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Phase 1A Regional Travel Model Update

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Phase 1A Regional Travel Model Update DOUGLAS COUNTY MASTER PLAN 2016 Douglas County Transportation Plan APPENDIX A Douglas County/Carson City Travel Demand Model Parsons APPENDIX A: DOUGLAS COUNTY/CARSON CITY TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL Douglas County/Carson City Travel Demand Model DRAFT REPORT 2016 Douglas County Transportation Plan Prepared by Parsons July 2016 Douglas County/Carson City Regional Travel Demand Model CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 1 2. DEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION ............................................................................. 4 Zone Structure ............................................................................................................... 4 Demographic Forecasting Needs .................................................................................. 4 Base Year (2014) Socioeconomic Data Summaries ..................................................... 5 3. HIGHWAY NETWORK ............................................................................................... 8 Network Development .................................................................................................. 8 Transportation Analysis Zones and Highway Geographic Database ........................... 8 Node Attributes ........................................................................................................... 10 Highway Network (.NET) Creation ............................................................................ 10 Turn Penalties Table ............................................................................................. 12 Base Year Network Road Classification............................................................... 12 Highway Skims ........................................................................................................... 14 4. TRIP GENERATION .................................................................................................. 15 Resident Model Set ..................................................................................................... 15 Overview ..................................................................................................................... 15 Socioeconomic Submodels ......................................................................................... 16 Year 2000 Census Data ......................................................................................... 16 Households by Household Size Disaggregation Submodel .................................. 17 Households by Income Group Disaggregation Model .......................................... 20 Estimating Joint Distributions of Households by Socioeconomic Strata ............. 22 Socioeconomic Model Application Summary ............................................................ 23 Trip Production Models .............................................................................................. 24 Home-Based Work Trip Production Model .......................................................... 24 Home-Based School Trip Production Model ........................................................ 24 Home-Based Shop Trip Production Model........................................................... 25 Home-Based Other Trip Production Model .......................................................... 26 Non-Home-Based Trip Production Model ............................................................ 26 Trip Attraction Models ............................................................................................... 27 Home-Based Work Trip Attraction Model ........................................................... 28 Home-Based School Trip Attraction Model ......................................................... 28 Home-Based Shop Trip Attraction Model ............................................................ 29 Home-Based Other Trip Attraction Model ........................................................... 29 Non-Home-Based Trip Attraction Model ............................................................. 29 Special Generator Trip Attraction Models ............................................................ 29 5. TRIP DISTRIBUTION ................................................................................................ 30 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 30 Gamma Function ......................................................................................................... 31 Source of Data............................................................................................................. 31 iii Douglas County/Carson City Regional Travel Demand Model Calibration Process ..................................................................................................... 31 Friction Factor Parameters .................................................................................... 32 Travel Time Comparison ...................................................................................... 33 Travel Time and Trip Length Frequency Distributions ........................................ 34 Trip Length Distribution Macro............................................................................ 40 6. MODE SPLIT .............................................................................................................. 42 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 42 Home-Based Auto Occupancy Models ....................................................................... 43 Home-Based Work Average Auto Occupancies................................................... 43 Home-Based School Average Auto Occupancies................................................. 44 Home-Based Shop Average Auto Occupancies ................................................... 44 Home-Based Other Average Auto Occupancies................................................... 44 Non-Home-Based Auto Occupancy Models .............................................................. 45 7. TRIP ASSIGNMENT .................................................................................................. 47 Production/Attraction to Origin/Destination and Time of Day Distribution .............. 47 Other Trips Matrix ...................................................................................................... 47 Traffic Assignment ..................................................................................................... 49 Cold Start Flows and VMT ................................................................................... 50 Feedback Looping ....................................................................................................... 50 Assignment Reports .............................................................................................. 50 Traffic Assignment Validation ................................................................................... 52 8. TRAVEL FORECAST MODEL APPLICATION ...................................................... 65 9. FUTURE FORECASTS .............................................................................................. 70 APPENDIX A: Input Files, Output Files, and Parameters APPENDIX B: 2014 Land Use Data APPENDIX C: Douglas County and Carson City Industries and Travel Demand Model Employment Category iv Douglas County/Carson City Regional Travel Demand Model LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1-1: Douglas County/Carson City Model Flow Chart (1 of 2) ............................... 2 Figure 2-1: Douglas County and Carson City Transportation Analysis Zone Map .......... 6 Figure 2-2: External Gateway Locations for the Travel Demand Model .......................... 7 Figure 3-1: Year 2014 Douglas County and Carson City Highway Network ................. 13 Figure 4-1: Household Size Disaggregation Submodel ................................................... 18 Figure 4-2: Income Group Disaggregation Submodel ..................................................... 22 Figure 5-1: Friction Factor Parameters—Home-Based Work ......................................... 32 Figure 5-2: Friction Factor Parameters—Other Trip Purposes........................................ 33 Figure 5-3. Home-based Work Travel Time Comparison ............................................... 34 Figure 5-4: Travel Time Frequency Distributions—Home-Based Work Trips ............... 35 Figure 5-5: Trip Length Frequency Distributions—Home-Based Work Trips ............... 35 Figure 5-6: Home-Based School Trips – Frequency Distribution ................................... 36 Figure 5-7: Home-Based Shop Trips – Frequency Distribution ...................................... 37 Figure 5-8: Home-Based Other Trips – Frequency Distribution ..................................... 38 Figure 5-9: Non-Home Based Trips – Frequency Distribution ....................................... 39 Figure 6-1: Non-Home-Based Average Auto Occupancy Calibration Data and Model . 46 Figure 7-1: Screenline Locations in Carson City ............................................................. 54 Figure 7-2: Screenline Locations in Douglas County ...................................................... 55 Figure 8-1: Daily Level of Service on Various Facilities ................................................ 68 Figure 8-2: Year 2014 Existing Daily Traffic Volumes .................................................. 69 Figure 9-1: Year
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