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Upcoming Federal By-Elections Barton Deakin Brief: Upcoming Federal By-Elections 24 May 2018 Today, May 24 2018, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, the Hon Tony Smith, has announced that the five by-elections occurring in Braddon, Fremantle, Longman, Perth, and Mayo will be held on Saturday July 28. Four of the five by-elections have been triggered by the the High Court’s ruling on Labor Senator Katy Gallagher. The High Court ruled that she had not taken reasonable steps to renounce her British citizenship, violating s 44(i) of the Constitution. The Perth by-election is not part of the citizenship question with Labor member Tim Hammond resigning his position citing family commitments. The seats of Braddon, Fremantle, Longman and Perth are held by Labor. The seat of Mayo is held by former member of the Nick Xenophon Team turned Centre Alliance, Rebekha Sharkie. A Government has not won a seat held by the opposition since 1911. This Barton Deakin Brief provides an overview of the reasoning behind the date, the candidates running in each of the by-elections and the votes in those seats at the 2016 election. Background • The date announced by the Speaker means that there will be a 79 day gap between the resignations and by-elections. The Speaker gave the following reasons for the decision: o Allow the Australian Electoral Commission to make changes to regulation; o Give candidates time to prepare for nomination given the new regulations; and o Ensure the by-elections were not held in the school holidays • New Regulations will now require all nominees to indicate that they are not a dual citizen, bankrupt, a public servant, interested in an agreement with the public service or ever convicted of a crime with a jail term of a year or more. • The recent federal budget, economic management, priorities in health and education, boarder security, aged-care, and jobs will be the overarching issues debated during the by-election but each electorate had special local concerns that which will arise during the campaign. Braddon • Braddon is Tasmania’s most marginal electorate and located in the state’s north-west; • In the 2016 federal election Justine Keay of the Labor Party replaced the Liberal member Brett Whiteley who had held the seat for one term; • Justine Keay will recontest the seat, having now renounced her British citizenship. Results at the Last Election Barton Deakin Pty. Ltd. Suite 17, Level 2, 16 National Cct, Barton, ACT, 2600. T: +61 2 6108 4535 www.bartondeakin.com ACN 140 067 287. An STW Group Company. SYDNEY/MELBOURNE/CANBERRA/BRISBANE/PERTH/WELLINGTON/HOBART/DARWIN % of Primary Vote Margin (%) Justine Keay (ALP) 40.0 2.2 Brett Whiteley (LNP) 41.5 - LNP candidate: Brett Whiteley • Having lost the seat in the 2016 election, Mr Whiteley will recontest the seat; • Mr Whiteley is campaigning on a promise of local jobs and support for the mining industry. Fremantle • The seat of Fremantle is a marginal seat located south of Perth; • Fremantle has been a Labor held seat for most of its history with high-profile Labor members including former Prime Minister John Curtin and Kim Beazley senior; • Labor’s hold on the seat is threatened by the Greens’ increasing popularity in the area. • Josh Wilson, the incumbent member, will recontest the seat; • The Greens have chosen Dorinda Cox to contest the election, campaigning on the issues of inequality, climate change and small business; • The Liberal party will not contest the seat at the by-election. Results at the Last election % of Primary Vote Margin (%) Josh Wilson (ALP) 41.0 7.5 Pierrette Kelly (LNP) 36.9 - Kate Davis (GRN) 17.7 - Perth • The seat of Perth is a marginal seat in the inner suburbs of Western Australia. • Perth has predominately been a Labor seat except for the period 1975 to 1980. • Tim Hammond is resigning the seat due to family commitments and will not recontest the seat. Instead WA Labor secretary Patrick Gorman has been named as the Labor candidate • Caroline Perks will contest the seat on behalf of the Greens; • At the time of publication, the Liberal Party has chosen not to contest the seat. Results at the Last election % of Primary vote Margin (%) Tim Hammond (ALP) 37.4 3.3 Jeremy Quinn (LNP) 42.3 - Tim Clifford (GRN) 17.1 - 2 Longman • Longman is a predominantly urban electorate between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast; • Longman is one of the most marginal seats in the nation with Labor winning at the last election on a margin of only 0.8%; • Susan Lamb will recontest the seat; • The Liberal party have endorsed Trevor Ruthenburg. % of Primary Vote Margin (%) Susan Lamb (ALP) 35.4 0.8 Wyatt Roy (LNP) 39.0 - LNP Candidate: Trevor Ruthenburg • Mr Ruthenburg was a MP in the former Newman State Government in Queensland; • He will campaign on local issues of crime and congestion. Mayo • Mayo is in the Adelaide Hills and had previously been a safe Liberal seat, before Xenophon Team candidate Rebekah Sharkie won the seat in the 2016 election; • Rebekah Sharkie will recontest the seat as part of the Centre Alliance; • Labor has not yet announced a candidate for Mayo; • The Greens have endorsed aboriginal elder Major ‘Moggy’ Sumner as their candidate; • Georgina Downer, daughter of former Liberal Leader and Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, was endorsed unopposed by the Liberals. Results in the last election % of Primary Vote Margin (%) Rebekah Sharkie (NXT) 34.9 5% Jamie Briggs (LNP) 37.9 - Glen Dallimore (GRN) 13.5 - LNP candidate: Georgina Downer • Ms Downer’s farther held the seat for 24 years until his retirement in 2008 • She was a research fellow at the Institute for Public Affairs and formerly sought candidacy for the Victorian seat of Goldstein. • Ms Downer will be campaigning on issues of road safety, healthcare and improved mobile networks 3 For more information, please contact David Alexander on +61 457 400 524 or Elizabeth Burrows on +61 458 376 089. To stay up to date with the affairs of Coalition Governments and Oppositions around Australia, you can follow Barton Deakin on Twitter and LinkedIn. 4 .
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