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Executive Counsel Limited Political Risk Report No.4: Post 2016 Legislative Council Election Debrief

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Executive Counsel Limited Political Risk Report No.4: Post 2016 Legislative Council Election Debrief Executive Counsel Limited Political Risk Report No.4: Post 2016 Legislative Council Election DeBrief The 6th Legislative Council Makeup and Comparison with the 5th Legislative Council Pro-Beijing Pan-Democrats (24,-3) Localists/Self Determination (40,-2) (6,+5) Democratic Alliance for the Democratic Party (7,+1) Youngspiration (2, +2) Betterment and Progress of Hong Civic Party (6, +/-0) Civic Passion (1, +1) Kong (12, -1) Prof. Commons (2, +/-0) Demosisto (1, +1) Business & Professional Alliance (7, Labour Party (1, -3) Independent (2,+2) +/-0) People Power (1, -1) Proletariat Political Institute (0, -1) Federation of Trade Union (5, -1) League of Soc. Dem. (1, +/-0) Liberal Party (4, -1) Neighbourhood and Workers New People Party (3，+1) Services Centre (1,+/-0) New Forum (1) Independents (5, +2) The Federation of HK and Kowloon Association for Democracy and Labour Unions (1) People’s Livelihood (0, -1) Independents (7,+/-0) Neo Democrats (0, -1) Total Vote : 871,016 (40%) Total Vote : 775,578 (35%) Total Vote: 409,025 (19%) Legend: (Total Seats, Change (+/-)) Executive Counsel Limited’s Analysis Key Features • 2,202,283 votes casted, turnout rate 58.58% (+5%) • DAB is still the largest party in the Council (12 seats) , followed by Democratic Party and BPA (both 7 seats). • Average age of legislators decreases from 54 to 46.6 years old; Nathan Law of Demosisto (aged 23) becomes the youngest legislator in Hong Kong history, and will turn 54 in 2047 Localist Candidates From the overall vote gain, localist and pro-self-determination parties proved our comments in Harbour Times* that they are not simply a political quirk. It will be interesting if they can develop their localism doctrine to a wider political and social perspective once in Legislative Council. Executive Counsel previously warned of the split of anti-Beijing vote between Localist and Pan- Democrats could result in more Pro-Beijing seats being won. The prediction has been partially realised. The camp broke the steady vote ratio of 6:4 between Pan-Democrats and Pro-Beijing, respectively. However, in most cases Pan-Democrats still won by a small margin, keeping Pan-Democrats one-third blocking minority in the Council intact. Never Trust the Polls As expected there was a significant discrepancy between polls and the final result. We would attribute this to the phenomenon where votes were strategically moved from popular candidates to those with similar stances to ensure they met the minimum rate to be elected. For instance, Tanya Chan of Civic Party led the polls from the beginning but she ended up being candidate elected with a lowest vote. Social Media: The Kingmaker The election was a crucial test for younger candidates to convert their online support into votes at the polls. We observed that candidates with sizeable online platform can mobilise as many votes as other big parties, localists/Self Determination parties taking 19% of vote,showing online political momentum can overcome shortage of material resources. Another noteworthy feature was the widespread of Facebook Live campaigning. It was widely adopted as an effective alternative to televised or broadcasted debate, which spares only few minutes of airtime for each candidate. But the importance of conventional channels must not be underestimated as it was still a major source of information for elder voters. Great Ground Games Not a surprise that practically all the Pro-Beijing parties demonstrated excellent ground games in all constituencies, except Liberal Party. As we told Harbour Times*, fierce competition might impede Pan Democrats from effectively securing their seats. Although the Pan-Democrats withdrew six lists one day before election with calls to strategically vote for other stronger Pan Democrats, it was proven to be too late to save small Pan-Democratic parties. Labour lost 3 out of 4 seats; ADPL and Neo-Democrats lost their only seat; People Power lost 1 - all tough and painful lessons. Intergenerational Issues Traditional parties all securely passed the torch to their young party talents, including Civic Party, Democratic Party and DAB etc. There are also six young legislators from neither the two mainstream political spectrums, all of which are social movement veterans and amateurs in politics. The ‘rule book’ of Council will be rewritten – some traditions might be forgotten, while some practices might be normalised. CE Election The Chief Executive election will be held on 26 March 2017. Chief Executive CY Leung told the press on 6th September that “It is obvious that candidates opposing his second term failed” although he said he had no re-election plan at the moment. But the significant public endorsement for localists, demanding greater autonomy and even to explore possibilities of independence, may well harm any re-election hopes. What’s Next? Jasper Tsang will soon retire from president of the Legislative Council. The role will be fiercely fought. Andrew Leung of BPA (Industrial (First) Constituency) is leading the legislative council presidential race. However, there might be resistance from Pan Democrats. Democratic Party warned that Pro-Beijing must coordinate with Pan-Democrats in matter of presidencies of Legislative Council and other of its committee, or else it will be seen as “a declaration of war for the whole four-year term”. Meanwhile James To of Democratic Party recommended Pro Beijing independent legislator Paul Tse (Kowloon East Constituency), with support from Liberal Party. But in order not to compromise Pro-Beijing camp’s relatively weaker advantage in geographical constituencies round voting, it is likely that they will recommend to Pan-Democrats a legislator from functional constituencies to be the next Legislative Council president. Conclusions There was surprise defeat of some long-serving opposition leaders, but it would be too optimistic to suggest a smoother governance in the future. With inexperienced and more radical characters in the new term of Legislative Council, it seems that the current stagnant and adversarial nature of the Council, which serves neither the public nor the business community, will not be eradicated in the foreseeable future. No matter who will take the Chief Executive office in 2017, government will need to invest more effort to lobby the Council to support its agenda in face of a stronger and fragmented opposition. It will be crucial to encourage certain degree of cooperation between Pan-Democrats and Pro-Beijing parties as the localist shall spare the former from keeping the check-and-balance all the time. The business community should keep a keen eye on how far the tension between administration and legislature will extend, as such will determine Beijing’s policy to Hong Kong, especially Post-2047 arrangements, and the government’s capacity in delivering a prosperous future. *Prepare for upsets in LegCo elections: Timothy Peirson-Smith, Harbour Times, 30 August 2016 (http://harbourtimes.com/2016/08/30/prepare-for-upsets-in-legco-elections-timothy-peirson-smith/) For enquiries, please contact Timothy J. Peirson-Smith, Managing Director of Executive Counsel Limited, via email at [email protected] or by phone on +852 2550 0879. .
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