International Journal of Geography and Regional Planning IJGRP Vol. 4(1), pp. 043-063, May, 2018. © www.premierpublishers.org. ISSN: 1108-3450x
Analysis
The Drying of Lake Urmia as a Case of the “Aralism” Concept in Totalitarian Systems
Nasser Karami
Department of Geography, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway E-mail: [email protected]
Similarities exist in countries with totalitarian regimes with respect to the environment and the widespread destruction of natural landscapes. Analyses of the drying of the Aral Sea in central Asia and Lake Urmia in Iran, and comparisons including the general environmental conditions of totalitarian systems, revealed similar behaviors toward the environment in the two contexts, as well as a unique pattern. The author proposes the term “Aralism,” since Aral Sea case demonstrates all dimensions of this perceived pattern. Most processes affecting the Aral Sea were similarly observable in the drying of Lake Urmia. Analysis of these dimensions was based on the pattern of “Aralism” and a comparison of 20 factors common to the drying process. The results revealed that political goals in totalitarian systems had affected the respective environments in different ways, but the most significant impact on the landscape was caused by an ideological project. The author concludes that much of the specific characteristic behavior of totalitarianism in the cultural landscape was observable in the natural landscape. In conclusion, the paper shows that “Aralism” is a form of development with negative impacts on nature, such as often occurs in totalitarian systems.
Key words: Aral Sea, “Aralism”, totalitarianism, Lake Urmia, water management
INTRODUCTION
Specific reports on the Aral Sea show that not only warnings were published in mass media and responded to geographers but also managers and other decision- by the local population. However, the Iranian government makers have been aware of the consequences of the never ceased to stop its plan to develop croplands, and it agricultural development for the drying process (Hummel, continued even where conditions were extreme in the lake 2017; Jin et al., 2017; Roll et al., 2006). The results of a basin. cost-benefit analysis commissioned by the government of the Soviet Union had a cost–benefit analysis done It is noteworthy that the drying of the Aral Sea and Lake revealed that the benefits of agricultural growth in areas Urmia is due to the environmental impact of the such as the Karakum Desert would outweigh the broad implementation of specific agricultural projects. In the Aral disadvantages such as the drying up of Aral Sea (Roll et Sea case, the development of vast cotton farms in the al., 2006). There were evidently some political and Karakum Desert and in the Lake Urmia basin has led to an economic necessities that meant that the Soviet increase in the area under crops and changed the government followed a plan without hesitation, the results traditional cultivation pattern. The projects have been of which would destroy a landscape over a widespread planned and monitored at the highest level of government. area. The same process is observable in Lake Urmia Some of the main dimensions in the two projects are: the basin. Evidently, environmental experts repeatedly warned imposition of non-flexible projects on vast landscapes; the of the destructive effects of changes to the hydrological prioritization of ideological goals, the disregard of the need system in the area (Hasanzadeh et al., 2012). The for biodiversity and environmental differences; the use of
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authoritative methods to implement the projects; and the • They do not value individuality and individuation. responsible institutions’ failure to monitor and control the • Everything is meaningful in cooperation with the projects. These matters have led to the need to frame of a ideology and the main goal. common model to redefine the fate of the Aral Sea and • They are based on a complete and comprehensive Lake Urmia. ideology, and maintenance of the belief in this ideology. • There is no privacy; the system interferes in all aspects If “imposing an ideological project on a landscape” is of life. recognized as the primary character of totalitarianism • Even for the most complicated issues, the (Woody, 1940), it can be claimed that disregard of the representatives of the systems have preconceived need for biodiversity in natural landscapes probably has solutions. They reduce the most complicated points and common roots in the disregard for individuality in social make simple suppositions about them. landscapes. This hypothesis can be used for many • They do not recognize civil society. examples of totalitarian systems, including Iran’s plan for • The main objective is to attract the majority of people. self-sufficiency in food supplies, North Korea’s plan to In the short term, the systems do not consider anything multiply the yields of rice fields, the Pol Pot regime’s plan other than attracting the masses. to convert all of Cambodia’ agricultural land to rice fields, • Despite public belief, totalitarianism belongs to the the Assad regime’s plan for Syria’s self-sufficiency in modern world and is a modern phenomenon. wheat production, the Southeastern Anatolia Project • The power structure is completely focused, and this can (GAP, Guneydogu Anadolu Projesi) in Turkey, and the lead to the domination of a bureaucratic system. Nahr-al-Sanai Project in Libya responsible institutions • On its way to gaining total power, a totalitarian system In the study reported in this paper, the initial research grants to the citizens a proportion of whatever it has question was: “Is there a relationship between confiscated from them. totalitarianism and environmental degradation?” Assuming • Propaganda is an essential and strategic pillar of the answer was positive, the second question was “Is the totalitarianism. News publications re filled with drying of the Aral Sea and Lake Urmia an example of the propaganda. effect of totalitarianism on the environment?” A positive answer led to the third research question: What are the Friedrich and Brzezinski (1956) state that the main seven common features in the drying of the Aral Sea and Lake traits of totalitarianism are (1) single-party dictatorship, (2) Urmia? cult of a leader, (3) ideology control, (4) terror and secret police, (5) control of the media and cultural activity, (6) propaganda, and (7) centralized control of economy as. It MAIN CONCEPTS is apparent that the core of totalitarianism is “An ideology that must dominate the landscape” (Spencer et al., 2005, Totalitarianism not necessarily a characteristic of p. Chapter 1). Single parties, terror, and propaganda are authoritarian and dictator governments, nor is it some of the methods whereby dominant ideologies are fundamentally related to the past or to a temporary political implemented and imposed. In regional management, situation (Spencer et al., 2005). Rather, totalitarianism is environmental aspects of totalitarianism can be found in essentially a modern phenomenon and has only been any project that makes hierarchical impositions on the possible in the modern era (Arendt, 1968). According to landscape. Figure 1 shows a simplified version of this Arnet (1968), Friedrich and Brzezinski (1956), and process, and Figure 2 shows the analogical impacts of Spencer et al. (2005), there is a consensus on the totalitarianism in society and nature. From the two Figures, following aspects of totalitarian systems: it is apparent that most of the sociological impacts of totalitarianism have an analogous impact on the environment.
