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Are You Staying? Are You Staying? A Study of In-movers to Northern Sweden and the Factors Influencing Migration and Duration of Stay Erika Andersson Spring Term 2017 Master’s Thesis in Human Geography, 30 ECTS Department of Geography and Economic History, Umeå University Supervisor: Erika Sandow ABSTRACT The distribution of the population has multiple implications on regional development and planning. In-migration is frequently seen as the only possible solution in order to rejuvenate the population and stimulate regional development in sparsely populated regions. A population increase results in greater tax revenues, meaning that local authorities can plan for their inhabitants and expenditures in a more sufficient way. In addition, certain professionals are needed in order to support essential local services such as schools and hospitals. Place marketing with the intention of attracting in-movers has become increasingly popular, especially for rural, sparsely populated Swedish municipalities. Still, the outcome from place marketing efforts are dubious and in addition, migration has a temporal aspect and individual migration propensity usually fluctuates over time. This begs the question – how long do in-movers stay? Is there potential for long lasting development in sparsely populated regions connected to in-movers or is it temporary? This study focuses on the duration of time until an in-mover re-migrates from Region 8 in northern Sweden and which socioeconomic and demographic factors that influences the out- migration. This is studied by applying an event history method with discrete-time logistic regressions. The study follows individuals in working age that moved to any of nine specified municipalities in Västerbotten and Norrbotten County, sometime between 2000 and 2011. Questions posed for the study is: i) On average, how long did people who moved to Region 8 between the years 2000-2011 stay in the region? ii) What are the socioeconomic and demographic factors that influence the out-migration from the region? iii) Do the influencing factors differ between women and men? The results show that the time perspective matters as the risk of moving out was highest in the initial years and that it declines with time. 30 % of the sampled in-movers had moved out again within the time of observation, and on average the in-movers stayed for nine years. The regression results indicated that the factors that had the greatest influence on the out- migration was unemployment, being between 20-26 years old, high education, having and unemployed partner, and having children below school age. Women had a slightly lower likelihood of moving out compared to men, and the most prominent influential factor to outmigration that varied between women and men was unemployment. Keywords: Internal migration; life course; duration of stay; gendered migration; event history analysis; sparsely populated; regional development ii Contents 1. Introduction 1 1.1. Aim and questions 2 2. Theoretical Framework and Previous Studies 3 2.1. Migration Behaviour – Triggers and Constraints 3 2.1.1. Life Course Theory 3 2.1.2. Labour Market Factors 5 2.1.3. Place Attachment 6 2.2. Duration of Stay 7 2.3. Internal Migration Flows in Sweden 7 2.4. Place Marketing, In-migration and Regional Development 8 3. Research Context: the Northern Inland 9 4. Method 12 4.1. Data and Variables 12 4.1.1. Geographical Delimitation 14 4.2. Event History Analysis 15 4.3. Description of the Duration Model and Study Design 15 4.4. Basic Concepts in Survival Analysis 18 4.4.1. Survival Function 18 4.4.2. Hazard Function 19 4.5. Model Diagnostics and Evaluation 19 4.6. Methodological Discussion 20 4.7. Ethical Considerations 21 5. Results 22 5.1. Descriptive Analysis 22 5.2. Regression Results 25 6. Discussion 27 7. Conclusion 31 8. References 33 Appendix 38 iii Table of Figures Figure 1. Region 8 and its nine municipalities, located in northern Sweden 10 Figure 2. Different types of censoring 17 Figure 3. Population development in Region 8 from year 1950-2015 22 Figure 4. Terminology and mathematical expressions 41 Figure 5. Output from Stata showing a description of the data and the out-move (failure) 42 Figure 6. Margins plot showing the interaction between outmigration and time (margins based on model 1) 42 Table of Tables Table 1. Number of inhabitants in the Region 8 municipalities, 1950-2015 23 Table 2. Characteristics of the sampled in-movers at the year of in-migration (t1) 23 Table 3. Results from the discrete-time logistic regressions of out-migration, odds ratios 26 Table 4. Description of the covariates included and the expected direction of correlation based on the theoretical framework and previous studies 38 Table 5. Description of the variable “high education”, and what SUN-codes it includes 40 Table 6. Description of employment sectors and included SNI-codes in each group 40 iv 1. Introduction Migration and human mobility is an issue of central importance when we want to understand the dynamics of societies and demographics (Smith & Kind, 