which are regio lation densities are increasing and pastoral times divisive approach to productive land use. land conflicts and driving herds to end markets nal, could have a greater impact if the national areas are diminishing due to t he expansion of Today, because of the population, land tenure in the large cities are also reasons for moving policies on which they are based were to better agricultural land and of irrigated areas around and economic dynamics at work in ail terri livestock within the region. integrate mobile pastoralism issues. and if re water resources. ln agro-pastoral areas. fallow tories, securing mobility is becoming an gional integration directives were applied more economic and political challenge ofregional or periods are now limited. Moreover. farmers of • The intensification of regional effectively. even continental importance. ten also rear livestock. Competition for water interdependence in changing and rangelands is therefore exacerbated and More secure. better regulated cross-border • Mobility, the core of an territories mobility is becoming very restricted, especially mobilitywould be an example for the regional in tegration of the main sector concerned by sub Until the recurrent droughts of the 1970s and in the southern areas. This is where more and economy of shared resources regional trade in West Africa. This policy chal 1980s. pastoral mobility was relatively unres more transhumant pastoralists are now to be Extensive cattle. sheep and goat breeding are lenge represents an opportunity for decision tricted and confined globally to the Sahel found looking for pastoral resources. The mo the predominant activities in the Sahel region. makers to adopta truly regional approach and to countries. lndeed, from the 1950s. a number of bility of trade has also increased towards the Pastoralism is characterised by close interac work towards greater stability in the Sahel. which pastoral hydraulic works built in dry sub-humid capital cities of the coastal countries. which tions between the family organisation. the also undoubtedly depends on these cross-cut areas opened up regions that were previously are becoming more and more populated. \Nith herd structure and the natural surroundings. ting processes. useless in the dry season because of water growing demand for red meat. and these interactions require a great capa scarcity. After the rainy season. herds thus city for adaptation. Ra ngeland resources are More than in the past. but less than in the Christian Corniaux, Véronique Ancey, moved. where possible. towards wetlands or heterogeneous. scattered and transient: rain future. pastoral areas both within and outside rivers (Senegal River Valley. lnner Niger Delta) lbra Touré, Astou Camara, fall varies by 30% every year a round an average the Sahel are necessarily interdependent and and to post-harvest agricultural land (grazing in Jean-Daniel Cesaro of 400 mm. ln the dry season. surface waters the shared use of land and resources is beco exchange for fertilisation) and the huge terri are rapidly transformed into strings of pools m ing more complex. Cross-border transhu tories under long fallow. and plant cover disappears. making mobility m ance provides welcome supplies of animal an essential condition for the reproduction of During the last drought events of the 1980s. products as well as trade and fiscal revenue at Sahelian pastoral systems. Furthermore. the up to 80% of herds were decimated in some the borders. on markets and in towns. and pro sustainability of this pastoral economy. with pastoral zones. and this mortality opened up vides fodder and fertiliser in the areas crossed. its uncertain. shared resources. depends on areas for surviving herds. Moreover. people bundles of collective rights to the basic factors and animais migrated to the south. in the Sahel • Renewed interest in of production. in other words livestock and countries and even in the coastal countries. pastoralism as an opportunity access to shared water points. lt is based on joining livestock farmers who had been living for integration the division oftasks within the family and rights for decades in northern Nigeria. Benin. Togo. to livestock and to temporary labour. Finally. it Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire. At the same time. the Mobile pastoralism is currently attracting much responds to growing demand on markets that reduction in trypanosomiasis (sleeping sic attention from a range ofd ifferent stakeholders. are located a long way from the pastoral areas. kness) prevalence and crossbreeding by lives Cross-border cooperation is in fact becoming The dispersion of the resources needed for tock fa rmers made it easier to move zebu and a hobbyhorse for some coastal and Sahelian production is therefore not the only reason zebu cross cattle herds to the south. these countries. for bilateral cooperation. regional A rf:>N EMJ0-0 RI..IW. VvffiD AA [NtfNf:VV IF R..RAl. Cl-WŒ N .Am::A M48. Food crop flow ofcowpea, maize andyam between 62 Burkina Faso and Ghana - connections and complementarities Source author 20i6 (see note page 69) M49. Maize routes, from track to tarred road Cowpea Source aulhor 2üi6 (see note page 69/ [} . • < · • ..