Figure 1: A simplified overview of the process whereby environmental aspects of totalitarianism are imposed on landscapes
The Drying of Lake Urmia as a Case of the “Aralism” Concept in Totalitarian Systems Int. J. Geogr. Reg. Plan. 045
Totalitarianism in Totalitarianism in cultural landscape natural landscape
Negation of individuality Negation of biodiversity
Impose massive unsustainable Quantity pivotal Projects on nature
Depreciation natural resources Simplification to economic Goods
Populism Rural-oriented
Needing people to get Freely abuses natural government rations resources
Failing EIA (Environmental Deactivation of civil society Impacts Assesment)
Growth at the expense of Externality nature
No Privacy No real protected safe zones
Figure 2: The main impacts of ideological totalitarian master plans on cultural landscapes and natural landscapes
The common characteristics of both totalitarian systems’ 2005). and totalitarians’ relationships with the environment and • Totalitarian systems have the power to accelerate regional planning can briefly be described as follows: natural processes, such as desertification and periodic flooding. • Totalitarian systems have an economic view of nature • Public policy Ii non-democratic countries such as China as opposed to an ecological view. They regard natural is increasingly associated with a form of “environmental resources as economic goods, not ecological authoritarianism,” or a "public policy model that components (Arnet, 1987). concentrates authority in a few executive agencies • What totalitarians call a regional plan mainly comprises manned by capable and uncorrupt elites seeking to a group of goals, not a single goal. According to Woody improve environmental outcomes” (Beeson, 2010). (1940), the meddling nature of totalitarians cannot • There is a long-standing strand of environmentally tolerate the difficult details of an exact regional oriented political theory that argues that authoritarian program. regimes may have particular advantages over their • Totalitarians couch everything as “a project” (Spencer democratic counterparts, especially when ecological et al., 2005). pressures become increasingly severe (Beeson, 2016). • Both the executive section and authorized supervisor • Totalitarian systems are bureaucratic systems that slow constitute the government. The private sector has no the reaction times in a totalitarian government. Often, power, and therefore has no control (Spencer et al., they act too late (Dalrymple, 2009).
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Table 1: Sustainability assessment of food and agriculture systems in the Aral Sea and Lake Urmia basins, based on the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s sustainable agriculture indicators (FAO, 2013) Sustainable Measurement method Overall estimation Overall estimation of agriculture indicators of the Aral Sea basin Lake Urmia basin Corporate ethics Percentage of compliance, enterprise over time Weak Weak Accountability Valuation of holistic audits and responsibility Very weak Weak Participation Stakeholders’ dialogues, grievance procedures, and conflict Very weak Weak resolution Rule of law Legitimacy, civic responsibility, and resource appropriation Very weak Very weak Holistic management Assessment sustainability management plan and full-cost Weak Weak accounting Atmosphere Greenhouse gas emissions indexes Weak Weak Air quality Water The balance between water consumption and renewable Very weak Very weak waters Land Quality and fertility of the soils, assessment of land Very weak Very weak degradation Biodiversity Checking of plans for protection of biodiversity Weak Very weak Materials and energy Measurement of the change in the quantities of materials and Weak Weak energy Animal welfare Professional monitoring of animal health Very weak Very weak Investment Review of the enterprises’ business records Very weak Medium Vulnerability Measurement of stability in production and supply Very weak Very weak Product quality and Measurement of food safety and food quality Weak Weak information Local economy Estimation of value creation and local procurement Medium Medium Decent livelihood Valuation of the quality of life and capacity development Weak Medium Fair trading practices Estimation of the responsible buyers and rights of suppliers Very weak Very weak Labor rights Monitoring forced labor, including child labor Good Good Equity Valuation of non-discrimination, gender equality, and support Good Medium to vulnerable people Human health and Measurement of public health Very weak Weak safety Cultural diversity Evaluation of indigenous knowledge and food sovereignty No observations No observations
Totalitarians do not have much interaction with free distinct indicator could be measured in two perspectives, enterprise and the global trading system (Dalrymple, such as one in the totalitarian system, and another in the 2009). This leads them to a kind of endogenous non-totalitarian system. However, given the various development based on natural resources, which is a “causal-comparative” methods for verifying the conclusion, problem in that often the quantitative goals are too it is necessary to make assumptions about the following: a ambitious and not suitable for the capacity of resources direct relationship between the change and the and the ecological power of the land. Additionally, independent variable (in this case, the totalitarian policy), totalitarians’ political and ideological goals take priority possibility to prove the priority of the time of the over environmental criteria, thus leading to the inevitable independent variable and the dependent variable (in this destruction of the environment. case, the totalitarian policy), and sufficient reasons to rule out other assumptions (Pacione, 1999). In casual- comparative methods, variables must also be controlled by METHODS methods such as alignment (Rogerson, 2015). For alignment, the most important rule is that all components To define specifically which class of environmental associated with the dependent variable should be changes stems from the application of totalitarian policies, identified and their effects should be carefully it is necessary to have a precise idea of normal differentiated (Rogerson, 2015). Often, the most reliable environmental policy and then to compare it with method is to consider a quantitative basis for each of the totalitarianism. The basis of this study is the United Nations FAO’s 21 indicators of sustainable agriculture (FAO, 2013) Food and Agriculture Organization’s 21 sustainable and then measure observations of sustainable agricultural agriculture indicators that form part of the framework indicators in the geographic landscape, especially in the known as SAFA (Sustainability Assessment of Food and field of governance and the environment. Agriculture systems) (FAO, 2013). The indicators are listed in Table 1. It is apparent that to achieve an accurate A quantitative basis, such as described above, is not evaluation of sustainability, we need to use quantitative available for most of the sustainable agriculture indicators. methods, such as causal-comparative models for each of Rather, the SAFA framework mainly focuses on qualitative the indicators of sustainable agriculture. In this way, a measurements (FAO, 2013). An alternative way to