2012). Internal migration, migration within a country, alters the demographic composition in cities, towns or regions in several ways. The internal migration flows in Sweden varies in different parts of the country, and while some places experience a population increase, others continuously struggle with negative net migration. In many countries, rural depopulation is a concern (Niedomysl & Amcoff, 2011) and Sweden is no exception. The urbanisation trend has been prominent since the 1950s and 85% of the Swedish population today lives in urban areas1 (SCB, 2015). The metropolitan regions of Stockholm, Gothenburg, and Malmö have the highest net migration in the country (SCB, 2010). The rapid population growth in cities and the southern part of the country has largely been sustained by a decrease in the population in northern Sweden (Lundholm, 2007). Today, the pace of urbanisation has decreased, and population growth in the metropolitan regions can no longer be said to be at the expense of rural or sparsely populated areas. Still, some regions struggle with both population decline and an ageing population, and have been doing so for decades. Due to the demographic structure (e.g. ageing population) in areas that has experienced a population decline for several decades, Niedomysl and Amcoff (2011) argue that natural population increase is not likely to occur. In this sense, in-migration can be seen as the only answer for rural rejuvenation. One important aspect regarding the distribution of the population is that it has various implications for regional development potential and planning. Local tax bases and demand for services are determined by economic growth and is influenced by the net migration (Lundberg, 2003). This means that if the average income increases in a region, the local authorities can easier finance and plan for their inhabitants and expenses. When it comes to the labour market, rural areas cannot compete with urban areas, as they tend to offer limited employment and career opportunities. Since people in working age need to be able to make a living, the labour market aspect is perhaps one of the main challenges with rural residency (Niedomysl & Amcoff, 2011). A common problem in rural and remote areas is the recruitment and retention of labour, particularly skilled labour (Carson, 2011). Attracting personnel for essential service sectors like healthcare and education is vital due to local human capital shortages (ibid.). The potential development that migrants can contribute to has gotten considerable attention from both international and national policy-makers (Piper, 2009). Migration is often viewed as part of the pursuit for economic growth and a possible solution to issues concerning demographic change and social cohesion (Geddes & Niemann, 2015). The question of how to achieve population growth is a political interest for sparsely populated regions that has experienced population decline for a longer time. The in-mover solution has gained interest in Swedish municipalities, which has resulted in an increase in marketing campaigns aimed at attracting in-movers, especially to rural regions (Niedomysl & Amcoff, 2011). 1 Note that the Swedish definition of an urban area is an area that has a minimum of 200 inhabitants and less than 200 meters between the houses (SCB, 2015). In other words, a rather wide definition of what is considered “urban”. 1 The geographical area in focus of this study is called Region 8, a region made up of nine2 sparsely populated municipalities in Västerbotten and Norrbotten counties in northern Sweden. The region has experienced population decline since the 1960s and has historically been dominated by primary and manufacturing sectors related to local natural resources. As other municipalities with similar regional development, demographic issues are high on the agenda. In late January 2017, Region 8 launched a website called “Move up North”, aimed at promoting a high quality environment to live and work in, in an attempt to increase regional growth and development. Still, previous research shows that the outcome and longevity of place marketing efforts are uncertain (Niedomysl, 2007). Suppose that place marketing campaigns and other attempts to attract in-movers are successful; retaining in-movers in a region is not something that is granted. Jensen and Pedersen (2007) argue that migration often is viewed as permanent, while in fact it tends to be temporary. Time is essential to consider when wanting to understand people’s migratory behaviour, as the propensity to move tend to change over time (Kley, 2011). Within geography and population studies the time perspective is reflected in the fact that a life course perspective frequently has been applied by scholars (see e.g. Fischer & Malmberg, 2001; Johansson, 2016). Yet, when it comes to studies regarding internal migration, mobility is rarely considered from the perspective of duration. Still, the longer an in-mover stay at a place, the greater the possible contribution to the local development is.
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