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Security in Mexico: Implications for U.S. Policy Options THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY around the world. 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RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Security in Mexico Implications for U.S. Policy Options Agnes Gereben Schaefer, Benjamin Bahney, K. Jack Riley C O R P O R A T I O N This monograph results from the RAND Corporation's continuing program of self-initiated research. Support for such research is provided, in part, by the generosity of RAND's donors and by the fees earned on client- funded research. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Schaefer, Agnes Gereben. Security in Mexico : implications for U.S. policy options / Agnes Gereben Schaefer, Benjamin Bahney, K. Jack Riley. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4719-9 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. United States—Foreign relations—Mexico. 2. Mexico—Foreign relations— United States. 3. National security—United States. 4. Border security—United States. 5. Internal security—Mexico. 6. Drug traffic—Mexico. 7. Drug traffic— Prevention—International cooperation. 8. Violence—Mexico. I. Bahney, Benjamin. II. Riley, Kevin Jack, 1964– III. Title. JZ1520.A57M6 2009 355'.033072—dc22 2009014949 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover photo courtesy ShutterStock Images (© Copyright Frontpage) © Copyright 2009 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/permissions.html). Published 2009 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface Violence in Mexico has spiked over the past four years and is increas- ingly affecting the United States. In response, both the Mexican gov- ernment and the U.S. government are searching for ways to improve security in Mexico. This monograph examines the security situation in Mexico and assesses its impact on the United States. In addition, it outlines a number of policy options that the United States can consider in its efforts to assist the Mexican government in improving internal security in Mexico. This monograph should be of interest to U.S. and Mexican policymakers and analysts involved in efforts to improve security policy in Mexico, as well as to those interested in security reform in general. The multidisciplinary project team of researchers brought to the study an array of expertise in security policy, international relations, and eco- nomics, as well as Spanish language skills. The study was a companion to a larger RAND study that examined a range of social and economic issues in Mexico. This monograph results from the RAND Corpora- tion’s continuing program of self-initiated research. Support for such research is provided, in part, by the generosity of RAND’s donors and by the fees earned on client-funded research. Readers of this monograph may also find the following RAND publications on security sector reform to be of interest: • Establishing Law and Order After Conflict, by Seth G. Jones, Jeremy M. Wilson, Andrew Rathmell, and K. Jack Riley (MG-374-RC) iii iv Security in Mexico: Implications for U.S. Policy Options • Making Liberia Safe: Transformation of the National Security Sector, by David C. Gompert, Olga Oliker, Brooke Stearns Lawson, Keith Crane, and K. Jack Riley (MG-529-OSD) • U.S. Policy Options for Iraq: A Reassessment, by Olga Oliker, Keith Crane, Audra K. Grant, Terrence K. Kelly, Andrew Rathmell, and David Brannan (MG-613-AF) • Clean, Lean, and Able: A Strategy for Defense Development, by David C. Gompert, Olga Oliker, and Anga R. Timilsina (OP-101). Questions or comments about this monograph are welcome and should be directed to the project leaders: Agnes Gereben Schaefer K. Jack Riley RAND Corporation RAND Corporation 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600 Pittsburgh, PA 15213 Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (412) 683-2300 x4488 (412) 683-2300 x4956 [email protected] [email protected] More information about RAND is available at www.rand.org. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Tables .............................................................................. xi Summary .........................................................................xiii Acknowledgments ............................................................. xxv Abbreviations ..................................................................xxvii CHaptER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Need for This Study ................................................................ 1 The Deteriorating Security Situation in Mexico ............................. 1 The Importance of U.S.-Mexico Relations .................................... 6 Defining the Future of U.S.-Mexico Relations ............................... 7 Methodology ....................................................................... 8 Data Sources and Method of Analysis ........................................ 9 Organization of This Monograph ...............................................10 CHaptER TWO Assessment of the Current Security Situation in Mexico ................13 Mexico’s Security Structure ......................................................15 The Federal Security Structure ................................................15 Scale of the Policing Effort in Mexico ........................................17 Little Coordination Among Federal, State, and Local Security Forces .............................................................18 Public Distrust of Mexican Security Institutions and Security Forces ............................................................ 20 v vi Security in Mexico: Implications for U.S. Policy Options Security in Three U.S. Priority Areas .......................................... 20 Organized Crime ...............................................................21 Illegal Migration and Human Trafficking ...................................25 Terrorism and Rebel Insurgencies............................................ 26 Increased Domestic Crime ...................................................... 28 CHaptER THREE The Mexican Government’s Response .......................................31 Recent Actions and Federal Responses .........................................31 Organized Crime .............................................................. 34 Illegal Migration and Human Trafficking ...................................37 Terrorism and Rebel Insurgencies............................................ 38 What Mexico Is Doing at the State and Local Levels ........................39 Police Corruption ...............................................................39 Transnational Gangs (Maras)..................................................41 Judicial Reform at the State Level ............................................41 CHaptER FOUR Impact on the United States and the U.S. Government’s Response ....45 Impact on the United States .....................................................45 Overview of
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