The Drying of Lake Urmia as a Case of the “Aralism” Concept in Totalitarian Systems Int. J. Geogr. Reg. Plan. 047
evaluation of sustainability would be to align and compare required much more water than the farmed areas had each of the indicators in landscapes with similar previously, mainly because the farms were more remote geographic conditions, but different types of political and a great deal of water was wasted en route to the farms. management: totalitarian and non-totalitarian systems. Therefore, the rivers Amu Darya and the Syr Darya were However, the established practice for a study such as mine siphoned by new canals with a huge capacity and is to measure with precision the impact of each of the networks to the remote parts of the desert. Prior to the start ecological, political, economic, and social factors. Clearly, of the project, about half of the volume of water diverted to achieve a precise assessment in this way, it would be from the two rivers was used for agriculture, but after the better to focus on comparisons involving just one factor. development of the canals the amount of water fed into the However, in the process of rethinking a theoretical Aral Sea from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya became less framework for the study of the effect of totalitarianism on and less. the environment, I planned to compare the environmental impact of imposing policies of “totalitarian rule” on two With the reduction in the volume of water entering the Aral lakes: Lake Urmia and the Aral Sea. Accordingly, a Sea, especially from the early 1980s, the lake gradually questionnaire was completed by 20 experts who were became smaller until, in 1987, it divided into two lakes: familiar with the general conditions of the two lakes. The Northern Aral Sea and the Southern Aral Sea. However, experts were asked to score each of the 21 indicators of the disastrous impact became apparent in the early 21st sustainable agriculture in each case, using the following century. In 2005, 75% of the Aral Sea dried out and the categories: very weak, weak, moderate, good, and amount of salt in the remaining water increased fivefold. excellent. The experts were selected from participants in a Two years later, in 2007, the Aral Sea became subdivided workshop on Lake Urmia reclamation methods and all into four smaller lakes: the Northern Aral Sea, two lakes previous studies of the drying process of lake Urmia and respectively in the east and west of the former Southern the Aral Sea, and their current conditions, held by the of Aral Sea, and a small lake between the northern and the Iranian Environmental Academy in 2017 (IRENMEDIA, southern lakes. The total area of the four lakes was less 2017). The results are shown in Figure 15 More than 80% than 10% of the original Aral Sea’s area. In 2008, the of the experts were of the opinion that the degree of greatest depth of the Aral Sea was 42 m, and in 2009 accordance with the sustainability goals in the Aral Sea satellite pictures showed that the eastern and southern and Lake Urmia was either “weak” or “very weak.” lakes had dried up completely and the western lake had become much smaller (Micklin, 2000). The drying of the Aral Sea and the wider area around it has transformed the STUDY AREA landscape completely and has become one of the worst human-made environmental disasters on record (Jin et al., Brief Description of the Drying of the Aral Sea 2017). At present, an area of 400,000 km2, with a population of about 5 million people, has been affected by The Aral Sea formerly covered an area of 68,000 km2 and the ecological destruction due to the unceasing salt dust was located between Kazakhstan (to the north) and winds and the desertification. Diseases have spread, Uzbekistan (to the south) and was once the fourth largest which were unknown before. The cases of cancer, inland lake in the world (Jin et al., 2017). In order to hepatitis, and typhoid fever have increased more than the understand the magnitude of the Aral Sea, it is useful to average rates in other republics of the Soviet Union. For note that its watershed, spanning 1,549,000 km2, extended example, in Kizil Order in Kazakhstan, one of the areas across and/or into six countries, some of them vast and adjacent to the Aral Sea, the average life expectancy has remote: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, decreased from 64 years to 51 years (Roll et al., 2006). Tajikistan, Afghanistan, and Iran (Xu, 2017). Additionally, climatic conditions have changed. Summers The long history of the Aral Sea changed in the mid-20th have become hotter and drier, and the winters have century, when the government of the Soviet Union decided become colder and longer. Today, the people and the to develop agriculture in the Central Asian republics by environment in the Aral Sea basin are abandoned and implementing large projects (Roll et al., 2006). The defenseless. The impact of the Aral Sea disaster has been government had two goals: to provide better resources for so great that it has been referred to as the “quiet thousands of people and simultaneous to reduce the Chernobyl” (Micklin, 2006). Soviet Union’s dependency on imported cotton (Micklin, When studying the case of the drying up of the Aral Sea, 2006). It achieved these goals, and today Uzbekistan is the following points should be considered: the number one exporter of cotton in the world (Aladin et al., 2008). The agricultural land increased by 60%, from 1. The destruction of the Aral Sea was could have been 4.5 million ha in 1960 to 7.2 ha in 1990. However, changing predicted by the heads of the Russian government. the Ghare Ghom Desert into vast areas farmland for They knew that the siphoning of the Amu Darya and the cotton, rice, vegetable, and grain was dependent on Syr Darya would destroy the Aral Sea (Aladin et al., extensive irrigation. The additional 60% of farmland 2008).