- • • y l • • •. •• ; ···~ \ • .f• • •. • .; -, ' • Sekondl Maize 2013 crop production Urban population ... Yam (No. ofinhabitants) .• 10 000 1 1 dot = 350 tons / ;~JJ ., 100000 Mm 500000 [ ;~.~.J 1 dot = 100tons 4. 1000000 Beans tt Sekondi {'; \ :.r:. 1dot = 50 tons Transport frequency < 1 % Flow dlrertlon 1 · 5% Yam • • • Southbound S · 9% .. --Northbound 9 • 14 % 14·18% .. •• Natural environ ment •. CJ Protected areas Borders • Nanonal ) forldua-...... Perennial rivers .c. - Lakes and reservoirs D Subnational " Accra ,...1 Sekondl 63 free movement by the Economie Commu intermediate towns. and more recently from THE OUAGADOUGOU-ACCRA CORRIDOR: nity of West African States (ECOWAS). which rural markets. which were previously largely includes the WAEMU member countries. But self-sufficient. SPATIAL INCLUSION THROUGH STAPLE the removal of barriers to intra-regional trade is still limited: while ECOWAS external trade • A cross-border perspective benefits from a common tariff. internai move for spatial inclusion FOOD CROPS ments of goods remain problematic. The centre of gravity of cross-border tracte • Enhancing complementarities - whether formai or informai - has shifted in favour of connections between Ghana and A heterogeneous area situated partial/y within • A corridor outside the WAEMU in food production the CFA franc zone, the Ouagadougou-Accra Burkina Faso. rather than the traditional lvorian corridor is a reaf outsider in terms of regional Because of the route it takes and the formai The main strength of this corridor is its diver outlet inherited from colonial tracte flows and integration in French-speaking Africa, and tracte that gravitates around it. the Ouagadou sity: a Sahel-coastal climatic gradient com the Bobo-Dioulasso zone. ln an opportunistic its food distribution channels foster comple gou-Accra corridor is not really the legacy of bined with a political. linguistic and monetary manner. this tracte has intensified and market mentarities between Ghana and Burkina Faso. colonial infrastructure. The Kumasi-Accra road boundary. This diversity is a source of spatial specialisation has restructured the economic Spontaneously reorganised during the lvorian was indeed built for gold and cocoa in the early complementarities illustrated by the food dis area of the corridor. but it has not become crisis, the resufting flows are restructuring the days of the British Gold Coast. but the Kuma tribution channels for yams. maize and cow more formalised as a result. Although free area, indicating potential that is attracting si-Ouagadougou section. straddling Burkina peas. Yams. which are relatively ra re in Burkina trade is hampered by numerous illegal levies, institutional attention. Faso and Ghana, corresponds to other pro Faso. are grown in the forest-savannah tran strategies to avoid these many obstacles and cesses. Tamale was only linked to Kumasi by sition zone, from the border to the south of border crossing practices range from comple Road in 1920. for administrative purposes and Lake Volta. whereas cowpeas are mostly pro tely legal to completely illegal. As a result. this • The concept of a corridor the recruitment of workers for the south of duced in the north. in the Sahel zone. and to a tracte network linking rural agricultural basins. in West Africa present-day Ghana. The stretch linking Oua lesser extent in Ghana. Maize is grown along intermediate towns. border markets and urban gadougou to Tamale will be consolidated over the whole length of the corridor, with high consumption hubs mobilises different types of The concept of a corridor has many interpre the next decade. concentrations in the southern parts of both stakeholders on different levels. from agricul tations. As both a line of communication and a countries. ture to the retail trade. via transport. logistics project territory. the functions. goals and stake ln terms of the economy and transport. the and finance. holders concerned differ from one corridor successive colonial and national policies Flows of yams go in two directions: huge de to another. With their concentration of trans implemented until the m id-1990s left the mand from southern Ghanaian cit ies and mas Inclusive rural development projects have portation routes connecting remote places. landlocked states dependent on the outside, sive exports towards the Sahel. Movements emerged in the cross-border areas this corri corridors also sometimes enable movement generally through a single sector and a single of cowpeas are mostly towards urban parts dor goes through. These include the Northern within the areas they go through. ln West Africa. maritime outlet. These states then opted for of Ghana, after concentration in the major Rural Growth Programme and the Savannah the "Sahel-coastal" corridors are the legacy of competition between the maritime outlet markets of Burkina Faso. Grown in most parts Accelerated Development Authority in Ghana. colonial export infrastructure. reclassified after points which. combined with the lvorian cri of the corridor. maize follows more complex and the Bagré Growth Pole in Burkina Faso. the countries gained independence as policies sis. enabled the Ghanaian corridor to set itself patterns: the southern