AFRICA Briefing Nairobi/Brussels, 8 July 2003 DECISION TIME IN ZIMBABWE I. OVERVIEW In an article published in The New York Times in advance of the Bush visit, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said of President Mugabe and his Change is in the air in Zimbabwe. Its citizens no regime, “their time has come and gone”,1and that longer talk about whether it will come, but rather new leadership respectful of human rights and the when. All acknowledge, however, that the road will rule of law was needed. South Africa is working to be dangerous, possibly violent. South Africa is the resolve the Zimbabwe crisis since it is experiencing single country with ability to help its neighbour many of its consequences but Deputy Foreign through the roughest patches if it is willing to engage Minister Aziz Pahad, whose efforts, like those of with sufficient determination to persuade the President Mbeki, have been mostly low key and government of President Robert Mugabe and his behind the scenes, said cooly, “I hope we can reach ruling ZANU-PF party to sit down with their a common approach on Zimbabwe. If there is challenger, the Movement for Democratic Change another route, the Americans must put it on the (MDC), and then facilitate and mediate negotiations table”.2 for a transitional government and new elections. A range of other international players need to play There is indeed another route. Getting ZANU-PF supporting roles, including the EU, the Southern and the MDC to the table for unconditional Africa Development Commission (SADC), the negotiations should be at the top of the agenda African Union (AU), and the Commonwealth, but when the U.S. and South African Presidents meet. most directly and prominently the U.S. The visit of President Bush to South Africa on 8 July is a unique What is needed is a clear blueprint that spells out opportunity to chart action that could lead to a and builds consensus around: negotiated solution and an end to the crisis. ! the end objective: a legitimate, internationally Zimbabwe’s internal situation has continued to and domestically supported government in worsen, producing increasingly destabilising effects Harare that is determined by the will of the in southern Africa through refugees and economic Zimbabwean people in a free and fair election; chaos and damaging the entire continent’s efforts to ! the facilitation: South Africa must be the establish new political and trade relations with the rest primary foreign actor that sits down with the of the world through the NEPAD initiative. Inside the two sides, helps them find the necessary country everyone is suffering – the opposition and its compromises and applies its considerable supporters from political repression and the collapse influence to get them to accept those of the economy, but even ZANU-PF leaders whose compromises, but the supportive roles of opportunities to plunder a steadily deteriorating state others in the wider international community, are disappearing – and everyone wants change. including most directly and prominently the U.S., are essential and need to be well planned Brutal state-sponsored violence is no longer sufficient and executed; to produce compliance by the civilian population. Instead, civil disobedience is increasing. Successful mass action in the form of stay-aways from work 1 orchestrated by the trade unions, civil society groups, Colin Powell, “Freeing a Nation from a Tyrant’s Grip”, and the MDC in March, April and June further The New York Times, 24 June 2003. 2 Cape Times (South Africa), “Pahad Calls on U.S. to Show undermined the regime’s legitimacy and resuscitated its Hand in Financing a Solution for the Zimbabwe Crisis”, the opposition. 30 June 2003. Decision Time in Zimbabwe ICG Africa Briefing, 8 July 2003 Page 2 5 ! the participants: ZANU-PF and the MDC, of 15 per cent in 2003. The unemployment rate is with significant input from other elements of between 60 and 80 per cent, while inflation is Zimbabwean civil society to widen the process anticipated to continue to advance from its current and build stakeholder support; and annual rate of 228 per cent.6 ! the process: direct negotiations starting as soon The country is at the brink of famine due to as possible, using an agenda focused on the regional drought, the negative effects of a poorly establishment of the rule of law, the interim planned and implemented land reform program and administration, and the timetable for elections. an insistence on maintaining control of the Grain A process of negotiations is the only way out of a Marketing Board’s (GMB) importation and stalemate that otherwise promises to become distribution of maize meal. Due to the shortages, increasingly violent and deadly but it will not be easy. the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) distributed 60 metric tons of food to 4.7 million President Mugabe’s strategy may well