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2. Following the Politburo’s propaganda, some experts in were not considered in the basic calculations of the the former Soviet Union, believed that the destruction project. The main negative effect was that the of the Aral Sea was inevitable and called it an “error of agricultural development would be based in an area nature” (Micklin, 2000). Was it a scientific mistake or that was not entirely suitable for agricultural was it a misuse of the scientific position to justify the development (Jin et al., 2017). government’s mistake? The latter should be assumed, since, as a rule, geographers do not consider lakes or After a period, the usage of fertilizers in the area of the Aral any other natural phenomena an “error of nature.” Sea was ten times more than the average per capita in the 3. The goals of developing tens of thousands of job Soviet Union, and pesticide usage increased by 50 times opportunities, changing a desert into farmland, and per capita in Russia (Micklin, 2006). Moreover, despite the making Uzbekistan (a country with poor people and costly irrigation, occasionally the soils became salty and limited advantages for developing industry and therefore more water was introduced to counteract the services) the world’s biggest exporter of cotton were problem. As the consumption of water increased, the Aral appealing to the extent that they were thought to justify Sea became correspondingly drier, yet all the while more the project of siphoning water from the Amu Darya and salt and fertilizers were finding their way into the lake. Syr Darya. A lot of local people and even international media were excited by the potential and supported the Lake Urmia project prior to the environmental disasters. 4. The idea that “Fresh water flowing to a faraway desert Lake Urmia and its catchment basin, which has an area of or a swamp or a salty lake is wasted water if it has approximately 52,000 km2, is located in the mountainous gotten out of the reach of the human” was presented by region of north-western Iran, in the provinces of West the executives of the project and accepted by the Azerbaijan, East Azerbaijan, and part of the autonomous majority of people (Roll et al., 2006). region of Kurdistan (Figure 3). Lake Urmia itself covers an 5. Prior to the 1980s, media and international groups were area of about 5000 000 km2 and belongs to both West not against the project to siphon the Amu Darya and the Azerbaijan and East Azerbaijan. Syr Darya. One reason for this was the limited information given in the former Soviet Union, which The specific geology of this area, the high amount of water prevented access to news about and documentation of vapor, and the constant solute aggregation in it result in local affairs of the country. A second reason concerns highly salty soils. The lake is surrounded by some fresh how gradually the effects of these environmental water wetlands, which are of ecological importance. disasters were experienced. While execution of the agricultural development project had started in Central Sudden Dry Up Asia in the mid-20th century, its most important effects on the Aral Sea region were not apparent until the The surface of Lake Urmia has always fluctuated greatly. 2000s. Although the recent dry up seems unprecedented, the lake 6. “Human-made” environmental disasters are often has faced severe incidences of dry up in the past. It is coupled with a phenomenon called “externality,” known that conditions in the lake have varied in the have meaning that the real cost is not necessarily paid by varied since the late 1930s, during which time it was those who benefited from the execution of the project. possible to record the water level fluctuations: before the In some cases, the public, the local populace, or 1990s, the water level was, on average, 1274 m a.s.l., the organizations pay the price, but mostly the costs are volume of the water was 11,280 m3 in 1996 when the experienced in the environment. maximum height of 1280 m a.s.l. was recorded, and the 7. Apparently, the agricultural growth project in Central minimum height recorded was 1272 m a.s.l. in 2014. Asia was merely a set of goals rather than a (Ghale et al., 2018). Figure 4 shows the differences in the comprehensive program, and related factors such as water level in a period of about 65 years. As the present environmental analyses of the project were not water level of Lake Urmia is exceptionally low, and since examined (Hummel, 2017). an increase in the water level in the 1990s was recorded 8. The three groups involved in the region—the project without sample in at least the last 100 years, it can be executives, the project observers, and the assumed that the normal level is 1274 m a.s.l. (Figure 5). environmental managers—were all government This figure is almost the same as the average level of the employees (Aladin et al., 1996). The order to execute lake water recorded in the period from the 1930s to the the project was given by Khrushchev, as leader of the 1990s. This average was the basis of the analyses that led former Soviet Union, but middle-level managers were to the announcement of Lake Urmia as a national park and supposed to be subject to supervision on environmental a Ramsar site (Bahram Soltani 2010). On this basis, Lake and technical matters. Clearly, the supervisors were Urmia current level of 1272 m is 4 m lower than the ineffective. Somehow, they were part of the execution minimum level and 2 m lower than the lowest level for it to team. (Micklin, 2000). sustain the local ecology. This situation will eventually lead 9. Apparently, the negative effects of project execution to the loss of the lake entirely.