half of Ghana has two Over and above the interconnection of the to tackle rural isolation. lnitially the port-railway apart from its neighbours, linked to Abidjan. rainy seasons. but the humi d tropical climate is areas it covers. the Ouagadougou-Accra corri combinations orchestrated the movement of Lomé or Cotonou. Formai international trade an obstacle to drying and conservation. Flows dor provides a type ofhybrid integration. which agricultural and mining products from the hin flows in the Ouagadougou-Accra corridor therefore have interannual variations depen is neither institutionalised nor completely terlands and. in return, supplied these areas with rapidly increased in volume in the 2000s. even ding on harvests. are reversed according to informai. Through the dynamism of its food consumer goods. Infrastructure policies have though this area is an outsider to the West t he climate and are even reconfigured depen distribution channels. this outsider corridor is been conducted in these corridors for decades, African Economie and Monetary Union (WAE ding on prices. lt is not unusual for grain from a laboratory for more general spatial inclusion, with regional integration as a common goal for MU) with no legacy of colonial infrastructure. Ghana to be dried in the Burkinabe Sahel zone which generates jobs and rural development. the different cooperation institutions. However. before returning to its country of origin. As a the effects of communication corridors do not A first WAEMU/Ghana Road Programme was priority. these flows of food crops are intended necessarily result in the development of these launched in 2002 under NEPAD. followed by for urban market s. but they also meet growing. Gabriel Poujol territories. economic integration policies and calls for more diversified demand from the emerging A rf:>N EMJ0-0 RI..IW. VvffiD AA [NFJNIY/ IF R..RAl. Cl-WŒ N .Am::A 64 ~- -· - ·- 4~ ·- MSO. Pressure on groundwater resources 1990 in El Hajeb (Saiss} in Morocco • 1 i • Source author /see note page 69J • .... ·- "'"" -- '""" • • • • ,. . 2014 • '\ . •• ! ! J. • • ! • • ~ t.ttd.•!C'll'Ollto'I Seo •• • •• • fuMS• t. . ! i •• ·~· ...... , < • . .,,,. ~o~ lbb,t'''" ,r.L H.!1rlt'. ""' fU)US&A l ! . • MOIIOCCO ' i •• A ' < Al Cif.RI.A ... 1 ' Kilomt'I,~ • • • • • • • - -- - ·-- - - ·- ·- ' • •• • • • •• .. -.,,,-.· 19;Q 20111 i •• ... . i c:::J Study <11ea • ••• • • Non f~nction1n9 wells i, 113 -.. • Wells 47 47 • T1,1btwe!ls 9 ·os ' § - Roads 1 " r. - Rivers - A 0 o,s 1 ' Kilome11es ...... e llijell - ·- "'"" - - ·- 1 MS2. Intensive use ofsurface water and groundwater in Kairouan, MS1. Waterterritories in Biskra, Algeria, in 2015 Tunisia, since 2010 Sou,ce autllor /see note page 69) Source author /see note page 69) ,....._, Kairouan plain, nonhern li mit -.... Watershed boundary Waten,apes and WHAT SHOULD BE DONE WITH NORTH by groundwater through more than 4 200 wells the water table to drop by 30m over the last 40 1 and 9 000 tube wells. On these new irrigation years. Farmers have had to adapt their irriga AFRICA S GROUNDWATER RESOURCES? frontiers, there has been a rapid extension of tion systems to follow this decline. which has commercial palm groves (43 000 ha in 2014. caused a number of smallholders to drop out 60°/oof which grow the reputed deglet nour of the race. Groundwater has become an important source ralisation of the agricultural sector transfor variety) and intensive horticulture (17 365 ha; ofwelfare in North Africa. lt is redefining irri med ra in-fed farming systems into groundwa of which 4 900 ha produce greenhouse to gation frontiers and supplies water to more ter-based irrigated agriculture. ln 2012. 20°Ai matoes. bell peppers and melons). Biskra's • Sustainable groundwater use than 500 000 farms. However, more than half of the lands in the Saiss were irrigated. 91 °/o of groundwater economy is developing at a very or mining with care? of aquifers, which cater to a minority of far which (45 316 ha) depended on pump irriga rapid pace. The classical limiting factors (mar Most aquifers in North Africa are intensively mers, are declining. North Africa's groundwa tion. Groundwater caters mainly to orchards, kets. capital, labour, land and water) will un exploited. as evidenced by the general decline ter economy is increasingly faced with physical vineyards. horticulture and fodder crops. Due doubtedly emerge. but in the meantime. the in water tables. Often. the official ambitions of and socio-economic stress. to the rapid decline of groundwater tables. agricultural boom is likely to continue. regulating groundwater use relate to the sus a considerable number of wells taking water tainable use of groundwater. understood as • North Africa's rapidly from the phreatic aquifer are running dry and obtaining a new equilibrium in which ground expanding groundwater economy farmers are increasingly installing tube wells to • Kairouan: surface water water use and recharge level out. Hydrologists gain access to the deep aquifer. which is now challenge the relevance of this concept. as the North Africa has a long tradition of groundwa development is inextricably also declining. Smallholders in particular are exploitation of an aquifer with an imbalanced ter use