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Real-Time Data Assimilative Modeling on Georges Bank

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Real-Time Data Assimilative Modeling on Georges Bank REG UIAR ISSUE Real-Time Data Assimilative Modeling on Georges Bank Daniel R. Lynch, Christopher E. Naimie, Justin T. Ip, Craig V. Lewis Dartmouth College ° Hanover, New Hampshire USA Francisco E. Werner, Richard A. Luettich, Jr., Brian O. Blanton, John Quinlan University of North Carolina ° Chapel Hill, North Carolina USA Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr., James R. Ledwell, James Churchill, Valery Kosnyrev Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution ° Woods Hole, Massachusetts USA Cabell S. Davis, Scott M. Gallager, Carin J. Ashjian Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution • Woods Hole, Massachusetts USA R. Gregory Lough, James Manning National Marine Fisheries Service • Woods Hole, Massachusetts USA Charles N. Flagg Brookhaven National Laboratories • Upton, New York USA Charles G. Hannah Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Bedford Institute of Oceanography • Dartmouth, Nova Scotia Canada Robert C. Groman USGLOBEC NWAtlantic Program • Woods Hole, Massachusetts USA Gen~-al Circulation During StraUfled Season Abstract I ~ ~ ,.'-:'~--~t ~,.,'~,,,_~ ~ Real-time oceanic forecasts were constructed at sea i W.-9 qv ) J7 on Georges Bank during Spring 1999. Ship- and shore- based computations were combined to deliver daily 3- day forecasts to shipboard scientists for interpreting observations and planning operations. Data assimilated included acoustic Doppler current profiler velocities, drifter trajectories, and taxa-specific plankton observa- tions from a Video Plankton Recorder (VPR) system. Services provided included basic 3-D circulation forecasts, forecast positions of drifters, dye and zoo- 42° -- ~oe plankton, and the advective adjustment of observations to produce synoptic maps. The results indicate that real-time, at-sea data assimilative modeling can -'" provide valuable information services and can be deployed routinely, provided that networking among ships, instruments, and shore continues to improve. 40° ~~ This paper summarizes the real-time modeling expe- rience. Results of the larger effort including scientific data interpretation are being reported separately. et al., 1998). Oceanography • VoL 14 • No. 1/2001 65 Introduction 35.5 43 The USGLOBEC NWAtlantic program is focused on coupled bio- 35 logical/physical interactions on Georges Bank. The Bank is situated 42.5 34.5 at the shelf break at the border between Canada and the USA, and defines the seaward extent of the 34 Gulf of Maine (Figure 1). The 42 Georges Bank fishery has been a 33.5 commercially important resource == since European contact. The region 33 is a biogeographic transition zone "~ 41.5 q between cold, northern waters and 32.5 the more temperate environment to the southwest. It has been the sub- 41 32 ject of numerous oceanographic investigations throughout the cen- 31.5 tury, culminating most recently in the landmark volume edited by 40.5 Backus and Bourne (1987). II 31 GLOBEC investigations of the -70 -69.5 -69 -68.5 -68 -67.5 -67 -66.5 -66 -65.5 Bank began around 1990 with early Longitude (deg) planning documents and modeling studies (GLOBEC 1991, 1992). These early studies identified four target species for detailed studies: larval cod and haddock, and the 0.3 copepods Calanus finmarchicus and Pseudocalanus spp. The field effort began in 1994 with the juxtaposi- m tion of a) periodic broadscale sur- 50 veys of the Bank, sampling on a 0.2 regular pattern of roughly 30 sta- 1 tions within the 150 meter isobath; and b) single-year process-focused v observations. 100 Modeling activities during O 0.1 most of the program have focused on historical data and their scientif- ic interpretation. Among other 150 things, modeling studies have established climatological mean 0.001 rn s q physical fields and perturbations to 02ms 1 them and examined the impacts of these on the life history of specific 200 planktonic species and their inter- -0.1 actions. A large number of these 0 5 10 15 20 28 30 35 40 45 studies have used the climatologi- Horizontal Distance (KM) cal physics to explore key underly- ing hypotheses of the program. Figures 2 and 3 illustrate these cli- matological fields. Figure 2. Georges Bank hydrography and circulation, from the computed May-June climatology. In 1999, the final GLOBEC field Top: bottom salinity (psu) map illustrates the distribution of slope water and fresher shelf water. Bottom: mean subtidal circulation on a transect across the Northern Flank of Georges Bank. The fields program was devoted to detailed are sampled from the simulated climatology. Color bands: isotachs of along-bank speed (re~s). Vectors: scrutiny of cross-frontal exchange in-plane circulation; Contour lines: ot The transect is marked in the top panel. processes. The frontal regime on the 66 Oceanography • Vol. 14 • No. 1/2001 0.11 0.1 0.09 0.08 ~50 0.07 0.06 0.05 0 0.04 100 0.03 0.02 0.01 150 50 100 150 200 250 Horizontal Distance (KM) Figure 3. Tidally-averaged density (Gt contours) and vertical viscosity (colorbands, m2/s) over Georges Bank, from the computed May-June climatology. The transect is marked in Figure 2. The viscosity is calculated using level 2.5 turbulence closure and is primarily the result of bottom-generated turbulence due to tidal motion. bank is highly complex. On the South Flank, a sion, as described in Table 1. The real-time modeling shelf/slope front separates warm, salty slope water activity was appended to these. from cold, fresher shelf water. Near bottom, this front is typically located between the 70- and 100-meter iso- Hypotheses bath, with its surface expression further seaward. The The at-sea experience was viewed as a computation- bank top is completely mixed in all seasons by tidal tur- al "experiment" in itself. Three interrelated hypotheses bulence. In summer, a tidal-mixing front surrounds the were framed: central bank separating the well-mixed central region • A practical nowcast/forecast system can be from adjacent stratified waters. Rectification of strong constructed and delivered to shipboard scientists. tidal currents creates anticyclonic flow along the steep (Practical in this context means better than climatol- bank sides. On the North Flank, this circulation is ogy and fast); merged with the general cyclonic circulation of the Gulf • A data-assimilative hindcast can improve interpre- of Maine. The tidally-rectified flow and seasonal tidal- tation of necessarily sparse data; mixing fronts combine to create a partial recirculation • A real-time forecast can improve ocean sampling of around the bank, which is most intense in late summer. water, dye, and planktonic organisms. These features are expressed strongly in the computed It is important to recognize 1) that there are imperfec- climatology, Figures 2 and 3. Important disturbances of tions in all models, in all data, and in all sampling plans; these features include episodic wind events, invasion of and 2) that a theoretically optimal solution to ocean state Scotian Shelf water across the Northeast Channel, per- estimation and forecasting is infeasible today. The turbations of the shelf/slope front (see Figure 4), and emphasis of the project has therefore been on developing the interaction of Gulf Stream rings with the South a practical procedure, which can be implemented in Flank features. Taken together, we have a partly closed today's technology, and defining its limits. gyre surrounding the bank with multiple and complex controlling dynamics. Nested Domains The complexity of these cross-frontal processes There are three nested computational domains, rep- demanded the greatest realism possi- resenting bank, shelf, and oceanic ble, both in interpreting observations scale calculations. The oceanic and in hindsight as well as at-sea, in order •.. it was decided bank meshes are shown in Figure 6. to better inform the observational to take the models and We focused our real-time efforts on scientists about the system they were the modelers to sea, the limited-area bank-scale domain. This is terminated at the 150 meter measuring. Accordingly, it was decid- and to make the best possible ed to take the models and the modelers isobath and includes most of the rou- to sea, and to make the best possible estimates of oceanic conditions fine survey stations and most other estimates of oceanic conditions in real- in real-time, blending all GLOBEC sampling. For the North time, blending all available data and available data and models• Flank dye release, the mesh was models. extended northward to better accom- Four GLOBEC cruises were identi- modate the local dynamics. fied for at-sea trials. Each had its own scientific mis- Resolution is of order 3 km on the bank top. Oceanography • VoL 14 • No. 1/2001 67 to specify wind-band barotropic pressure variations on TABLE I the bank-scale mesh boundaries. Participating cruises Distributed Processing R/V EDWIN LINK 9904, April 14-25 1999 Limited ship-to-shore bandwidth necessitated a The mission was to examine circulation, hydrography, and blend of ship- and shore-based computation. The shore ichthyoplankton distributions and transport in the South station at University of North Carolina (UNC) concen- Flank tidal front system.This was a first, exploratory cruise trated on gathering data products from the Internet and for the Real-Time Data Assimilation (RTDA) project. processing them for at-sea operations. Included in this task was the computation of the far-field oceanic R/V ENDEAVOR 323,324, May 4-June 8 1999 forecast and the extraction of boundary conditions :for These cruises were focused on cross-frontal exchange the limited-area forecast. The shipboard teams concen- processes.Three dye injection experiments were conduct- trated on gathering and processing in situ data; doing ed in the tidal mixing fronts of the South and North Flanks; the limited-area forecast; and providing forecast two on the South Flank, with one injection near-surface services to shipboard scientists. and the second in the pycnocline, and the third on the North Flank with a dye release in the pycnocline (Figure 5).
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