The Drying of Lake Urmia as a Case of the “Aralism” Concept in Totalitarian Systems Int. J. Geogr. Reg. Plan. 049
Figure 3: The location of Lake Urmia between the provinces of East Azerbaijan and West Azerbaijan in Iran
Figure 4: Water level changes in Lake Urmia, 1960–2016 Source: Urmia Lake restoration program [Tajrishi] 2015
Figure 5: Schematic overview of water level changes in Lake Urmia Source: Urmia Lake restoration program [Tajrishi] 2015
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The decrease in the water level in Lake Urmia has left a revival will begin and that it will return to its previous salt bed exposed to wind and sunshine, and this can lead state and . . . we believe that within five years, the Lake to a “salt tsunami” in northwestern Iran (Ghale et al., 2018). Urmia problem will be solved” (Mohamadizadeh, 2011). On average, the water in the lake basin has decreased by 3. An approach toward more hydrological manipulation to up to one-third. One-third of the area around the lake has compensate for the previous manipulations. In the become partly marshy and another one-third, totaling comprehensive management program, the decisions almost 2000 km2, has become salt marsh. The marshy made, and plans approved about the lake, as well as in lands near the lake are rapidly drying out and changing the positioning of relevant officials, there have seldom into salt marsh. The salt density in the lake itself has been signs of the restoration of the hydrological reached a supersaturated level with currently more than conditions of the lake to their previous state (Tajrishi, 34% salinity, and if the process continues, Lake Urmia will 2016). The officials have mainly tried to supervise eventually become the saltiest lake in the world engineering involving more manipulation of the (Nazaridoust, 2006). hydrological system in order to control the rate of dry up—in the official reports, the term “drought” is used The difference between the general effects of the drying of instead of dry up”). Some such projects, include Lake Urmia and the Aral Sea relates to the population transferring water from the Caspian Sea basin and the density around these lakes. The Aral Sea is at the center rivers Aras and Zab, increasing water-usage efficiency of one of the largest deserts in the world, and the in agriculture, miniaturization of the lake, and “cloud population density is low. By contrast, 6 million people live fertilization.” The removal of the dams and causeways in the catchment basin of Lake Urmia. Furthermore, the is considered taboo and has never been mentioned in amount of salt in the Aral Sea is much less than in Lake the official reports. With regard to agricultural goals, Urmia, and therefore concerns about Lake Urmia dry-up rather than reducing the amount of cultivation or directly are greater than in the case of the Aral Sea (Eimanifar and stating the need for a change in the cultivation model, Mohebbi, 2007). According to Vahid Chegini, Director of the preferred focus has been on increasing the the National Iranian Institute of Oceanology, “If Urmia Lake efficiency of water usage (Ghale et al., 2018). dries out, many of the provinces of Iran will be affected by its destructive effects whose certain result will be an environmental disaster in different aspects and large part DISCUSION ON MAIN FACTORS OF THE DRY-UP OF of the country” (Chegini, 2013). LAKE URMIA
Reaction of the Government Doubts about Climate Change
The main official documents that can be considered as Official reports long claimed that climate change was the Iran’s government plans for saving Lake Urmia are a main reason for the drying of Lake Urmia (Morid 2012). A master plan titled “Drought risk management plan for limited trend of reduction in annual precipitation in the Urmia Lake basin” (Moghaddasi et al. 2017) first region has been demonstrated. For example, Shadkam et implemented in 2012 and reports on the Lake Urmia al. (2016) state: “annual inflow to Urmia Lake has dropped Restoration Program, which started in 2014. The contents by 48% over the study period (1960–2010). About three- of these documents have been mainly considered in three fifths of this change was caused by climate change, and ways: about two-fifths were caused by water resource development.”
1. According to the above-mentioned master plan, briefly To study the effect of climate change on drying of Lake climate factors are assumed to account for 75% of the Urmia it is important to analyze the lake conditions over drying and the human factor for 25%. Based on the the last few thousand years. One of the most accurate official reports by the Iranian government, the minimal methods in this regard is through paleoclimatology. human factors affecting the drying of Lake Urmia can According to the authors of one study conducted in the even be overlooked. area, “getting to the core and analyzing the sediments 2. Reduction in crisis and absolute optimism to control it. under the lake bed shows that although on the lakeshore Despite the continuous warnings of independent the signs of drying are seen to fluctuate, the main part of media, environmentalists, and experts in this issue, the lake, at least in the last 13,000 years was the lake Iranian officials have denied most of the critical effects watershed basin, and continuous sedimentation is seen” of the drying of Lake Urmia (Hasanzadeh et al. 2012). (Lak et al., 2012; My translation). This is confirmed by Sometimes they have considered that the problem that earlier data relating to earthquakes (Ahmadi et al., 2011). can be resolved with few costs over a short period. This, while climate change and certainly an increase in Former Vice-President and former head of the evaporation in recent years is one of the factors that has Environmental Protection Organization, Mohammad- been effective in the decrease in the water level in the lake, Javad Mohamadizadeh rejected the possibility of a “salt it is not the main reason why the lake has dried up tsunami” around the lake and stated “We hope that, (Ahadnejad Reveshty and Maruyama, 2010). Since starting next year, the process of the Lake Urmia’s