in traditional irrigation systems. Howe linked to groundwater use unable to follow the decline of water tables. as regime is not necessarily synonymous with ver, an agricultural groundwater economy. they lack the resources to install tube wells and long-term reserve depletion. Moreover. expe mainly based on private tube wells. emerged ln the Merguellil river basin in central Tunisia. to conduct intensive market-oriented agri rience shows that reducing groundwater use in in the early 1980s with the availability of cheap watershed development has focused on im culture to pay back such investments. While the short term is not realistic. as it has become technology, increased water demand and proving livelihoods. preserving soil and water groundwater raises tremendous expectations, too important from a social. economic and po recurrent droughts. Groundwater use stimu resources and ensuring flood protection. This especially for young farmers keen to develop litical viewpoint. Sustainable groundwater use lated the intensification and diversification of led to the construction of numerous water their agriculture. it thus also implies conside is thus a fallacy, especially for the aquifers in farm ing systems and became the mainstay for conservation structures and the El Haouareb rable risks: as water tables decline. farmers the south. which have very low recharge rates. more than 500 000 fa rms. lt now caters to 88% dam in 1989. which reduced runoff and stored venture into more risky m arkets and may end lt is therefore better to acknowledge present of irrigated areas in Algeria. 42% in Morocco water upstream. This seriously affected up with debts. groundwater practices as unsustainable and and 64% in Tunisia. However. about half of the groundwater recharge in the Kairouan plain. to focus the debate on what societies want aquifers have been declared overexploited and which was now limited to the area around the to achieve with groundwater in terms of (rural) farmers' dependence on this vital resource • Biskra: new irrigation frontiers dam rather than extending along the whole development. This cou Id be called "mining with means that a possible decline of the ground riverbed across the plain. Meanwhile, ground in the Sahara care". water economy is a serious issue. water development began with public tube Algeria's Sahara is one of the most water-rich wells in the 1970s to supply drinking water to regions in Africa due to the presence of enor the coast and to develop groundwater-based • Saiss: the expectations mous sedimentary aquifers. but with very low irrigated agriculture. Private irrigation rapidly Marcel Kuper, Ali Hammani, Fatah Ameur, and risks of groundwater use recharge rates. Groundwater is increasingly took over to secure livelihoods and to poten Meriem Farah Hamamouche, Farmers in the fertile plains of northern and pumped for agriculture through deep tube tially make profit with high-value crops. Nowa Sylvain Massuel, Tarik Hartani central Morocco increasingly rely on ground wells. While in the past irrigation development days. groundwater use from over 2 000 pri water to intensify and diversify their farming was limited to some oases. private groundwa vate tube wells is estimated to be equivalent systems. These groundwater economies ter-based irrigation has changed the outlook to withdrawals from the 135 public tube wells, have existed for more than 30 years. and each for Saharan agriculture. ln Biskra. the irriga delivering 120 hm3/year. The total ground supports several tens of thousands of hec ted area increased five-fold from 16 500 ha in water-based irrigated area was 20 000 ha in tares ofirrigated agriculture. ln the Saiss plain. 1969 to more than 104 000 ha in 2013. A total 2010. The combined effect ofwatershed de droughts in the early 1980s a long with the libe- of 94% of irrigation water is currently supplied velopment and groundwater use has caused A r-E>N EMJ0-0 RI..IW. VvffiD AA [NFJNIY/ IF R..RAl. Cl-WŒ N .Am::A GG MSJ. Hydraulic dams, conflict and risk of water conflicts in West Africa • S0t1rce. HSM/JRO .. ) 1,-..,~-;l'I,. l :Oiama (19So) Senegal Dams (start•up year} riverdeltt I 1 EXJstir,g .6. Under construction ' * Projecled Watersheds D Senegal basin - Niger basin Q Volta basin D Lake Chad basin -- MaJor nvers Conflicts 0 Delta disturbances ;/) Land disputes ;/) Cross-borde, conflicts Atlantic Ocean Dîsplacements Niger river delt> Former displacements of people upstream of the dam 0 lSO 300 km .à Expected displacements T of people upstream - orlhedams Mauritanla Flooding, flood·re 0 Siirra leone Togo • M54. Farming irrigated systems in West Africa , Liberia Sourœ BM 200!.OCDE 2007 Irrigation schemes Atlantic Ocean 0 lrrigated areas w11h,n -!.