be to goad the 7 MDC into violent protest so that he can crush it much Zimbabweans in March 2003 alone. The WFP estimates that 7.2 million Zimbabweans, well over as he did an earlier competing party, ZAPU, which he 8 forced into a deceptively named government of half the population, will need food aid this year. national unity during the 1980s and destroyed Minister of Labour and Social Welfare July Moyo following the massacres in Matabeleland. South has made a formal request for assistance from the Africa and Nigeria already attempted to facilitate WFP. As a result, the organisation is re-examining negotiations in 2002, after the fraudulent Mugabe re- Zimbabwe’s needs and will release a report soon. election.3 The new effort can benefit from the wider Malnutrition also lessens the ability of infected awareness on both sides that the status quo is Zimbabweans to fight the AIDS pandemic. untenable but it will also require a tougher, more Prospects for a better harvest seem to be quickly consequential approach from both South Africa and disappearing. The general economic crisis and others in the international community. foreign currency shortage have left many farmers If that is forthcoming, there are indications that unable to buy spare parts for farm machinery, and President Mugabe may be prepared to step aside the fuel shortage delays or halts the transport of provided he gets adequate assurances of personal many agricultural necessities. Zimbabwe has a safety and respect. Over the past few months, he has demand for about 400,000 metric tons (mt.) of wheat annually. Only 230,000 mt. were harvested dropped several hints that he has finished the job of 9 decolonisation in Zimbabwe and is thus ready to in 2002 due to problems in the agricultural sector. retire. Factionalism in ZANU-PF is intensifying in This year’s winter wheat harvest is projected to be anticipation of a possible succession plan. even smaller. To reap a successful 2003/2004 harvest, agricultural preparations should have II. THE CRISIS DEEPENS begun in April such as ground preparation and purchase and use of seed and fertilizer. Reportedly this has not happened, and Zimbabwe, which will also likely need to import one million mt. of maize A. THE DETERIORATING ECONOMY Once the second richest country in sub-Saharan 5 Africa, Zimbabwe has seen its GDP decline 27 per The Economist Intelligence Unit, “Country Watch List: cent in three years,4 and it can expect a further drop Zimbabwe – Bleaker by the Day”, 16 June 2003. The massive protest campaigns alone pursuant to which large numbers of Zimbabweans have stayed away from work for several days at a time and which are discussed below are estimated to have been responsible for a decline in GDP of 3 For discussion of that earlier effort see ICG Africa Report 2 to 3 per cent in the first half of 2003. No. 47, Zimbabwe: The Politics of National Liberation and 6 “BBC, “Zimbabwe Economy Woes Spread”, 21 May International Division, 17 October 2002, and ICG Africa 2003 and ICG interviews. Report No. 60, Zimbabwe: Danger and Opportunity, 10 7 UN World Food Programme, “The Hunger Crisis in March 2003. Africa”, 2003. 4 BBC, “Zimbabwe Economy Woes Spread”, 21 May 8 Ibid. 2003. 9 IRIN, 22 May 2003. Decision Time in Zimbabwe ICG Africa Briefing, 8 July 2003 Page 3 this year, faces another poor harvest and food Zimbabwe has said that it will issue a new Z$1000 shortage in 2004.10 note later this year (valued at no more than U.S.$0.50 at the parallel rate), to ease printing The fuel situation throughout the country continues to costs.15 be desperate. The wait in many queues can stretch over days. In early May the shortage hit vehicles Meanwhile, Zimbabwe is also in trouble with the operated by the city of Harare. Ambulances stopped International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has running briefly, and fire engines, garbage trucks and suspended its voting rights due to failure to make other municipal vehicles were disrupted as well. payments.16 Zimbabwe has failed to come through Harare’s government soon began rationing fuel to on promised payments of U.S.$1.5 million every non-essential vehicles.11 The airline industry is three months against a total debt of U.S.$223.8 affected as well. To prevent the grounding of flights, million. Fund officials were encouraged by some Air Zimbabwe sent some planes to refuel in Zambia.12 macro-economic decisions made by the Amos Midzi, Minister for Energy and Power government including devaluing the fixed exchange Development, has publicly denied that another rate from Z$55:$U.S.1 to Z$824:U.S.$1.17 increase in fuel prices is imminent but there has been However, improvements still need to be made in no improvement in the supply.13 maximising the use of foreign exchange, improving agricultural policies and building relations with Energy imports also continue to be hampered by a bilateral donors.