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13,000 years ago, Iran has faced widespread droughts, which is thus subtracted from the water entering the lake and shallow lakes such as the Maharloo, Mirabad, and (Bahram Soltani, 2010). The annual amount of water Zarivar have dried out many times (Lak et al., 2012). By needed to help to revive the lake and restore its ecological contrast, with the exception of the lakeshore, Lake Urmia balance is about 3 billion m3 (which is less than the 3.6 has never dried out completely (Djamali et al., 2008). The billion m3 consumed by the increased agricultural lands main phase of the drying of the lake started about 13,000 since 1980. (Tajrishi 2016). Since 1979, between years ago, and can be attributed to the great drought in the approximately 360,000 ha (official statistics) and 600,000 last ice age. which led to a decrease in humidity and a ha, unofficial statistics, have been added to agricultural reduction in the water balance in lakes in Northern Africa lands. Based on the job index, for every 1.5 ha of and Southern Asia (Kelts and Shahrabi, 1986). Hence, the agricultural land in the Lake Urmia basin (Daemi, 2013) it main reason for the present decrease in water balance in can be calculated that the development of agricultural land Lake Urmia is anthropological. has created 240,000–400,000 job opportunities in the area (360,000 divided by 1.5, and 600,000 divided by 1.5 Analyses of official government have shown that the main respectively). Calculations of the economic value of each factor contributing to the drying of Lake Urmia has been job opportunity have varied. One of the most recent official reported as a decrease in rainfall between 2000 and 2008 calculations is in published report by the Minister of compared with the amount of maximum rainfall in the Cooperatives, Labour and Social Welfare, in which the 1990s. (Moghaddasi 2017). First, it should be noted that capital needed to qualify as a job opportunity is 400 million the increase in rainfall in the 1990s was in an tomans, about 80,000 USD (Rabiei, 2014). It can thus be unprecedented wet period, at least in the last century. concluded that with regard to job development alone, the Second, the drought between 2000 and 2008 was typical development of agricultural lands in the Lake Urmia of the fluctuations in the climate that have occurred in the watershed basin has generated between 96,000 billion Lake Urmia basin in recent centuries but that have never tomans (400,000,000 x 240,000) and 160,000 billion led to the lake drying up completely. Furthermore, since tomans (400,000,000 x 400,000) in income and economic 2008, the amount of rainfall in the basin has increased, but profit. This is a very high profit, and the interest earned not so far from normal amount. Interestingly, much of the from it has gone directly to the most important social group drying as well as the decrease in the water level in the lake that supports the government—the farmers and villagers. has occurred in this period, in which the rainfall has never The development in the number of job opportunities arising been less than at the normal level (Hassanzadeh et al., from a sensitive political and geopolitical issue, especially 2012). for a country in which unemployment is considered its most important economic crisis, is crucial and strategic. In such Increase in the Cultivation Area situations, it is hard to think about the government’s consideration of releasing half of the amount of water Figures 6, 7, and 8 show the increased areas of cultivated behind the dams, as a way to protect the Lake, which lands in the Lake Urmia basin between 1976 and 2006. would cover half of the present cultivated lands. in 2011, The satellite images show that during this 30-year period Mohammad-Javad Mohamadizadeh (former deputy of the agricultural land in the basin increased more than Iran’s environment deputy) stated “We cannot and do not fourfold. In 1976, the agricultural land in the basin totaled want to prevent the people from continuing to cultivate 160,000 ha. A study shows that Lake Urmia basin has around the lake since about two million tons of fruit was about 450,000 hectares of irrigated lands, 170,000 produced in the Urmia Lake watershed basin 30 years ago, hectares of rain-fed lands, and at least 100,000 hectares but now the amount is eight million tons”. Sattar of fallow land” (Tajrishi 2015). Mahmoudi, the Deputy Minister of Energy has emphasized that agricultural development has continued despite the However, on January 8, 2011, in a meeting with provincial drought: “At present, despite the severe drought which has representatives, the Minister of Energy pointed out that the continued for 14 years in the lake region, agricultural area of agricultural lands area at the time of the Islamic development has not stopped” (Daemi, 2013). In this Revolution was 150,000 ha, not 320,000 ha. The regard, it should be noted that Mohammad Darvish, former managers of the protection of the ponds in the country plan Public participation director of Iran's environment have since issued a formal statement announcing that the department in an interview (DW PERSIAN, May 27, 2011) current agricultural area is 710, 000 ha, but some informal claims that during since 1995, agricultural development reports have estimated the area of agricultural lands in has continued in the West Azarbaijan province, with an West Azarbaijan Province as about 800,000 (Tajrishi, average increase of 5% annually, despite knowledge of 2016). the critical conditions of the lake and the water crisis.
Significantly, even taking into consideration the minimum The Causeway Effect on the Dry Up increase in agricultural land, which is 112%, an important conclusion can be reached: if 10,000 m3 of water is needed The Shahid Kalantari causeway is part of the Shahid for 1 ha, 3.6 billion m3 would be needed for 360,000 ha, Kalantari highway that connects the two cities of Tabriz
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and Urmia and has shortened the 260 km distance in size to the total area in which grapes were grown in between the two cities by half. One part of this causeway 1973. However, considering the average water consists of a levee in the shallow bed on the two sides of consumption index, it should be noted that, with regard to Lake Urmia’s shore, and one part is a bridge that is 1709 water usage in the area, the agricultural area has not been m in length, which is the longest bridge in Iran. It seemed increased 200% or 400% but rather 1200%. Non- that this project lacked an environmental analysis economic motives forced a change in the cultivation (Dehzad, 2011). The main problem has been that the pattern. Interestingly, the grapes were not only a desirable terrestrial overpass on each side of the bridge has divided crop but were internationally well known and considered a the lake into two halves, interrupting the lake’s typical desirable variety. They were replaced with a type of fruit water circulation (Zeinoddini et al., 2009). This has that is ecologically more difficult to produce with the limited resulted in semi-wetland conditions and this, together with resources of water in the region. Additionally, the type of the increase in temperature, has increased the rate of apple grown—known as the Urmia Apple in Iran—is evaporation. Thus, the building of the causeway has considered cheap and low quality. contributed to the dry-up of Lake Urmia. According to Dehzad (2011), the causeway has increased the amount Destruction of Traditional Water Management of water lost from the lake through evaporation by 