·..... ra,nred rarrning systems L..::======::::::. ______: ()~-..L--1..:0~ ~150 JO{)lon 87 WATER, A RESOURCE REQUIRING BETTER Projects for the expansion of large-scale irri bells in neighbouring countries: Nigeria. which gation schemes are therefore being revived. has traditionally sold its electricity at a low cost to Niger in order to avoid the construction of a GOVERNANCE IN WEST AFRICA At the same time. small-scale private irrigation dam upstream on the river. is concerned about is continuing its expansion: hundreds of thou the Kandadji dam. The Fomi dam in Guinea will sands of smallholder farmers are settling along have a significant impact on the lnner Niger West Africa has a relative/y large number of (at around 5%). a situation which is generating rivers and reservoirs or are digging wells where Delta in Mali and downstream. major rivers. Irrigation and hydroelectricity a rapid increase in water and energy require groundwat er is accessible. They produce irri are gaining ground in the region, but are still far ments for households. industries. mines and gated fruits and vegetables through manual The construction of new dams lead s to people from reaching their full potential. Possibilities services. but also for agriculture. However. water lifting or inexpensive motor pumps. being displaced against their w ill. Conflicts exist for meeting food and energy demands governments are struggling to satisfy this de Deep aquifers are still untapped. but their use over access to land are exacerbated in irri from the rapidly growing populations and eco mand and the Millennium Development Goals could intensify with the development of elec gable areas. because the states foster the nomies. International river basin agencies are for drinking water have not been achieved. in trification. Proper regulation will be required in installation of national and international private responsible for coordinating investment and spite of considerable progress. Less than 2% order to avoid their overexploitation. investors in order to im prove food produc resolving disputes. of cultivated areas are irrigated and hydroe tion. fuelling concerns and opposition among lectric installations fall far short of the region's • Setter governance is needed local farmers and their organisations. lrrigated • Untapped potential high potential. Just under 45% of the popula to address risks land also reduces water access corridors for and growing demands tion has access to electricity. around 40°/o of animais. generating incidents that are often which is generated by dams. The authorities and civil society are concerned violent. whereas pastoral conflicts over access West Africa has a number of different climate about the environmental and health situation to wells are diminishing due to the creation of zones ranging from the Saharan fringe to the in the water sector. First. water-borne diseases consultative bodies. Gulf of Guinea. Major fluctuations in rainfall in • Major water engineering still have serious impacts on populations. es the 20th century were the cause of several se projects, a come-back? pecially chronic diarrhoea due to the lack of Better governance of wat er resou rces will the refore become a necessity and should result in rious food crises. For the future. climate fore After a break between the 1980s and the drinking water and/or sanitation (which also an increase in international cooperation. There casts remain hesitant: most models predict a 2000s further to the structural adjustment concerns cities that are often subject to water are several inter- state river basin agencies in slight increase in rainfall that will not offset the plans. water engineering projects. some of cuts). Second. the majorwetlands. such as the operation. Their effectiveness is highlyvariable increase in evaporation caused by higher tem which are quite old. are being dusted off. This lnner Niger Delta. Lake Chad and the flood va l and their capacities could be strengthened. peratures. return is explained by soaring demand for leys. have seen their surface areas drastically They nevertheless provide a basis for effective electricity and food requirements that make reduced and their biodiversity significantly de solutions to sharing the water from the major Surface water and groundwater are relatively irrigation necessary. but also by more frequent graded. Marine deltas. especially those of the rivers. anticipating tensions and settling dis abundant in the region. The south. which is flooding. which requires new hydraulic works. Niger. Senegal and Gambia rivers. are being putes. wetter. suffers from regular flooding and the Finally, the decline in public debt is providing disrupted by sea level rise. river regulation by aquifers are relatively productive. ln the North. leeway for new investments. While Western large dams and climate change, which are en which is far more arid. the Senegal. Niger. Volta countries are increasingly reluctant due to the dangering their fragile ecosystems. Bruno Barbier, Alioune Kane, and Chari rivers support high population densi cost and the social and enviro nmental impacts Dam building and hydraulic works have given Bega Ouedraogo, Jean-Yves Jamin, ties thanks to floodplain meadows. to flooded. of dams. China seems to be willing to finance rise to a number of cross-border conflicts that Jean Christophe Poussin flood recession and irrigated cropping. and to and carry out major engineering projects. fishing. These rivers are currently being regu have generally remained of low intensity. with lated by dams and should be able to respond The major hydro-agricultural installations have the exception ofthe one between Senegal and more effectively to rapidly growing