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2020 Student Housing Mid-Year Market Overview 2020 Student Housing Mid-Year Market Overview

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2020 Student Housing Mid-Year Market Overview 2020 Student Housing Mid-Year Market Overview 2020 STUDENT HOUSING MID-YEAR MARKET OVERVIEW 2020 STUDENT HOUSING MID-YEAR MARKET OVERVIEW 2 MOONTOWER AUSTIN, TX CONTENTS Student Housing Sales Volume 6 Buyer Profile 7 Seller Profile 8 Cap Rates 9 Pricing Metrics 10 Capital Markets 12 The Team 14 About Us 16 3 Newmark Knight Frank’s Student Housing group proudly presents the 2020 Student Housing Mid-Year Market Overview. The research and conclusions contained within this report are based on our detailed and committed tracking of relevant data metrics across the entire student housing industry. We strive to offer the best brokerage services in the industry and pride ourselves on seamlessly integrating best-in-class investment sales with debt and equity, offering clients unparalleled access to domestic and international capital sources. For more information on this report or details on our available listings, please feel free to contact our team. Student Housing Investment Sales Ryan Lang Vice Chairman T 512.637.1296 [email protected] Jack Brett Associate Director T 832.434.5575 [email protected] Ben Harkrider Transaction Manager T 512.637.1435 [email protected] Jeremy Borst Senior Financial Analyst T 512.637.1239 [email protected] Mallory Rodriguez Transaction Services Coordinator T 737.236.0356 [email protected] Debt & Structured Finance Trent Houchin Director T 512.637.1298 [email protected] Matt Greer Executive Managing Director T 512.637.1236 [email protected] NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK STUDENT HOUSING 2530 Walsh Tarlton Lane, Suite 200, Austin, TX 78746 T 512.342.8100 | F 512.637.1740 | www.ngkf.com 4 THE RIDGE CLEMSON CLEMSON, SC 5 2020 STUDENT HOUSING MID-YEAR MARKET OVERVIEW STUDENT HOUSING SALES VOLUME After a strong 2019, the student housing sector has shown resilience in 2020, 2020 YTD BROKER MARKET SHARE due to COVID-19. Predominately driven by transactions in the first two months (BROKER VOLUME MUST BE $90+MM YTD) of 2020, the student sector has seen $1.58 billion in investment activity through 2Q20–a sharp drop off compared to the $2.29 billion transacted through the Broker # Properties Share % same period in 2019. Despite the pandemic slowing investment activity, cap Newmark Knight Frank 9 32% rates have sustained near-record lows as sophisticated institutional, domestic and international capital sources seek scalable portfolios and quality one- CBRE 5 18% off acquisitions through a flight to quality. In spite of continued cap rate Berkadia 5 18% compression, student housing cap rates are still approximately 40 basis points higher when compared to conventional multifamily. Overall, the sector has Colliers International 5 18% benefited from substantial, and diverse, capital sources pursuing both core and Marcus & Millichap 4 14% Source: Real Capital Analytics Newmark Knight Frank represents value-add purpose-built assets that are within walking distance of Tier I institutions the majority of market share for throughout the country. As we move into the second half of 2020, the industry has held student housing transactions up extraordinarily well, reporting collections above 97 percent and pre-lease numbers in-line with 2019 velocity. While the core fundamentals of the industry remain strong, through 2Q20. short-term uncertainty specific to university openings, on-campus logistics and the de- densification of on-campus housing remain. STUDENT HOUSING SALES VOLUME Price (in billions) vs. Properties (based on assets priced $2.5mm+) 12.0 140 11.0 10.0 120 9.0 100 8.0 7.0 80 6.0 5.0 60 4.0 40 3.0 2.0 20 1.0 0.0 0 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 Quarterly Totals Properties Traded Source: Real Capital Analytics 6 While 1Q20 got off to a strong start, the pandemic substantially slowed transaction activity beginning in March. As the second quarter of 2020 began, priorities shifted from new acquisitions to focused internal operations centered on asset management and creating initiatives to safely, and efficiently, house residents throughout purpose-built accommodations across the country. In addition, university plans have remained fluid while creating strategies for returning students to campus, finalizing on-campus scheduling logistics and determining the appropriate number of students to house on-campus. For example, Washington State University will have approximately 1,400 students seek alternative housing for Fall 2020, the College of Charleston announced 800 students will be shifting to off-campus housing and LSU is allowing Freshmen to live off-campus, to name a few. The vast majority of universities will be lowering their on-campus capacity for the fall of 2020, and perhaps beyond, to the point of off-campus housing demand far exceeding the supply that is available in many submarkets. Despite headlines to the contrary, it has become clear that, as pre-leasing As we move into the second half of 2020, velocity increases and leasing is fulfilled over