20%. Systems Given that the average rate of evaporation of the lake is 3 billion m3 annually (Jalili, 2012), it is likely that 600 million Historical documents show that agriculture in the Lake m3 of water from the lake is wasted each year due to the Urmia watershed basin has been practiced for several causeway, and its removal or modification may save one- thousand years. However, it is important to note that there fifth of the water that is needed. However, its removal could has always been a logical balance in farming, whereby the lead to local conflicts, and any modification would be costly cultivation pattern and methods of harvesting, as well as and difficult. the water distribution in the area, has been compatible with the climate conditions. A significant index of this balance Inappropriate Cultivation Pattern is the role aqueducts have played in the region. Water distribution by these means is an intelligent operation and Among the factors in the dry-up of Lake Urmia that have proportionate to the amount of annual rainfall. rarely been mentioned is the change in the cultivation Groundwater is sourced for human use without disrupting pattern. The produce cultivated in the farmlands in the the natural hydrological system, in contrast to dams, which West and East Azarbaijan provinces has been changed disrupt the system. Similarly, water supplies are not from grapes to apples. The Urmia basin has been known wasted in underground aqueducts, unlike water drawn for the production of grapes and wine for centuries (Miller, from deep wells. Nevertheless, since 1970s aqueducts 2008). Interestingly, evidence shows that the Urmia region gradually replaced with dams and deep wells. The was the first place in the world where wine was produced aqueducts were gradually destroyed, which left room for and consumed (New York Times, 1996). The Shiraz the modern, destructive method. In the book titled A variety of grapes, which is used to make Shiraz wine, is Glance at Shabestar History and Geography, Tasuj and cultivated as a local species, especially in the West Sufian, the author mentions there were 585 deep wells in Azerbaijan watershed basin, and is exported to Europe city of Shabestar (Tamadon, 1973). In 1971, there were (Miller, 2008). 530 aqueducts in Shabesta (Tamadon, 1973), but in 2001 the head of the agricultural center in Shabestar, Bahram However, the shift to apple cultivation occurred after the Soltani announced that just 120 aqueducts were in use Islamic Revolution in 1979, when under Islamic rule the since 415 had dried out (Bahram Soltani, 2011). production, usage, and sale of wine became unlawful. This The role of any factors in drying lakes can be categorized, was a serious mistake, since apples need more than as shown in Figure 14, which shows the main reasons for twelve times the cultivation area than grapes. Figures 9– the drying of Lake Urmia. Degradation of hydrological 13 show the changes in the cultivation pattern in the area systems, the construction of dams without prior technical after the Islamic Revolution. In 1973, about 50% of the evaluations, increases in agricultural lands without farmlands were producing grapes, while the apple parameters for their use, and new cultivation patterns that orchards accounted for less than 6% (Statistical Centre of are inefficient at best have all been discussed as Iran, 1973). In 1982, three years after the Islamic “unsustainable agriculture.” In this paper, I have presented Revolution, grape cultivation decreased and occupied less calculations of the contribution of each of these factors in than 10% of the farmland area (Statistical Centre of Iran, the case of Lake Urmia. 1982). Thereafter, the area used for grapes increased on a limited scale, but despite the fact that agricultural lands have increased 400% in the region, the area used for DISCUSSION grape production is less than half of that of 1973. Based on the results listed in Table 1, as well as what was The total area covered by apple orchards is almost equal said about the main reasons for the drying of the Aral Sea
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and Lake Urmia, the points mentioned in Table 2 could be anticipate that they can reclaim half of the previous summarized as follows: both lakes have been adversely watershed basin at most, which will be difficult and costly. affected by unstable agricultural development, and both the government’s desire for this development ignored the environmental consequences. In both cases, the lake’s CONCLUSIONS value and the costs of its environmental transformation have been removed from the development program’s In this paper, the combination of common totalitarian cost–benefit analyses, particularly the impacts on the components in the Aral Sea and Urmia Lake is named water and soils in the respective regions. The compulsory “Aralism”. “Aralism” is a form of temporary growth, the real calculations have caused “externality” for both lakes. cost of which is borne by the environment and has irreparable consequences that can be seen typically in The rapid growth in agricultural lands has been in line with totalitarian systems. A totalitarian system relies on the official totalitarian propaganda, but the negative cost of extensive exploitation of natural resources without any this growth has not been paid by the investments but in criteria that might hold it back from achieving economic terms of the environment and posterity. Populism and growth. This paper has shown that such a need leads to attracting the local masses, as well as international an inevitable process of destruction that meets the propaganda and ideological operations in the “Aralistic” totalitarian objectives in the short term but commonly ends processes of both the Aral Sea and Lake Urmia can be in irrevocable destruction in the long term. It is worth noting seen. In both cases, the environmental consequences that the commonality between Lake Urmia and the Aral have been called inevitable natural processes by the Sea springs from the similar conditions that totalitarian governments. In the case of the Aral Sea, the process has systems imposed upon them. Even in non-totalitarian been described as due to natural error, and in the case of systems, some lakes have dried up, and in totalitarian Lake Urmia, it has been attributed to climate change. In systems some lakes have not dried up, but it should be Aral and Urmia, there has been an absence of noted a comprehensive study shows that experiences geographers and ecologists, and the entire processes such as Aral and Urmia drying up are predominantly appear to have been planned and executed by civil possible in totalitarian systems. engineers. Strong ideological motivation is seen in the “Aralistic” approach. In the case of the Aral Sea, the Soviet Union, with its the communist regime, became the biggest REFERENCES producer of cotton in the world, touting the government’s ability to change deserts into endless green farms. In the Ahadnejad Reveshty M, Maruyama Y (2010). 