demand. been criticised in the past because of their Mauritania (between 1989 and 1991) concer poor returns on investment. Progress has ning the irrigable land of the Senegal River. To Despite significant national differences. popu nevertheless been made in the Senegal River day. Ghana is taking Burkina Faso to task over lation growth in the 15 West African countries Valley and the Office du Niger (Mali). where its 1 500 small reservoirs. which are reducing is indeed high (at around 3% per year) and eco yields are increasing and rice cultivation is be the production of its major hydro-electricity nomic growth in these countries is sustained coming competitive with Asian rice imports. dams. Engineering projects are ringing alarm A r-E>N EMJ0-0 RI..IW. VvffiD AA [NFJNIY/ IF R..RAl. Cl-WŒ N .Am::A 88 A~ EMR:l(; flRAI. \A,ffi.D • • integration and trade integration. For this atlas. and from IIASA to project both areas and yields Spread15 we have chosen to represent two of these: the in 2050. bearing in mind that where yields are This map represents renewable water resources OTES free movement of people and trade integration. concerned. the effects of climate change are considered as those which. after use. should re This report specifïes three criteria for evaluating integrated using the IPCC Bl scenario. and that turn to their previous stock level through natu the free movement of people: the proportion we assume a medium intensity technologica l ral replenishment processes (rainfall). The vast of regional economic community (REC) mem package. Other assumptions are also adopted Cross-cutting note majority of renewable water cornes from sur ber countries whose nationals are issued with concerning land constraints and the extension This update of the atlas takes into account the face water. The map also represents what we a visa on arrivai; ratification (or not) of the REC of irrigation according to forest protection and creation ofSouth Sudan. but some datais sti/1 una call the "dependency ratio". which corresponds protocol on the free movement of persons: water availability. vailable. ln this case. values for Sudan have been to the percentage of renewable water resources and the proportion of REC member countries applied to South Sudan with the symbol Il (note originating outside the country. The countries whose nationals do not require a visa for entry. Spread11 applicable to spreads 2. 8 and 9). with high water availability are generally those in Four criteria are used to evaluate trade integra To estimate the share of minerai resources in downstream parts of large international rivers. tion: the level of customs duties on imports: total experts. data from the World Development and are therefore rel atively "dependent" on the share ofintra-regional goods imports (% of Specfflc notes lndicators (WDI) database were difficult to use, water from other countries. Islands have zero GDP); the share ofintra-regional goods experts and were therefore supplemented by data from dependence. since they are not connected to Spread2 (o/o of GDP); and the share of total intra-regional alternative sources for 2014 or 2015 (OECD. rivers on the continent. goods trade (o/o of total intra-REC trade). AFDB. African Economie Outlook. Embassies· The size of each square is proportional to the economic departments. etc.). Spread8 Spread22 cumulative annual cohorts of young people rea ching the 15-24 age group over the 2015-2030 The prospective study on incarne in 2050 is The maps produced by the author use datage Spread13 period. The size of an annual cohort corres based on projections of agricultural va lue ad nerated in Ghana by the statistics department ponds to 1/10 of the 15-24 age group calcula ded. GDP, agricultural labour force and total Monitoring large-scale land acquisitions could of the Ministry of Food and Agriculture (SRID/ ted for each year of the reference period. population. GDP data are taken from the MAGE be compared to using a radar in the fog. lndeed, MOFA) and the RS/GIS Laboratory: in Burkina model from the Centre de Recherche Français due to their lack of transparency. monitoring Faso by the MARSAHA statistics department SpreadS dans le Domaine de l'Economie Internationale land transactions (identification. quantification. and INSD-RPGH; and in a cross-Cutting manner (CEPII - French research centre in internatio dynamics) is problematic. The data presented data produced bythe World Conservation Moni ln the anamorphic representation adopted nal economics). the OECD ENV-Growth model in this spread are based on "Land Matrix". which toring Centre. the Openstreetmap. Africapolis for maps M 11 and M 12. also called area car and a medium scenario from the International defines large-scale land acquisitions as deals and Digital Chart of the World databases. and tograms. the traditional representation of the lnstitute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). that: data from field surveys conducted by the author different countries expressed in km2 has been known as the "middle-of-the-road" scenario to identify flows of products traded (thesis by replaced by the total value of GDP (M 11) and by entail a transfer of rights to use. contrai or (SSP2). Calculations of