the coming months, student housing will be one of the stronger performing asset classes across the real the industry has held up extraordinarily estate spectrum. Sensing that short-term ambiguity will subside as soon as well, reporting collections above 97 the industry provides certainty of performance in September, investor appetite is tremendously strong. Additionally, pent-up demand for dispositions and percent and pre-lease numbers in-line acquisitions that didn’t occur in the spring and investors selling upon the with 2019 velocity. commencement of the 2020-2021 academic year, could lead to an extremely busy fourth quarter in the student housing sector. BUYER PROFILE Investment in student housing has consistently offered long-term stability, 2020 YTD BUYER PROFILE attractive risk-adjusted returns and safe diversification in comparison to other asset classes. The student housing industry was proven to be recession- resilient in 2008 and appears to be pandemic-resilient in 2020. Enrollment gains exceeded 6 percent during the Great Recession and enrollment spikes have been realized through each recession dating back to the 1970s. Maintaining User/other the trend from recent years, private capital leads the field by accounting for 7% 53.5 percent of acquisitions and more than $840 million in transaction volume through the first half of 2020. Despite the pandemic, the private sector posted an impressive number when compared to the $1.1 billion transacted through Cross-Border the first half of 2019. Institutional capital largely focused on dispositions in 37% 1Q20, accounting for approximately $36 million in acquisitions through 2Q20. Additionally, foreign capital buyers have been formidable in 2020, accounting for $589.9 million of acquisitions, or 37.5 percent of all transactions year-to- date. Interestingly, foreign capital purchases have far exceeded their pace from 2019, regardless of overall volume for the sector being down year-over- year through 2Q20. Through the first half of 2019, foreign capital accounted for just $353.5 million, or 15.3 percent of all transactions. Many foreign Private capital buyers have viewed the pandemic as a buying opportunity within a 54% sector that has been closely coveted over the past several years. If the current Inst'l/Eq Fund 2Q20 market share percentage for foreign capital holds, it will be the highest 2% on record since overseas investment became well established within the sector in 2017. Despite a slowdown in transactions, due to COVID-19, 2020 is showing continued diversification of capital providers actively entering and Source: Real Capital Analytics acquiring within the sector. 7 2020 STUDENT HOUSING MID-YEAR MARKET OVERVIEW 2020 YTD SELLER PROFILE SELLER PROFILE Cross- Border 0.0% Institutional and private capital groups have continued to lead the disposition effort throughout the first six months of 2020. In an ongoing trend over the last five years, favorable cap rates for core, new construction product has provided an accretive environment for sellers of private and institutionally owned purpose-built student housing. To date, institutional sellers have moved atop the seller profile with more than $853 million sold through 2Q20, Private 34% accounting for nearly 56.5 percent of total market share. This is a substantial move from 2019, when institutional capital accounted for just $28.4 million of total dispositions through the first half of 2019. Private capital’s market share of 33.8 percent equates to more than $531 million in 2020 dispositions, Inst'l/Eq Fund compared to $1.4 billion and 62.5 percent market share over the same period 56% in 2019. Additionally, REITs have sold just one large asset accounting for 9.8 Listed/REITs 10% percent of total market share in 2020. As we move into the second half of 2020, transaction activity is expected to be robust, with multiple portfolio opportunities and sizeable single-asset dispositions. For a reference point, as of July 2020, Newmark Knight Frank has more than $2 billion exclusively listed that is anticipated to close in 4Q20 and 1Q21. Source: Real Capital Analytics UNION ON 5TH PITTSBURGH, PA 8 THE FLATS AND THE SUITES WICHITA, KS CAP RATES Cap rate compression has been the new normal and 2020 has been no exception. Despite limited transactions due to COVID-19, the consistent pursuit of the sector The student housing sector has proven from institutional, domestic and international investment funds illustrates investor confidence in the recession and pandemic-resilient asset class. Throughout the first it is a mainstay among product types half of 2020, cap rates averaged 5.7 percent, in line with historical lows observed in 2019. Additionally, many core and core-plus assets have traded at sub-5 percent and, perhaps, the most attractive cap rates, particularly when located within walking distance to Tier I universities. with cap rates trading approximately The student housing sector has proven it is a mainstay among product types and, perhaps, the most attractive with cap rates trading approximately 40 basis 40 basis points wider than its points wider than its conventional multifamily counterpart.
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