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Arendt H (1968). The Origins of Totalitarianism. 3rd. ed. influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation New YorK: Harcourt, Brace & World. weather types on variations in the water level of Lake Bagherzadeh Karami M (2013). Ecosystem approach as Urmia, Iran. Int J Climatol 32(13): 1990–1996. the main strategy for Urmia lake rescue. 1st Jin Q, Wei J, Yang ZL, Lin P (2017). Irrigation-induced International Conference for Urmia Lake Rescue, 22 environmental changes around the Aral Sea: An November 2013, Berlin, Germany. integrated view from multiple satellite observations. http://www.polsoz.fu- Remote Sens 9(9): 900. doi: 10.3390/rs9090900. berlin.de/v/bccare/files/events/urmia_2013/Karimi- Kamali Meysam and Soheila Youneszadeh Jalili (2015). Urmia-Berlin-2013.pdf. Accessed April 14, 2018 Investigation of Landuse changes in Urmia Lake basin Bahram Soltani K (2010). Best plan to save Urmia lake. using remotely sensed images. 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APPENDIX
TABLES
Table 2: Comparison of influential factors in the changing landscapes in the Aral Sea and Lake Urmia basins No Factors Aral Sea basin Lake Urmia basin 1 Inappropriate crop pattern Cotton Apple and sugar beet 2 Political-Economic Project No ecological or economic view in No ecological or economic view in the the planning of the project planning of the project 3 Populism Gaining the support of non-Russian Creating about 300,000 jobs in a peoples in Central Asia politically sensitive area 4 Externality The lake pays the cost of economic A fourfold growth in agriculture at the growth in remote deserts expense of destroying the lake 5 Reference to natural factors Referring the matter to drought Climate change 6 Positive feedback Microclimatic changes Microclimatic changes 7 Unexpected changes in natural The first reaction, after dry out of Initial reactions, after dry-up of two- alteration half of the lake thirds of the lake 8 Destruction of hydrologic Changing direction of the Amu Construction of Forty Dam without system Darya and Sir Darya environmental assessments 9 Unstable irrigation system Inappropriate watering according to Irrigation with only 30% efficiency circumstances 10 Mismanagement of water Inappropriate cultivation, improper Inappropriate cultivation, improper resources irrigation, increased evaporation irrigation, increased evaporation 11 The absence of ecologists and Designing and management of Environmental and academic geographers project by state engineers institutions have passive role 12 The negative role of Forty-year silence of international Collaboration with the UNDP on international organizations organizations rectifying lake mismanagement 13 Blueprint Project Project delivered by the Soviet Extra-judicial interference by union politburo government officials, such as Imam Jomeh 14 Absence of civic institutions Complete removal of the private NGOs and private companies’ passive sector in the Soviet Union role 15 Merging the officers and Fully a state project Both the host and supervisor are parts supervisors of the government 16 Economic outlook on ecological Using the Amu Darya and the Syr Destroying the hydrological system by resources Darya as natural irrigation systems using the water resources 17 Rapid implementation of Making channels for 75% waste Changing the lake into a wetland by inaccurate engineering projects water constructing an Non-standard causeway 18 Ideological goals dominating Proven ability of communism in the Cultivation of “halal” apples instead of ecological concepts development of a bare desert “haram” grapes 19 Increase in agricultural lands Spreading 1 million ha of cotton 400% increase in agricultural lands without rules fields through desert lands 20 Incomplete cost–benefits Ignoring the price of natural water Ignoring the price of natural water in analysis in calculations of the project’s cost calculations of the project’s cost
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FIGURES
Figure 1: A simplified overview of the process whereby environmental aspects of totalitarianism are imposed on landscapes
Totalitarianism in Totalitarianism in cultural landscape natural landscape
Negation of individuality Negation of biodiversity
Impose massive unsustainable Quantity pivotal Projects on nature
Depreciation natural resources Simplification to economic Goods
Populism Rural-oriented
Needing people to get Freely abuses natural government rations resources
Failing EIA (Environmental Deactivation of civil society Impacts Assesment)
Growth at the expense of Externality nature
No Privacy No real protected safe zones
Figure 2: The main impacts of ideological totalitarian master plans on cultural landscapes and natural landscapes
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Figure 3: The location of Lake Urmia between the provinces of East Azerbaijan and West Azerbaijan in Iran
Figure 4: Water level changes in Lake Urmia, 1960–2016 (Source: Urmia Lake restoration program [Tajrishi] 2015)
Figure 5: Schematic overview of water level changes in Lake Urmia (Source: Urmia Lake restoration program [Tajrishi] 2015)
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Figure 6: Land use in the Lake Urmia basin, 1976 (Source: Sharif University of Technology Remote Sensing Research Center, Kamali and Youneszadeh Jalili 2015)
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Figure 7: Land use in the Lake Urmia basin in 2013, showing the area of agricultural land in the region had increased about 300% in the period 1976-2013 (Source: Sharif University of Technology Remote Sensing Research Center, Kamali and Youneszadeh Jalili 2015)
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Figure 8: Expansion of agricultural land in the Lake Urmia basin, 1979–2006
Figure 9: Fruit cultivation area in East Azerbaijan, 1974 Figure 10: Fruit cultivation area in West Azerbaijan, 1974
Figure 11: Fruit cultivation area in East Azerbaijan, 2004 Figure 12: Fruit cultivation area in West Azerbaijan, 2004
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Figure 13: Change in the cultivation pattern in Lake Urmia basin, 1974–2004
Figure 14: The main reasons for the drying up of Lake Urmia
Figure 15: Sustainable agriculture indicators in the Aral Sea basin and Lake Urmia basin
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Accepted 25 April 2018
Citation: Karami N. (2018). The Drying of Lake Urmia as a Case of the “Aralism” Concept in Totalitarian Systems. International Journal of Geography and Regional Planning 4(1): 043-063.
Copyright: © 2018 Karami N. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are cited.
The Drying of Lake Urmia as a Case of the “Aralism” Concept in Totalitarian Systems