the agricultural labour G. Poujol. forthcoming). For the map on flows of the population (M12). while conserving geogra ownership of land through sale. lease or conces force in 2050 are the result of geometric extra maize. based on surveys of around 100 traders. phical contours that are consequently defor sion: polation of ILO data for the 1980-2020 period. the transport frequency indicator expresses med in proportion to the value of each indicator. Projections were based on the most recent rural caver an area of 200 hectares or more: the usage rate of each stretch of road for maize population and total population data (UN 2015 transportation. calculated across the whole Spread6 have been initiated since the year 2000: revision). For agricultural value-added. we used network used. This indicator gives a macrosco imply a change of land use; Figure n°7 represents an assessment of the calculations of the "net unit prices" of individual pic overview of the flow density and differen regional integration index according to two products applied to net production volumes are concluded for agricultural purposes. tiates the road network according to its usage specific dimensions. This data cornes from (which are assumed to move in line with gross Mining projects and tourism operations are the for maize transportation. the Africa Regional lntegration Index Report production). Two volume growth scenarios refore excluded from this analysis. 2016 (AU. AFDB. UN. 2016). which produces a were adopted: i) we apply yield growth rates for Spread23 regional integration index for Africa. This glo cereals. oilseeds. animal products. coffee. co Land Matrix may only reflect partial information. bal index is composed of 16 indicators grouped coa and rubber observed over the last 40 years but it is nevertheless a good basis that can be The data used in this spread were produced as according to fïve dimensions: regional infras in East Asia and Western Europe. and for other used to achieve a better understanding of the part of the "Groundwater" project financed by tructure. financial and macroeconomic inte products. we adopt growth rates estimated by scope of the phenomenon and to develop hy the Agence Nationale de la Recherche (French gration. free movement of people. productive FAO: ii) we use data from the FAO GAEZ project potheses and initial analyses. national research agency) (ANR CEP S 09/11) A r-1:>N EMJ0-0 RI..IW. VvffiD AA [NtfNf:VV IF R..RAl. Cl-WŒ N .Am::A and the SIRMA and SICMED networks. The authors took inspiration from one of their publi cations. the collective work: Kuper M. Faysse N. Hammani A. Hartani T. Marlet S. Hamamouche MF. Ameur F.. 2015. Liberation or Anarchy? The Janus Nature of Groundwater Use on North Africa's New Irrigation Frontiers. ln: Integrated Groundwater Management. A Jakeman. 0 Bar reteau. R Hunt. JD Rinaudo. A Ross (se EdJ Springer. Dordrecht. The Netherlands: 583- 615. ISBN 978-3-319-23576-9 Spread24 HSM/IRD. HydroSciences Montpellier is a joint research unit between IRD. the National Centre for Scientific Research and the University of Montpellier. Parts of their work. especially maps dra~vn by Claudine Dieulin, have formed the ba sis for the realization of the map of the spread 24 on Water in West Africa. FRA 2010, 2015: Global Forest Resources Assessment MOFA-SRID. Statistical Service ofthe MinistryofAgricu l territoriale sur les dynamiques démographiques et le déve 2010. 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German lnstitute of Global and Area Studies PVGIS - JRC, European project: geographic information Revision : Database of the Population Division of the change in Congo Basin: deforestation. reforestation. de (GIGA) and Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale system on solar resources and the use o f photovoltaic Department of Economie and Social Affa irs ofth e United gradation and regeneration for the years 1990. 2000 and Zusammenarbeit (GIZ). technology. Nations. The average figure for projections was used. 2005. Global Change Biology 19: 1173-1187. http://landmatrîx.org/en/ http://rejrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/ hllp://esa.un.org/unpd/wup ESA 2010. European Spatial Agency. Globcover Data WDI. World Development lndicators. World Bank Magrin G., 2013. Voyage en Afrique rentière. Une lecture SAED. 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Former name of the current Ministry at the Ramanitriniony et J.-P. Guengant. 2016. Les Régions ington: The World Bank. Agence Française de Dévelop Presidency in charge ofAgri culture and Livestock de Ségou etdu Vakinank.aratra face au défi démographique. pem ent. wwvJ.agriculture.gov.mg Rapport de synthèse de l'étude AFD-CIRAD Prospective A rf:>N EMJ0-0 RI..IW. VvffiD AA [NFJNIY/ IF R..RAl. Cl-WŒ N .Am::A Mouhamadou Lamine Diallo. Université Paris Alioune Kane. Université Cheikh Anta Diop Jean- Michel Sourisseau. Cirad. UMR ART-Dev. CONTRIBUTORS 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne. UMR Prodig. France. (UCAD). Senegal. France. Astou Diao Camara. Institut Sénégalais de Marcel Kuper. Cirad. UMR G-Eau. Institut Agro lbra Touré. Cirad. UMR Selmet. CILSS. Recherches Agricoles (ISRA). Pôle pas toralisme nomique et Vétérinaire (IAV) Hassan Il. Morocco. Burkina Faso. et zones sèches (PPZS). Senegal. Bruno Losch. Cirad. UMR ART- Dev. Centre for Labaly Touré. Université Gaston Berger de Amadou Diop. Université Cheikh Anta Diop the Study ofGovernance Innovation (Govlnn). Saint Louis. Senegal. Amandine Adamczewski. Cirad. UMR G- Eau. (UCAD). Groupe d'étude de recherche et d'appui University of Western Cape. South Africa Sidiki Traoré. Université des Sciences Pôle pastoralisme et zones sèches (PPZS). au développement (Gerad). UMR GRED. Senegal. Sociales et de Gestion de Bamako. Mali. Géraud Magrin. Université Paris 1 Panthéon Université Gaston Berger. Senegal. Djibril Diop. Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Sorbonne. UMR Prodig. France. Elodie Valette. Cirad. UMRTetis. International Fatah Ameur. lnstitutAgronomique et Vét érinaire Agricoles (ISRA). Senegal. Food Policy Research lnstitute (IFPRI). USA. (IAV) Hassan Il. UMR G- Eau. Morocco. lkageng Maluleke. University of Pre- Charles Doumenge. Cirad. UPR Forêts et toria. Land Matrix. Sout h Africa. Ward Anseeuw. Cirad. UMR ART-Dev. Cent re for Sociétés. Observatoire des forêts d:A.frique Sylvain Massue!. Institut de Recherche pour the Study of Governance Innovation (Govlnn). centrale (OFAC). Commission des Forêts le Développement (IR D). UMR G-Eau. France. University of Pretoria. South Africa. dt\frique Centrale (COMIFAC). France. Sara Mercandalli. Cirad. UMR ART-Dev. Véronique Ancey. Cirad. UMR ART-Dev. France. Benoit Faivre-Dupaigre. Fondation Farm. AFD. Centre for the Study of Governance Innovation France. Bruno Barbier. Cirad. UMR G-Eau. Université (Govlnn). University of Pretoria. South Africa. Cheikh Anta Diop (UCAD). Senegal. Meriem Farah Hamamouche. Institut François Moriconi-Ebrard. CNRS. Agronomique et Vétérinaire (IAV) Hassan Il. Lyna Bélanger. GFA Consulting Group. GIZ UMR Espace. France. (Coopération allemande), Cameroon. UMR G-Eau. Morocco. Saliou Niassy. University of Pretoria. Jean-François Bélières. Cirad. UMR ART-Dev. Stefano Farolfi. Cirad. UMR G-Eau. France. Land Matrix. South Africa. FOFIFA Centre National de la Recherche Appliquée Jean-Jacques Gabas. Cirad. UMR ART- Dev. au Développement Rural. Madagascar. Christopher C. Nshimbi. University of Pretoria. France. Centre for the Study of Governance Jérémy Bourgoin. Ci rad. UMR T et is. Pôle pasto Innovat ion (Govlnn). South Africa. ralisme et zones sèches (PPZS). Institut Sénéga Laurent Gazull. Cirad. UPR Forêts et Sociétés. France. lais Bega Ouedraogo. Institut lnternationa de Recherches Agricoles (ISRA). Senegal. Claire Halleux. Observatoire des forêts d:A.frique d'ingénierie de l'Eau et de l'Environnem ent (2iE). Burkina Faso. Perrine Burnod. Ci rad, UMR T etis. Observatoire centrale (OFAC). Commission des Forêts d:A.frique Centrale (COMIFAC). Democratic Republic du Foncier (Ministère de lt\m énagement du Denis Pesche. Cirad. UMR ART-Dev. France. Territoire et de la Décentralisation). Madagascar. of Congo. Gabriel Poujol. Ci rad. UMR T et is. France. Jean-Daniel Cesaro. INRA. UMR Métafort. Ali Hammani. Institut Agronomique et Centre de développement rural (RU DEC)/ Institut Vétérinaire (IAV) Hassan Il. Morocco. Jean-Christophe Poussin. Institut de de politique et stratégie pour l'agriculture et Recherche pour le Développement Tarik Hartani. Ecole Nationale Supérieur le développement rural (IPSARDl. Vietnam. (IRD). UMR G-Eau. Senegal. Agronomiqe (ENSA) d:A.lger. Algeria. Cathy Chatel. Universidade Estadual Pau lista Patrick Rasolofo. Institut International de «Julio de Mesquita Fllho». Brasil. Jacques lmbernon. Cirad. UMRTetis. France. Sciences Sociales. UMI-Résiliences. Madagascar. Christian Corniaux. Cirad. UMR Selmet. Pôle Jean-YvesJamin. Cirad. UMR G-Eau. France. Vincent Ribier. Cirad. UMR ART- Dev. France. pastoralisme et zones sèches (PPZS). Institut Quentin Jungers. Université Catholique de Lou Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles (ISRA). Paul Scholte. GI Z (German Cooperation). va in (Belgique). Observatoire des forêts d:A.frique Senegal. Ca meroon. centrale (OFAC). Commission des Forêts dt\frique Djiby Dia. Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Centrale (COMIFAC). Democratic Republic Mamy Soumaré. Université des Sciences Agricoles (ISRA). Senegal. of Congo. Sociales et de Gestion de Bamako. Mali. A r-E>N EMJ0-0 RI..IW. VvffiD AA [NtfNf:VV IF R..RAl. Cl-WŒ N .Am::A 74 • CIRAD is a French research centre that works in partnership with countries of the South ta generate and transfer new knowledge in order ta support agricultural development and ta contribute to the debate on the main global issues sur rounding agriculture. food and rural territories. CIRAD has a global network ofpartn ers andregional offices. from which it works in cooperation with more than 90 countries. A NEW EMERGING RURAL WORLD An Overview of Rural Change in Africa 2•d edition ... l - . This document was produced by the CIRAD with the financial support of NEPAD, AFD and CIRAD, ISBN: 978- 2-87614-719- 5 within the framework of the second edition of the Africa Rural Development Forum held cirad in Yaoundé (Cameroon) from 8th to 10th september 2016 AD AGF,NCF. FRANÇAISE THE AGRONOMIC RESEARCH TRANSFORMING' AFRICA ;; DEVELOPPEMENT FOR OEVELOPMEN T